Q: Do you believe some teams load up to try and win a Super Bowl, believing they have a short window for various reasons, and feel it is important to go for it fully knowing the bill will come due and the consequences will be felt for a few years?
A: I do.
Q: Do you believe this is a reasonable thing to do?
A: I do not like the idea of doing this, but I understand why some teams might do it. I prefer the strategy of building a very good team that is sustainable, and has a shot year in and year out over a long period of time. I think many bites at the apple gives you better odds of success than one big bite. This is what KC has done, and what the Patriots did.
Q: Do you believe he Dolphins just tried to load up in 2023 to take advantage of Tua being on his last cheap year from his rookie contract?
A: I do.
Q: Whose idea do you think this was?
A: Primarily Steve Ross’s, but my guess is neither McDaniel nor Grier fought him too hard on this one. Ultimately behaving this way is an ownership decision. Even if you believe it wasn’t Ross’s idea, he had to sign off on the approach. Either way, the buck stops with him.
Q: In Miami’s case, was this a reasonable thing to do?
A: In my view, absolutely not. They went all in, with a very weak poker hand. It is almost like they went all in with a bluff. Not advisable. Grier is the one who had to execute this, and in no way had Grier proven he is savvy enough to pull it off. Wrong guy for Ross to make the bet with. Then, although I am high on McDaniel as a coach, he is not there yet and still too green. He has a lot to learn. This process may have begun in 2022, when they had no idea what McDaniel was, because it was his first year. Same thing for Tua at that point. Coming into 2022, he looked pretty shaky. Then, even though he looked good, he spent a fair portion of the year hurt with concussions, to the degree his career was in question. With Tua and McDaniel being question marks, they continued the process in 2022 with the Chubb deal, and then did the Ramsey deal in the 2023 offseason, prior to Tua proving he was a playoff QB and prior to McDaniel showing he had enough seasoning. There just was not enough data to confidently go all in and think you had a good chance of pulling it off, such that the future pain would be worth bearing for the short term high of a Super Bowl run.
Q: How well did they execute the all-in?
A: Poorly in my view. First of all, not a single division title or playoff win. Compare this to the LA Rams, who had a 5 or 6 year run. Two Super Bowls, with one win. Competitive and in the playoffs nearly the whole time. Took a digger after that, but only for two years, and they seem to already have put themselves back into a decent spot. That was well executed, and a smart bet by the Rams owner. He had a great GM in Les Snead, a proven HC in Sean McVay, and a roster that seemed like it had the wherewithal to get the job done with a few key pieces added. Those guys brough the right QB in at the end, to be the final piece of the puzzle. It worked. And they didn’t suffer incredible amounts of pain on the backside, as their GM was capable enough to manage around it and rebuild smartly and quickly. In the case of the Dolphins, not only do we seemingly have nothing to show for it, but Grier left the team in a terrible spot doing this. Devoid of draft picks and way over the cap. All at the same time when their own key guys are hitting the market, and when Tua’s deal is coming up, which is a big issue to work around in and of itself. Grier left too much to hit, all at once, along with Tua's monster new deal. This is terrible management of the all-in. Way too much risk with consequences that are too severe, the way this all played out with their own talented players coming to market. It was mismanaged, which is no surprise. The all-in didn’t work, and now we are bearing too high a cost the way Grier architected it.
Q: Who do you blame?
A: Primarily Ross in my view. Although Grier stinks, and McDaniel is not ready, and Tua is still a big question mark, Ross is the one who decided to go all in with these variables in play, Grier being the one he had to rely on to execute it, and all the question marks. Although I am OK with a team doing this like the Rams, the Dolphins were not in a place to do it. Again, I wonder if Ross’s age is part of the issue? Did he feel like this was his last shot, or is this just more of the same impetuous behavior as the prior 23 years? At any rate, this was a really bad bet for the Dolphins. The risk/reward was not good. It is akin to taking your life savings, and putting it all on one number on the roulette wheel.
Q: Am I being too pessimistic?
A: No, and potentially yes in practice. First of all, I am making a process point. Sometimes you can do the wrong thing and get lucky and be rewarded for it. But, from a pure how to behave perspective, it has not been good strategy or execution. What we now know is there is no doubt they are forced to shed a bunch of talent from the roster due to the spot they are in. There is also no doubt they have had little in the way of draft capital the last few years. As things stand now, on paper, they are a fair bit less talented than last year. Obviously, the offseason is not done yet. They could pull a rabbit out of the hat. But to rely on the guy to pull this off with negative cap space and few draft picks when he couldn’t pull it off with a lot of draft picks and a lot of cap space seems like a low probability outcome. Fewer injuries could be a potential offset, but that is betting on something random (and the reality is Tua or someone else important could get hurt next year), not to mention it seems like it will be a while before Chubb and Jaelen Phillips will be back to full potential.
Thoughts?
