Rodgers, product of system?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by LZoeller12, Mar 6, 2005.

  1. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Does anybody else think that Aaron Rodgers is just a product of a good system. If Jeff Tedford wasn't a brilliant offensive mind, would he even be a first day pick?

    Sure he had a great JC career, but so did I, and many others. I don't think he is as good as people think, and doesn't even stack up against Kyle Boller. And look at him.

    What do you all think?
     
  2. fishypete

    fishypete FinHeaven Elite

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    Only the future will tell us. Some QB's look like all world ...and then their world crashes, once they play in the NFL.
     
  3. LIQUID24

    LIQUID24 hi

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    No.
    Yes.

    Did you play D-1 ball and lead a historically mediocre program to an 18-8 record (including 10-2 last year)?
    Uh, yeah he does. Boller sucked his first 3 years and he still only completed 53% of his passes as a senior. Rodgers completed 66% last year.
     
  4. fishypete

    fishypete FinHeaven Elite

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    Lets not forget he had a running back that ran for 1845 yds. That always helps a QB.
     
  5. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    I have no doubt that being in Tedford's system helped Rodgers. IMO certain sytems will improve a QB's comp. %. However, once you get over 65% you're damn accurate regardless of the system. Accuracy is one of the most important attributes a QB needs for NFL success. I have no doubt about Rodger's accuracy. He is light years ahead of Boller who had very questionable accuracy in the same system.
     
  6. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Look at talent. Boller blows him away.

    Look at the team, JJ Arrington rushed for 1800 yards. Boller never had that. Or a receiver, or an o-lineman.

    Look at that Cal defense. Top 5 in D-1.

    There were a lot of factors that had to do with Cal's turn around, and I don't think that Rodgers is necessarily the person who did it.

    Look at Tedford's track record. The qb's he's groomed, Joey Harrington? Come on.

    He's a product of the system!
     
  7. NaboCane

    NaboCane I'm on my comma

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    This question had some limited impetus before the combine, but not now.

    Rodgers is far and away the best pro prospect at QB in this year's draft, both in terms of physical tools and intangibles. That's not a knock on Alex Smith, but a proper assessment of the difference.
     
  8. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Don't get me worng guys. I am not arguing for Boller, he's just a good comparison. Had he played under Tedford for two years though, I think he'd be putting up those kind of numbers. Crossing patterns and slants, hitches, and 10 yard option routes aren't hard balls to throw.

    I just don't think that he is as good as everyone says he is.

    Watch next year's qb at Cal. Bet he has good numbers too. Whoever it is?
     
  9. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    The only thing Boller has over Rodgers is a stronger arm. There's alot more to QBing than that.
     
  10. LIQUID24

    LIQUID24 hi

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    Exactly. Accuracy, intagibles, mechanics, reading defenses....advantage Rodgers.
     
  11. NJL52

    NJL52 Seasoned Veteran

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    In my opinion, there is no quarterback in this draft worth a top 15 pick. Neither guy impressed me at all. I would die if we drafted either one.
     
  12. PackPhin

    PackPhin Well-Known Member

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    Kyle Orton is still the Don of the class. If he hadn't gotten hurt, he'd be far and away the lock for the #1 pick and there wouldn't be any groans about it. You'd laugh at the comparison of Alex Smith, a one year wonder, to Orton's 4 years of consistency. I guess things have a way of working themselves outs. You'll say I told you so



    But what do I know...
     
  13. LIQUID24

    LIQUID24 hi

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    I'm gonna go ahead and disagree...
     
  14. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Didn't Boller run a 4.5 forty in the combine.

    If you play under the same offense for two years, you learn the reads. It's that simple. What intangibles are we talking about?

    It's not his size, his speed, or his arm. What his completion percentage? His leadership?
     
  15. LIQUID24

    LIQUID24 hi

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    One more thing on Orton: I assume he's all healed up now. How do you explain his weak showing at the Senior Bowl? In the practices and the actual game. He can't even take a snap from center properly.
     
  16. Surferosa

    Surferosa Run to Daylight

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    Its a fair point. I like the guy a lot, but I can see why some people still have their doubts. Still, Smith has just as many questions about his play due to the system that HE played in (shotgun, weaker competition, etc).

    Point is, both players have some question marks despite being excellent prospects. FWIW, I personally like Rodgers more.
     
  17. PackPhin

    PackPhin Well-Known Member

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    LOL Orton showcased the strongest arm at the combine. Posting a 57.3 mph toss. His arm strenght was the only knock the so called "experts" had against him and he went out and proved them wrong.

    If I remember correctly, Byron Leftwich, and Drew Brees never went under center either in thier college days. There are many other's that played in the shotgun offense that turned out okay, but naming them all is a waste of time.

    Next question...
     
  18. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    The two most important things a QB needs are accuracy and the ability to read defenses. The two stats you could point to that give you a clue about these are comp. % and TD:INT ratio. IMO you shouldn't even draft a QB in the first that doesn't complete at least 60% of his passes in the NFL. If you go by size, speed and arm you will draft every Ryan Leaf and Jeff George that comes along. All you really need in size and arm is to meet the min. - avg. criteria of the NFL. Beyond that they have very little importance. Speed isn't even an issue.
     
  19. PackPhin

    PackPhin Well-Known Member

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    So you're saying it was a mistake to draft Marino?
     
  20. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Better yet, let's draft LeFors from Louisville. He was 189 of 257 for a 73.5% completion percentage. Oh he's the best, he's the most accurate, right guys. He threw 20 td's and only 3 int's.
    Give me a break. If that's the argument for Rodgers, then that's poor.
    This is not the year for qb's. Frye, Orton, Orlavsky, McPherson...who knows. These guys are as good as the top two.
    What about David Greene? What about his intangibles?
     
  21. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Tell that to every team that game plans vs Mike Vick
     
  22. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    Lefors doesn't meet the NFL min. height for the position. None of the others you mentioned are even close to the stats and intangibles Smith and Rodgers have.
     
  23. CashInFist

    CashInFist A True Fan

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    I think Aaron Rodgers is a product of a system...a PRO STYLE system. Cal has an NFL type system they run. If anything Alex Smith is the QB who's passing #'s are suspect because of the wide open offense they run.
     
  24. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    You tell me what you think are "intangibles". Smith was a one year wonder, Rodgers was a product of the system.

    And the argument for LeFors was sarcastic...just in case anybody didn't know.
     
  25. finfansince72

    finfansince72 A True Fan

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    Well I guess you all know something NFL scouts dont with all your years of vast personel knowledge....guys Rodgers is a top 10 pick guaranteed, Boller wasnt. If Boller and Rodgers came out in the same year Rodgers would go ahead of him. Hes an elite prospect certainly on a different level than Frye, Orton, Orlavsky, McPherson cmon now lets not get silly to make your point. If u feel he's a bust fine but lets not just pull things out of thin air.
     
  26. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Of course Smith was also! That's obvious.
     
  27. LIQUID24

    LIQUID24 hi

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    Haha, ok. Anyone who's seen him play knows that his arm is the least of his worries. Is that the only positive you can bring up? Pretty weak. I brought up the snapping from center because I saw him fumble quite a few times in the practices that were televised. Maybe he's improved since then, maybe he hasn't. I know other guys have made the transition.
     
  28. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    I would never have drafted Marino with the 1st or 2nd pick. Once you get to the end of the 1st rd you're weighing risks. Look it's all about odds. QBs that complete a high % in college are more likely to succeed in the pros. The guys who have that along with the other characteristics I've posted before are the guys you take early. Other QBs may still be successful but the risks are higher so you take them later.
     
  29. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    This year there are no sure bets at the qb spot. Period. And the fact that you wouldn't have drafted Marino high, just explains your arguments. Lacking knowledge.
     
  30. LIQUID24

    LIQUID24 hi

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    I'm pretty sure he means at the time, coming out of college. Knowing what we know now, of course he's worth the #1 pick.
     
  31. PackPhin

    PackPhin Well-Known Member

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    According to what you said earlier, you wouldn't have drafted Marino in the 1st round altogether.

    Thank god you weren't in that war-room...
     
  32. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    That's ridiculous. 26 teams passed on Marino. I guess they all lack knowledge. In fact, Shula even said he had other QBs rated higher in the draft than Marino. They were just gone by the time #27 came up. I guess he lacks knowledge too.

    The fact is that just about every expert has Rodgers and Smith in their top 10 and no other QB is even close. The fact that you claim that the other QBs are equivalent shows your lack of knowledge.
     
  33. PackPhin

    PackPhin Well-Known Member

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    So let me get this straight. If you want to draft a good QB, you have to pick em in the 1st and they have to have over 60% completion over thier career.
    If you wait till the later rounds and said Qb is still on the board, that means all the teams that passed over them were very knowledgable for doing so?

    Now I'm confused. Where are you suppose to pick a QB if you want a good one?

    Of course Tom Brady is laughing at you right about now...
     
  34. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Marino had a great college career. John Elway was the headliner of that draft. But anybody else, was well not quite a sure thing.

    I bet you told all your friends just how good ryan leaf was going to be.

    The fact is no one knows.

    Joey Harrington was the third overall choice, who played in that same system, and look. Bust, even with Mooch there.
    Akili Smith played in that same system and threw something like 38 touchdowns in his final year at oregon, and look at him, bust.
    David Carr might be the only prospect under that system to have some success in the pros.

    There are no Eli Manning's or Phillip Rivers'. Or even JP Losman's for that matter.

    That's just the sad truth.
     
  35. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    That year I thought Marino was a better risk than the alternatives. It's all about balancing risks. My general rule is you don't draft a QB in the first that completes less than 60% of his passes, but you have to consider what your other options are. I didn't think there was any other player with nearly as much upside at that point in the draft. Now I would have taken Elway or Kelly that year above Marino. But drafting isn't an exact science. Nobody is right all the time, but I feel pretty confident about my selections.
     
  36. LZoeller12

    LZoeller12 Starter

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    Yeah and Joe Montana too.
     
  37. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    No player is a sure thing. Every pick is a gamble. So you weigh the odds. You figure out which characteristics are likely to result in success. It's always a guess you just try and make it an educated one.

    My criteria for a QB I would take early is:

    Division 1 school,
    6'2" or taller
    60% comp. % (but you have to consider the system. ie. with a run and shoot I might look for a 65%), edit (just 1 year, preferably the last one)
    3:1 TD:INT ratio,
    avg. NFL arm strength,
    top 2 QB personalities (according to Jung based test)

    Brady was a fluke. Every NFL team passed him over 5 times. No system is perfect and the truth is I don't analyse every QB, but the I've found that this criteria would have avoided several notable flops.
     
  38. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    Actually I thought that Leaf, Harrington and Smith were all overrated and said so before the draft.

    Rodgers would certainly be rated above Rivers and Roth. Smith would be about even with them. IMO Losman wasn't worth a 1st.
     
  39. PackPhin

    PackPhin Well-Known Member

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    So ultimately Shula was an idiot for picking Marino where he did and Tom Brady/Joe Montana were flukes.
    Got it!


    Wish we'd mistakenly picked Brady though, I tell you that much.
    Woulda fluked us into 3 Super Bowls and we wouldn't be having this conversation...
     
  40. rafael

    rafael Hall Of Famer

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    Don't know where you got that Shula was an idiot, unless you just decided to stop reading.

    And yes late rd QB rarely succeed. If you look at how many are drafted you'll find that a very small % actually make it. That small % has to be called flukes. If you figure out a way to identify that small % you'll make millions, good luck.

    I wish we'd picked Brady as well.
     
  41. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt I drink your milkshake!

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    sounds like a bunch of people that didn't see him throw the ball this year.
     
  42. BlueFin

    BlueFin Seer of Visions Finheaven VIP

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    I think your wrong, he has a great arm, perfect mechanics, great accuracy(tied an ncaa record for consecutive completions), intelligent, mobile, there is absolutely nothing to not like about this kid, oh, and hes the ony QB in the last two years to beat USC, he outplayed Leinart both times they faced each other.
     
  43. LarryFinFan

    LarryFinFan Left So Fla, never the Fins...

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    While I agree that Rodgers might be the best prospect, it does not diminish the fact that he is a "system" QB. Tedford's QBs have not been very successful in the pros...that is a fact...Smith is also a "system" QB, but has about equal ability but is a smarter QB. The fact is, neither of these, the top two prospects, really get the scouts and GMs too excited this year. That's not to say they won't be successful, the league is full of QBs that most thought were not going to make it, but I would be reluctant to spend the #2 overall.
     
  44. morbio115

    morbio115 Well-Known Member

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  45. CashInFist

    CashInFist A True Fan

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    Don Shula had only one QB rated higher in that draft and it was John Elway. Get your facts straight.
     
  46. Awsi Dooger

    Awsi Dooger A True Fan

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    You'll go broke taking an Aaron Rodgers early in round one

    I'm talking about the long haul. Rodgers may become a great player, but that type of pick will destroy a franchise if you repeat the philosophy over time.

    Again, preseason ratings. Early evaluation. Anyone who dismisses them on the collegiate level is wacko. A Boston College team that didn't even crack the Sporting News preseason top 25 was undefeated and in the top 5 a few weeks ago. If you want to think that's legit, please toss your cash in my direction, and your brain cells elsewhere.

    That paragraph is not irrelevant to this topic. You use Marino as an example. Fine. Precisely what I'm referring to. He was always rated a premier prospect and slipped to #27 due to overreaction to his senior year. The truth of his ability was the early and long term rating, not the last minute garbage.

    You simply cannot afford to take someone high in round one who shot up out of nowhere. Granted, Rodgers is not the masochistic workout warrior who plays like a 4th rounder then vaults into the top 10 based on weight reps and shuttle runs. But he is the classic example of a secondary type of risk -- mediocre athlete who was not even considered a premier JC player and now you're supposed to believe he is a top 5 guy based on a year or two in an extremely sophisticated collegiate offense. No thank you.
     
  47. Phinz4Life

    Phinz4Life Hall Of Famer

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    Nice post. Got me thinking. Not changing opinions, but thought-provoking.
     
  48. LtDan

    LtDan I am a Dan but not a Lt.

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    Hell. everyone is the product of whatever system they come out of if you want to be realistic
     
  49. Buddwalk

    Buddwalk The Jukebox Hero

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    Kyle Boller is a product of a great combine thats all...he was slated to go in the second or third round then he shot into the first with a monster combine thats all. His accuracy was always a question

    Rodgers has been slated has one of the most accurate qbs in college football and his arm is for real. The kid can make all the throws. I think the dolphins should seriously consider him at #2 overall or in the second round if they can get a pick there we should take charlie frye
     

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