Brandon Weeden

[datruth55]

One way to think about Weeden and how to treat this whole age thing is to think about the way you evaluate running backs for the Draft.

Take Trent Richardson for example. Running backs have a history of not really being great until around their 2nd/3rd years in the league. Everyone thinks they're great right out of the box but the history isn't there. Not that they start off slow and terrible or anything like that, just that they absolutely do ramp up around those 2nd/3rd years.

But how many years do you really get out of a tailback? When you sign one that you drafted to a big contract around his 3rd or 4th year in the league, doesn't that often turn out to be a mistake? When you re-sign one to a big contract more like around his 5th or 6th year in the league, doesn't that usually end up a mistake? I mean really, when I draft a running back, I'm not expecting more than 5 or 6 years out of him. Sure, I allow for the potential for him to surprise me, but I'm not expecting it. I expect the guy to give me 5 or 6 good years and to be a true difference maker for maybe 4 of them.

So then we get back to Brandon Weeden. Will he be totally awesome right out of the box in his rookie year? No, but I expect him to be good, like Cam Newton or Andy Dalton. Not like Blaine Gabbert, whose grades I think Slimm may have been right to question, as we get on in this. I think he's looking to peak more around that 2nd/3rd year the same way a tailback would. But do I plan on him giving me more than 5 or 6 years? No. I'll allow for the possibility, as he could realistically give us up to 10 years, but I'm sure not counting on it or planning for it. I expect the guy to give me a good 5 or 6 years and to be a true difference maker for all 5 or 6 of them, because that's the nature of the position he plays, quarterback.

So if I'm sitting here in the top 10 and I'm willing to use a top 10 pick on Trent Richardson...I'm racking my brain here, why the hell am I *not* willing to use a top 10 pick on Brandon Weeden? I'm not sure if I would or not, to be honest, but I can tell you that logic is not on my side if I would use that top 10 pick on Trent Richardson (or rewind a year, Mark Ingram) but I would not use it on Brandon Weeden.

IMO I don't think anyone is going to draft Weeden to have him sit and learn, there's no time for that at his age. I think with the success of rookie QBs over the last 3 years someone is going to pick him and expect him to start day 1, learn on the job and plan on him being the QB till he's 35 or 36...6 or 7 years. Ideally you would want to take Justin Blackmon in the first and then take Weeden in the top of the 2nd. I think if no one takes a chance on him in the top 15 then he'll be there in the second...I don't see any of the teams picking later in the draft who already have starting QBs taking Weeden just to sit the kid. That doesn't make sense.

Whoever drafts Weeden will probably be looking to draft his replacement in 4 or 5 years but now you're not pressed to draft a QB, you're looking for someone like a Tannehill that would benefit from sitting for a year or two...a Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck or Mark Brunell to groom as the backup and eventual starter.

 

[hoops]

the last thing i'm worried about is weedens stock going up for winning the heisman...he could win that meaningless hardware all day and i wouldn't budge on where i think i'd have to pull the trigger to get him

 

[ckparrothead]

You have obviously seen a lot more of Barkley than I have, no doubt Weeden as well. From what I have seen of Barkley, which is some game play, highlights, and a bunch of clips on him, two things stand out: first, he seems very athletcic to me. I don't know what his 40 time is, but he strikes me as very quick with high marks for escapability. I would say that from what I've seen he's pretty accurate, but I haven't seen anything to make me think Brees, Brady, Weeden, Rodgers, Mannig, even Luck. Weeden's throws have been spot on. People can say what they will about Luck after a bad game, but the guy looks on target to me. Barkley looks pretty accurate, but not the "wow, this guy is killing it" feeling I get frorm the other guys you mentioned. A Brees memory sticks out- a year or 2 ago, that viscious come back Brees had agianst the Dolphins, I recall some closr to ground level shots opf some of his throws. And he was just nailing it, surprising for a guy who is about 6 foot, 200 lbs if that. Rodgers, Brady and Weeden just drill it. Nobody drills it like Brady imo. From what I've seen of Barkley the velocity just isn't there, I don't see a tight spiral, I see balls that could get him in troulble at the next level. I'm just not crazy about what I've seen, and if I pick a guy top 5 or whatever I don't want those kind of questions about his arm. A lot of people knocked Ponder's arm and Dalton's- I'd take either over Barkley's from what I've seen.

You make some good points about the Weeden age issue- it has been bugging me. Kurt Warner, Roy Hobbs, whoever- maybe if the talent is there you just take him. To paraphrase John Madden, don't worry about the age of the horse, just load the wagon. I went from, geez he'd be a great 3rd round pick to man, I'd love him to be there at the top of the 2nd round to now thinking that he'll probably win the Heisman and not make it out of the first round. A curious, curious case this Brandon Weeden is, and if we pass on him in the first round and he is gone by our second round pick (assuming that we don't have a shot at Luck and we don't, I hope, take Barkley,) I will be pissed.

That's a great line. I fully intend on stealing that. :)

Kudos. I see where you're coming from on all of the above. I see throws of Barkley's where I look and I'm kind of so-so on the arm. The thing is, since I've seen the full library of throws, I can say that I've seen the other throws, the throws that prove that the guy does have a strong arm and can drill it in there, make every throw, etc. He's especially been throwing with more zip later in this season, the Notre Dame game, the Colorado game, etc. That's important because you're not figuring on these guys staying the same, especially the younger guys like Barkley.

For instance, you watch Christian Ponder play, and you'll get another chance at that tonight, watch him make throws, especially on the move...you're not going to see an arm strength problem. In fact there will be throws that kind of make you say "wow". But you wouldn't have seen that depending on what you watched from the Christian Ponder library prior to him coming out. And surprisingly, not all of what you saw of him failing to drive the ball or get the outside shoulder was after his elbow injuries. That was the funny thing. Yet, if you watched enough, you DID see what you needed to see...thr throws that maybe got a little ignored, under-represented, etc. You saw a guy whose arm is still maturing but has tremendous potential.

Same is true of Barkley. He's not Brandon Weeden, not yet. Weeden is at his athletic peak. He throws the ball like he's been doing it competitively for 10 years, because he has. The throws are pretty uniform and he makes them look easy. Barkley is still easing into that comfort zone of squeezing the football. His mechanics are superlative, but the throwing is not quite mature yet...while at the same time being far more mature than guys like Landry Jones and Ryan Tannehill.

I'm telling you, when all is said and done, Matt Barkley's arm is Drew Brees' arm. His mechanics are the same. His potential is the same. Drew Brees doesn't have a cannon either. He was DINGED on his arm strength, coming out of school. And at those fancy NFL skills competitions when he has to participate in the long throw, he comes in last place. I've seen him do it. He and Barkley both top out at about 62 yards.

 

[ckparrothead]

IMO I don't think anyone is going to draft Weeden to have him sit and learn, there's no time for that at his age. I think with the success of rookie QBs over the last 3 years someone is going to pick him and expect him to start day 1, learn on the job and plan on him being the QB till he's 35 or 36...6 or 7 years. Ideally you would want to take Justin Blackmon in the first and then take Weeden in the top of the 2nd. I think if no one takes a chance on him in the top 15 then he'll be there in the second...I don't see any of the teams picking later in the draft who already have starting QBs taking Weeden just to sit the kid. That doesn't make sense.

Whoever drafts Weeden will probably be looking to draft his replacement in 4 or 5 years but now you're not pressed to draft a QB, you're looking for someone like a Tannehill that would benefit from sitting for a year or two...a Matt Schaub, Matt Hasselbeck or Mark Brunell to groom as the backup and eventual starter.

I don't know if I implied anywhere that Weeden would sit for a year or two. I certainly didn't mean to. I meant to make it quite clear that he plays immediately and he makes an impact immediately, like a Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton or Andy Dalton.

 

[vipmoha]

Join the movement at @Bleedin4Weeden on Twitter

 

[datruth55]

I don't know if I implied anywhere that Weeden would sit for a year or two. I certainly didn't mean to. I meant to make it quite clear that he plays immediately and he makes an impact immediately, like a Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton or Andy Dalton.

You didn't imply it...I agreed with what you said and just added to it my opinion.

 

[jim1]

the last thing i'm worried about is weedens stock going up for winning the heisman...he could win that meaningless hardware all day and i wouldn't budge on where i think i'd have to pull the trigger to get him

You're whiffing on the point- I'm talking about a scenario in which a guy is playing so well and looking like such a great pro prospect that he'll be snapped up in the first round despite the fact that he'll be a 29 year old rookie. I'm not talking about Ty Detmer, Gino Torretta, Danny Wuerffel, Eric Crouch, Jason White, take your pick. No one is referring to stupidity when selecting a QB, specifically whether or not he won a Heisman. Weinke is a decent comparison in terms of age, but I don't recall him looking nearly as good as Weeden. He was what, a 4th rd pick?

It's not about winning the Heisman, it's about the elderly cat getting out of the bag, so to speak. NFL GMs, etc don't want to look the fool, stick theor necks out, I would imagine. You take a 29 year old guy and you might end up looking like an idiot, pie on your face. Where do you think that the consensus was as to where Weeden would be drafted a few weeks ago? How about now? The Heisman would get him more overall scrutiny, but NFL scouts and GMs aren't dumb enough to draft him very early just because he won the award, and they certaintly wouldn't want to look foolish drafting a guy that old that high, but winning the Heisman could provide some level of justification. But what if the player in question looks like one of the 2 best NFL prospects out there? What if he is a special talent? You don't think so and that's fine. I think that Weeden is- a very special QB talent.

Weinke struck me, for better or worse, as a very good, older college QB who could end up being a decent pro. Weeden strikes me as a special player at a (make that "THEE") critical position who happens to be 28. But your point is taken, so I'll rephrase: it bothers me that Weeden seems to be gaining in popularity and esteem by leaps and bounds, guys like me included, and he might end up being snatched before we have a shot at him in the 2nd round. Although it may seem counterintuitive to draft a 29 year old rookie, the whole situation bugs me and I think that CK makes a very good case for taking an elite albeit older QB that high.

 

[jim1]

That's a great line. I fully intend on stealing that. :)

Kudos. I see where you're coming from on all of the above. I see throws of Barkley's where I look and I'm kind of so-so on the arm. The thing is, since I've seen the full library of throws, I can say that I've seen the other throws, the throws that prove that the guy does have a strong arm and can drill it in there, make every throw, etc. He's especially been throwing with more zip later in this season, the Notre Dame game, the Colorado game, etc. That's important because you're not figuring on these guys staying the same, especially the younger guys like Barkley.

For instance, you watch Christian Ponder play, and you'll get another chance at that tonight, watch him make throws, especially on the move...you're not going to see an arm strength problem. In fact there will be throws that kind of make you say "wow". But you wouldn't have seen that depending on what you watched from the Christian Ponder library prior to him coming out. And surprisingly, not all of what you saw of him failing to drive the ball or get the outside shoulder was after his elbow injuries. That was the funny thing. Yet, if you watched enough, you DID see what you needed to see...thr throws that maybe got a little ignored, under-represented, etc. You saw a guy whose arm is still maturing but has tremendous potential.

Same is true of Barkley. He's not Brandon Weeden, not yet. Weeden is at his athletic peak. He throws the ball like he's been doing it competitively for 10 years, because he has. The throws are pretty uniform and he makes them look easy. Barkley is still easing into that comfort zone of squeezing the football. His mechanics are superlative, but the throwing is not quite mature yet...while at the same time being far more mature than guys like Landry Jones and Ryan Tannehill.

I'm telling you, when all is said and done, Matt Barkley's arm is Drew Brees' arm. His mechanics are the same. His potential is the same. Drew Brees doesn't have a cannon either. He was DINGED on his arm strength, coming out of school. And at those fancy NFL skills competitions when he has to participate in the long throw, he comes in last place. I've seen him do it. He and Barkley both top out at about 62 yards.

Believe me, it's all good to hear. I'm the first guy to admit that I've only seen so much of Barkley. Given that I think there's a darned good chance that the Dolphins will end up drafting him high in the 1st I hope, very much so, that I'm being overly critical of his arm. I'll see more and time, as always, will tell the tale.

Fire away on the Madden line, my pleasure. Just give me due credit if you use it! If I were to re-write it, it might be "Don't worry about the horse being old, just load the wagon." Gotta love Madden, one of the greats.

 

[hoops]

You're whiffing on the point- I'm talking about a scenario in which a guy is playing so well and looking like such a great pro prospect that he'll be snapped up in the first round despite the fact that he'll be a 29 year old rookie. I'm not talking about Ty Detmer, Gino Torretta, Danny Wuerffel, Eric Crouch, Jason White, take your pick. No one is referring to stupidity when selecting a QB, specifically whether or not he won a Heisman. Weinke is a decent comparison in terms of age, but I don't recall him looking nearly as good as Weeden. He was what, a 4th rd pick?

It's not about winning the Heisman, it's about the elderly cat getting out of the bag, so to speak. NFL GMs, etc don't want to look the fool, stick theor necks out, I would imagine. You take a 29 year old guy and you might end up looking like an idiot, pie on your face. Where do you think that the consensus was as to where Weeden would be drafted a few weeks ago? How about now? The Heisman would get him more overall scrutiny, but NFL scouts and GMs aren't dumb enough to draft him very early just because he won the award, and they certaintly wouldn't want to look foolish drafting a guy that old that high- but what if the player in question looks like one of the 2 best NFL prospects out there? What if he is a special talent? You don't think so and that's fine. I think that Weeden is- a very special QB talent.

Weinke struck me, for better or worse, as a very good, older college QB who could end up being a decent pro. Weeden strikes me as a special player at a (make that "THEE") critical position who happens to be 28. But your point is taken, so I'll rephrase: it bothers me that Weeden seems to be gaining in popularity and esteem by leaps and bounds, guys like me included, and he might end up being snatched before we have a shot at him in the 2nd round. Although it may seem counterintuitive to draft a 29 year old rookie, the whole situation bugs me and I think that CK makes a very good case for taking an elite albeit older QB that high.

once these guys start evaluating the tape...the cat will be out of the bag...you're not gonna find teams slippin on qb evaluations very long once the draft commit date passes...and on the seniors they're already under the microscope...weeden will get his due just like all the others...he's just gonna be dinged for his age...

 

[jim1]

once these guys start evaluating the tape...the cat will be out of the bag...you're not gonna find teams slippin on qb evaluations very long once the draft commit date passes...and on the seniors they're already under the microscope...weeden will get his due just like all the others...he's just gonna be dinged for his age...

Yeah you're right about that, they'll all get their due evaluations. But which GM/FO guys are going to have the balls to stick their necks on the line for Weedenif they believe in his talent despite his age? We'll see, I guess. I'm trying to check myself on Weeden and make sure that I'm not just temporarily infatuated with his game, but I don't think that it's the case. I just think that he's that good.

 

[hoops]

Yeah you're right about that, they'll all get their due evaluations. But which GM/FO guys are going to have the balls to stick their necks on the line for Weedenif they believe in his talent despite his age? We'll see, I guess. I'm trying to check myself on Weeden and make sure that I'm not just temporarily infatuated with his game, but I don't think that it's the case. I just think that he's that good.

what you said right there is exactly why this kid will be on the board longer than many think or realize imo...no gm wants to be the guy who drafted a soon to be 29 year old qb too high...no gm...although there are some probably more willing than others you just hit on why weeden will still be around despite the talent...that and whatever the medicals comes back which right now is an unknown...i usually think there's 4 reasons a guy stays in school when he could come out a year prior provided he has a solid grade its either he knows he's gonna run slow which doesn't effect qbs but kills draft stocks he's hiding an injury (this could be possible) he's one of those rare breeds like a luck who could have come out for the massive money last year but decided it could wait or he's got character flaws he wants to get away from in his past as far away from as possible time wise before he declares...weeden sticking around til he's gonna be a 29 year old rookie has me wondering if he's hiding something...

 

[jim1]

what you said right there is exactly why this kid will be on the board longer than many think or realize imo...no gm wants to be the guy who drafted a soon to be 29 year old qb too high...no gm...although there are some probably more willing than others you just hit on why weeden will still be around despite the talent...that and whatever the medicals comes back which right now is an unknown...i usually think there's 4 reasons a guy stays in school when he could come out a year prior provided he has a solid grade its either he knows he's gonna run slow which doesn't effect qbs but kills draft stocks he's hiding an injury (this could be possible) he's one of those rare breeds like a luck who could have come out for the massive money last year but decided it could wait or he's got character flaws he wants to get away from in his past as far away from as possible time wise before he declares...weeden sticking around til he's gonna be a 29 year old rookie has me wondering if he's hiding something...

For Weeden to have a plan to play in the NFL he's done the right thing imo. Now he has a solid body of work. As to his health, the shoulder is strong enough for him to be throwing the heck out of the ball, better than anyone else I've seen all year. It is, as I've said before, quite a curious case- the Dolohins need a QB, you pretty much have to have a solid QB to have a chance of doing well in the NFL, the Dolphins are behind the 8 ball especially after missing, surprisingly enough, on both Locker and Ponder this year, and Weeden is a great, overaged prospect. Weeden in the 2nd rd- if the Fins pass on a QB in the 1st- seems like a no brainer to me now if he's available. The intrigue lies in what else may happen- trade down in the 1st and take him, actually take him with out 1st pick in the top ten, hold on for dear life and hope that he falls to us in the early 2nd rd. The other issue is what is the oppiortunity cost of taking him in the 1st- Blackmon is a stud, Coples apparently too but I haven't seen him play, Kalil- is he all that? I don't know. Does a team that is starved for a top notch QB pass on an elite prospect because he's too old- the question of questions this year imo. I will say this- without question I would draft Weeden over RGIII and Landry Jones, and until I see more of what you all see in Barkley, him as well.

 

[hoops]

uke:

you know people can say what they want about flynn and i agree the compensation of its accurate is not ideal but i'm a believer that this kid can play in the nfl...and every time i've seen him get run all he does is make plays...if we missed on a qb early in this draft for whatever reason i for one would be calling up the pack about matt flynn...and that for me at least says a lot cause out of college you couldn't have sold me him as a pro player if your life depended on it...and if flynns a true unrestricted free agent if i'm miami i'm making a call the second the clock strikes midnight on the free agent period to see if i can get him on the cheap

 

[Clipse]

you know people can say what they want about flynn and i agree the compensation of its accurate is not ideal but i'm a believer that this kid can play in the nfl...and every time i've seen him get run all he does is make plays...if we missed on a qb early in this draft for whatever reason i for one would be calling up the pack about matt flynn...and that for me at least says a lot cause out of college you couldn't have sold me him as a pro player if your life depended on it...and if flynns a true unrestricted free agent if i'm miami i'm making a call the second the clock strikes midnight on the free agent period to see if i can get him on the cheap

I'd take a hard look to if he's a UFA. But I'm pretty sure I'm backing away from a 1st.

 

[MD]

Lot of great info here. I really like Weeden and am not the least bit concerned about his age. He is an instant impact at QB that the Dolphins can get 7-8 years of solid play and that provides plenty of time to groom a successor. For me this is a no brainer and not to doubt the gurus that I have the utmost respect for, I think uour nuts if you think Weeden will last until the second round.

This is the first year in a long time I have paid attention to college football as a whole and am excited about the QB class this year.