That's an excellent summary. I had no idea the Bills fanbase wasn't mature enough to accept one defeat. I assumed they would take in stride. Instead I was stunned at the themes I was seeing. This was only weeks after the Matt Araiza situation that I thought their fans handled very well.
In particular, the Bills fans seem to be totally clueless regarding situational influence in the NFL. That was hardly a positive scenario they were in...coming off a lopsided home victory on Monday Night then traveling on a short week. That is a scenario that normally promotes a performance that is below par. Not always, and Cream teams own considerable margin for error, but let's just say you're very unlikely to see a peak effort given that scheduling spot.
It's the reason I didn't understand all those projections last week of an extremely high scoring game, with Buffalo winning 42-28 or whatever. That's the tunnel vision perspective that relies on personnel, matchups and recency. It is the preferred method. I realize that's never going to change. However, I'll continue to point out that NFL outcomes are not dictated by personnel, matchups and recency. Early season NFL division games very seldom turn into wide open high scoring free for alls, especially when the underdog is at home. It's the reason the over/under wagering last week featured the familiar pattern of the public steadily playing the Over while the so-called wise guys had the Under.
I bet sports in that town for 24 years. The guys who do it for a living are overwhelmingly Under bettors. That's where the advantage is, if you are involved all year long, even if Scott Van Pelt's otherwise excellent segment always leaves the impression that Unders are foolish and doomed to one bad beat after another. Meanwhile under often feel like stealing, especially in basketball.
Last year Buffalo came to Miami in week two, but their situational influence was vastly different than 2022. It could not have been more different. They had blown the opener at home to the Steelers as 6.5 point favorites, while frustrated offensively the entire game. They had a full week to prepare and traveled to Miami as a road team coming off a defeat and as only a 3.5 point favorite. Again, all of those variables are positive for the road team. Road games after a defeat are high energy for Cream road teams, especially defensively. I've made that point countless times. The defense typically is where there is greatest variance, based on whether the road team is coming off a victory or defeat. On offense it equates to crispness and attention span. Offenses on the road after a loss tend to do all the little things well, like making the clutch grabs in traffic.
Yet perspective favors the other way. If Buffalo had manhandled Pittsburgh in that 2021 opener, they would have come to Miami as something like 5 or 6 point favorite instead of 3.5. The scenario would have been worse for them but the public expectation and price tag would have been higher.
I mention this only because it's interesting to me, and perhaps others as well, but it's a topic that never enters the pregame shows or discussion, where everyone is obsessed with the -- IMO -- trivial All-22 nonsense.
On message boards the problem with themes like this is that everyone becomes desperate for outliers. What about this? What about that? No kidding it doesn't work every time. I became a lot less interested in posting back and forth on message boards due to that fixation on outliers, which does not exist in Las Vegas. I'm offering stuff that works more often than not and be carried from season to season.
