The Bet

[Kyndig]

how likely is it that the interior OL can improve given Hunt and Williams are gone and they were both very good?

So to project how we can fix the Oline, first we have to analyze what happened last year and consider what are options and needs are this year.

The line was really good for the first few games last year and when our offense was most explosive it was because:

-Left Tackle. Terron Armstead was healthy, but also Kendall Lamm filled in for him quite well so we had the Left tackle position pretty well shored up both with our starter early in the year before his body started breaking down and later in the season when Kendal Lamm filled in for him. However, Armstead will not be back next year, and we could look to draft one of the top tackles in this draft and plug him in at left guard so that he can learn from Armstead. I’d also look to re-sign Kendal Lamm as he wouldn’t break the bank and he proved to be a good backup at LT. Then you’d have options when Terron Armstead inevitably misses a third of the season, and you’ll have his replacement developed and ready to go next year when Armstead retires, and one of the interior spots locked down with our developing rookie.

-Left Guard. Isaiah Wynn was really outstanding when he was starting at left guard. He was arguably even more effective than Robert hunt was on the other side in the running game (just because of the success they had running left vs right), but unfortunately, he has injury issues as he did before we brought him in, another Grier special in that he seems to like to bring in players with an extensive injury history, but I digress. We can’t have Eichenberg starting at any of these positions for a large number of games unless he improves significantly this off season which is possible, because the drop off from Wynn to Eichenberg, or Conner Williams to Eichenberg at center was precipitous. So both guard positions need to be addressed, not just Robert Hunts right guard position but the left guard too because we can’t count on getting what we need out of Eichenberg, although there is hope he will improve and take a leap this off season, but we can’t count on it, it would just be a bonus.

-Center. Conner Williams is coming back off of an injury, there are really three options here:
A. Resign him on the cheap because he’s coming off of an injury and bring him back to start at center. I don’t like this option because what do we do if he gets hurt again.

B. Re-sign him, but bring him back to fill in one of the open guard positions if we draft someone like JPJ or Graham Barton. Then we’d only have one hole to fill on the interior at the other guard position which we could fill with a solid but reasonably priced free agent, preferably one that doesn’t have an extensive injury history.

C. Sign a free agent that can come in and either start or compete with Eichenberg for the position.

-Right Guard. You saw my notes on Conner Williams, or another free agent at this position that we can afford. We can probably go to the $8 million a year or so range here and might be able to get a decent player such as maybe Dalton Risner from Minnesota?

-Right tackle. We are set at as we extended Austin Jackson Last year.

So, my thought is that in the NFL draft for our first 2 picks we will either go something like this:

-Tackle, WR
-Center, WR
-Edge, Center (or tackle)
-Tackle, Center (either order)

So that’s why we’ll have to:

-either re-sign Conner Williams and one more free agent
-or sign two new free agent interior Olinemen if we can’t re-sign Conner.
-We’ll need to use at least one of our first two picks on a lineman a tackle or center and I would guess tackle if it’s first round even though it might actually be better to draft someone like JPJ if Pittsburgh doesn’t draft him first
-We’ll need to resign Kendal Lamm and Isaiah Wynn or some other comparable players
-Wildcard. *Liam Eichenberg takes a leap in his third year which possible but not guaranteed.

In any case depending upon how it all shakes out, there is an opportunity to improve our Oline from where it broke down last year due to a lack of quality depth at center and left guard even though we also will likely have to replace Robert Hunt where there is speculation he will be signed for $16 million per year.

 

[tay0365]

Q: Do you believe some teams load up to try and win a Super Bowl, believing they have a short window for various reasons, and feel it is important to go for it fully knowing the bill will come due and the consequences will be felt for a few years?

A: Yes, without doubt.

Q: Do you believe this is a reasonable thing to do?

A: Depends. If you feel your team is close, and the window may close soon to be this close, you have to go for it. Getting to the Superbowl is tough enough, but winning one is very rare, you feel you have a chance now, you take it, and if you then have to re-stock your roster, with a year or two where the cap stops you from doing anything, then you take thar chance.

Q: Do you believe he Dolphins just tried to load up in 2023 to take advantage of Tua being on his last cheap year from his rookie contract?

A: No. They saw a way to make their team better with Hill coming aboard, and they took it. Every time they saw a player, trade, or pick they thought could continue to make them better, they took it.

Q: Whose idea do you think this was?

A: To make the team better, and not think twice every time they saw another piece that could improve them? I think it was a combination of Ross/Grier/McDaniel.

Q: In Miami’s case, was this a reasonable thing to do?

A: In my view, absolutely. Miami was the best team last year, and if not for yet again a huge amount of Injuries hurting Miami, Miami would have been the #1 seed...Miami would have been tough to slow down in the playoffs on offense, and hard to keep up with the offense with how Miami was playing defense. Miami did not fail because they went fully in, they failed because of injuries. The name of game is to become good enough to win championship, Miami was, but bad luck stopped that from fully happening.

Q: How well did they execute the all-in?

A: Perfectly, because this year, with a few moves here and there, Miami will again still be one of the more talented team, and it did not hurt them as much as some thought.

Q: Who do you blame?

A: I blame all three for such a brilliant move. Ross for not being so cheap, to try and make the Dolphins better, Grier for be smart enough to bring the right pieces, and McDaniel for getting the most out of them.

Q: Am I being too pessimistic?

A: Yes. You are so worried about a future that may never happen, that you're not seeing what Miami has built, and it's not a talented team that will eventually bring Miami ti Cap hell, but a team that has a bigtime nucleus, that Miami can get rid of players, replace with others, and will still be a top team for year to come. This is the type of team you look at and get excited each year, because each year there are few if any teams that can hang with them if the injuries just stopped, or just happened with the league average, and not leading the league.

 

[phishfan4life]

but I do think people on here are overreacting to the players we are letting go (outside of Wilkins). X was done and has not been the same guy the last couple of years - to be expected though, dude will be 31 soon! Jerome Baker was just a guy, far from playmaking LB. Solid but replaceable. Robert Hunt has been good, good but not great, he's replaceable and apparently wanted more money. Ogbah also has disappeared, and his departure should come as no surprise. The only player we are losing that REALLY hurts is Wilkins, we tried to keep him here but he wanted top tier money. We still have another very good DT in Seiler. Everyone else is replaceable and doubt we notice their missing next season.

Agree with this 100%. Some people (OP from the looks of it) are acting like we are going to be taking the field next year without arguably the top 2 WR's in the league, an upgrade at TE, a good RB corp, a QB that just went to the pro-bowl, a top CB, very good S and 2 really good edge rushers. The fact that the edge rushers won't be available right away hurts, but they should be back at a reasonable time (hopefully). OL is and always will be our big question mark. If we can upgrade there at all, I think we're in decent shape, and by no means looking at a talentless roster like a team that has mortgaged it's future for a win now approach.

 

[rent this space]

Q- What do you think about threads like this?
A- It just seems like another wordy example of confirmation bias, he has his opinions and he keeps writing the same things over and over
Q- should the OP be attacked for this type of thread?
A- I'm so glad you asked that question, we are supposed to attack the post, not the poster but he kind of deserved it
Q- But wait, aren't you just encouraging others to break the TOS?
A- Wow you are good at this, NO, I would never advocate for that. But at the same time you can't come with weak takes and not expect some of it.
Q- Well, thanks for joining us, anything new on the horizon for you?
A- I have a few projects in the works, that I can't comment on now but you will see them soon
- Our guest has been Rent This Space, we'll be right back...

 

[phinsforlife]

I'm not sure they will improve over the projected starters from last season but I'm sure whoever they bring in will be better than Cotton, Eichenberg and Jones who had over 1800 snaps between them last year. It's not like Williams, Wynn and Hunt played all 18 games. So in that sense, I would expect an improved OL just based on that fact alone.

I think Hunt may be gone looking at the Kevin Dotson signing in LA (3 years, $48M) or the Ezra Cleveland signing (3 years, $28.5M) as both of those deals are above what PFF was predicting for them and they had Hunt at $17M a year.

well i agree can be better than those three!

 

[phinsforlife]

Q: Do you believe some teams load up to try and win a Super Bowl, believing they have a short window for various reasons, and feel it is important to go for it fully knowing the bill will come due and the consequences will be felt for a few years?

A: Yes, without doubt.

Q: Do you believe this is a reasonable thing to do?

A: Depends. If you feel your team is close, and the window may close soon to be this close, you have to go for it. Getting to the Superbowl is tough enough, but winning one is very rare, you feel you have a chance now, you take it, and if you then have to re-stock your roster, with a year or two where the cap stops you from doing anything, then you take thar chance.

Q: Do you believe he Dolphins just tried to load up in 2023 to take advantage of Tua being on his last cheap year from his rookie contract?

A: No. They saw a way to make their team better with Hill coming aboard, and they took it. Every time they saw a player, trade, or pick they thought could continue to make them better, they took it.

Q: Whose idea do you think this was?

A: To make the team better, and not think twice every time they saw another piece that could improve them? I think it was a combination of Ross/Grier/McDaniel.

Q: In Miami’s case, was this a reasonable thing to do?

A: In my view, absolutely. Miami was the best team last year, and if not for yet again a huge amount of Injuries hurting Miami, Miami would have been the #1 seed...Miami would have been tough to slow down in the playoffs on offense, and hard to keep up with the offense with how Miami was playing defense. Miami did not fail because they went fully in, they failed because of injuries. The name of game is to become good enough to win championship, Miami was, but bad luck stopped that from fully happening.

Q: How well did they execute the all-in?

A: Perfectly, because this year, with a few moves here and there, Miami will again still be one of the more talented team, and it did not hurt them as much as some thought.

Q: Who do you blame?

A: I blame all three for such a brilliant move. Ross for not being so cheap, to try and make the Dolphins better, Grier for be smart enough to bring the right pieces, and McDaniel for getting the most out of them.

Q: Am I being too pessimistic?

A: Yes. You are so worried about a future that may never happen, that you're not seeing what Miami has built, and it's not a talented team that will eventually bring Miami ti Cap hell, but a team that has a bigtime nucleus, that Miami can get rid of players, replace with others, and will still be a top team for year to come. This is the type of team you look at and get excited each year, because each year there are few if any teams that can hang with them if the injuries just stopped, or just happened with the league average, and not leading the league.

interesting thoughts. i struggle with the injury excuse because the bulk of the injuries were on defense, but it was the offense that really broke down at the end of the season

 

[phinsforlife]

So to project how we can fix the Oline, first we have to analyze what happened last year and consider what are options and needs are this year.

The line was really good for the first few games last year and when our offense was most explosive it was because:

-Left Tackle. Terron Armstead was healthy, but also Kendall Lamm filled in for him quite well so we had the Left tackle position pretty well shored up both with our starter early in the year before his body started breaking down and later in the season when Kendal Lamm filled in for him. However, Armstead will not be back next year, and we could look to draft one of the top tackles in this draft and plug him in at left guard so that he can learn from Armstead. I’d also look to re-sign Kendal Lamm as he wouldn’t break the bank and he proved to be a good backup at LT. Then you’d have options when Terron Armstead inevitably misses a third of the season, and you’ll have his replacement developed and ready to go next year when Armstead retires, and one of the interior spots locked down with our developing rookie.

-Left Guard. Isaiah Wynn was really outstanding when he was starting at left guard. He was arguably even more effective than Robert hunt was on the other side in the running game (just because of the success they had running left vs right), but unfortunately, he has injury issues as he did before we brought him in, another Grier special in that he seems to like to bring in players with an extensive injury history, but I digress. We can’t have Eichenberg starting at any of these positions for a large number of games unless he improves significantly this off season which is possible, because the drop off from Wynn to Eichenberg, or Conner Williams to Eichenberg at center was precipitous. So both guard positions need to be addressed, not just Robert Hunts right guard position but the left guard too because we can’t count on getting what we need out of Eichenberg, although there is hope he will improve and take a leap this off season, but we can’t count on it, it would just be a bonus.

-Center. Conner Williams is coming back off of an injury, there are really three options here:
A. Resign him on the cheap because he’s coming off of an injury and bring him back to start at center. I don’t like this option because what do we do if he gets hurt again.

B. Re-sign him, but bring him back to fill in one of the open guard positions if we draft someone like JPJ or Graham Barton. Then we’d only have one hole to fill on the interior at the other guard position which we could fill with a solid but reasonably priced free agent, preferably one that doesn’t have an extensive injury history.

C. Sign a free agent that can come in and either start or compete with Eichenberg for the position.

-Right Guard. You saw my notes on Conner Williams, or another free agent at this position that we can afford. We can probably go to the $8 million a year or so range here and might be able to get a decent player such as maybe Dalton Risner from Minnesota?

-Right tackle. We are set at as we extended Austin Jackson Last year.

So, my thought is that in the NFL draft for our first 2 picks we will either go something like this:

-Tackle, WR
-Center, WR
-Edge, Center (or tackle)
-Tackle, Center (either order)

So that’s why we’ll have to:

-either re-sign Conner Williams and one more free agent
-or sign two new free agent interior Olinemen if we can’t re-sign Conner.
-We’ll need to use at least one of our first two picks on a lineman a tackle or center and I would guess tackle if it’s first round even though it might actually be better to draft someone like JPJ if Pittsburgh doesn’t draft him first
-We’ll need to resign Kendal Lamm and Isaiah Wynn or some other comparable players
-Wildcard. *Liam Eichenberg takes a leap in his third year which possible but not guaranteed.

In any case depending upon how it all shakes out, there is an opportunity to improve our Oline from where it broke down last year due to a lack of quality depth at center and left guard even though we also will likely have to replace Robert Hunt where there is speculation he will be signed for $16 million per year.

you left resigning jake f'ing bailey out of this very good analysis!!!!

 

[phinsforlife]

From Barry Jackson FWIW, still some small hope although if they pull this off, not sure what gets kicked to the future and how it will all look:

To make a competitive offer for Wilkins and/or Hunt, Miami would need to clear out more than $50 million in cap space in the coming days, not only to be cap compliant by Wednesday’s deadline, but to have enough room to address other positions. The Dolphins’ easiest path to creating considerable cap space is by restructuring or extending contracts for Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb and Tyreek Hill. Extending Tua Tagovailoa could chop $10 million off his $23.1 million 2024 cap hit, but those contract talks are expected to stretch well into the spring or summer, ESPN reported. Among Miami’s other free agent offensive linemen beyond Hunt, the Dolphins have said they would like to retain left guard Isaiah Wynn, who played well before a quadriceps injury ended his season in Week 7.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article286430565.html#storylink=cpy

 

[rent this space]

I'm good with Hunt and Wynn at guard next year

 

[phinsforlife]

I'm good with Hunt and Wynn at guard next year

wynn is interesting. very productive, when healthy. but another big dice roll to rely on him. hunt sadly still sounds gonzo but we shall see. i would personally prioritize the ol because it is very important for how our offense runs, but what do i know

 

[Kyndig]

From Barry Jackson FWIW, still some small hope although if they pull this off, not sure what gets kicked to the future and how it will all look:

To make a competitive offer for Wilkins and/or Hunt, Miami would need to clear out more than $50 million in cap space in the coming days, not only to be cap compliant by Wednesday’s deadline, but to have enough room to address other positions. The Dolphins’ easiest path to creating considerable cap space is by restructuring or extending contracts for Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb and Tyreek Hill. Extending Tua Tagovailoa could chop $10 million off his $23.1 million 2024 cap hit, but those contract talks are expected to stretch well into the spring or summer, ESPN reported. Among Miami’s other free agent offensive linemen beyond Hunt, the Dolphins have said they would like to retain left guard Isaiah Wynn, who played well before a quadriceps injury ended his season in Week 7.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article286430565.html#storylink=cpy

So, here’s the thing. Imagine your Chris Grier.

Christian Wilkins. $24-$25 million per year. for a defensive tackle. The entire salary cap space for the Baltimore Ravens Defensive line last year was guess? $18 million. That’s it. For all of them. And they rotated 4 inside and 4 outside. You’ve just hired anthony Weaver, who just came over from the Ravens. Last year, we had basically Wilkins and Sieler taking 90% of the snaps inside. There was not much of a rotation.

I know they’re injured, but Chubb & Phillips are coming back on the edge. You need to sign Van Ginkel, unless his number gets stupid, but even if it does, I think you still sign him. So now you have Avg, Chubb, Phillips, & Sieler. That’s a lot of pressure and Saks, and maybe you sign Jadaveon Clowney for $4 or $5 million something like this. You know what you need here? Nose tackles. Big space eating guys who command double teams, and can stop the run. So, what do you do? Probably resign RaeKwon Davis, for $4 or $5 per at most, and then go get another big man for the center, someone 340-360 pounds. There are a couple of cats you could look at in the draft but also in free agency. So in other words, you don’t replace Wilkins, you do something different, and paying him that much money isn’t worth it because that 10 Sack season, is probably an outlier when you consider all of the other guys he was playing with, Chubb, Phillips, Sieler, Avg, etc. You’ve got plenty to get pressure on the QB, create forced fumbles, disrupt the passing game etc. What you need now are some big men to play the zero technique. So in other words, re-sign Raekwon Davis, and bring in another zero to eat up blocks and stuff the run whilst your edge player create mayhem and bring the ruckus. You never needed to pay Christian Wilkins that much, especially now with the Baltimore system we will be running and with who we have at edge. Don’t need to spend that money to replace Wilkins. You need more bodies for the rotation.

Robert Hunt. Free agents? John Runyon from Green Bay, Damien Lewis from Seattle, Dalton Risner, from the Vikings, there are some good players you can bring in who will be maybe half the price of Robert Hunt who could play well, or re-sign Conner Williams, and draft a tackle that will play guard that you can kick outside next year as we discussed in the last post.

Don;t need to spend $15 million on a guard or $24 million on a defensive tackle.

 

[phinsforlife]

So, here’s the thing. Imagine your Chris Grier.

Christian Wilkins. $24-$25 million per year. for a defensive tackle. The entire salary cap space for the Baltimore Ravens Defensive line last year was guess? $18 million. That’s it. For all of them. And they rotated 4 inside and 4 outside. You’ve just hired anthony Weaver, who just came over from the Ravens. Last year, we had basically Wilkins and Sieler taking 90% of the snaps inside. There was not much of a rotation.

I know they’re injured, but Chubb & Phillips are coming back on the edge. You need to sign Van Ginkel, unless his number gets stupid, but even if it does, I think you still sign him. So now you have Avg, Chubb, Phillips, & Sieler. That’s a lot of pressure and Saks, and maybe you sign Jadaveon Clowney for $4 or $5 million something like this. You know what you need here? Nose tackles. Big space eating guys who command double teams, and can stop the run. So, what do you do? Probably resign RaeKwon Davis, for $4 or $5 per at most, and then go get another big man for the center, someone 340-360 pounds. There are a couple of cats you could look at in the draft but also in free agency. So in other words, you don’t replace Wilkins, you do something different, and paying him that much money isn’t worth it because that 10 Sack season, is probably an outlier when you consider all of the other guys he was playing with, Chubb, Phillips, Sieler, Avg, etc. You’ve got plenty to get pressure on the QB, create forced fumbles, disrupt the passing game etc. What you need now are some big men to play the zero technique. So in other words, re-sign Raekwon Davis, and bring in another zero to eat up blocks and stuff the run whilst your edge player create mayhem and bring the ruckus. You never needed to pay Christian Wilkins that much, especially now with the Baltimore system we will be running and with who we have at edge. Don’t need to spend that money to replace Wilkins. You need more bodies for the rotation.

Robert Hunt. Free agents? John Runyon from Green Bay, Damien Lewis from Seattle, Dalton Risner, from the Vikings, there are some good players you can bring in who will be maybe half the price of Robert Hunt who could play well, or re-sign Conner Williams, and draft a tackle that will play guard that you can kick outside next year as we discussed in the last post.

Don;t need to spend $15 million on a guard or $24 million on a defensive tackle.

i completely agree with you on AVG!!!! some guys get kind of screwed. i think he might be really good, maybe even better than chubb or close to same ballpark. but a bit of a late bloomer, doesnt have the draft pedigree, wasnt able to ever put a full year of production on the field because he was never a day 1 starter. so the number for AVG i think will be reasonable. bottom line that guy produces on the field, and also seems to not be injury prone

 

[tay0365]

interesting thoughts. i struggle with the injury excuse because the bulk of the injuries were on defense, but it was the offense that really broke down at the end of the season

Mostly defense, but our O-line all year had injury issues, where at one point we were only able to run one starter out there with four backups late in the season.

At receiver Waddle was injured, and missed many games, as well as later with Tyreek, even when they played late, they played nowhere close to 100%, and looked it. In the final games, they rarely played together in the biggest games of the season also.

We found a superstar RB in Achane, then he got hurt, and never got back on the same insane track he was on before injury. Mostert was having a career year, especially scoring TDs, then he got hurt and we never saw him back at the most critical point in the season. Even Tua hurt his hand, and was not throwing the same.

I can't be 100% sure (Can't think of any), but this past season had us have more critical Injuries then any other in a very long time.

 

[phinsforlife]

Mostly defense, but our O-line all year had injury issues, where at one point we were only able to run one starter out there with four backups late in the season.

At receiver Waddle was injured, and missed many games, as well as later with Tyreek, even when they played late, they played nowhere close to 100%, and looked it. In the final games, they rarely played together in the biggest games of the season also.

We found a superstar RB in Achane, then he got hurt, and never got back on the same insane track he was on before injury. Mostert was having a career year, especially scoring TDs, then he got hurt and we never saw him back at the most critical point in the season. Even Tua hurt his hand, and was not throwing the same.

I can't be 100% sure (Can't think of any), but this past season had us have more critical Injuries then any other in a very long time.

the thing that worries me about the OL is it is tough to rely on Armstead, and now we are seemingly dropping hunt and williams, so it is challenging for me to believe the OL will be better next year. again if it were me, the way our offense runs, i would prioritize OL. we will see i guess what they end up doing!

 

[gofins60]

wynn is interesting. very productive, when healthy. but another big dice roll to rely on him. hunt sadly still sounds gonzo but we shall see. i would personally prioritize the ol because it is very important for how our offense runs, but what do i know

Although it feels odd to say this, IMO the only starting o-lineman who should keep his job is Jackson. However, I know that Armstead is still going to be the starting LT, even though I'd prefer to replace him with Lamm for now and draft his eventual replacement. IMO, Wynn and Williams are damaged goods and should be replaced. If Hunt wants a big contract, replace him too; it's not like he's elite.

I say go "all-in" on finally fixing the o-line. Get competent veteran FAs for LG, C, and RG, and also draft a good Center and maybe a Guard or two later in the draft (or even UDFAs after the draft). The veterans can start, and then the rookies can work their way into the line-up once they're ready.