I think this is well-described.
I was a buyer of Josh Rosen in the 1st round last year. I thought, if you need a QB, you could roll the dice on him. He was the least favorite of the top four guys for me, but still had some tools, and some compelling technical skills.
But when you undergo the exercise of Bayesian updating your old thesis in the light of new information, that's when the thin string that Josh Rosen was hanging onto in order to keep that 1st round grade last year...snaps.
We knew he was an underachiever at UCLA. We knew this. It was something that had to be rationalized. The problem is, in Arizona he continued the trends that were already in place.
- His 3rd & Makeable efficacy (the way I calculate it) declined each year at UCLA, from 47% to 42% and then all the way down to 38%. And then in Arizona...33%.
- As you point out, he didn't win an impressive amount there, going 8-5, 3-3, and 6-5. Then 3-10 in Arizona.
- His passing efficiency ranked #26 of 99 in 2017, #46 of 104 in 2016, and #53 of 106 in 2015. Obviously it was putrid in Arizona.
At some point in the evaluation, you say...enough with the excuses. This does not smell at all like an elite franchise QB about to happen.