Why is everyone so surprised? | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Why is everyone so surprised?

JakeemThe Dream said:
Fact-a thing that is indisputably the case
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The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data, is indeed an indisputable fact.

That doesn't mean that number of wins is guaranteed to happen. It means it's expected, and anything else is unexpected. What's expected is a fact, however.
 
<O> said:
The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data, is indeed an indisputable fact.

That doesn't mean that number of wins is guaranteed to happen. It means it's expected, and anything else is unexpected. What's expected is a fact, however.
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I expect to live to 90
 
<O> said:
The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data, is indeed an indisputable fact.

That doesn't mean that number of wins is guaranteed to happen. It means it's expected, and anything else is unexpected. What's expected is a fact, however.
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You should let this one go bro.
 
<O> said:
I suspect that people didn't expect it to be such a problem because they expected the replacement QB (Cutler) to play much better.

Just because the replacement QB plays very poorly (YPA of 5.9 for example) doesn't mean Tannehill is suddenly all-world.

Tannehill's presence takes the offense from the mess it's in now and raises its performance to simply the average level. His presence alone doesn't make the offense like the Saints' or the Eagles', where the QB's performance alone makes the offense one of the best in the league.

I suspect that in the end this team will finish between 4-12 and 6-10. With Tannehill and all else equal, that likely would've been 8-8.
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You are spot on sir. Vegas had our over/under at 7.5 in May. Well before Tanny went down. I do wish we had him though. As well as we were winning close games I think we had a good chance of going 9-7/10-6 with RT.
 
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<O> said:
The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data, is indeed an indisputable fact.

That doesn't mean that number of wins is guaranteed to happen. It means it's expected, and anything else is unexpected. What's expected is a fact, however.
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There's way too many variables that have to be taken into account. The main one is Tannehill was getting better last year before he got hurt. Who's to say he doesn't continue to progress? How can anyone make a projection yet call it a fact? Apparently I thought a fact was something totally different lol No reason to argue..this has gone way over my head lol Sounds more like a projection based off of "The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data." Aren't you using those calculations to project the potential number of wins? The definition of a fact is something that is true or something that has occurred or has been proven correct. How can something that never happened be considered a fact?
 
lurking said:
Agreed, that's all we're doing is speculating, except for one poster who thinks everything he says is fact.
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I think he's projecting based off of Tannehill's past. I don't see how calculations based off of RT's career can be factual until it actually were to happen. Maybe I'm wrong or there's some weird loophole that I'm oblivious too lol Based off of my family's history, I should live until 80. Is that a fact when I can get hit by a car tomorrow? I'm lost (: The definition of a fact is something that is true or something that has occurred or has been proven correct. Google seems to think so anyways lol PHINS UP!! I think i'll let this one go.
 
I think the adjective "surprised" is too simplified. There was a reasonable expectation, first and foremost, that we had perhaps solved the HC puzzle. That assumption is trending in the wrong direction now.

In addition -- I believe the fan base reasonably expected internal issues like Ajayi where in the past. And of course -- for us dreamers we imagined Tunsil and the OL to be moving in a positive direction.

Add to that the seemingly "loaded talent" on O with WR and RB -- we could realistically score some points -- especially with the expectation Gase could be a legit O wizzer...

But we all forgot who built this house of cards and the fact that stupidity rolls down hill...

Oh well. The good news is we won't suck enough to grab one of the elite talents @QB in the draft so our collective karma seems intact.
 
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JakeemThe Dream said:
There's way too many variables that have to be taken into account. The main one is Tannehill was getting better last year before he got hurt. Who's to say he doesn't continue to progress? How can anyone make a projection yet call it a fact? Apparently I thought a fact was something totally different lol No reason to argue..this has gone way over my head lol Sounds more like a projection based off of "The calculation of an expected number of wins contributed by a QB, based on his typical level of play and large amounts of historical league data." Aren't you using those calculations to project the potential number of wins? The definition of a fact is something that is true or something that has occurred or has been proven correct. How can something that never happened be considered a fact?
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Think about it this way — a calculated number has to be a fact. What that number means to any one person is an opinion.

The life expectancy for any human, for example, is somewhere in the mid-70s. That is a fact. What that number means to any one person is an opinion.

The fact that Ryan Tannehill would be expected to contribute two additional wins to the Dolphins could mean absolutely nothing to you. That expected number of wins is a fact. Whatever that number means to you is your opinion.
 
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<O> said:
Think about it this way — a calculated number has to be a fact. What that number means to any one person is an opinion.

The life expectancy for any human, for example, is somewhere in the mid-70s. That is a fact. What that number means to any one person is an opinion.

The fact that Ryan Tannehill would be expected to contribute two additional wins to the Dolphins could mean absolutely nothing to you. That expected number of wins is a fact. Whatever that number means to you is your opinion.
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Oh okay I get what you're saying. Well in my opinion, I this offense would have never looked like this with Tannehill. Reason being is has never has looked this inept (its abysmal) with Tannehill and I believe he's progressed throughout his career judging from last year. Is that a fact that he would look better due to his continued progression throughout his career especially under Gase? It's my opinion based off of multiple reasons. Not getting on you..Just wondering and if not spin it so I get it better. Thanks brother!!
 
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JakeemThe Dream said:
Oh okay I get what you're saying. Well in my opinion, I this offense would have never looked like this with Tannehill. Reason being is has never has looked this inept (its abysmal) with Tannehill and I believe he's progressed throughout his career judging from last year. Is that a fact that he would look better due to his continued progression throughout his career especially under Gase? It's my opinion based off of multiple reasons. Not getting on you..Just wondering and if not spin it so I get it better. Thanks brother!!
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No doubt. And again, the two additional expected wins is highly significant in that regard. To expect just one player to account for two wins over and above what would be achieved without him is saying a lot when there are 22 starting players in addition to special teams players in this sport.

Think about it like this -- does Julius Thomas account for two wins all by himself, by simply starting above Marqueis Gray? Highly doubtful. In fact the team might do better with Gray.
 
<O> said:
No doubt. And again, the two additional expected wins is highly significant in that regard. To expect just one player to account for two wins over and above what would be achieved without him is saying a lot when there are 22 starting players in addition to special teams players in this sport.

Think about it like this -- does Julius Thomas account for two wins all by himself, by simply starting above Marqueis Gray? Highly doubtful. In fact the team might do better with Gray.
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I get what you're saying. Speaking of Tannehill, Cutler is the worst decision maker we've had in awhile. Just plays like the scramble for the first down, or missing open receivers, it is so plainly obvious. Newton thinks he's god playing a Defense that realized what's the point when our QB throws picks inside his own 40 to make it a 10 pt game which in turn lost us the game. On the bright side, the Ajayi trade doesn't look all that bad (: Drake needs more touches but that will come when Tannehill is back and our offense can actually move the ball. Seems like the other team just wastes the clock every game Vs. the us. Thanks brother!! PHINS UP!!
 
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