Even if Buffalo goes 1-4, we have to go 3-2 to win the division. Their 4-0 record in the division right now gives them the advantage if we tie. My point is we shouldn’t care about Buffalo. We have to win 3 games for a chance at the division or wild card spot.
If Buffalo loses to NE and Miami, and Miami beats NE and Buf and end up with the same Divisional record (4-2) as Buffalo, which would also have to be 11-5 overall record. AFTER DIVISIONAL, it's conference record tie breakers at that point because head to head would be 1-1.
Right now, the Bills are 8-3 (6-2 conf), with SF, Den, PIT, NE, and Mia. The scenario for Fins to take division if same record as Buf at end of season:
Buffalo:
Losing to NE and Mia, beat SF, Den, and lose to Pit, would leave their Conf record at 7-5, Divisional record at 4-2, and overall at 11-5.
Miami:
Wins against at least 4 of 5 remaining opponents, since ALL are conference games. Of those 4 must wins, Mia MUST beat NE & Buf, and 2 of 3 of Cin, KC, and LV. This would put Miami at 11-5 overall, 4-2 Divisional, and Conf record at 8-4. Miami wins tie breaker with better conference record.
That's the same record scenario that plays out for Mia to edge Buffalo with only tie breaker scenario.
If Buffalo beats NE, they would have Divisional edge in same record as Miami scenario, even if Miami beats them Week 17.
Now, additionally another way for last 5 weeks is:
Buffalo and Miami finish 10-6 tied, Buffalo wins division no matter what. Conf record would be 1 win better than Miami in all scenarios. That's why Denver game hurt in more ways than one.
Unlikely, but Buffalo and Miami finish 9-7 tied in Division. Buf gets division title this way, only IF:
Buffalo beats SF and loses to PIT, DEN, NE, and MIA. They would finish 9-7 overall, Divisional record of 4-2, and a Conf record of 6-6.
Miami beats NE and BUF, loses to CIN, KC, LV. Miami finishes 9-7, 4-2 Divisional, and 6-6 Conf. Common opponents outside division, SF/DEN/LAC/LAR/SEA/LV/AZ/KC... Edge to Buffalo. Buf currently 6-2 conf, (SF and Den pending), Mia currently 4-3 (LV/KC pending), with lone game that is not common Buf/Pit and Mia/CIN.
So many variables if tie breaker gets to common opponents.
OK! Deep breath!
Many paths for Fins to win division still, but the "straightest" path is to win 4 of 5. Buffalo can win 3 of 5 and lose to Mia and lose division, but only if Buf loses to Mia, NE, and Pit, and Miami beats Buf, NE, and 2 other win. Cincy and Oak have becomes huge for this reason.
Miami could lose to KC and still win the division basically if it beats Buffalo and Vegas, and Cincy, and NE, and Buffalo wins 3, and those wins aren't including Miami or NE.
Buffalo holds most of the conference record tie breaker scenarios and common opponents scenarios if tied with Miami. Only scenario for common opponents tie breaker in Miami's favor would be if Buf/Mia tied for Divisional record AND conf record AND Common record tie that includes: Buf loss to Den and SF, and Mia wins vs LV & KC.
There's way more scenarios, and I know the stereotyped answer is
Bluh bluh we control our own destiny, bluh bluh bluh.
But it's not. And we don't.
If Miami wins out, finishes 12-4, and Buffalo finishes 12-4... Which means Buf beats NE again, that's a 5-1 Divisional record to Miami at 4-2.
Buffalo wins division.
Controlling our own destiny is what I am seeing all over this forum.
We don't control it. Buffalo has to lose at least 2 and us win out to control our own destiny, and so forth. Right now, we control our own destiny to make the playoffs.
Let's be honest... The destiny is the division. The likelihood is wildcard.
Which would you rather control your fate to?
I'm just trying to get the juices going. It's been a long time since our path to the playoffs, AND the division title, didn't involve 14 teams losing every week on order to still be alive.
