Beck's Odds Are Not So Good | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Beck's Odds Are Not So Good

Talk about cherry picking facts to fit your arguement.

One thing about later round QB's, they were allowed to develop on the end of the bench.
 
NorFlaFin said:
Talk about cherry picking facts to fit your arguement.

One thing about later round QB's, they were allowed to develop on the end of the bench.
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Which is where John Beck needs to stay for AT LEAST one more year. So basically we need a QB who can play this year BADLY. Which is why Im screaming for Pennington. We should still draft Matt Ryan while we can though.

And btw. What other QBs did who were selected in the 2nd round has no bearing what so ever on how well Beck will play in the future. Beck could turn out to be the best QB selected in the 2nd round over the last 15 years. Who knows right now.

What we do know is that in the limited action he got last year he was an utter disgrace on the field.

We also know that its not often you get to select first in the draft and have an opportunity to select a QB who is projected as the top prospect in the entire draft.

We also know that this team has been starving for a franchise QB since Dan retired.

We also know that selecting Ryan and keeping Beck gives our team great odds at putting an end to that starving.

We also know that if you have 2 solid QBs on your roster you are WAY AHEAD of the curve in the NFL seeing as there is a serious lack of talent at that position. So if Beck and Ryan both become good players we would be in that position.

So just going by what we know for sure it seems to me you dont need to be a genius to conclude we should draft Matt Ryan, sign a veteran QB, and let the 3 QBs battle it out in camp and preseason. Then let the guy who seems like he can play the best when it counts start the season opener.
 
Who's to say that if drafted THIS year, Beck would not have been a 1st round QB pick??
 
My only disagreement with that list is that Schaub and others on that list may not be up to Brees' level yet, but they are well on their way
 
Crazy685 said:
My only disagreement with that list is that Schaub and others on that list may not be up to Brees' level yet, but they are well on their way
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Thats what I was thinking. There are more good Qbs on that list than some people gave credit for. Matt Schaub is better than what alot of teams have right now and I think he is going to be a solid QB in this league.

Plummer is underrated. Clemens and Croyle might turn into good players too. Jury is out on them. But, give Plummer some credit. He was better than what alot of teams had when he was in Denver. Why do you think Gruden wanted him to play last year. If Gruden thought he was as good or better than Garcia(who is better than what alot of teams have), then he has to be worth mentioning. Hell, I would take Plummer to start for us this year if he would play. Even if he were just equal to Garcia, that makes him better than what at least 10 teams have starting right now.

I mean seriously. It could be worse. We could have Grossman, Culpepper/McCown, Losman, McNair, Young, Croyle/Huard(I kinda like Huard. Think he is way better than Croyle right now), Jason Campbell, Kitna, T.Jackson, Delhomme, or...LOL John Beck. There are 10 teams situations right there going into last season(except for Beck. Thats our situation now.) that were a worse position to be in than having Plummer.

Edit: Oh and I almost forgot Atlanta's situation. Even before Vick went to prison they had garbage at QB. LOL They had Vick. After that it got worse. Harrington. Leftwich.

Serious lack of talent in the league right now at QB. When you have at least 10 teams starting garbage like I mentioned, Im telling you its a major plus to have 2 good ones. Draft Matt Ryan.

And speaking of Huard(who I like and dont consider him garbage) whats his deal? I wonder if he would be attainable. I would take him any day given the situation we are in. He's at least avg. I would take Huard, Pennington, or Brad Johnson in a heartbeat if we could get them and let them compete with Matt Ryan for the job. Probably start the veteran unless Ryan looks unbelievable in camp and preseason.
 
i think chris simms will be the starter this year regardless. he's gonna get cut by tampa bay in the next coming weeks because he has a bonus that they are not gonna pay him. i think he's the same age or even younger than beck which is pretty scary considering simms has been in the league for 4 or 5 years. hopefully he's recovered from his injury, if he is healthy i think he's a good player who made some amazing throws the year that he carried that team to the playoffs.
 
like2god said:
Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.
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Word up my man!!..... couldn't have said it better.
 
Sorry Beck is simply not the answer.. if he was any good this team would of atleast won more then one game. He's a career backup if hes lucky he doesn't have anything special. This team would be better off with Ryan behind the center
 
Great post and I agree with MonstaBlitz in that you should look for stud Qb's in the 1st rd. I am not sod on Beck but it is too early for us to say what he can be. Unless of course we draft a Qb and Parcells sends Beck packing. Then we must trust our team's decision makers but until then I support the guys we have.
 
I'm not gunna have any less faith in John Beck due to being reminded where and when he was drafted. Bottom line is we got a top QB prospect from that class, and it's a matter of what the new regime thinks of him, and how they use him. If what your looking for is to have Beck get a shot to prove himself..... THE ODDS ARE GOOD>

I must admit that i've always preached..... that a team in need of a QB should take one very early in the Draft. Every year i bring up that more than 50% of all playoff teams are led by 1st rounder QBs. That said.... just because John was taken early in the 2nd, it doesnt mean we didn't put a premium on Quarterback.
 
BDIX said:
Sorry Beck is simply not the answer.. if he was any good this team would of atleast won more then one game. He's a career backup if hes lucky he doesn't have anything special. This team would be better off with Ryan behind the center
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Thank God we don't allow fans to make our personnel decisions. :)

Both Cam and Martz are very high on Beck and I'll take their word any day of the week. Ireland also said he was very high on Beck last year while scouting for the Cowboys, that's a pretty good group of NFL talent evaluators that all feel that John will be successful.
 
like2god said:
Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.
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Well done, L2G. Was gonna say about the same thing. Talent can never be factored into stats. They just don't go together.
 
Not finished accidently hit send
To qualify must have started at least 10 games

90 Plus
Peyton manning 1 8 pro bowls
Tom Brady 6 4 pro bowls
Craig Nall 5
CArson Palmer 1 2 pro bowls
Ben rothlesberger 1 1 pro bowl
Jim Sorgi 6


82 plus rating
Mark Brunell 5 3 time pro bowler
Steve Matthews 7 threw only 43 passes
Steve Mcnair 1 3 time pro bowler
Rob Johnson 5
Brian Griese 3 1 time pro bowler
Matt Hasselback 6 3 time pro bowler
Donavan McNabb 1 5 time pro bowler
Daunte Culpepper 1 3 time pro bowler
Chad Pennington 1
Marc Bulger 5 2 pro bowls was cut by drafting team, 2yrs later Fa to Stl
Drew Brees 2 time pro bowler
David Garrard 4
Phillip Rivers 1 pro bowl


75-82 rating
Jeff Blake 6 1 time pro bowler
Drew Bledose1 4 time pro bowler
Jim Miller 6
Todd Collins 2
Charlie Batch 2
Tim Couch 1
Brock Huard 2
Aaron Brooks 4
Chris Griesen 7
Chris Redman 3
Tim Rattay 7
Michael Vick 1 3 time pro bowler
Sage Rosenfels 4
Byron Leftwich 1
Brooks Bollinger 6
JP Losman 1
Matt Schawab 3
Luke Mccown 4


70-75 rating
Tommy Maddox 1
Craig erickson 4
Trent Dilfer 1 1 pro bowl
Gus frerotte 7 1 pro bowl
Kerry Collins 1 1 pro bowl
Kordell Stewart 2 1 pro bowl
Eric Zeir 4
Jake Plummer 2 1 pro bowl
Shaun King 2
Quincy Carter 2
David Carr 1
Patrick Ramsey 1
Josh McCown 3
Kyle Boller 1
Rex Grossman 1
Chris Sims 3
Eli Manning 1


70 or lower rating
David Klinger 1
Rick Mirer 1
Billy Hobart 3
Glenn Foley7
Dave Brown 1
Dave Barr 4
Steve Stenstrom 4
Bobby Hoying 3
Danny Kannel 4
Koy Detmer 7
Wally Richardson 7
John Quinn 3
Cade McNown 1
Joe Germaine 4
Michael Bishop 7
Scott Covington 7
Chris Weinke 4
AJ Feeley 5
Joey Harrington 1
Drew Henson 6
Ken Dorsey 7



60 or lower
Matt Blundin 2
Tony Sacca 2
Casey Weldon 4
Will Furror 4
Gino Torretta 7
Heath Shuler 1
Doug Nussemeir 4
Stoney CAse 3
Craif Whelihan 6
John Walsh 7
Jeff Lewis 4
Danny Wuerful 4
Jim druckimiller 1
tony Graziano 7
Ryan Leaf 1
Moses Moreno 7
Akili Smith 1
Tee Martin 5
Spergon Wynn 6
JArius Jackson 7
MTuisopso 2
Jessie Palmer 4
Mike Mcmahon 5
Rohan Davey 2
Randy Fasani 5
Kurt Kittner 5
JT O Sullivan 6
Dave Ragone 3
Seneca Wallace 4
Craig Krenzel 5
John Navaree 7
Cody Pickett 7
Matt Mauk 7



Less than 5 attempts
Perry Klein4
Jay Walker 7 2of 2 lifetime
Mike Cherry 6
Chuck Clemants 6
Wally Richardson 7
Todd Husak 6
Joe Hamilton 7
Brandon Doman 5 never threw a pass
Jeff Kelley 7 no attempts
Brian St Pierre 5th
Kliff Klinsbury 6
Gilbert Hambren 7
Andy Hall 6
Jeff Smoker 6


Never made team
Chris Hakel 4
Chad May 5
Jay Barker 5
Jerry Colquitt 6
Spence Fisher 6
Mike Cawley 6
John Strark 7
Kyle Wacholtz 7
Pat Barnes 4 was on sf 2 years later never played
Tony Corbin 7
Ron Mcada 7
John Dutton 6
Kevin Daft 5
Giavanni Carmazzi 3
JuJuab Seider 6
Josh Booty 6
Josh Heupal 6
Steve Bellisari 6
Seth Buford 7
Wes Pate5
Josh Harris 6
BJ symons 7



Basically I just used Qb rating as a way to judge Qb performance just because it takes emotions out of it.Not a totally accurate way to judge Qb's
and some Qb's hardly played enough but just used this as an arguementive tool.

I will basically throw out the guys that hardly played like Nall and Sorgi.

Elite Qb's defined only by rating of 90 plus
3 first rounders and 1 6th rounder

Near elite qb's 82-90
6 first rounders
3 5th rounders
1 each from every other round except 7th threw out 1 minor player

good qb's 75-82
5 first rounders
2 second rounders
2 third rounders
3 fourth rounders
1 fifth rounder
3 sixth rounders

average qbs 70-75
8 first rounders
4 second rounders
2 third rounders
2 fourth rounders
1 seventh rounder



1st round percentage of elite qb's
10 percent

6th rounder
3 percent

all others 0 percent


Near elite
1st rounders 20 percent
2nd 8 percent
3rd 8 percent
4th 5 percent
5th 23 percent
6th round 3 percent

good
1st round 17 percent
2nd 15 percent
3rd 18 percent
4th 20 percent
5th 7 percent
6th 12 percent

average players
1st round 26 percent
2nd round 30 percent
3rd round 18 percent
4t round 10 percent
5th and sixth 0 percent
7th round 3 percent

Near elite to elite percentage
1st round 36 percent
2nd 8 percent
3rd 8 percent
4th 5 percent
5th 23 percent
6th 7 percent

good and above
1st round 46 percent
2nd round 23 percent
3rd round 8 percent
4th round 20 percent
5th round 15 percent
6th round 19 percent


average and above
1st round 70 percent
2nd round 53 percent
3rd round 36 percent
4t round 30 percent
5th round 30 percent
6th round 19 percent
7th round 3 percent
 
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