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Beck's Odds Are Not So Good

Gardenhead

Gardenhead

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nfldraftcountdown.com is far and away the best draft site out there in my opinion. Here's a post the owner of the site wrote that really raised my eyebrows. I've been a Beck supporter, but the following info is interesting:

Scott Wright wrote:

Of the 31 quarterbacks taken in rounds two and three the last 15 years only one has turned into a stud and the type of guy you can build a team around (Drew Brees). 1 out of 31 = 3%. For anyone to pin their hopes on landing a franchise signal caller in round two or three all I can say is the numbers don't lie.

Here is that illustrious list:

1992
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca

1993
Billy Joe Hobert

1994
None

1995
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Stoney Case
Eric Zeier

1996
Tony Banks
Bobby Hoying

1997
Jake Plummer

1998
Charlie Batch
Jonathan Quinn
Brian Griese

1999
Shaun King
Brock Huard

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

2001
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
Josh McCown

2003
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms

2004
Matt Schaub

2005
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene

2006
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
 
I compiled that list after the draft last year although there are plenty of misses in the first but percentage wise it is slightly better.
 
Gardenhead said:
nfldraftcountdown.com is far and away the best draft site out there in my opinion. Here's a post the owner of the site wrote that really raised my eyebrows. I've been a Beck supporter, but the following info is interesting:

Scott Wright wrote:

Of the 31 quarterbacks taken in rounds two and three the last 15 years only one has turned into a stud and the type of guy you can build a team around (Drew Brees). 1 out of 31 = 3%. For anyone to pin their hopes on landing a franchise signal caller in round two or three all I can say is the numbers don't lie.

Here is that illustrious list:

1992
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca

1993
Billy Joe Hobert

1994
None

1995
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Stoney Case
Eric Zeier

1996
Tony Banks
Bobby Hoying

1997
Jake Plummer

1998
Charlie Batch
Jonathan Quinn
Brian Griese

1999
Shaun King
Brock Huard

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

2001
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
Josh McCown

2003
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms

2004
Matt Schaub

2005
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene

2006
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Click to expand...



BEFORE the draft last year i had a post about this. course i only got 3 replies....


http://www.dolphinsnation.com/forums/showthread.php?t=189429
 
Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.
 
Nice list. I was checking this out the other day as well. There are an additional 10-13 guys who are solid backups, who have started at times. Still, people would rather see Beck as Brees and not Beck as Batch.

The reality is that most players who are drafted, fail. 2nd rounders fail a bit more than 1st.

Curious, based on this would you advocate going QB in the first round (Ryan or Brohm), or getting someone else in the 2nd/3rd round (Flacco, Henne, etc) as a hedge?
 
like2god said:
Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.
Click to expand...


One thing you cannot count Steve Young technically because he was in the USFL at the time of the draft and was a 1st round pick. He was drafted in the NFL Supplemental draft by the Bucs as the first pick. Also i will give Cam credit for developing Brees and Rivers but AJ runs that draft room and Brees and Rivers were hardly projects.
 
So, let me get this. Your saying Beck doesn't have much of a chance becuase basing your argument on the past 2round QB's history of not making the grade to the elete QB's. I don't by it. I am not saying Beck is going to be great or not but none of your anyalisis was based on Beck's intangables, size, hight, strength, arm, ect or his college play. It's just based on the history of second round qb's not making it to the elete level. HMMM, last time I checked there were a bunch on first round busts as well. Dude, you have to look at the player not the round or history. Beck could be a stud qb or a bust no one knows. Beck is here already. We need to find out if he is the QB the dolphins need to take us to the next level. I agree with the premise it hard to find a qb in any round of the draft not just the 2nd. There are lots of busts in every round.
 
There is a lot more to it than just then round the guy is drafted in. It's nice to see stats like this, but they cannot be taken too seriously. You have to also factor in what kind of system the player is being put into, what weapons he has around him, and what kind of coaches are working with him. I am pretty confident that when all is said and done he will have the weapons around him. We know he has the best coach(es) working with him. Beck is and will be the guy. He will be a good qb.
 
phinphever said:
So, let me get this. Your saying Beck doesn't have much of a chance becuase basing your argument on the past 2round QB's history of not making the grade to the elete QB's. I don't by it. I am not saying Beck is going to be great or not but none of your anyalisis was based on Beck's intangables, size, hight, strength, arm, ect or his college play. It's just based on the history of second round qb's not making it to the elete level. HMMM, last time I checked there were a bunch on first round busts as well. Dude, you have to look at the player not the round or history. Beck could be a stud qb or a bust no one knows. Beck is here already. We need to find out if he is the QB the dolphins need to take us to the next level. I agree with the premise it hard to find a qb in any round of thew draft not juyst the 2nd lots of busts in every round.
Click to expand...

No, that's not what I'm saying. Objectively speaking, second/third round draft choices have not produced franchise QBs.

Now, we can move on to theories as to WHY this is. Perhaps it is because the truly elite QBs are drafted in the first round. And then by the law of averages, some elite QBs end up getting drafted in rounds 4-7.

Of course there are busts in every round at every position, but I found the 3% number to be quite daunting.
 
Put together a list of quarterbacks taken in the first round over that time period, and it's not going to be dramatically better.
 
John Beck makes good throws, he shows maturity.

i dislike how he's 28. but with a better OL, WR, RB in front of him....i think he'll do just fine.
 
What round you take a QB has nothing to do with anything except the amount of money you end up paying him. That said, because of the time put into scouting these guys, they're ranked that high for a reason, which is why the first round is your best chance at finding the franchise QB you're looking for.
 
We should have waited to the 4th round to draft a qb. Then we'd be out of wretched, cursed rounds 2 and 3.


The fact is that most draftees fail, and the number increases as the rounds go on. Just because Tom Brady was a 6th rounder and Romo was undrafted, doesn't mean that all the talent is at the bottom, or that because Peyton Manning has succeeded, that it's all at the top. If you look at rounds 4-7 and undrafted FA's...you'd find quite a few qb's who start today...but then look at the numbers who fail; the ratio of pass to fail would probably be similar to rounds 2&3 and maybe pretty close to round 1's.

A good player can come from anywhere. I thought it was funny they cut off the list before Favre's year, haha.
 
Great post. I've always been of the mindset you don't draft a QB to be your QB of the future in any round except number 1. Any round after 1 and you're drafting a QB to be a backup, and maybe get lucky once in awhile e.g. Tom Brady, Steve Young, etc. But you should never draft a guy in the 2nd and expect him to be the guy. Especially when he's already 26. Unless the draft class is brimming with talent at QB, which last year's class was not.

Anyone else find it funny that the only "stud" on that list is Drew Brees? He's the guy that if Wanny had brain 1 in that mustached head of his would have been a Dolphin in round 1.
 
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