The Bet

[phinsforlife]

Me thinks OP likes attention

well if you dont like objective analysis and discussion there is the jonnu smith signing to talk about! one more guy who doesnt address the content, but instead launches into personal attacks. have a nice night!

 

[Jamesw]

I don't believe Ross is as intimately involved as you suggest. Most people at his level and age will approve an overall team construction strategy and perhaps case by case proposals within that strategy. The GM is responsible for presenting the strategic team construction plan to the owner and then the execution of the plan, once approved. The GM asks and receives input from the HC. The HC is responsible for on-field game strategy and results.

 

[phinsforlife]

I don't believe Ross is as intimately involved as you suggest. Most people at his level and age will approve an overall team construction strategy and perhaps case by case proposals within that strategy. The GM is responsible for presenting the strategic team construction plan to the owner and then the execution of the plan, once approved. The GM asks and receives input from the HC. The HC is responsible for on-field game strategy and results.

that is how they would describe it in school, but in real life owners muddle like MOFO's. the team is their own personal fanstasy football team. if they sat back in did nothing, it wouldnt be very fun for them. there is really no point to owning the team if you are just one of us

 

[Jamesw]

that is how they would describe it in school, but in real life owners muddle like MOFO's. the team is their own personal fanstasy football team. if they sat back in did nothing, it wouldnt be very fun for them. there is really no point to owning the team if you are just one of us

You make that claim based on what? I know professional team sport owners. They act very much like I described. Jerry Jones and a few others might get more detailed but the vast majority act like "business owners" with the perks of even more attention than owning more traditional companies. And an professional sports team is typically, part of a portfolio of companies they own.

 

[phinsforlife]

You make that claim based on what? I know professional team sport owners. They act very much like I described. Jerry Jones and a few others might get more detailed but the vast majority act like "business owners" with the perks of even more attention than owning more traditional companies. And an professional sports team is typically, part of a portfolio of companies they own.

well i guess we disagree then. my view is in addition to making hiring decisions, they meddle w regard to personnel decisions and strategic direction decisions. to varying degrees, but they all meddle. but anyway, if you believe what you do, is ross a good owner given they havent won a single stinking playoff game for the 15 years he has owned the team?

 

[Jamesw]

well i guess we disagree then. my view is in addition to making hiring decisions, they meddle w regard to personnel decisions and strategic direction decisions. to varying degrees, but they all meddle. but anyway, if you believe what you do, is ross a good owner given they havent won a single stinking playoff game for the 15 years he has owned the team?

Its ok to disagree. I think Mr. Ross is a B level owner. He certainly has made a few mistakes. But he also has strengths. Grier also rates a B-/B with me, with pros and cons.

 

[fishfanmiami]

well i guess we disagree then. my view is in addition to making hiring decisions, they meddle w regard to personnel decisions and strategic direction decisions. to varying degrees, but they all meddle. but anyway, if you believe what you do, is ross a good owner given they havent won a single stinking playoff game for the 15 years he has owned the team?

Post some positive stuff dude

I banned your pal aqua for posting nothing but negative posts

Mix in the positive stuff or i will do the same for you

 

[powerball1373]

Q: Do you enjoy all of this posters chitty posts?

A: I do not.

Q: Do you enjoy chit posting in all of this posters shitty posts?

A:

 

[fishfanmiami]

Screw you

And you keep this up and I will ban you as well

 

[Jamesw]

well if i could get away without winning a single playoff game in 15 years, and still get a B grade, I wish you were all my teachers growing up because I would have been in the front row as opposed to having been relegated to the short bus!!!

No worries. Short or long only matters to brother Circumstances or to my gf when comparing my inadequacies with Ray R. LOL

 

[Travis34]

well if you dont like objective analysis and discussion there is the jonnu smith signing to talk about! one more guy who doesnt address the content, but instead launches into personal attacks. have a nice night!

You think that was a personal attack?

 

[Kyndig]

Q: Do you believe some teams load up to try and win a Super Bowl, believing they have a short window for various reasons, and feel it is important to go for it fully knowing the bill will come due and the consequences will be felt for a few years?

A: I do.

Q: Do you believe this is a reasonable thing to do?

A: I do not like the idea of doing this, but I understand why some teams might do it. I prefer the strategy of building a very good team that is sustainable, and has a shot year in and year out over a long period of time. I think many bites at the apple gives you better odds of success than one big bite. This is what KC has done, and what the Patriots did.

Q: Do you believe he Dolphins just tried to load up in 2023 to take advantage of Tua being on his last cheap year from his rookie contract?

A: I do.

Q: Whose idea do you think this was?

A: Primarily Steve Ross’s, but my guess is neither McDaniel nor Grier fought him too hard on this one. Ultimately behaving this way is an ownership decision. Even if you believe it wasn’t Ross’s idea, he had to sign off on the approach. Either way, the buck stops with him.

Q: In Miami’s case, was this a reasonable thing to do?

A: In my view, absolutely not. They went all in, with a very weak poker hand. It is almost like they went all in with a bluff. Not advisable. Grier is the one who had to execute this, and in no way had Grier proven he is savvy enough to pull it off. Wrong guy for Ross to make the bet with. Then, although I am high on McDaniel as a coach, he is not there yet and still too green. He has a lot to learn. This process may have begun in 2022, when they had no idea what McDaniel was, because it was his first year. Same thing for Tua at that point. Coming into 2022, he looked pretty shaky. Then, even though he looked good, he spent a fair portion of the year hurt with concussions, to the degree his career was in question. With Tua and McDaniel being question marks, they continued the process in 2022 with the Chubb deal, and then did the Ramsey deal in the 2023 offseason, prior to Tua proving he was a playoff QB and prior to McDaniel showing he had enough seasoning. There just was not enough data to confidently go all in and think you had a good chance of pulling it off, such that the future pain would be worth bearing for the short term high of a Super Bowl run.

Q: How well did they execute the all-in?

A: Poorly in my view. First of all, not a single division title or playoff win. Compare this to the LA Rams, who had a 5 or 6 year run. Two Super Bowls, with one win. Competitive and in the playoffs nearly the whole time. Took a digger after that, but only for two years, and they seem to already have put themselves back into a decent spot. That was well executed, and a smart bet by the Rams owner. He had a great GM in Les Snead, a proven HC in Sean McVay, and a roster that seemed like it had the wherewithal to get the job done with a few key pieces added. Those guys brough the right QB in at the end, to be the final piece of the puzzle. It worked. And they didn’t suffer incredible amounts of pain on the backside, as their GM was capable enough to manage around it and rebuild smartly and quickly. In the case of the Dolphins, not only do we seemingly have nothing to show for it, but Grier left the team in a terrible spot doing this. Devoid of draft picks and way over the cap. All at the same time when their own key guys are hitting the market, and when Tua’s deal is coming up, which is a big issue to work around in and of itself. Grier left too much to hit, all at once, along with Tua's monster new deal. This is terrible management of the all-in. Way too much risk with consequences that are too severe, the way this all played out with their own talented players coming to market. It was mismanaged, which is no surprise. The all-in didn’t work, and now we are bearing too high a cost the way Grier architected it.

Q: Who do you blame?

A: Primarily Ross in my view. Although Grier stinks, and McDaniel is not ready, and Tua is still a big question mark, Ross is the one who decided to go all in with these variables in play, Grier being the one he had to rely on to execute it, and all the question marks. Although I am OK with a team doing this like the Rams, the Dolphins were not in a place to do it. Again, I wonder if Ross’s age is part of the issue? Did he feel like this was his last shot, or is this just more of the same impetuous behavior as the prior 23 years? At any rate, this was a really bad bet for the Dolphins. The risk/reward was not good. It is akin to taking your life savings, and putting it all on one number on the roulette wheel.

Q: Am I being too pessimistic?

A: No, and potentially yes in practice. First of all, I am making a process point. Sometimes you can do the wrong thing and get lucky and be rewarded for it. But, from a pure how to behave perspective, it has not been good strategy or execution. What we now know is there is no doubt they are forced to shed a bunch of talent from the roster due to the spot they are in. There is also no doubt they have had little in the way of draft capital the last few years. As things stand now, on paper, they are a fair bit less talented than last year. Obviously, the offseason is not done yet. They could pull a rabbit out of the hat. But to rely on the guy to pull this off with negative cap space and few draft picks when he couldn’t pull it off with a lot of draft picks and a lot of cap space seems like a low probability outcome. Fewer injuries could be a potential offset, but that is betting on something random (and the reality is Tua or someone else important could get hurt next year), not to mention it seems like it will be a while before Chubb and Jaelen Phillips will be back to full potential.

Thoughts?

Wow, I’ve never thought to interview myself before. That’s genius!

It’s hard to look at the Ravens and Chiefs and come to the conclusion that we are going to be better than them this year in terms of a talent infusion based on what we have to work with this off season.

The Bills are discarding tons of free players like ballast overboard, so not sure they’re getting better this off season either, so that’s good at least we should be able to keep up with them this season in the AFC East.

Can we do better this year than we did last year?

yes, I think it’s possible if the following happens:

1. Injuries. We had an exceptional amount of injuries last year, an unusual amount, so as long as that doesn’t repeat especially at critical positions where we don’t have quality depth, then that right there would be a significant improvement over last year in terms of our chances to win in December/Jan.

2. Offensive line. If we do improve here, on the interior in particular, protect Tua better so he has more time to let things develop more, and to be able to run the ball in short yardage situations with a high degree of success, then this will also give us better chances to play better in December and January.

3. WR/TE. If we have reliable 3rd and 4th options that can make the defense pay for doubling Jwaddle & Reek, then that should improve our passing game which sort of collapsed at the end of the year when Reek and Waddle weren’t 100% and defenses adjusted by blanketing them and then daring anyone else to beat them. With the new Tight end, the return of Ezukama from injury, and potentially if we draft a good receiver with some decent size in this ridiculously deep draft class at that position group, then the combination of those three things will improve our passing game as well.

4. Offensive Coaching. If McDaniel can stick to the run when it’s working, install a no huddle attack for Tua when we need to get momentum back and keep the defense off balance, and with an improved Oline, if we can play smash mouth football when we choose to, and make better halftime adjustments, then this right here could yield significant dividends from last year and also help us go further in December and January.

5. Defensive backfield. Ramsay, Kohou, Needham (maybe?), Bonner, & Cam Smith and possibly another free agent, we need one of them to lock up the boundary corner position opposite Ramsay, and Kohou needs to do better in the slot.

6. Defensive coaching. Weaver needs to adapt his scheme to fit our players. That means more man coverage, and don’t put too much on Kohou in the slot so he doesn’t have to think so much, so we see more of the 2022 Kohou as opposed to the 2023 Kohou.

7. defensive Personnel. If we can re-sign AVG and maybe add a relatively cheap edge defender and a nose tackle, we should be okay on this side of the ball. We’ll get Chubb and Philips back mid season which will be a big boost, and we should still have enough talent in our front 7 to get after the QB.

In summary, if we improve in the above areas, we should be able to win a playoff game or two, and actually be better than we were in 2023, espeicially if we can stay a bit more healthy.

 

[phinsforlife]

Wow, I’ve never thought to interview myself before. That’s genius!

It’s hard to look at the Ravens and Chiefs and come to the conclusion that we are going to be better than them this year in terms of a talent infusion based on what we have to work with this off season.

The Bills are discarding tons of free players like ballast overboard, so not sure they’re getting better this off season either, so that’s good at least we should be able to keep up with them this season in the AFC East.

Can we do better this year than we did last year?

yes, I think it’s possible if the following happens:

1. Injuries. We had an exceptional amount of injuries last year, an unusual amount, so as long as that doesn’t repeat especially at critical positions where we don’t have quality depth, then that right there would be a significant improvement over last year in terms of our chances to win in December/Jan.

2. Offensive line. If we do improve here, on the interior in particular, protect Tua better so he has more time to let things develop more, and to be able to run the ball in short yardage situations with a high degree of success, then this will also give us better chances to play better in December and January.

3. WR/TE. If we have reliable 3rd and 4th options that can make the defense pay for doubling Jwaddle & Reek, then that should improve our passing game which sort of collapsed at the end of the year when Reek and Waddle weren’t 100% and defenses adjusted by blanketing them and then daring anyone else to beat them. With the new Tight end, the return of Ezukama from injury, and potentially if we draft a good receiver with some decent size in this ridiculously deep draft class at that position group, then the combination of those three things will improve our passing game as well.

4. Offensive Coaching. If McDaniel can stick to the run when it’s working, install a no huddle attack for Tua when we need to get momentum back and keep the defense off balance, and with an improved Oline, if we can play smash mouth football when we choose to, and make better halftime adjustments, then this right here could yield significant dividends from last year and also help us go further in December and January.

5. Defensive backfield. Ramsay, Kohou, Needham (maybe?), Bonner, & Cam Smith and possibly another free agent, we need one of them to lock up the boundary corner position opposite Ramsay, and Kohou needs to do better in the slot.

6. Defensive coaching. Weaver needs to adapt his scheme to fit our players. That means more man coverage, and don’t put too much on Kohou in the slot so he doesn’t have to think so much, so we see more of the 2022 Kohou as opposed to the 2023 Kohou.

7. defensive Personnel. If we can re-sign AVG and maybe add a relatively cheap edge defender and a nose tackle, we should be okay on this side of the ball. We’ll get Chubb and Philips back mid season which will be a big boost, and we should still have enough talent in our front 7 to get after the QB.

In summary, if we improve in the above areas, we should be able to win a playoff game or two, and actually be better than we were in 2023, espeicially if we can stay a bit more healthy.

how likely is it that the interior OL can improve given Hunt and Williams are gone and they were both very good?

 

[andyahs]

Me thinks OP likes attention

At our forum expense.

 

[Springveldt]

how likely is it that the interior OL can improve given Hunt and Williams are gone and they were both very good?

I'm not sure they will improve over the projected starters from last season but I'm sure whoever they bring in will be better than Cotton, Eichenberg and Jones who had over 1800 snaps between them last year. It's not like Williams, Wynn and Hunt played all 18 games. So in that sense, I would expect an improved OL just based on that fact alone.

I think Hunt may be gone looking at the Kevin Dotson signing in LA (3 years, $48M) or the Ezra Cleveland signing (3 years, $28.5M) as both of those deals are above what PFF was predicting for them and they had Hunt at $17M a year.