this would have been tannehill's breakout season | Page 16 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

this would have been tannehill's breakout season

Sons Of Shula said:
IDK. Pick the game and let's watch the tape.
Click to expand...


How will the tape tell you that the offensive line is getting eaten alive because the opposing defensive linemen are able to pin their ears back, enjoying a big lead on the scoreboard, versus the offensive line's simply being inept in their own right?
 
<O> said:
How will the tape tell you that the offensive line is getting eaten alive because the opposing defensive linemen are able to pin their ears back, enjoying a big lead on the scoreboard, versus the offensive line's simply being inept in their own right?
Click to expand...

IDK. Pick the game and let's watch the tape.
 
Sons Of Shula said:
Every game is different. Every game is situational. Tape doesn't lie.

http://finheaven.com/threads/what-its-like-to-study-film-with-bill-belichick.342780/
Click to expand...


With that degree of variation, one would have to watch the tape of a team's offensive line over many games, and watch the tape of every other team's offensive line over many games, to determine exactly where a team's offensive line falls within the league in terms of talent.

Is there anyone doing that in such a way that the human error likely inherent in that enterprise is controlled for?
 
<O> said:
With that degree of variation, one would have to watch the tape of a team's offensive line over many games, and watch the tape of every other team's offensive line over many games, to determine exactly where a team's offensive line falls within the league in terms of talent.
Click to expand...

Yep.

<O> said:
Is there anyone doing that in such a way that the human error likely inherent in that enterprise is controlled for?
Click to expand...

Where are statistical measures and analytics derived from?
 
Sons Of Shula said:
Where are statistical measures and analytics derived from?
Click to expand...


Many are based on the yard at their most fundamental level, while others involve some subjectivity, such as whether a quarterback was "under pressure."
 
Here's some analytical food for thought.



This is why tape study is of absolute importance.
 
<O> said:
Many are based on the yard at their most fundamental level, while others involve some subjectivity, such as whether a quarterback was "under pressure."
Click to expand...

Analytics are fine for studying trends and identifying general areas of concern but do tell you the specifics of what is actually happening during the game. And even if they could isolate issues down to blocking or QB play, they are backwards looking and long range. If you want to control for a single variable (i.e. the QB) you'd have to play a sufficient number of games both with and without the QB and hold everything else constant (which is not even possible). Then do the analysis to show either (A) the QB that is no longer playing was not the problem and shouldn't have been replaced or (B) he was but he is gone already. Tell me how that helps.

IMO, analytics are used by teams but do not replace file study and never will. The fact that 52.983764839374646288474626484764% of the time a team's running play on third and less than 1 fails to produce a first down (while the league average is 64.98438474677938746462823746478284764% and your next opponent is allowing 45.099474673848464638374648747% on grass but 53.937748947747478847474847474774% on turf except for games after 4pm one the road which are 55.884736738367436467464653636% and 60.9389837674884676466474%) does not tell the coach why and isn't sufficient to address the problem. They have to watch the film and determine why the plays are not working often enough.
 
Sons Of Shula said:
Certainly, and by far. But all this QBwinz talk is so ironic being that even modern day and future HOF QB's like Brady and Rodgers have only won SB's with top 5 defensive play.
Click to expand...

You need a defense no doubt but once you couple that with an above average QB your chance of winning increases exponentially. I'd take an elite D over an elite Offense any day and every day, the numbers support it but you still need a balanced team and you can't have a horrible QB taking snaps and expect to win the Super Bowl without everything going perfect.
 
Sons Of Shula said:
Here's some analytical food for thought.



This is why tape study is of absolute importance.
Click to expand...



And with that you're illustrating precisely the strength of film study -- a very small sample of play, with regard to which analytics could have a large margin of error.

The strengths and limitations of analytics and film study are precisely the converse of each other -- film study is great for small samples, and suffers with regard to larger samples. Analytics precisely the opposite.

Nobody questions whether the Super Bowl winner is a good team, and says "wait -- I need to check the film first." The large 19- or 20-game sample of play throughout the season, along with the statistical results, tells the tale.

Likewise, nobody wonders whether Peyton Manning is a good QB and says "wait -- I need to check the film first." His career statistics are sufficient, and offer much more complete a picture of the kind of player he was than any reasonable sample of film would.

Additionally, one would have to watch an amount of film that's hardly humanly possible, while controlling for human error (which isn't possible), to determine for example where exactly the Dolphins' offensive line falls in relation to all of the other lines of the league.

So when there is a small sample of play, by all means, use the film to evaluate it -- film is the far stronger means of analysis in those instances, and can often uncover where the statistics have gone awry. When the sample is large, however, statistics provide the stronger analytic medium, far more free from human bias.
 
I promise I'm not try to stir the pot but I'm sure what I'm about to say will ruffle some feathers. Has anyone ever seen our players more complimentary towards our QB ever? It seems like every day an offensive player is speaking out about how great Jay Cutler is. Maybe it's just rallying around him but I see it so often, never posted on here mind you, I wonder if it's real.
 
NY8123 said:
You need a defense no doubt but once you couple that with an above average QB your chance of winning increases exponentially. I'd take an elite D over an elite Offense any day and every day, the numbers support it but you still need a balanced team and you can't have a horrible QB taking snaps and expect to win the Super Bowl without everything going perfect.
Click to expand...


Those two parts of the team (assuming we're talking about pass defense) are precise complements of each other. The weaker your quarterback, the stronger your pass defense needs to be, and vice-versa.

These days (post-2004) average-level QBs aren't winning Super Bowls unless they have extremely good pass defenses.

And again the difficulty there is in 1) compiling the large number of defensive players to pull that off in the first place, given that the draft is a crap shoot, and 2) keeping them healthy and under contract.

The far "easier" method is to have one of the league's best quarterbacks, given that quarterbacks are protected from injury by the league's rules, and keeping one player under contract is easier than keeping let's say six or seven. Easier is in quotes, however, because it isn't easy to find one of them, either.

What's very easy, by contrast, is to be stuck at the average level of play as a team, with an average QB, an inability to amass the pass defense necessary to win big with him, and an inability to draft at the top of the first round, where the franchise QBs likely lie.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom