Beck's Odds Are Not So Good | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Beck's Odds Are Not So Good

I think it has less to do with what school you played with or when your drafted as it has to do with the caliber of the team you go to.. If you go to a top raked team you get good coaching, study habits, and you have a supporting cast.

When you go to a team like the raiders or miami recently you get rushed into the role with little support, you get rattled, and you end up hearing all the negatives and it can haunt you...
 
I wouldn't put too much stock in those statistics. Right now, we have a QB that is going to be surrounded with some of the best coaches in the league. I think our shot at getting a "franchise" QB is a little higher than 3% simply because of our coaches. Also, when I look at Beck, I look at him as a person more than I look at how he played last year. He's been studying his playbook with his wife, while going in to the gym to get bigger for next year. I say we stick it out with Beck. If he shows that he won't be able to cut it in the NFL, then we address QB. After all, we are rebuilding. We can afford to take one year and analyze our QB. Give the kid a shot...
 
satz said:
Repeat after me

Offensive coordinators do not draft players
In some teasm head coaches input but final call comes down to the G.M.

the whole brees , rivers point is mute. when scottheimer was coach he did not have any draft power but hey his OC did the draft.
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You don't think that coaches are consulted or give opinions of players? Are the scouting departments of NFL teams compartmentalized the same way the scientists were that were working on the Manhattan Project? Is everything that hush hush that noone but the chosen few can know what's going on or share their view on a player and how he will fit into their system?
 
like2god said:
You don't think that coaches are consulted or give opinions of players? Are the scouting departments of NFL teams compartmentalized the same way the scientists were that were working on the Manhattan Project? Is everything that hush hush that noone but the chosen few can know what's going on or share their view on a player and how he will fit into their system?
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I do not think so ,most teams have 4000 prospects at the start of the year [from a show on tv where logan mankins selection was detailed ]. at the start of a year you rarely know what you need for next year.anyway the scouting departs job is to knock it down to 400 players with 5 line description.

now this 400 players get send to he HC here who did pick his players who further cuts it down to 100-150 which he wants .the other coaches are brought in now to evaluate the 100 people and clean the list up.

also value of a position is also coaches call ie colts won`t take a Qb in rd 1 so its mute to evaluate so each assistance position coach is given 2-3 players in case the scouting department draws a blank.

if you have a GM who is more powerfull the above is even more short.remember the time of 2-3 weeks is too short to for any coach to evaluate every one on the board so they can identify and interview the prospect at the combine. realize that teams get to interview 3 hrs tops per position and 15 minutes per interview and avialablity.
 
Here's a look at the past 20 Super Bowls and the QB's that played on the winning team. Enjoy the Dolphins colors..

49ers - Montana -3rd round
49ers - Montana - 3rd round
Giants - Hostetler -3rd round
Redskins - Rypien - 6th round
Cowboys - Aikman - 1st round
Cowboys - Aikman - 1st round
49ers - Young - USFL - 1st Supplemental Draft
Cowboys -Aikman - 1st round
Packers - Favre - 2nd round
Broncos - Elway - 1st round
Broncos - Elway - 1st round
Rams - Warner - Undrafted
Ravens - Dilfer - 1st round haha
Pats - Brady -6th round
Bucs - Johnson - 9th round
Pats - Brady - 6th round
Pats - Brady -6th round
Steelers - Roethlisberger - 1st round
Colts - Manning - 1st round
Giants - Manning - 1st round


It's pretty split between first rounders and non-first rounders. There's 10 non-firsts vs. 9 firsts (10 if you count Steve Young) (8 if you don't want to count Dilfer lol). You see a few names several times, which I think deals a lot more with the team these guys played on, rather than where they were drafted. A successful, even Super Bowl-winning qb, can come from any school, any round, any team, even a local grocery store in some cases. Sometimes it's luck, and sometimes it is an eye for talent that brings all the elements of a winning team together. There's no way to guarantee or come up with some mathematical equation to figure out if a team or qb will be successful together IMO.
 
During the season coaches don't allocate any of their time towards evaluating prospects. They're basically given a crash course once the season ends. The closest they'll get to 'truly' evaluating any of the talent is when they attend or, in some cases, coach the senior bowl. That often leads to power struggles between the HC and the GM since many times a coach falls in love with a player after only being around him for a week, while the scouting department has been doing their work for years.
 
ajscar15 said:
Here's a look at the past 20 Super Bowls and the QB's that played on the winning team. Enjoy the Dolphins colors..

49ers - Montana -3rd round
49ers - Montana - 3rd round
Giants - Hostetler -3rd round
Redskins - Rypien - 6th round
Cowboys - Aikman - 1st round
Cowboys - Aikman - 1st round
49ers - Young - USFL - 1st Supplemental Draft
Cowboys -Aikman - 1st round
Packers - Favre - 2nd round
Broncos - Elway - 1st round
Broncos - Elway - 1st round
Rams - Warner - Undrafted
Ravens - Dilfer - 1st round haha
Pats - Brady -6th round
Bucs - Johnson - 9th round
Pats - Brady - 6th round
Pats - Brady -6th round
Steelers - Roethlisberger - 1st round
Colts - Manning - 1st round
Giants - Manning - 1st round


It's pretty split between first rounders and non-first rounders. There's 10 non-firsts vs. 9 firsts (10 if you count Steve Young) (8 if you don't want to count Dilfer lol). You see a few names several times, which I think deals a lot more with the team these guys played on, rather than where they were drafted. A successful, even Super Bowl-winning qb, can come from any school, any round, any team, even a local grocery store in some cases. Sometimes it's luck, and sometimes it is an eye for talent that brings all the elements of a winning team together. There's no way to guarantee or come up with some mathematical equation to figure out if a team or qb will be successful together IMO.
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You should take into account QBs that have been to the SB and lost, too. I mean, Marino and Kelly are two first round QBs that any team would be happy to have that didn't end up winning it all.
 
like2god said:
:lol:

Drew Brees is one of the top QB's in the NFL and Gus Frerotte made the Probowl under Cam. Cam may have failed miserably as a head coach, but that doesn't change the fact that he is an offensive genius and knows how to evaluate and groom young QB's. That's what he's known for, that's what he is good at, that's the reason he was brought to Miami.

Me thinks you just like to argue.


You can't generalize the draft and say that players who aren't selected in the first round will never be any good. Again I submit the names of Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Terrell Davis, Marques Colston, etc, etc, etc.

Brady and Montana are two of the best ever and they won plenty of SB's.
Brad Johnson was a 9th round pick and won a SB.
Kurt Warner was undrafted and won a SB.
Mark Rypien was a 6th rounder and won a SB.
Jeff Hostetler was a 3rd rounder and won the SB.

What does this all mean? It means that football is a team game and not an individual sport. It takes every player on the team to make it to the SB and win. To focus on one position and make general statements to justify bashing John Beck is silly, there are plenty of QB's chosen in the 1st round that bombed after being hyped as the next big thing.

Ryan Leaf
Akili Smith
Heath Shuler
Kelly Stouffer
Andre Ware
Browning Nagle
Todd Blackledge
Art Schlichter
Jim Druckenmiller
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Todd Marinovich
Dan McGwire
Rick Mirer
etc
etc
etc

Being chosen in the 1st round doesn't guarantee you a spot in the SB or even a spot on an NFL roster. Using this stat to try and make a case that Beck is a bust or that we should draft Matt Ryan or should have drafted Brady Quinn as some people have is silly at best and intellectually dishonest at worst. Football is a team sport and even a very average QB like Trent Dilfer (Who was a 1st rounder btw) can win a SB with the right supporting cast.
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Amen to that. How many here remember George Shaw? No. How about Johnny Unitas? Remember him. Well old George was a 1st rounder while Johnny U was picked in round 7. "It's not where you start from; it's where you end up" or even better "Not what you have but what you do with what you have".
 
he was drafted and paid, there have been many good past QB'S that have said he is a good QB prospect, (see Jaws and steve young), so he has to be in the mix, it does not mean that you cant draft a guy or sign a vet, this is a big year for beck
 
BlueFin said:
.

First round QB's have won more than half the Superbowls.

Trent Green and Matt Hasselback have not won Superbowls.

Steve Young was originally a 1st round pick that chose to sign wth a different league.
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I was looking more at this kind of topic. But, yes there are many 1st rounders who lose....but there's also many non-1st rounders that lose. The main point is that there's no "math" that can guarantee anything.

Beck could be a bust, Matt Ryan, the first rounder, could be a bust. Derek Anderson could play terribly for the rest of his career. But, yet, these guys could all show they are franchise 10-year qb's. Nobody knows. And noone will ever know if you don't give your players a chance to begin with...
 
Jake Plummer
Brian Griese
Josh McCown
Quincy Carter
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson

All did well. Tarvaris may actually end up doing very well if he keeps progressing. Carter was good but drugs ruined his career. Plummer was really good and I don't think he was a bust. He played for a terrible team. Greise has always played well. He isn't the best by any means but he has played well.
 
Gardenhead said:
nfldraftcountdown.com is far and away the best draft site out there in my opinion. Here's a post the owner of the site wrote that really raised my eyebrows. I've been a Beck supporter, but the following info is interesting:

Scott Wright wrote:

Of the 31 quarterbacks taken in rounds two and three the last 15 years only one has turned into a stud and the type of guy you can build a team around (Drew Brees). 1 out of 31 = 3%. For anyone to pin their hopes on landing a franchise signal caller in round two or three all I can say is the numbers don't lie.

Here is that illustrious list:

1992
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca

1993
Billy Joe Hobert

1994
None

1995
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Stoney Case
Eric Zeier

1996
Tony Banks
Bobby Hoying

1997
Jake Plummer

1998
Charlie Batch
Jonathan Quinn
Brian Griese

1999
Shaun King
Brock Huard

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

2001
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
Josh McCown

2003
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms

2004
Matt Schaub

2005
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene

2006
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
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Here are the QB's taken in the 1st round

1992:
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox

1993:
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer

1994:
Heath Shuler
Trent Dilfer

1995:
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins

1996:
--------

1997:
Jim Druckenmiller

1998:
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf

1999:
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown

2000:
Chad Pennington

2001:
Michael Vick

2002:
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey

2003:
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman

2004:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman

2005:
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell

2006:
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler

How many of these QB's you consider studs and the type of guy you can build a team around?

I counted 5 out of 35 = 14%

It's not like every QB drafted in the 1st round turns into a franchise QB, not even half of these guys are franchise QB's
 
Gardenhead said:
nfldraftcountdown.com is far and away the best draft site out there in my opinion. Here's a post the owner of the site wrote that really raised my eyebrows. I've been a Beck supporter, but the following info is interesting:

Scott Wright wrote:

Of the 31 quarterbacks taken in rounds two and three the last 15 years only one has turned into a stud and the type of guy you can build a team around (Drew Brees). 1 out of 31 = 3%. For anyone to pin their hopes on landing a franchise signal caller in round two or three all I can say is the numbers don't lie.

Here is that illustrious list:

1992
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca

1993
Billy Joe Hobert

1994
None

1995
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Stoney Case
Eric Zeier

1996
Tony Banks
Bobby Hoying

1997
Jake Plummer

1998
Charlie Batch
Jonathan Quinn
Brian Griese

1999
Shaun King
Brock Huard

2000
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman

2001
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
Josh McCown

2003
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms

2004
Matt Schaub

2005
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene

2006
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Click to expand...

Conveniently missed 1991, Bret Favre, wonder why?

Lucky Belicheat didn't compute the odds for 6th round QBs right after Bledsoe went down, eh?
 
BlueFin said:
Wrong, it is a fact that quarterbacks drafted in the first round are more successfull than any other round by percentage.

The number show that if you are looking for a Superbowl winning QB, your odds ar overwhelming greater in the 1st round, greater than all other rounds and undrafted free agents combined.

First round QB's have won more than half the Superbowls.

Trent Green and Matt Hasselback have not won Superbowls.

Steve Young was originally a 1st round pick that chose to sign wth a different league.
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That's correct. the first round produces far more successful QBs than any other single round. What's really weird is that in the last ten years round 6 comes in 2nd place :lol: So basically if you pass on the 1st wait until the 6th round before drafting
 
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