Beck's Odds Are Not So Good

[darth_stryder79]

looking at these percentages of drafting a stud qb, do u guys think it would be better to trade picks for a stud qb? like the schaub deal? i forgot what the exact trade was but if we give up 2 first round picks for a stud qb thats got about 2-3 yrs experience, that seems like better odds than drafting a stud qb with 2 chances in the first round. you know what you r getting and he is ready to play right away. not to say derek anderson is the guy, but maybe the dolphins should look at situations like those more and maybe pull the trigger on a guy they like. after looking at the odds of drafting a stud, what do u guys think about trading picks for a proven qb?

 

[Bruzer]

This thread is no different then the 1000's of RONNIE BROWN IS A BUST!!?!?!?!?!?!? threads. Its pointless to judge anything this early no matter how right you think you are your still wrong. In 3 years or if he is given a full year to play then maybe I will listen until then nope...

 

[Silverphin]

This thread is no different then the 1000's of RONNIE BROWN IS A BUST!!?!?!?!?!?!? threads. Its pointless to judge anything this early no matter how right you think you are your still wrong. In 3 years or if he is given a full year to play then maybe I will listen until then nope...

We go through this BS every year. We draft someone, and he doesn't play the way everyone expects besides outside factors preventing them from doing so.

We labeled Ronnie Brown a bust despite the fact he had to deal with splitting time with Ricky Williams and playing under Mike "Ronnie Brown would make a fine quarterback" Mularkey.

We labeled Jason Allen as a bust despite the fact that he had to deal with being switched back and forth between two postions seemingly every week.

You'd think us fans would learn to actually give our players time to develop after prematurely calling Vernon Carey a bust. I guess not.

 

[Bruzer]

We go through this BS every year. We draft someone, and he doesn't play the way everyone expects besides outside factors preventing them from doing so.

We labeled Ronnie Brown a bust despite the fact he had to deal with splitting time with Ricky Williams and playing under Mike "Ronnie Brown would make a fine quarterback" Mularkey.

We labeled Jason Allen as a bust despite the fact that he had to deal with being switched back and forth between two postions seemingly every week.

You'd think us fans would learn to actually give our players time to develop after prematurely calling Vernon Carey a bust. I guess not.

Yea you would think people would learn, we are given complex thought and a brain for a reason. I wish some people would start to learn to use it.:rolleyes2:

 

[like2god]

What games did you watch?

The word is waste, and no it isnt a waste. If we draft Ryan and Beck turns into a good player, then we have 2 good QBs. Alot of teams dont have one. Drafting Ryan is a way to cover all bets and sure up this position that has killed us since Dan retired once and for all.

You're right, the word is "waste".

That's exactly what we would be doing with the #1 pick if we drafted Matt Ryan. Number one, he isn't even close to being the best player in the draft, let alone a franchise QB. Secondly, why would we draft another QB without knowing what Beck can do? Beck was put in a position where he couldn't succeed, his best player (Ronnie) was injured, his WR's were in the bottom third of the league, the OL wasn't blocking for him, the playcalling was extremely bland and didn't utilize Ginn's speed or Beck's strong arm and accuracy, he started aginst some of the best defenses in the NFL in bad weather and with little or no practice time with the first team.........yeah, no wonder he didn't look like a probowler out there.

Another team was impatient, they had a young QB with promise on their roster (he was a 6th rounder btw) and instead of waiting to see what he could do, they went out and traded their 1st rounder to move up in last years draft to select Brady Quinn. Now the Browns are in a tough spot, Derek Anderson had a good year and they are going to have to pay him big $$$ while their other big $$$ guy (Quinn) rots on the bench. Not a bad situation, you say? Well, that is alot of money tied up in one position and they could have used that draft pick this year to select players like Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Branden Albert, James Hardy, Jeff Otah, Frank Okam, Dan Conner, etc etc etc instead of having that draft pick sit on the bench and not see the field for the next 2 or 3 years.

So you're right, it is a waste.

 

[2413fanphins]

heres my take.

first. I wouldn't shed a tear if we drafted ryan.
He may not be the best player in the draft, and as a matter of fact, I would say he isn't. He is good though. Better than beck, who knows. Beck is what 27 going on 28, that will be an issue in the future.

However, I don't think you can argue one guy is the best player in the draft.
You have jake long, (my fav), chris long, matt ryan, mcfadden, dorsey, an argument can be made for all of them.
I still see parcells sticking with his superhuman specimen theory and taking jake long.
Project him at a RT if you must be we have been there done that with carey. RT, LT, etc etc etc.
WE need to score more points, we lost 10 games I think by 10 or 13 or less last year.
Jake long would help with that immensely.

in respect to the browns, I think they are in the same situation the chargers were a few years back. I would've kept brees myself, but it is what it is.
I don't think they will have a ton of money invested. I see DA getting tendered, and playing one more year there, than he becomes a FA. Quinn steps in and everything is fine in cleveland once again.

could we use someone other than matt ryan, of course.
would it be the worse thing to happen to the franchise, I think not.

ftr... I want to stick with beck one more year, than shoot for a qb next year if he fails.
we have so many holes we just can't fill them all this year,
jake long, a TE, a CB and LB WR.

shoot for a QB next year if we feel beck needs to go on one of those missions again.

 

[Coral Reefer]

Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.

Great post.

Every prospect is different and has their very own skills and potential.

Highlighting an area of the draft, ESPECIALLY SUCH A HIGH ROUND, and using it as a negative to the prospects chances based on past prosepects chosen at those spots is simply silly. Nothing but silly.

 

[like2god]

in respect to the browns, I think they are in the same situation the chargers were a few years back. I would've kept brees myself, but it is what it is.
I don't think they will have a ton of money invested.

Keep in mind that Brees left SD as a FA and the Chargers received nothing in return for a very good player. That's a wasted asset.

I see DA getting tendered, and playing one more year there, than he becomes a FA. Quinn steps in and everything is fine in cleveland once again.

He's looking for 6 years for 68 mil.
http://blog.cleveland.com/sports/2008/02/pace_slows_in_talks_with_ander.html

If they sign him, Quinn is nothing more than a very expensive bench warmer. Another example of a wasted asset

 

[WVDolphan]

You're right, the word is "waste".

That's exactly what we would be doing with the #1 pick if we drafted Matt Ryan. Number one, he isn't even close to being the best player in the draft, let alone a franchise QB. Secondly, why would we draft another QB without knowing what Beck can do? Beck was put in a position where he couldn't succeed, his best player (Ronnie) was injured, his WR's were in the bottom third of the league, the OL wasn't blocking for him, the playcalling was extremely bland and didn't utilize Ginn's speed or Beck's strong arm and accuracy, he started aginst some of the best defenses in the NFL in bad weather and with little or no practice time with the first team.........yeah, no wonder he didn't look like a probowler out there.

Another team was impatient, they had a young QB with promise on their roster (he was a 6th rounder btw) and instead of waiting to see what he could do, they went out and traded their 1st rounder to move up in last years draft to select Brady Quinn. Now the Browns are in a tough spot, Derek Anderson had a good year and they are going to have to pay him big $$$ while their other big $$$ guy (Quinn) rots on the bench. Not a bad situation, you say? Well, that is alot of money tied up in one position and they could have used that draft pick this year to select players like Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Branden Albert, James Hardy, Jeff Otah, Frank Okam, Dan Conner, etc etc etc instead of having that draft pick sit on the bench and not see the field for the next 2 or 3 years.

So you're right, it is a waste.

Finally Ive found something I can disagree with you on this offseason . This should be fun. Youve been on the mark IMHO on most everything else. Apparently, youre only problem is you dont know anything about QB in the NFL. j/k kinda haha.

Ok lets start with the first bold and go from there.

Ryan is the best player in the draft. The guy is a lock solid starter in the NFL. Seeing as there are only about 20 good starters in the NFL, Id say he is the best choice.

We dont know what Beck can do???? You mean we dont know if Beck will be a good player in the future. And youre right we dont know if he will be a good QB in the future. But, we do know one thing he can do. He CAN blow. Because thats what he did in limited action last year. This certainly dosent mean he will always blow. But, stop making excuses for the guy already. Sure he played against some decent defenses and was in a tough situation. But, hey. Isnt that what he did that mission for? Being roomates with a guy in a foreign country, no tv, and no socializing with girls. Thats about as tough as it gets. If he can make it through that, he should be able to negotiate some rain and some decent defenses.

The browns are in a great spot. They have a good QB who they will sign to a 3 year deal, that wont be as much money as you think. If Anderson continues to play at the level he did last season then they can always trade Quinn. They may or may not be able to get the equal #22 pick they spent on him, but probably close as long as they keep the perception that he is a good prospect. The browns went 10-6 and just missed the playoffs. Id say they are in a much better spot than most teams. Wouldnt you? What if Anderson suffers an injury? The browns are in a great spot. Now down the line of course you dont want to have 2 guys on your roster making starting QB money. Thats just too much cap space. But, for the time being they are in a great spot. How can you blame them for not wanting to put all their eggs in Anderson's basket before last season?

The same way we shouldnt bank on Beck being as good as Anderson within 2 years. Cause if he isnt we will still be screwed and complaining about how we havent had a QB since Dan retired. If we draft Ryan, I like our chances alot of not having that problem any longer. The worst thing that could happen is both he and Beck bust. I dont think thats very likely. Personally I think Ryan is a lock to be a solid NFL QB.

 

[D-bolt]

The only thing I can really say why I'm totally against Ryan with the 1st pick is what you alluded to, is I don't see him as the BPA. I think there are a lot of top end prospects in this draft and Ryan doesn't stick out as one of them. I think the best thing for our long term health we need to address our defense in this draft in particular because of the amazing depth it will provide. Also it's the perfect draft to pick up some good offensive tackle prospects. I just don't feel like this draft is an overly great draft to pickup a qb let alone over-draft for one. I just don't see Ryan with anymore upside than Beck that justifies an investment of $35million. If Parcells and Ireland see otherwise then I'm definately wrong and I will support Ryan just like I support Beck, but as of right now I don't see any value in that pick. Once again I think this is the perfect draft to rebuild this Defense san seeing we're going to be picking first in almost every round we will have 1st dibs on solid players that may have dropped from there projected rounds>

heres my take.

first. I wouldn't shed a tear if we drafted ryan.
He may not be the best player in the draft, and as a matter of fact, I would say he isn't. He is good though. Better than beck, who knows. Beck is what 27 going on 28, that will be an issue in the future.

However, I don't think you can argue one guy is the best player in the draft.
You have jake long, (my fav), chris long, matt ryan, mcfadden, dorsey, an argument can be made for all of them.
I still see parcells sticking with his superhuman specimen theory and taking jake long.
Project him at a RT if you must be we have been there done that with carey. RT, LT, etc etc etc.
WE need to score more points, we lost 10 games I think by 10 or 13 or less last year.
Jake long would help with that immensely.

in respect to the browns, I think they are in the same situation the chargers were a few years back. I would've kept brees myself, but it is what it is.
I don't think they will have a ton of money invested. I see DA getting tendered, and playing one more year there, than he becomes a FA. Quinn steps in and everything is fine in cleveland once again.

could we use someone other than matt ryan, of course.
would it be the worse thing to happen to the franchise, I think not.

ftr... I want to stick with beck one more year, than shoot for a qb next year if he fails.
we have so many holes we just can't fill them all this year,
jake long, a TE, a CB and LB WR.

shoot for a QB next year if we feel beck needs to go on one of those missions again.

 

[like2god]

Finally Ive found something I can disagree with you on this offseason . This should be fun. Youve been on the mark IMHO on most everything else. Apparently, youre only problem is you dont know anything about QB in the NFL. j/k kinda haha.

Let the games begin!!! :)

Ok lets start with the first bold and go from there.

Ryan is the best player in the draft. The guy is a lock solid starter in the NFL. Seeing as there are only about 20 good starters in the NFL, Id say he is the best choice.

I can easily name 10 players that are better than Ryan and 20 players that I would rather have then him (not necessarily at #1, but I'm not the one giving Ryan the #1 grade).

Lets be honest and ignore Mel Kiper's apparent major hard on for Matt Ryan, if the Falcons pass on him at #3 he may fall out of the Top 10 alltogether. He could be this years version of Brady Quinn/Aaron Rodgers and slip into the middle of the 1st round. His stock is falling and the only team that has him rated so highly looks to be Atalanta, and that's only because they are desperate to start over and bring in a new face of the franchise after the whole Vick fiasco, Hall meltdown and trading away Matt Schaub. They need him, we don't.

We dont know what Beck can do???? You mean we dont know if Beck will be a good player in the future. And youre right we dont know if he will be a good QB in the future. But, we do know one thing he can do. He CAN blow. Because thats what he did in limited action last year. This certainly dosent mean he will always blow. But, stop making excuses for the guy already. Sure he played against some decent defenses and was in a tough situation.

We don't know what Beck can do, he played with little to no talent around him last year and the playcalling was horrible. It's the same thought process that I used for Ronnie, people were calling him a bust but failed to realize that the OL wasn't opening holes for him and he was sharing carries with Ricky and Chatman. As soon as the OL improved and he got the majority of the carries, he went on a serious tear and was the best RB in the NFL for a few weeks straight.

Same with Beck, give him some talent to make his job easier and see what he can do. Our offense was basically neutered by the time Beck saw any action, so you can't really judge him on that body of work. Again, Cam, Ireland and Martz all feel that he has a geat future ahead of him, that has to count for something even if you're a Matt Ryan supporter.

The browns are in a great spot. They have a good QB who they will sign to a 3 year deal, that wont be as much money as you think. If Anderson continues to play at the level he did last season then they can always trade Quinn. They may or may not be able to get the equal #22 pick they spent on him, but probably close as long as they keep the perception that he is a good prospect. The browns went 10-6 and just missed the playoffs. Id say they are in a much better spot than most teams. Wouldnt you? What if Anderson suffers an injury? The browns are in a great spot. Now down the line of course you dont want to have 2 guys on your roster making starting QB money. Thats just too much cap space. But, for the time being they are in a great spot. How can you blame them for not wanting to put all their eggs in Anderson's basket before last season?

Reports are that Anderson is looking for 6 years and 68 million. And if they do decide to trade Quinn, not only will they take a major cap hit but they more than likely will have to settle for less than what they payed. Quinn is still young and has potential, but no team is going to give up a #1 for him IMO.

The same way we shouldnt bank on Beck being as good as Anderson within 2 years. Cause if he isnt we will still be screwed and complaining about how we havent had a QB since Dan retired. If we draft Ryan, I like our chances alot of not having that problem any longer. The worst thing that could happen is both he and Beck bust. I dont think thats very likely. Personally I think Ryan is a lock to be a solid NFL QB.

I disagree, we are a rebuilding team with so many holes to fill, we have plenty of time to be patient to see what Beck has to offer. His performance next year won't make or break our season, we are going to be a bad team next year to regardless.

Our biggest and most glaring weakness last year was our ability to stop the run, I think we should focus on defense rather than wasting a pick on a position that already has a young player full of promise.

Your serve :)

 

[BlueFin]

You can't generalize the draft and say that players who aren't selected in the first round will never be any good. Again I submit the names of Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Terrell Davis, Marques Colston, etc, etc, etc.

Brady and Montana are two of the best ever and they won plenty of SB's.
Brad Johnson was a 9th round pick and won a SB.
Kurt Warner was undrafted and won a SB.
Mark Rypien was a 6th rounder and won a SB.
Jeff Hostetler was a 3rd rounder and won the SB.

What does this all mean? It means that football is a team game and not an individual sport. It takes every player on the team to make it to the SB and win. To focus on one position and make general statements to justify bashing John Beck is silly, there are plenty of QB's chosen in the 1st round that bombed after being hyped as the next big thing.

Ryan Leaf
Akili Smith
Heath Shuler
Kelly Stouffer
Andre Ware
Browning Nagle
Todd Blackledge
Art Schlichter
Jim Druckenmiller
David Klingler
Tommy Maddox
Todd Marinovich
Dan McGwire
Rick Mirer
etc
etc
etc

Being chosen in the 1st round doesn't guarantee you a spot in the SB or even a spot on an NFL roster. Using this stat to try and make a case that Beck is a bust or that we should draft Matt Ryan or should have drafted Brady Quinn as some people have is silly at best and intellectually dishonest at worst. Football is a team sport and even a very average QB like Trent Dilfer (Who was a 1st rounder btw) can win a SB with the right supporting cast.

Please show me where I ever stated that "players drafted after round one will never be any good"?

You can't, because I didn't, if you want to debate this don't put words in my mouth I didn't say.

I did an analysis on this in the past and I know CK did one as well on this board, perhaps he will be kind enough to repost it.

My point, and the facts bear out that while there are success stories after the first round, if your strictly looking at where the overwhelmingly highest percentage of impact quarterbacks are found, it is in fact in the first round, no matter what you might wish to think.

That fact doesn't change the fact that I am a John Beck fan and believe in him. However, I am from the school of thought that until you know for a fact you have landed a bonafide proven playmaker at QB, you continue looking.

There is simply no position as important to winning as a playmaker at quarterback.

All of that said, I am not advocating drafting Matt Ryan or any other particular QB, but, I do think that if Parcells/Ireland have a conviction on one of these QB's, and they are available at one of our picks, I think we should pull the trigger.

Quarterbacks are valuable commodities, so having two great young QB's is no problem.

There are no absolutes when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, but there are historical statistical percentages that show what they show.

I suspect this is because teams are always looking for great quarterbacks so good prospects tend to get drafted early(yes there are exceptions), but that is certainly not the norm.

 

[like2god]

Please show me where I ever stated that "players drafted after round one will never be any good"?

You can't, because I didn't, if you want to debate this don't put words in my mouth I didn't say.

I didn't. I was responding to the whole point of this thread with that sentence and then went on to debate your post.

I did an analysis on this in the past and I know CK did one as well on this board, perhaps he will be kind enough to repost it.

My point, and the facts bear out that while there are success stories after the first round, if your strictly looking at where the overwhelmingly highest percentage of impact quarterbacks are found, it is in fact in the first round, no matter what you might wish to think.

Well again, where a player is chosen has no bearing on how well he'll do in the NFL. We could take it further and do a breakdown of where RB's are selected, where WR's are selected, where LB's are selected and we'll draw the same conclusion. Football is a team sport, using this statistic is silly and shortsighted and it's a way for people to either trash John Beck or make a case that Ryan needs to be our choice at #1.

That fact doesn't change the fact that I am a John Beck fan and believe in him. However, I am from the school of thought that until you know for a fact you have landed a bonafide proven playmaker at QB, you continue looking.

Glad to hear that, but we have too many holes to throw draft pick after draft pick at one position before we know what a player can do. A team like NE can afford to do that because they are stacked with talent, we on the otherhand are not.

There is simply no position as important to winning as a playmaker at quarterback.

Well, Trent Dilfer won a SB and his career wasn't all that special, he was also a first round pick btw. Jeff Hostetler won the SB and he wasn't exactly Dan Marino. The same with Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Brad Johnson, etc etc. Football is a team game, sure having a great QB makes it easier, but sometimes having a very good one will do as well.

All of that said, I am not advocating drafting Matt Ryan or any other particular QB, but, I do think that if Parcells/Ireland have a conviction on one of these QB's, and they are available at one of our picks, I think we should pull the trigger.

Quarterbacks are valuable commodities, so having two great young QB's is no problem.

Agreed, that's why I'm excited about the fact that Parcells and Co. are looking at guys like Flacco and Henne in the later rounds.

There are no absolutes when it comes to drafting quarterbacks, but there are historical statistical percentages that show what they show.

I suspect this is because teams are always looking for great quarterbacks so good prospects tend to get drafted early(yes there are exceptions), but that is certainly not the norm.

Again, I find this statistic silly because there are plenty of examples that prove just the opposite.

Brett Favre? He was a 2nd rounder.

Heath Shuler? He was a 1st rounder.

Where was Zach drafted? Jason Taylor? Sam Madison? Pat Surtain? Chambers? Porter? Satele?

Draft position doesn't make or break a player, their talent and ability to play in the NFL does.

 

[finfan54]

Where a player is selected has little to do with how well he'll do in the NFL. Where was Brady picked? Joe Montana? Trent Green? Steve Young? Matt Hasselbeck? Sure the higher the draft pick the better the chance that player will be successful, but there are plenty of players in the NFL that have proven just the opposite.

All that matters to me is the fact that Cam felt he was our QB of the future. Cam is known for his work in finding and developing young QB's like Brees, Rivers, Green, Frerotte, etc. Ireland also indicated that he was pretty high on Beck from scouting players whle in Dallas last year. And now it has been said that Mike Martz was very high on Beck last year (He wanted him over Stanton) and thinks he will be a very good QB. Martz is another guy that's known as a QB guru, so his opinion of Beck means alot.

So true. You can mention no names all day long to prove a point. Where are the ones who proved otherwise? typical journalsim today. John Beck will be fine so long as he works hard at it. Joe Montana was a third rounder and it took him three years to start to become great and it was a team around him that made him great too as well as the coach. The stars have to all align in other words. A little video of the opposing teams run through a day before the game can do wonders too.:err:

 

[Stringer Bell]

If a QB is drafted in the second round, it often means he was a first-round prospect that was passed on.

QBs drafted in the 6th round generally are just flyers.

There is a difference.