I struggle with that one. I suspect that scenario is rarely seen (I'm assuming an "average" player is never ranked in R1). It's more likely a top player (no one knows if they're 'elite' or not) ranked, say, 15th or a position of need ranked 19th. And we all can name "can't miss" talent who busted. I can just imagine the fan reaction if Miami took Trubinsky because he was rated above an available Willis, and, no, no one knows how THEIR team's board shakes out. I'll repeat, . . . of those in FH who rank draftees, about 80% (I made that up) will be disappointed when Miami's pick doesn't match theirs. In a situation requiring educated guesses, there is no "right," there's only VERY wrong (insert Pat White).
Yeah, my point was PW is the closest my old memory can come to picking someone FAR above ranking just because of need. More often, it SEEMS the rankings of every player picked day 1 are, within reason, picked close to ranking, and that's not accounting for interviews, fit, and other factors. Too many seem to think there is A draft board, not 32.
Fair enough Pat White ended up being a terrible 2nd round pick. Someone fell in the phins brain trust fell in love with his skill set but never dugg deep enough to see if the small guy was tough enough. We got one of the same last year in the kid from Texas tech who continued to cough up the ball. Being a small athlete in the NFL is usually a huge strike against you. Even the tough Welker suscumbed to concussions.
I'm willing to be proven wrong (gently), but as long as I've been watching the lead up to the draft, I've yet to see a mock on the order of "The Pats always pick pure BPA so they will pick Barry Sanders." Nope, every mock lists the projected player with a comment mentioning team needs. Why would they do that if a team was known to pick pure BPA? I've never seen an article or talking head mention an NFL team as pure BPA. Tunsil certainly wasn't pure BPA. Almost every fan with a pulse saw OG as a need. I admit, perennial top 8 teams have fewer holes and can gamble more (e.g., a R3 QB), but a draft full of pure BPA? I've never seen it. And s others have mentioned, what if, for example, the Pats pure BPA in the 1st three rounds is QB? Every team knows NE won't carry 5 QBs (Brady, backup, 3 rookies). Why would a team trade when they know NE will HAVE TO cut 2-3? Yes, I know, that example is nearly nonexistent, but if there was justifiable evidence of it's superiority, teams would use it. I suspect we'll just agree to have different perspectives. All that said, pure BPA in rounds 5,6,7? I'm in.
