Russ Lande(former scout) on the rookies | Page 8 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Russ Lande(former scout) on the rookies

Again I believe you're confusing what Simon said the guy was worthy of with whether Simon PREDICTED he would go in the first round.

Statement 1: I believe Colt Brennan is worthy of consideration at #9 overall.
Statement 2: I believe Colt Brennan will be selected in the first round.

Statement 1 does not imply Statement 2.

I am not confused on the matter. Did Simon predict that Brennan would be a first round pick the year he was actually in the draft no. Simon predicted it many times the year before though as did many other members of this board. Its moot anyway because its not like we can pull up every post and we all know Simon is never wrong on this board.
 
I am not confused on the matter. Did Simon predict that Brennan would be a first round pick the year he was actually in the draft no. Simon predicted it many times the year before though as did many other members of this board. Its moot anyway because its not like we can pull up every post and we all know Simon is never wrong on this board.

I'm just saying, I have known Simon for many years now, he and I speak regularly, he and I are partners on the UniversalDraft.com venture, we have been doing draft analysis together for years, and I know his mind on historical and current draft prospects better than anyone else. And I do not recall him predicting that Colt Brennan would be a first round pick, not even the year before. If you could find the posts where he said exactly that, that Colt Brennan would be a first round pick, kudos and I'll admit my memory was wrong. But absent that, I'm going to assume your memory is a little blurry on the exact language he used, no offense meant...but he is British after all.

Quite frankly Colt Brennan is not the guy to bring up if you want to talk about his or my past. Andre Woodson is.
 
I'm just saying, I have known Simon for many years now, he and I speak regularly, he and I are partners on the UniversalDraft.com venture, we have been doing draft analysis together for years, and I know his mind on historical and current draft prospects better than anyone else. And I do not recall him predicting that Colt Brennan would be a first round pick, not even the year before. If you could find the posts where he said exactly that, that Colt Brennan would be a first round pick, kudos and I'll admit my memory was wrong. But absent that, I'm going to assume your memory is a little blurry on the exact language he used, no offense meant...but he is British after all.

Quite frankly Colt Brennan is not the guy to bring up if you want to talk about his or my past. Andre Woodson is.

Problem is you cant pull up any of those posts . It doesnt really matter anyway, not trying to discredit any of his predictions or yours. We all have had opinions on players that were wrong. There is no way I thought we would be stupid enough to draft another qb in the second round this year and I was quite wrong. My memory though is not blurry especially when it comes to any convo I have had with Mr dont dare to disagree with me.
 
If you don't like CK's long posts then don't read them. Is someone holding a gun to your head or something?
 
And my point was, with no offense meant, that your line of thinking in this regard is pretty two-dimensional. Getting a pick for free, necessitates an increase in risk appetite across the board. As I said, you can do this across the board with all of the picks and make them all a little more risk-neutral (as opposed to the usual, risk-averse)...or you can just make one pick with a healthy risk appetite but value the rest accordingly.

If you don't adjust your risk appetite to reflect the addition of a free pick like that, then you are doing yourself a disservice. You're taking the envelope with a 50% chance at $10 and ignoring the envelope with a 25% chance of, let's say, $25.

In comparing White to $25 versus $10, my comment would be how high is White's upside? How high is the upside of a 6' QB that doesn't have sub 4.5 speed, and hasn't worked out as a WR? He would have to be running a lot of productive snaps out of the Wildcat for years to approach having a big "reward" to balance the "risk" when we are talking about a 44th pick.
 
The average contribution during a game by a back-up QB = 0.

If White breaks a few WildPat plays a game open, > 0.

You usually don't get production from your back-up QB. This may be an effort to do just that.
 
There wouldn't be any "constantly" about it. Make no mistake the Wildcat was only 10% of the Dolphins' playbook in 2008 and if it increases at all in 2009 it would probably cap out at about 15% or MAYBE 20% (but I doubt it).

I guess I see the argument that continuing to use the Wildcat can detract from cohesion in the regular offense, but we've yet to see that factor into anything. Meanwhile, preparing for the Wildcat can take a defense a full day of practice, where the Dolphins only have to spend 20 minutes installing a Wildcat play.

I think that's really the biggest thing. These spread concepts have worked wonderfully at the college level and truly changed the nature of the game. I remember people saying when Urban Meyer came to Florida that his concepts would not work at the SEC level because the athletes there are too good. Well, two National Championships later, it's obvious his concepts have worked even at that elite level of speed and talent.

I'm not going so far as to say an offense entirely based on those principles could work at the NFL level, but if an NFL team does not prepare for them, then they can get hit up for costly game-changing plays (see plays against New England, San Diego, Houston and Seattle). So, they're forced to prepare for the offense. And, when you force them to prepare for that, you can start adding other wrinkles to your base offense that maybe they didn't have time to prepare for.

Back when Bill Belichick was known as a defensive genius and mastermind, isn't this what he did on the defensive side of the ball? He employed a 3-4 defense that was out of favor with basically the entire league (only 2 or 3 teams ran it at the time). He often went to really strange, almost gimmicky formations. Seven linebackers? That's Belichick for ya. How about Terrell Buckley playing a linebacker position? Belichick. Chad Cascadden missiling into an offensive lineman so that Mo Lewis can follow right through and sack the quarterback? Belichick. I remember back then the players always use to talk about how they couldn't wait to get the game plan from him each week because they knew there would always be some new and odd wrinkle that teams aren't prepared for.

So why shouldn't Miami strive for the same thing? And if Pat White's addition holds the rest of the NFL off from catching up to the Wildcat for even just one year, providing the delta on two or three more wins...then his selection was worth it.

CK, I happen to totally agree with your above post. I like the Wildcat and I like the fact that it pushes defenses limits and makes their lives harder.

But weren't you critical a few weeks ago of the Pat White pick on the basis that he isn't the running threat that Ronnie is? You were talking about the fact that you wouldn't put Pat White in the I formation and run him a lot. My take was that he could be effective as the Darren Sproles change of pace player, but you seemed to disagree if memory serves me.
 
Mike Vick isn't much bigger.....he did ok (not trying to start THAT debate...but so I think we can settle on 'ok' more or less). Vince Young was rookie of the year and a Pro Bowler, no? His problems are mostly upstairs, so I don't really see that comparison.

But I think that each could have been VERY effective in our wildcat, which is all Pat White has to be initially, and he can grow into the rest...which of course is a crap shoot (but we know that about drafting ANY QB, right?)

Problem is Vick ran a 4.3. His speed was unbelievable (game-changing).
 
To my knowledge, Simon never predicted that he WOULD go in the first round. Just that he was worthy of it. And, let's be honest, how could anyone say for certain that Simon has been PROVEN wrong on that? All the guy has done is catch on with a team and look pretty good in the preseason.

But I guess I do see what you're saying about him.

As for the Sintim/Bawrin thing...well, let me just say that Barwin is quite the projection himself. Time will tell which guy will be helping his team win games.

Given Barwin's speed, I would say he has even more upside than Pat White. Dominant speed rushers off the edge win more games than any non-QB position in my opinion.

Either they saw something they weren't crazy about in Barwin, or they just fell in love with Pat White. I think BP fell in love with White, I think BP loves thinking that he is smarter than the rest of the NFL. He wants the Wildcat to cement his genius legacy in my opinion.
 
The average contribution during a game by a back-up QB = 0.

If White breaks a few WildPat plays a game open, > 0.

You usually don't get production from your back-up QB. This may be an effort to do just that.


Great fact about the Pat White pick. Of course this is all projection on our part. But if we can get game day production from a back up QB then that is just about 100 % better than the rest of the league. As I stated earlier we will be in the market for a backup QB next year. Not stating that Pat White is that answer but at the same time its nice to get starting on that project early. Plus on the surface he does appear push Chadd Henne for the job this year than just showing up and Chad H expecting that the job is his and all the QB are just windows dressing in case he gets hurt. Guess what QB's get hurt and I beleive Chad Henne had been down that road himself before.
 
Pat's old college coach said White was running 4.3's before they put 20lbs of muscle on him...................but yes Vick was one of the fastest players ever, let alone QB.

All i know is Pat has a chance to be everything Vick and Young should of been.As a fan of football it will fun to see how it all works out, let alone a Dolfan.
 
he's never been a jittery guy. i think he will be able to shake those doubts off his mind, big if or not.

One item you forgot....he's never been hurt before...and that factor can't be measured until he gets hit. Now for the real news...the Pats are going to play much more out of the shotgun...can the Pats O-line protect Brady?

I have my doubts. Brady was never much of a running QB...and now wearing a brace on his knee will make him less of a threat to run. With Porter and Taylor rushing him...never mind what blitz formations the Dolphins will dream up...he will have less time to get rid of the football...so Welker should get a lot more catches than Moss.
 
Great fact about the Pat White pick. Of course this is all projection on our part. But if we can get game day production from a back up QB then that is just about 100 % better than the rest of the league. As I stated earlier we will be in the market for a backup QB next year. Not stating that Pat White is that answer but at the same time its nice to get starting on that project early. Plus on the surface he does appear push Chadd Henne for the job this year than just showing up and Chad H expecting that the job is his and all the QB are just windows dressing in case he gets hurt. Guess what QB's get hurt and I beleive Chad Henne had been down that road himself before.

Do you get bonus points for getting productivity out of all 45 active roster players on game day? I don't see the relevance to this point. If you score a touchdown, it doesn't matter if it's your 3rd tight end, 2nd QB, or 5th WR.
 
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