Beck's Odds Are Not So Good | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Beck's Odds Are Not So Good

That maybe correct but that's because teams can take chances with 2nd and 3rd round choices on QB's because there's no financial penalty. It's a pick that makes less then most 3rd string FA's. You can't take a chance on a top end first round pick because the penalty is to great financially and long term not having whose high picks develope. Late first round QB are usually lucky to turn out great because you didn't have a choice in who you were selecting at say 23rd. i.e. Dan Marino - if anyone picked him before us what would our 80's and 90's have been like?
 
Maybe half the problem is teams giving up on their choices to early like alot of fans on this site are doing right now. I'm not clumping you in this group, I know your just providing an interesting statistic.
 
like2god said:
Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.
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+

SCAM is a MORON. If Drew Brees was so great he would still be in San Diego and the Chargers would not have drafted Rivers. Gus Ferrotte is a JOKE!

I don't understand why you are so enamored by SCAM CAMERON.

Beck=Bust and the numbers and the future will hold that as fact. QBs as the first poster so accurately depicted do not magically turn into Franchise QBs.

So get over it.
 
like2god said:
Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.
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Wrong, it is a fact that quarterbacks drafted in the first round are more successfull than any other round by percentage.

The number show that if you are looking for a Superbowl winning QB, your odds ar overwhelming greater in the 1st round, greater than all other rounds and undrafted free agents combined.

First round QB's have won more than half the Superbowls.

Trent Green and Matt Hasselback have not won Superbowls.

Steve Young was originally a 1st round pick that chose to sign wth a different league.
 
The only QB im sold on in this draft is Ryan. People like Flacco, but he seems to have poor footwork accourding to most of the scouts. Brohm apparently has trouble with pocket awareness(in the NFL this can kill you). I noticed that myself from watching him play several games during his college career since he's in the big east and close to my area, I saw quite a few Louisville games. Granted in several of those he wasnt playing competition that presented him with any real heat. Ryans knock is that he threw too many INT's. But, to me he has all the tools. He has great intangebles as well. To me he seems like a real pro QB who will start in this league for years to come. He has a big time arm, good footwork, can throw on the move, really smart, sees the field well, and is very accurate.

Im sorry, but we need a QB. Im just not to the point where Im ready to put all of my eggs in Beck's basket. Certainly not ready to write Beck off either. But, hopefully we wont have the first pick again in my lifetime(at least not due to record). However, since we do have it this year, we must make it payoff. You just arent in this position too often. The franchise QB we need is sitting right there for us to take. Im tired of not having a QB. And if Beck developes into the player we had hoped, then we have either a great backup, a guy we can get huge return on investment in a trade, or a guy who can be our franchise QB should Ryan bust.

Either way, by drafting Ryan our QB issues should be solved for years to come following this season. One of those two will make it. If both of them do its a bonus. Pull the trigger and fix this problem once and for all. I want my daughter to tell me 10 years from now that Matt Ryan is better than Marino and have that argument with her every other day.
 
statistics have nothing to do with actual performance, if they didn't perform they obviously didn't have the brains and brawn to make it in the NFL
 
Gardenhead said:
No, that's not what I'm saying. Objectively speaking, second/third round draft choices have not produced franchise QBs.

Now, we can move on to theories as to WHY this is. Perhaps it is because the truly elite QBs are drafted in the first round. And then by the law of averages, some elite QBs end up getting drafted in rounds 4-7.

Of course there are busts in every round at every position, but I found the 3% number to be quite daunting.
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I agree it's is hard to find a elete QB in the second round or any round for that matter. My point is you shouldn't focus on the history, just the player themselves. You can find gems in any round. It's all about talent evaluation and development.
 
slipperysoap said:
+

SCAM is a MORON. If Drew Brees was so great he would still be in San Diego and the Chargers would not have drafted Rivers. Gus Ferrotte is a JOKE!

I don't understand why you are so enamored by SCAM CAMERON.

Beck=Bust and the numbers and the future will hold that as fact. QBs as the first poster so accurately depicted do not magically turn into Franchise QBs.

So get over it.
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You lost all credibility when you said Brees is not so great!
 
slipperysoap said:
+

SCAM is a MORON. If Drew Brees was so great he would still be in San Diego and the Chargers would not have drafted Rivers. Gus Ferrotte is a JOKE!

I don't understand why you are so enamored by SCAM CAMERON.

Beck=Bust and the numbers and the future will hold that as fact. QBs as the first poster so accurately depicted do not magically turn into Franchise QBs.

So get over it.
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Well all I can say is if Beck turns out to be anything but a bust be prepared to eat thoose words.

By the way I would trust cam, ireland and matrz more than you to judge QB talent. What scounting department or team have you coached at that level?
It is clear you have some sort of bias. YOu hate cam so you hate his pick. Or could it be your a culpepper fan or what is really going on?
I don't think he will be a bust. Will he be great? Who knows.
 
Anyone else find it funny that the only "stud" on that list is Drew Brees? He's the guy that if Wanny had brain 1 in that mustached head of his would have been a Dolphin in round 1.
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Yea i remember that. Douschestache said something like "What do those other guys have that Jay Fieldler doesn't have?" I remember screaming "EVERYTHING... THEY HAVE EVERYTHING THAT FIEDLER DOESN'T HAVE!!!" at the TV... What horrible things us Dolfans have endured as of late:(.
 
Repeat after me

Offensive coordinators do not draft players
In some teasm head coaches input but final call comes down to the G.M.

the whole brees , rivers point is mute. when scottheimer was coach he did not have any draft power but hey his OC did the draft.
 
slipperysoap said:
+

SCAM is a MORON. If Drew Brees was so great he would still be in San Diego and the Chargers would not have drafted Rivers. Gus Ferrotte is a JOKE!

I don't understand why you are so enamored by SCAM CAMERON.

Beck=Bust and the numbers and the future will hold that as fact. QBs as the first poster so accurately depicted do not magically turn into Franchise QBs.

So get over it.
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:lol:

Drew Brees is one of the top QB's in the NFL and Gus Frerotte made the Probowl under Cam. Cam may have failed miserably as a head coach, but that doesn't change the fact that he is an offensive genius and knows how to evaluate and groom young QB's. That's what he's known for, that's what he is good at, that's the reason he was brought to Miami.

Me thinks you just like to argue.

BlueFin said:
Wrong, it is a fact that quarterbacks drafted in the first round are more successfull than any other round by percentage.

The number show that if you are looking for a Superbowl winning QB, your odds ar overwhelming greater in the 1st round, greater than all other rounds and undrafted free agents combined.

First round QB's have won more than half the Superbowls.

Trent Green and Matt Hasselback have not won Superbowls.

Steve Young was originally a 1st round pick that chose to sign wth a different league.
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You can't generalize the draft and say that players who aren't selected in the first round will never be any good. Again I submit the names of Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Terrell Davis, Marques Colston, etc, etc, etc.

Brady and Montana are two of the best ever and they won plenty of SB's.
Brad Johnson was a 9th round pick and won a SB.
Kurt Warner was undrafted and won a SB.
Mark Rypien was a 6th rounder and won a SB.
Jeff Hostetler was a 3rd rounder and won the SB.

What does this all mean? It means that football is a team game and not an individual sport. It takes every player on the team to make it to the SB and win. To focus on one position and make general statements to justify bashing John Beck is silly, there are plenty of QB's chosen in the 1st round that bombed after being hyped as the next big thing.

Ryan Leaf
Akili Smith
Heath Shuler
Kelly Stouffer
Andre Ware
Browning Nagle
Todd Blackledge
Art Schlichter
Jim Druckenmiller
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Todd Marinovich
Dan McGwire
Rick Mirer
etc
etc
etc

Being chosen in the 1st round doesn't guarantee you a spot in the SB or even a spot on an NFL roster. Using this stat to try and make a case that Beck is a bust or that we should draft Matt Ryan or should have drafted Brady Quinn as some people have is silly at best and intellectually dishonest at worst. Football is a team sport and even a very average QB like Trent Dilfer (Who was a 1st rounder btw) can win a SB with the right supporting cast.
 
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