Oh, I have. As soon as I saw the first post in this thread I remembered back to the last few drafts and took into account where players were drafted. Then I went to the net to look up the actual drafts from round 1-4 for the last 10 years and I also did a search for some of the bigger names to play QB in the NFL. And using commonsense along with the info that I gathered I came to the same conclusion that I had after reading the 1st post in this thread.....bunk.
Doug Williams was listed in my post with other QB's that were good but not special "franchise" QB's that everyone here has been talking about. Yes he won a SB, but so did Dilfer and neither player would be confused with Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Williams and Dilfer were servicable Qb's for most of their career, but not worth the 1st rounder it took to get them. They won a SB because they were surrounded by talented players.....football is a team game.
Okay, now go ask Chris if he thinks Miami should give up on Beck and draft Matt Ryan at #1, his answer would be a resounding "No". The whole premise of this argument is to paint Beck as a bust and make a case for Ryan at #1 and Quinn at #1 last year, this thread was spawned from another thread that was going in that "Beck is a bust" direction. Chris also created his thread in '05 when our QB outlook was bleek, things are different today.
You also fail to mention that two out of those 3 years the opposing QB was not a 1st rounder and that since 2000 non 1st rounders have played in more SB's than players who were picked in the 1st round 10-8, with 2 of those QB's going undrafted (Warner, Delhomme). Think about that for a second, they made it to a total of 3 SB's and they weren't even drafted. Heck, the best player in the NFL and the guy who has appeared in 4 SB's wasn't even chosen until the 6th round......once again proving that draft position is not an indicator of talent and/or future success.
Dude, you can think whatever you want, but that doesn't make you right and it doesn't debunk the statistical facts. 23-42 Superbowls have been won by first round quarterbacks.
The 1st round contains now 32 picks, all the other rounds and undrafted free agents amounts to well over 200, and yet QB's from the 1st round have won most of the superbowls.
The other factor is the rules changes which have emphasized the throwing game, allowing receivers to run free, having a quarterback who can make plays is critical now more than ever.
The two Superbowl era's in Dolphin history were led by Dolphin quarterbacks drafted in round 1.
None of this is suggesting that a quarterback from anywhere can't make it, were talking about probabilities here.
Yes, there are the rare examples of the Tom Brady's or Joe Montana's, I think thread starter was showing the higher probability of the failure of QB's drafted in round 2, where Beck was taken.
You can be in denial about this all you want, if you truly ever do an analysis,(and I know you haven't by what you say, 10 years is not enough), you will find out your wrong.
And again, none of my argument has anything to do with suggesting John Beck is a bust, nor was Chris's, I have no need to go ask him, because I know, like myself, he realizes its too early to pass judgment on Beck.
Beck has nothing to do with statistical fact, hopefully he will be one of the exceptions from that much smaller percentage that DOES make it, not being drafted in the first round.
your right, if it wasn't for that awesome output by the Giants Offense they would've lost. Seriously now that was all the Giants Defense that won that game. How can you say that Great defense to create the win is Obsolete. One thing my coach always told me when I played defense "they can't win if they don't score!"
