so are we ready to shed millions?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Tannchise, Dec 6, 2017.

  1. Dolphins512

    Dolphins512 My Friends Call Me Bob Finheaven VIP Donator

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    It really doesn't make much sense....but after 4 years, I've grown kind of used to it.
     
  2. Dolphins512

    Dolphins512 My Friends Call Me Bob Finheaven VIP Donator

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    You know...I hadn't thought of that comparison, but you may be right.
     
  3. josephreese

    josephreese Since '76

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    Amen.
     
  4. Vaark

    Vaark Nihil taurus crappus Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Was on Jetsnation.. they're creaming over Mayfield too.. he's no longer a best kept secret :( McShay said he's got more leadership qualities than most anyone he's seen lately. I sure hope they don't end up with him.
     
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  5. hoops

    hoops exited stage left

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    Cousins has played good ball this year I’m not gonna try and deny it. I’ve probably seen him 5 times and 4 of those 5 he’s played better than any qb we’ve put out there this year on even their best day.

    So he’s gonna command massive money. And whether or not you agree it’s an upgrade or not and I don’t agree that it is you’d be asking him to run a different o than the one he does currently and likely incurring a transition phase and you’d be locking yourself into at minimum the next 3 likely 4 years in the process to a guy that lacks top shelf physical tools but has maximized what he has at market setting money.

    And in the process you’d be taking on a qb that has never been able to get the skins over the hump. All of that not being his fault mind you but I’ve seen plenty of games in the past where his mistakes in the clutch decided games or took them out of them. And some with a lot riding on the outcome

    Maybe he’s kicked that trend I don’t know and we aren’t gonna find out this year cause once again the skins aren’t playing for anything but a draft pick
     
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  6. Vaark

    Vaark Nihil taurus crappus Finheaven VIP Donator

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    LOL
     
  7. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    Me either. If we want to go after someone who is a vet at least have the decency to suggest a guy like Alex Smith.
     
  8. Zounds

    Zounds CPA4LYFE Donator

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    Sportrac cap space figure for 2018 is based on the salary cap remaining the same as it was in 2017 ($167M), and we know that assumption is not correct. Every year the salary cap goes up. It went up $12M last year, and if it goes up the same this year, we are looking at about $17M of cap space next year before we make cuts.
     
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  9. Zounds

    Zounds CPA4LYFE Donator

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    I would cut these guys even if there were no cap savings. They could be cut on performance alone:

    Pouncey $7M
    James $9.5M
    Thomas $6.5M
    Larsen $1M
    Gray $1M
    Grant $500K
     
  10. Zounds

    Zounds CPA4LYFE Donator

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    When did Finheaven get rid of the thumbs down button? Because this post is a garbage as they get. I've done regression analysis almost all of my professional life, and I've never seen more bogus modeling that the ones put out by Shouright, yet you defend his garbage. I begged Shouright to send me his regression inputs and he refused...want to know why? They were fake.
     
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  11. NBP81

    NBP81 Yippi ka yay mother******! Finheaven VIP Donator

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    D) Davone Bess...
     
  12. Tannchise

    Tannchise A True Fan

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  13. Tannchise

    Tannchise A True Fan

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    well I am changing it up a bit. Been mediocre for 25 years. Sorry if I want to reward the heart of this offense in Landry. This is not a rebuild project. I have left the core WRs, LBs and Secondary alone. This team lacks personnel in the trenches, that's where the resources have to go.
     
  14. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    If Alex Smith could sustain the level of play he's exhibiting this year, which is debatable, he'd be a marked improvement as well.
     
  15. Birdmond

    Birdmond FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I don’t know on what planet that’s not an upgrade. Sign me up now.
     
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  16. Stoobz

    Stoobz Scout Team Finheaven VIP

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    Some folks here are worse capologists than what we currently have. That's bad.
     
  17. John813

    John813 Well-Known Member

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    Pouncey $7M
    James $9.5M
    Wake $8M
    Timmons $1M
    Thomas $6.5M

    Theses are the 5 guys I would strong consider cutting.
    Guys like Thomas and Pouncey I would just cut and hope for the best with the new guy.
    James is still in the air depending how Davis does out there to finish the year.
    Timmons would just depend on how FA/draft goes. Same with Wake.
     
  18. finmann

    finmann Pro Bowler

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    Through Kiko in their too.
     
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  19. finmann

    finmann Pro Bowler

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    I like Alex Smith, he's done a good job the last couple of years in KC.
     
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  20. Tannchise

    Tannchise A True Fan

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    he is not cuttable until 2019
     
  21. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    I think your approach is truly what is called for. However, I would go the further step of allowing Landry to leave as well. I don’t think paying a slot receiver one of the highest wide receiver salaries in the league is the proper way to begin the reestablishment of an optimal team salary structure.

    Pay that money instead to Kirk Cousins, who plays the position whose salary should form the cornerstone of any optimal team salary structure.
     
  22. nick1

    nick1 I am Groot Moderator Finheaven VIP Donator

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    Kirk cousins is weak no dice. How good has he lead the redskins? I think they have a similar record as us. Great leader
     
  23. Tannchise

    Tannchise A True Fan

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    so who plays WR, just Stills?
     
  24. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    Alex Smith doesn't have to sustain any level he's already proven he can win. He's 85-62-1 as a started with a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio and if it wasn't for his first five **** years in San Fran on a terrible team those numbers would be even better.
     
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  25. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Maybe you haven't noticed but the popularity of the league is trending down. Attendance is down at games, viewership is down on TV...highly doubt they will increase the cap by any significant amount, if at all, this year. The kneeling for the flag, horrible refs, injuries to key players like Aaron Rodgers...all factors for the popularity of the sport going down.
     
  26. FSU Truth

    FSU Truth The North Remembers Finheaven VIP

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    Not only that, fewer kids are participating in the sport (numbers in youth and high school are down a good amount in my area over the last 8 years and I live in a hotbed of high school and youth football). Less kids have a favorite team and favor players and following their stats as oppose to watching games (fantasy). The next generation of fans are not interested in sitting down and watching games in the same way many current adults did growing up.
     
  27. datruth55

    datruth55 Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Yeah I think the concussions and CTE issues have caused parents to prevent their kids from playing. In my area Lacrosse is taking off quickly.
     
  28. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    The best predictor of won-loss record is a team's passer rating differential.

    In Cousins' three years as a starter, the Redskins' won-loss records, Cousins' passer ratings, and the Redskins' passer rating differentials have been the following:

    2015: 9-7 record, Cousins' passer rating 101.6, passer rating differential 5.9 points
    2016: 8-7-1 record, Cousins' passer rating 97.2, passer rating differential 6.3 points
    2017: 5-7 record, Cousins' passer rating 99.6, passer rating differential 11.7

    The first two of those three years consist of roughly the expected won-loss records. For every 5.65-point advantage in passer rating differential, one win over and above an 8-8 record is expected. In other words, Cousins did his part to help his team have a strong likelihood of achieving a very good record (12-4 give or take a win) during those two seasons, while the Redskins' pass defense was relatively weak and prevented the team from achieving such a record.

    In the third of those three years (this year), Cousins has again performed very well passing the ball, and the Redskins' pass defense has performed a good deal better, but Cousins' sack rate has jumped from 4.6% and 3.7% in the first two of those three years, to 7.8%, and he currently leads the league in yardage lost on sacks.

    So, with that information in tow, I think it's very difficult to make a "poor leadership" argument sound convincing. It might be true -- who knows, since we aren't in the Redskins' locker room -- but we have enough other convincing information here to make that idea at least highly questionable. We certainly can't say with any certainty that he's "a poor leader," with this other information readily available.
     
  29. susser2000

    susser2000 A True Fan

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    Cut Tannehill at 16 million to sign a qb for 20 million....makes sense.
     
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  30. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    With the level of performance he exhibited on average over every other season of his career but this one, he would very likely achieve a losing record with the Dolphins' current pass defense.

    Only with this season's performance on his part would he help the Dolphins, with their current pass defense, achieve an expected record of 8-8.

    And that actually represents a very good performance on his part this year, since the Dolphins are very likely to finish 5-11. Smith would very likely be responsible for three to four wins with the current Dolphins.
     
  31. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    Doubt it. His record is 66 and 31 for 21,666 yards, 129 TDs, 43 ints with a 95.9 rating over the past 7 seasons. If you don't think Alex Smith will help this football team your first draft pick in 2018 should be a QB because Ryan Tannehill ain't gonna help either.
     
  32. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the team should put the cart before the horse. Get a quarterback and pay him, and then start assembling the surrounding pieces, while matching their salaries to their impact on the current game.

    In other words, the optimal team salary structure consists of a salary hierarchy in which there is a strong correlation between the players' individual salary cap hits and the impact on the game associated with the positions they play.

    If you're starting "from scratch" here in the way you're suggesting, I don't think you want to have a slot receiver as one of your highest-paid players, when slot receiver doesn't have a corresponding impact on the game.

    Now, if you were talking about paying someone like AJ Green, Julio Jones, or Deandre Hopkins that kind of money, then that would make sense, because the impact on the game of players like those is tremendous, and you can go ahead and pay them what they're worth right out of the gate, when reestablishing an optimal team salary structure.

    But obviously Jarvis Landry is not one of those players. He sort of seems that way to us, however, only because of his familiarity to us, and because the Dolphins have no receiver of the likes of those noted above.
     
  33. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    You responded to only part of what I said.
     
  34. NY8123

    NY8123 Sophisticated Redneck Administrator Finheaven VIP

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    No I responded to your assertion that he would need to perform at this year's level and this year's level only to help Miami. He could perform at any level of the past seven years of his career and help Miami.
     
  35. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    Here was the original statement:


    Considering only whether he would "help Miami" as you put it neglects to consider a good bit of other information included in that statement.

    I'll readily agree that he would help Miami. In fact I stated such above, when I noted that he would've likely contributed three to four wins to this year's team.
     
  36. Danny

    Danny FinHeaven VIP

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    Are you saying that with Smith at QB we'd have won 3 or 4 more games this year but if with Tannehill our record would still be the same as it is now?

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  37. finmann

    finmann Pro Bowler

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    I know.........
     
  38. lurking

    lurking FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    He has said that Tannehill would only add 1 to 2 more games.
     
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  39. phintim

    phintim Seasoned Veteran

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    Do you see Fales as a possibility next year. RT will return next year but Gase must improve if both return in 19 IMO
     
  40. <O>

    <O> Well-Known Member

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    No -- at Tannehill's level of performance he sustained for a good stretch last year (passer rating just above 100), the team would've very likely won three more games this year than with Cutler/Moore.

    With Smith that figure might've increased to four, given that Smith's level of performance this year is a decent bit higher than Tannehill's was last year.
     

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