Am I the only one that cringes at EVERY single trade up scenario ?

[DolfanISS]

Its a tough call. If we trade up and hit on the QB those picks will likely never be thought of again. If we grab a QB who busts out or ends up being average we'll never stop talking about the picks we gave up to get that QB (see Daniel Thomas and Leonte Carroo, we gave up nothing close to a 1st round pick and most fans never let the fact the we traded up to get them go). I guess I'm a waffler because IU cringe at giving up the picks but also think it's worth the risk as long as they feel really strongly about a QB. If they don't see an enormous gap between QB2 and QB3 just stay put and take QB3. Although something tells me Dolphins land will implode if we don't land QB2.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Its too much when what you have to give up prevents you from executing a sound strategy going foward. As of right now, I havent seen such a crazy projection that fits this definition...

Again, I doubt it takes all 3 1st round picks to get the QB, I really doubt it, I use it strickly to illustrate that even if that was the case, the Fins would still be in a better position than 90% on the NFL when it comes to assets for the next 2 years, with a very good QB prospect on the team.

People being scared that all those assets might not be enough to put Miami over the hump are focusing on the risk of Tua's hip. In reality, if your GM requires that you have 2x 1st, 2x 2nds and a plethora of picks and cap space year in and year out to succeed, this is where you should be seriously concerned.

Agree, with some qualifications. I don't know if there is one poster with 'whatever it takes' who posts it a lot, or multiple posters. He/Those are the ones apparently willing to give too much. For the rest of us, it comes down to opinion of a reasonable price. Two R1 picks? One R1 pick in '20 and 1. I have no problem with this discussion. I would, however, like a thread on what FH thinks Grier/Flo will do. Personally, I think they won't give a lot of assets, but that's just an opinion. I'm not even 100$ certain Tua is the only target at $5.

While many are focusing on the hip, I'm not sold Tua is the 'generational talent' some claim. He looks the part of a potentially elite QB, but that's as far as I'll go. What are the odds he'll be the next JAG? 0.05% 5%? 50? No idea. But the risk is there.

I admit, I'm scarred by the constant use of "gamble," always focusing on requiring a big gamble to win big. 1) By definition, a big gamble carries with it a large chance of failure. I don't like big risks. 2) Miami doesn't have to get the next 'generational talent. It has to get a top QB. Getting a top QB with a lower asset cost sounds good to me. But, yes, I realize there is still a risk

 

[rickd13]

You‘ve got it completely backwards with Tennessee. When Henry and the o-line was dominating, their play action passing game worked. Tannehill was successful. Like every other freaking QB in that same situation.

When the rush attack was slowed or stopped, what game did Tannehill step up and win by slinging it play after play when the defense knew he was going to do it? You’re killing me, Smalls.

Regarding the 49ers, again, they are led by their defense and offensive line. Not their freaking QB!

Did you miss the SB or something?? When the chips were down and his team needed him to throw them back into the game and to win, what’d Garoppolo do?

I live around 49ers fans. It’s funny, pretty much every single Niners fan I know recognizes Jimmy G for what he is. An average-to-slightly-above-average QB. He’s nothing special. And that’s the freaking point.

Nick Bosa was the most impactful addition the Niners had this season. Ask Arik Armstead, who owes Bosa for saving his career.

It’s crazy how little of a clue some fans here have about the 49ers. Or Tennessee.

Neither of their QB’s are better than an ancient Ryan Fitzpatrick. They just play on far better teams.

Unbelievable.

Exactly. That's why many on here like me want to get the best QB possible so that Miami's window for success stays open a lot longer than teams that need so many other unsustainable facets of their team to work for them to have repeated success. Both Tennessee and San Francisco had nearly everything go right for them and they still came up short, meanwhile Kansas City kind of floundered around for the better part of two playoff games and the Super Bowl and still managed to win it all because of elite level play from Patrick Mahomes. Take a look at the analytic numbers of a team like Seattle. The QB play from Wilson carried the success of that team.

 

[NBP81]

While many are focusing on the hip, I'm not sold Tua is the 'generational talent' some claim. He looks the part of a potentially elite QB, but that's as far as I'll go. What are the odds he'll be the next JAG? 0.05% 5%? 50? No idea. But the risk is there.

At some point, you have to let it sink in that more often than not, the consensus is closer to the truth than anything else... Its not perfect by any means, there are alot of outliers, but you have to build a strategy one way or another and I just dont see the value of building a strategy around outliers. There's really nothing out there that would lead you to believe that there isnt a huge gap between QB2 and the rest in this draft, sure everyone could be wrong, but right now, Tua is either the best or second best QB in this draft by a wide margin.

I admit, I'm scarred by the constant use of "gamble," always focusing on requiring a big gamble to win big. 1) By definition, a big gamble carries with it a large chance of failure. I don't like big risks. 2) Miami doesn't have to get the next 'generational talent. It has to get a top QB. Getting a top QB with a lower asset cost sounds good to me. But, yes, I realize there is still a risk

Every decision you make in life is a gamble... I mean everytime you stop at a red light you're gambling. You're weighing the value of your time vs. the odds of getting a ticket or getting into a car crash and we're all very bad at this. We like small wins and will do anything to avoid any kind of loss. Its human nature.

Back on topic. Whether you're fine with good or would rather get generationnal is irrelevant, you dont get to chose. But the more you wait and let people chose before you, the more you are asking for trouble. Every single edge that used to exist are getting arbitraged away at a very fast rate when it comes to QBs...

The only reason the Seahawks got Wilson in the 3rd was his height, that guy was a flat out baller and dropped because he was considered small for the position. In a way, Seattly exploited the overexagerated fear of small QBs by NFL GMs and it paid off. That edge is long gone.

Right or wrong, GMs dont fear size in QB anymore, illustrated by the last 2 1st overall picks. Going foward, teams wont have a choice but to overpay as the position is universally viewed as just franchise makers. This will just make it harder to get anything decent outside the top 15... If the exact replica of Wilson as a prospect was available in this draft, he doesnt get out of the top 10.

Going foward, big risk is going to be the only way to get your hands on any kind of a decent QB...

 

[Kamelion4291]

Agree, with some qualifications. I don't know if there is one poster with 'whatever it takes' who posts it a lot, or multiple posters. He/Those are the ones apparently willing to give too much. For the rest of us, it comes down to opinion of a reasonable price. Two R1 picks? One R1 pick in '20 and 1. I have no problem with this discussion. I would, however, like a thread on what FH thinks Grier/Flo will do. Personally, I think they won't give a lot of assets, but that's just an opinion. I'm not even 100$ certain Tua is the only target at $5.

While many are focusing on the hip, I'm not sold Tua is the 'generational talent' some claim. He looks the part of a potentially elite QB, but that's as far as I'll go. What are the odds he'll be the next JAG? 0.05% 5%? 50? No idea. But the risk is there.

I admit, I'm scarred by the constant use of "gamble," always focusing on requiring a big gamble to win big. 1) By definition, a big gamble carries with it a large chance of failure. I don't like big risks. 2) Miami doesn't have to get the next 'generational talent. It has to get a top QB. Getting a top QB with a lower asset cost sounds good to me. But, yes, I realize there is still a risk

When you're sitting at #5 in the draft with a ton of picks to play with and the discussion turns into "we are giving up too much" in THIS position that we're in, this then qualifies as a unique scenario that we won't get another chance at for awhile. Sure you could stay away from the "gamble", but then next year, the year after etc your options at QB are inarguably worse than they are right now so NOW is the time that you take your shot to try and get that "generational" QB rather than just a top 10.

The real gamble is churning through multiple high draft choices year after year trying to find the QB because you're not getting the cream of the crop and wasting seasons doing it. People don't tend to notice frequency though so that is more palatable to them even if it costs you way more in the end.

Assuming a scenario where you sit at 5, miss out on Tua, take a Herbert/Love, and use your picks for other positions and ALL of them turn out to be good players, do you REALLY think you're a better football team with a top 10 QB and 2 other solidified positions versus having a Mahomes/Jackson/Wilson etc game-changer and two question marks at those other positions? I really don't and that's what all of this really boils down to.

 

[Kamelion4291]

For the love of god, PLEASE just KEEP your picks and choose the best available player that fits a need. We gave up extremely valuable, young, cheap assets in Fitz and Tunsil to acquire the additional early picks, why would you piss the bed and give them away just to move up two spots?!!! We know Burrow and Chase Young will be two of the top 4 picks. If Tua is taken ahead of us, then so be it. Take Herbert. Take Love. If you aren't in love with either of them then take the best available player and take a QB next year. Draft a QB later in the draft. There are so many freaking options that do not involve giving away valuable picks. We have many holes to plug and our front office worked hard to acquire the draft picks necessary to plug those holes. Now use them. Don't blow through your cap space to fill them. USE YOUR PICKS on young, talented , hungry, prospects dying to prove themselves and willing to be developed. Trading up has never worked in the past for this team (Dion Jordan , Leonte Caroo to name a couple) and it's not going to work now.

Don't let the media and stupid fans and their obsession with certain players alter your decision making. Do your job.

Keep. The. Picks.

"Do what we've been doing the last 20 years! It's worked out so well, so let's keep doing it!"

 

[fansinceGWilson]

When you're sitting at #5 in the draft with a ton of picks to play with and the discussion turns into "we are giving up too much" in THIS position that we're in, this then qualifies as a unique scenario that we won't get another chance at for awhile. Sure you could stay away from the "gamble", but then next year, the year after etc your options at QB are inarguably worse than they are right now so NOW is the time that you take your shot to try and get that "generational" QB rather than just a top 10.

The real gamble is churning through multiple high draft choices year after year trying to find the QB because you're not getting the cream of the crop and wasting seasons doing it. People don't tend to notice frequency though so that is more palatable to them even if it costs you way more in the end.

Assuming a scenario where you sit at 5, miss out on Tua, take a Herbert/Love, and use your picks for other positions and ALL of them turn out to be good players, do you REALLY think you're a better football team with a top 10 QB and 2 other solidified positions versus having a Mahomes/Jackson/Wilson etc game-changer and two question marks at those other positions? I really don't and that's what all of this really boils down to.

See my reply to NBP

 

[hoops]

I’m only trading up for tua

 

[fansinceGWilson]

At some point, you have to let it sink in that more often than not, the consensus is closer to the truth than anything else... Its not perfect by any means, there are alot of outliers, but you have to build a strategy one way or another and I just dont see the value of building a strategy around outliers. There's really nothing out there that would lead you to believe that there isnt a huge gap between QB2 and the rest in this draft, sure everyone could be wrong, but right now, Tua is either the best or second best QB in this draft by a wide margin.



Every decision you make in life is a gamble... I mean everytime you stop at a red light you're gambling. You're weighing the value of your time vs. the odds of getting a ticket or getting into a car crash and we're all very bad at this. We like small wins and will do anything to avoid any kind of loss. Its human nature.

Back on topic. Whether you're fine with good or would rather get generationnal is irrelevant, you dont get to chose. But the more you wait and let people chose before you, the more you are asking for trouble. Every single edge that used to exist are getting arbitraged away at a very fast rate when it comes to QBs...

The only reason the Seahawks got Wilson in the 3rd was his height, that guy was a flat out baller and dropped because he was considered small for the position. In a way, Seattly exploited the overexagerated fear of small QBs by NFL GMs and it paid off. That edge is long gone.

Right or wrong, GMs dont fear size in QB anymore, illustrated by the last 2 1st overall picks. Going foward, teams wont have a choice but to overpay as the position is universally viewed as just franchise makers. This will just make it harder to get anything decent outside the top 15... If the exact replica of Wilson as a prospect was available in this draft, he doesnt get out of the top 10.

Going foward, big risk is going to be the only way to get your hands on any kind of a decent QB...

First, I'm not against a gamble. I'm against 'whatever it takes.' At some point everyone would reach a demand that is too steep. I'm confident Grier and Flo have a lower limit than some here. I fear, if there are multiple bidders, Miami will pass.

For the record, I prefer Burrow fortuna. Either order. My point was, should Miami be outbid, or should those two be taken 1 and 2, Miami may still get a top 10 QB. No one can guarantee it, but Miami may take that gamble. There is nothing excluding that possibility.

I'm not arguing my preference. I'm trying to guess what Miami will do. What do you think Miami's top bid is?

 

[fansinceGWilson]

At some point, you have to let it sink in that more often than not, the consensus is closer to the truth than anything else... Its not perfect by any means, there are alot of outliers, but you have to build a strategy one way or another and I just dont see the value of building a strategy around outliers. There's really nothing out there that would lead you to believe that there isnt a huge gap between QB2 and the rest in this draft, sure everyone could be wrong, but right now, Tua is either the best or second best QB in this draft by a wide margin.



Every decision you make in life is a gamble... I mean everytime you stop at a red light you're gambling. You're weighing the value of your time vs. the odds of getting a ticket or getting into a car crash and we're all very bad at this. We like small wins and will do anything to avoid any kind of loss. Its human nature.

Back on topic. Whether you're fine with good or would rather get generationnal is irrelevant, you dont get to chose. But the more you wait and let people chose before you, the more you are asking for trouble. Every single edge that used to exist are getting arbitraged away at a very fast rate when it comes to QBs...

The only reason the Seahawks got Wilson in the 3rd was his height, that guy was a flat out baller and dropped because he was considered small for the position. In a way, Seattly exploited the overexagerated fear of small QBs by NFL GMs and it paid off. That edge is long gone.

Right or wrong, GMs dont fear size in QB anymore, illustrated by the last 2 1st overall picks. Going foward, teams wont have a choice but to overpay as the position is universally viewed as just franchise makers. This will just make it harder to get anything decent outside the top 15... If the exact replica of Wilson as a prospect was available in this draft, he doesnt get out of the top 10.

Going foward, big risk is going to be the only way to get your hands on any kind of a decent QB...

First, I'm not against a gamble. I'm against 'whatever it takes.' At some point everyone would reach a demand that is too steep. I'm confident Grier and Flo have a lower limit than some here. I fear, if there are multiple bidders, Miami will pass.

For the record, I prefer Burrow or Tua. Either order. My point was, should Miami be outbid, or should those two be taken 1 and 2, Miami may still get a top 10 QB. No one can guarantee it, but Miami may take that gamble. There is nothing excluding that possibility.

I'm not arguing my preference. I'm trying to guess what Miami will do. What do you think Miami's top bid is?

 

[mwestberry]

What I dont get is the argument against trading up for a QB because... Too many needs.

Can't speak for anybody but me ...

It's more than "too many needs" … it's ALL a risk but to trade away draft capital is potentially missing out on cheap long term solutions …. counting on FA is a gamble we have taken only to get has beens or players going for the money one last time … it created cap issues that took years to recover from.... the QB in question (for most) is a huge question mark from a recovery and return to form standpoint … and because of the injury there is no QB worth paying for.... of course we haven't seen the medical clearance or the combine so there's that

I get it … gotta have the QB …. as said it's all a risk … for me I'm not trading my 3 1st rounders and one of next years' for that risk … for me I gamble on a HC who, so far, has shown promise and an attitude of accountability ...

I take the best QB at 5 and build my team … if the QB isn't the right one …. well I still have my team, coaches and schemes in place for the next one … IMO

I know you disagree and I'm not trying to sell you …. just explaining my thoughts

 

[ATL_PHIN_FAN]

I would absolutely HATE a FA QB. I hated the decision to bring in Fitz. And now, look. How can you not retain Fitz?

Say what you want about Fitz but he made chicken salad out of chicken sht AND he helped discover that Preston is a deep threat beast plus the Parker resurrection. He had the cajones to put it up and those fellas went up for huge catches/plays.

I'd much rather form a solid oline, one that can give the QB proper time and give Rosen another shot. Again, that's predicated on actually forming a competent line.

We have our starter and expensive back-up. Now we just need to see what happens in the draft.

Not saying I favor FA QBs. Just that they are an option one cannot ignore, even when rebuilding from scratch. If we totally ignore them and drafts do not produce worthy candidates to build around, you have to take that pill so you can have a chance to move forward as a team. Meanwhile, of course, you'd be foolish to stop searching for and grooming QBs you pick in the draft every year going forward.

 

[Danny]

Its a tough call. If we trade up and hit on the QB those picks will likely never be thought of again. If we grab a QB who busts out or ends up being average we'll never stop talking about the picks we gave up to get that QB (see Daniel Thomas and Leonte Carroo, we gave up nothing close to a 1st round pick and most fans never let the fact the we traded up to get them go). I guess I'm a waffler because IU cringe at giving up the picks but also think it's worth the risk as long as they feel really strongly about a QB. If they don't see an enormous gap between QB2 and QB3 just stay put and take QB3. Although something tells me Dolphins land will implode if we don't land QB2.

This site will implode no matter what we do.....lol

 

[rickd13]

Tua had a much better college career than Rogers and was regarded as a much better prospect than Rogers was coming out of Cal. Rogers has played himself into being an all-time QB. He even sat on the bench for two years before he played, another detractor for those who don’t want like Tua:
The failed logic about wanting to trade down and continuing to wait on QB and not trade up can be shown as recently as the 2017 1st round. The Browns, needing a QB traded down for pick #12 to Houston who used that selection on Deshaun Watson. CLEVELAND selected Deshawn Keizer in the 2nd round.

There is even a better example than that in that same draft. Buffalo decided that the QB draft class the following year would be stronger so they traded down from the #10 pick with Kansas City. The Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes with that exact pick. Buffalo even ended up taking a great player in Tre'Davious White, but I'll bet they wish they could have a mulligan.

 

[rickd13]

Brotha, but we should know better. We had the greatest of all time and we couldn't get him a ring because the pieces weren't there.

How Marino only saw one SB is beyond my understanding. But I know his D consistently put him in positions where he had to outscore and we never, ne eh eh ver had a running game.

Marino happened to spend the bulk of his career in the same division with an AFC dynasty in the Buffalo Bills who also happened to have a hall of fame QB. Plus it was a different era. The rules now favor the passing game more than they did during Marino's time.