2017 Miami Dolphins Playoffs Scenarios | Page 9 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

2017 Miami Dolphins Playoffs Scenarios

Sirspud said:
It doesn't matter for us who out of KC or SD loses, at least not at this point. We have to beat KC to get the wildcard anyway and will have a tiebreaker over both no matter which one we compete with. Buffalo also doesn't matter in their other games since we either beat them twice, in which case we'll leapfrog them, or go home. Tennessee is the rub. Realistically it's wishful thinking that an 8-5 team will go 1-2 down the stretch. I know we're seeing a game versus LAR and Jax, but that Jax game might not be meaningful for the Jags, in which case even if they play to win they might not really be playing that hard. Definitely have to root hard for SF because the other stuff might not fall into place like one might imagine.
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Great point about Jax. but they have a win over Pittsburgh and could be playing for a BYE regardless of what happens in the PIT vs NE game (NE would tie them if the lose and they'd be within a game of Pit). the Titans are trending down as Mariota is the lowest rated passer in the NFL with 10 TD's and 14 picks. Hopefully he keeps it up and Jimmy G. can steal one Sunday.
 
DolfanISS said:
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but if we win out I think we get there,

Concede Baltimore
We control our own destiny over Buffalo and KC.
Oakland plays Dallas, @Philly @LA Chargers - They have a better shot at going 0-3 then 3-0 and if the do go 3-0 they probably win the division. We need them to lose 1.
Tennessee plays @ SF, then Rams, Jags - We need them to lose 2, very feasible the way they're playing. Mariota has the worst passer rating in the NFL with 10 TD's and 14 picks. They're trending down!

Just win and see what happens.
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I think this is correct.

Dolphins: W-W-W (9-7)
Kansas City (Chargers, Dolphins and Broncos): W-L-W (9-7)
Tennessee finishes (San Fran, Rams and Jags): W-L-L (9-7)
Chargers (Kansas City, Jets and Oakland): L-W-W (9-7)
Baltimore (Cleveland, Indianapolis and Cincinnati): W-W-W (10-6)
Oakland (Dallas, Philadelphia and Chargers): L-W-L (7-9)

In this scenario, Balt is the top WC. Oakland is out, leaving Miami, KC, Tenn, and Chargers. KC wins the AFC West. In a three way tie between Miami, Tenn, and Chargers, here are the rules:

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10.Best net points in all games.
11.Best net touchdowns in all games.
12.Coin toss

Miami wins the tie breaker since they swept Tenn and the Chargers.

If KC losses to the Chargers, then they finish 8-8, the Chargers take the division, and the Dolphins get the WC due to beating the Titans.

Assuming the Dolphins beat KC (big if), in any scenario where the Dolphins and any combination of KC, Tenn, Chargers, end up tied, the Dolphins are the WC team since they would have swept all the teams. This is huge.

The big help that the Dolphins need is for Tenn to lose two. We actually want Baltimore to either win out or lose 2. If they lose 1 and end up 9-7, our sweep of Tenn, KC, and LAC doesn't help us since it will no longer apply. We would have to rely on conference record, which isn't bad. Baltimore losing 1 would be bad if we end up in a tie with Baltimore and only Baltimore for the last WC.
 
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Keep in mind we would have the best conference record of any wildcard team (assuming Jville wins the AFC South division) so a 9-7 Ravens team can be defeated in a tiebreak by us but we need a team Baltimore has not defeated (or we have not lost to) to be in the wildcard mix at 9-7 as well.

Like Raiders/Ravens at 9-7 we screwed

Ravens/Titans - We the 5 seed.
 
Kdawg954 said:
Glad this thread helped build some positive energy around here.

Woke up super late after having no voice from being at the stadium last night but gonna get started on a week 15 thread to keep those good vibes going.

Amazing experience watching those Pats fan walk out the stadium taking the L.
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I pretty much canceled meetings and phone calls. I have not much voice left.

Yeah, it was gorgeous seeing them leave early. They didn't take their lumps very well though. :laugh
 
Kdawg954 said:
Keep in mind we would have the best conference record of any wildcard team (assuming Jville wins the AFC South division) so a 9-7 Ravens team can be defeated in a tiebreak by us but we need a team Baltimore has not defeated (or we have not lost to) to be in the wildcard mix at 9-7 as well.

Like Raiders/Ravens at 9-7 we screwed

Ravens/Titans - We the 5 seed.
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Correct.

If the Titans don't lose two then, Baltimore needs to lose at least 1 (which would be a conf game), then we need a multiple team tie for the last spot as long as the teams are not Balt and Oak. Balt and either KC or the Chargers would put conf record as the tie breaker and we would get the 6th seed.
 
Also, Tenn beating Jax is not good for us. They would take the division and Jax would have only 2 conf loses.

Jax: W-W-L (11-5)
Tenn: W-L-W (10-6) or W-W-W (11-5)

Would both be bad since either Tenn has a better record than us or they win the division and Jax has a better record than us. Then we are replying on Balt losing at least 1, then getting help from other places.
 
Yeah the Titans falling apart is key. We want Jax to stay alive for the BYE so they beat Tenn in week 17 hopefully handing them they're 2nd loss. I'm optimistic Jax. Keeps winning (Texans, 49ers, Titans) but you never really can trust Blake Bortles. Like I keep saying if Mariota keeps sucking we'll have a good shot if we can win our games.
 
I fully expect the Dolphins to go out and choke on apple sauce Sunday.

But man, if the team that I saw the last two weeks can somehow keep showing up, this team will finish 9-7. Big IF.

I gotta tell you, we got some dumb players, and we got some sloppy players, and we got a quarterback with a dead arm, but we've got what, four wins against teams with winning records? The ability to beat down quality opponents is there, man.

I'm still incredulous that people were calling for Gase's head earlier in the season. The man's as good as advertised when it comes to calling football games. He's gonna give us a chance every week.
 
datruth55 said:
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Not true. Both Tenn and Jax could end up with 8-4 conf records. All others either already have 5 losses in the conference or would need 5 for the Dolphins to catch them on record (Balt).

Also, conf record is the second tie breaker. If the Ravens lose 1 and the Raiders win out, and there are no other 9-7 teams, the Dolphins lose on the first tie breaker.
 
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Titans lose out ending up at 8-8 while the Jags win out ending up at 12-4. If the Jags win out then I believe they will secure the 2nd seed in the AFC behind the Steelers who I believe will get the 1st seed.I think Oakland loses at least one more game. The Ravens probably end up at 10-6 securing the 5th seed. I believe the AFC West title will be decided in this weeks game between the Chiefs & Chargers.

The Dolphins have a tough task ahead. Winning in Buffalo or Kansas City is always tough. Winning in both places in consecutive weeks would be an amazing feat. Especially in December. If by some miracle the Dolphins do win out they will have truly earned that playoff spot. If they get the 6th seed they would most likely be heading to Foxboro to face the Patriots for the 3rd time this season. Another daunting task. In the NFL anything can happen.
 
FinfanInBuffalo said:
Not true. Both Tenn and Jax could end up with 8-4 conf records. All others either already have 5 losses in the conference or would need 5 for the Dolphins to catch them on record (Balt).

Also, conf record is the second tie breaker. If the Ravens lose 1 and the Raiders win out, and there are no other 9-7 teams, the Dolphins lose on the first tie breaker.
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We hold a tie breaker with the chargers, Titans and Chiefs (if we win out). It will be interesting
 
The Titans have been in a free-fall. Mike Mularkey is a trash coach. Always has been, always will be. Mariota is playing with a banged up knee, Matthews is hurt, and that offense is struggling mightily.

I do think there's a good chance Tennessee won't recover from this tailspin, but I could be wrong. I thought Baltimore was pretty much done, and then they whipped us. I guess the Dolphins, much like the Florida Panthers, are the ultimate slump-busters.
 
J. David Wannyheimer said:
The Titans have been in a free-fall. Mike Mularkey is a trash coach. Always has been, always will be. Mariota is playing with a banged up knee, Matthews is hurt, and that offense is struggling mightily.

I do think there's a good chance Tennessee won't recover from this tailspin, but I could be wrong. I thought Baltimore was pretty much done, and then they whipped us. I guess the Dolphins, much like the Florida Panthers, are the ultimate slump-busters.
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When that Baltimore defense has had Jimmy Smith and Ngata on the field, they've been awesome. Not so much without either one.
 
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