Arm strength is NOT how far you can throw it

[dan the fin]

When I used to fail tests, I would often say I didnt even try too.

Saves some embarrassment.

Difference is you failed the test and failed in life. Watson failed the test but is successful (pro bowl QB).

If you don't understand why the combine "arm test" is a joke, just stop trying to evaluate QBs. Because you don't know crap and will just use some hot takes by the media to support what you want.

 

[Travis34]

That said, I find it weird they don't measure velocity at the combine. It would be easy to do. And embarrassing for some.

Well my friend, you may be in luck:

Quarterback Ball Velocity at NFL Combine 2008-2023

The most respected source for NFL Draft info among NFL Fans, Media, and Scouts, plus accurate, up to date NFL Depth Charts, Practice Squads and Rosters.

www.ourlads.com

But I havent read the other pages of the thread yet to see if anyone brought it up already


Tua (and joe burrow) didnt throw, but I recall seeing somewhere where they measured it and it was about the same as Watson's velocity.

here's a few other random articles I stumbled across when I googled 'qb throw velocity' .... not that a necessarily agree or disagree with them (havent totally read it yet) but some more food for thought

Ball Velocity Is Bunk - Inside The Pylon

Dave Archibald breaks down why ball velocity measurements for quarterbacks at the NFL Combine aren't a helpful predictor of NFL success.

insidethepylon.com

Ball Velocity Numbers Are Lying To You | The Draft Network

I'd love to be done talking about Combine numbers.Did Kyler Murray inflate his height, as was so ast...

thedraftnetwork.com

 

[Ben Had]

I routinely see people on all forums (and this one is no exception) think that arm strength is how far a QB can throw the football down the field.

That is not correct. Its velocity.

For example, I've seen Chad Pennington complete a 60 yard pass (in the air) and he was one of the weaker arms in recent NFL history for a starter. Pennington's problem was velocity.

Here is the true formula for arm strength: How far a QB can throw the ball, when taking into consideration VELOCITY of the ball.

Pennington could throw it 60 yards, but there was no speed/zip with the ball. So it took a long time to get there and the ball kinda hung in the air. So what Pennington did was only throw long when he knew he had a good chance of completing it (meaning, the WR had steps on the DB, so the ball taking longer to get there wouldn't matter). Youll notice on many (notice I didnt say "all) of Tua's deep throws, he has a wide open guy or the guy has many steps on the DB. I think Tua is only throwing long in certain situations where you knows he can make it work - thus his small sample size.

This video below is the best comparison I could find of what i'm talking about. UNFORTUNATELY, it uses Josh Allen as one of the examples. I wish it used a different QB, like Rodgers, because people will think I purposefully picked it because of Allen, but I did NOT. It's just a really well done comparison showing how VELOCITY is what mattes with arm strength. Not distance. Not "deep throws".



PS, dont flame me. I think this is a fair discussion.

 

[bane]

Allen was late too. That's the thing.

Having a strong arm makes you a better QB because EVEN WHEN youre late, you can still make the throw.

Guys with weaker arms have to be mentally better in EVERY WAY, to compensate for the fact that they can NEVER be late.

well that is true. That is the thing allen can be late on the throw and still make it. Same with Marino or kelly. Tua can not be late on the throw and be bailed out by the strong arm like those guys. I would think everybody knew that but maybe they didn't. Tua has plenty of arm to be sucessful but he needs to be better in other aspects of qb to be really good. I think he can get there even without the top velocity. Though I am hoping that torque is coming back from the hip surgery and it will improve a bit

 

[Travis34]

Alright now this is a great write up and I recall reading around the draft. Yes Tua's arm isnt up there with some of those guys, but it is in line with others.

And this article goes into a hell of a lot more depth than a single tweet and 2 plays.

 

[MP-Omnis]

Yes velocity matters in the amount of time to reach the target.

I know the max velocity chart has been posted multiple times on this forum, but last season I worked up some data points on time to reach target based upon the max velocity but also factored in release time.

View attachment 103887

This is actually outstanding. Is this time data sampled from throws to specific yardages, or is it the 10-20-30 yard time extrapolated from a 50-yard throw, for example? I wonder if there's any relationship between release time and ball velocity for each individual QB. For example, is Josh Allen's mean release time slower than everyone else's because he is throwing laser bombs downfield more often? I feel like these factors get lost in the averages.

Anyway, great work!

 

[Travis34]

Yes velocity matters in the amount of time to reach the target.

I know the max velocity chart has been posted multiple times on this forum, but last season I worked up some data points on time to reach target based upon the max velocity but also factored in release time.

View attachment 103887

Nice chart and solid work

Looks like Burrow is set to suck too due to his arm limitations

 

[xSxPxHx]

I routinely see people on all forums (and this one is no exception) think that arm strength is how far a QB can throw the football down the field.

That is not correct. Its velocity.

For example, I've seen Chad Pennington complete a 60 yard pass (in the air) and he was one of the weaker arms in recent NFL history for a starter. Pennington's problem was velocity.

Here is the true formula for arm strength: How far a QB can throw the ball, when taking into consideration VELOCITY of the ball.

Pennington could throw it 60 yards, but there was no speed/zip with the ball. So it took a long time to get there and the ball kinda hung in the air. So what Pennington did was only throw long when he knew he had a good chance of completing it (meaning, the WR had steps on the DB, so the ball taking longer to get there wouldn't matter). Youll notice on many (notice I didnt say "all) of Tua's deep throws, he has a wide open guy or the guy has many steps on the DB. I think Tua is only throwing long in certain situations where you knows he can make it work - thus his small sample size.

This video below is the best comparison I could find of what i'm talking about. UNFORTUNATELY, it uses Josh Allen as one of the examples. I wish it used a different QB, like Rodgers, because people will think I purposefully picked it because of Allen, but I did NOT. It's just a really well done comparison showing how VELOCITY is what mattes with arm strength. Not distance. Not "deep throws".



PS, dont flame me. I think this is a fair discussion.

MaN who do you think you are??

The Beatles?

Tua, shut em up...hard.

 

[Ninja Foot]

Hand size (ball grip) has a bigger importance on ball velocity than arm strength...

...

 

[TrogdorTheBurninator]

 

[dan the fin]

Well my friend, you may be in luck:

Quarterback Ball Velocity at NFL Combine 2008-2023

The most respected source for NFL Draft info among NFL Fans, Media, and Scouts, plus accurate, up to date NFL Depth Charts, Practice Squads and Rosters.

www.ourlads.com

But I havent read the other pages of the thread yet to see if anyone brought it up already


Tua (and joe burrow) didnt throw, but I recall seeing somewhere where they measured it and it was about the same as Watson's velocity.

here's a few other random articles I stumbled across when I googled 'qb throw velocity' .... not that a necessarily agree or disagree with them (havent totally read it yet) but some more food for thought

Ball Velocity Is Bunk - Inside The Pylon

Dave Archibald breaks down why ball velocity measurements for quarterbacks at the NFL Combine aren't a helpful predictor of NFL success.

insidethepylon.com

Ball Velocity Numbers Are Lying To You | The Draft Network

I'd love to be done talking about Combine numbers.Did Kyler Murray inflate his height, as was so ast...

thedraftnetwork.com

It has been brought up. The problem is it is highly inaccurate and easily to manipulate.

A lot of guys make a regular throw like Herbert (55L, 54R). Some guys wind it up, which you can't do in a real game like Fromm (53L, 53R). Or some just don't give a crap like Watson (45L,45R).

So this data tells me Fromm has a cannon of an arm compared to Watson and just a little less then Herbert. Anyone with half a brain believe that?

 

[Travis34]

Anyone with half a brain believe that?

Agreed

Its all up to interpretation. I'm not advocating Tua has some rocket or anything, or that its not important for a ball to get there faster

 

[dan the fin]

Hand size (ball grip) has a bigger importance on ball velocity than arm strength...

...

It does for the most part. Because larger hands tend to correlate to a higher spin rate (there are of factors). Spin rate helps maintain velocity of distances when throwing a football. Doesn't matter how hard the Evelo is if you are throwing ducks.

 

[Rev Kev]

It does for the most part. Because larger hands tend to correlate to a higher spin rate (there are of factors). Spin rate helps maintain velocity of distances when throwing a football. Doesn't matter how hard the Evelo is if you are throwing ducks.

Don’t worry about ducks more like the overthrows