Chad Henne vs. Ryan Tannehill: A Scary Thought?

[Shouright]

You can't just look at the number of interceptions and blame the QB. There's different reasons for them. Henne's were usually boneheaded throws. Tannehill rarely has boneheaded throws. He sometimes misses a throw, or maybe, for instance the corner made a great play on that slant, can't blame tanny for that. In 1 on 1 you trust your receiver to make a play, the other guy made a play. He knows how to read a defense, Henne didn't and that's the biggest difference between those who can and those who can't.

But yet, once again, the majority of the forum thought Chad Henne was their future franchise QB when he was at Tannehill's point in his career as a starter and beyond. Very few people back then were talking about "boneheaded interceptions" as a reason he wouldn't be a future franchise QB.

In other words, when we're using eyesight alone, we're likely to ignore negative attributes in our appraisal of a player we desperately want to succeed. This is called confirmation bias, and why we should use eyesight as only a small piece of the puzzle in matters like these IMO.

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.[Note 1][1] People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. They also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

 

[enigmatics]

Comments are vitriolic because he has no damn idea what he's talking about. He just uses stats to make another worthless argument. Chad Henne vs Ryan Tannehill? Really??? How anyone can defend these comparisons is beyond ridiculous.

Look at your own comment to me. Look how bent out of shape you are over this conversation. One would think Shouright was making comments about your abilities rather than Tanny's. Do I even need to quote all the one-line slights posted his way???? C'mon. Did you not read this whole thread?

Shouright has done more than just list stats when you sit and read through the posts. So your argument is a straw man. I'm personally not sitting here saying Tanny is the same QB as Henne, but this conversation we're having is the same exact conversation we had about Henne around the same point in their careers. It's simply uncanny. "Needs time, needs better blocking" etc etc etc.

We have a loooooooooooooooooooong season ahead of us. The same people getting on other posters for being prematurely negative of Tanny after he flopped on primetime MNF are the same people who want everyone to be supremely satisfied so early in the year.

 

[CalDolFan10x14]

Look at your own comment to me. Look how bent out of shape you are over this conversation. One would think Shouright was making comments about your abilities rather than Tanny's. Do I even need to quote all the one-line slights posted his way???? C'mon. Did you not read this whole thread?

Shouright has done more than just list stats when you sit and read through the posts. So your argument is a straw man. I'm personally not sitting here saying Tanny is the same QB as Henne, but this conversation we're having is the same exact conversation we had about Henne around the same point in their careers. It's simply uncanny. "Needs time, needs better blocking" etc etc etc.

We have a loooooooooooooooooooong season ahead of us. The same people getting on other posters for being prematurely negative of Tanny after he flopped on primetime MNF are the same people who want everyone to be supremely satisfied so early in the year.

@ being out of shape. The fact that you believe any of this is even funnier but whatever helps you sleep better, man. It doesn't bother me personally because I know I didn't have the same hopes for Henne that I do for Tannehill. And I'm no QB expert, but just using my eyes (instead of blindly throwing around stupid stats) I can see that Ryan is at least ten times more talented then Chad ever was....or is. Pretty soon, Tannehill will help you, shou and the rest of the doubters open your eyes too.

 

[ojmcduffy]

Just to be devils advocate... Didn't we sign brandon marshall so henne would have a "real nfl wideout" to throw to. Now we spent big money signing Mike Wallace so Tanny would have a " real nfl wideout " to throw to. Tanny had a bad game monday night these things happen. Honestly I don't think hes had a bad game since his first start in houston.
If the idiots in atlanta hadn't given up on a young qb from USM after throwing 1 pick six brett farve would have been a falcon.
What I am doing a horrible job of saying is Tanny is a young qb he's going to have crap games. In fact this is probably not the last one for him.

 

[The Goat]

But yet, once again, the majority of the forum thought Chad Henne was their future franchise QB when he was at Tannehill's point in his career as a starter and beyond. Very few people back then were talking about "boneheaded interceptions" as a reason he wouldn't be a future franchise QB.

In other words, when we're using eyesight alone, we're likely to ignore negative attributes in our appraisal of a player we desperately want to succeed. This is called confirmation bias, and why we should use eyesight as only a small piece of the puzzle in matters like these IMO.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

I actually like where your head's at here, fella.

I'm going to bring up ANOTHER QB for a reference point. Another guy who "could have been" the Dolphins savior...but ended up not being. I remember a lot of division here about this guy's future.

In his first full NFL season, he had 17 TD, 16 INT, and a 76.9 QBR. The future looked bright for the kid.

However, through the first four games of his second season, he regressed a little. He threw 4 TD and 7 INT, on his way to an injury-shortened season with 11 TD and 15 INT, with a QBR of 67.5

Yet another guy who DIDN'T end up being the Miami Dolphins franchise QB.

Now...he didn't become that guy for a completely different reason.

Every STATISTIC I just gave you is accurate. Every statement is true. The QB I just spouted stats for is Drew Brees.

Now, is it reasonable stating "Tannehill is going to become a similar QB to Drew Brees, I have proven it through statistics, and if you disagree, it's confirmation bias?"

Of course not. That would be one of the dumbest arguments in the history of Man.

 

[Shouright]

I'm going to bring up ANOTHER QB for a reference point. Another guy who "could have been" the Dolphins savior...but ended up not being. I remember a lot of division here about this guy's future.

In his first full NFL season, he had 17 TD, 16 INT, and a 76.9 QBR. The future looked bright for the kid.

However, through the first four games of his second season, he regressed a little. He threw 4 TD and 7 INT, on his way to an injury-shortened season with 11 TD and 15 INT, with a QBR of 67.5

Yet another guy who DIDN'T end up being the Miami Dolphins franchise QB.

Now...he didn't become that guy for a completely different reason.

Every STATISTIC I just gave you is accurate. Every statement is true. The QB I just spouted stats for is Drew Brees.

Interesting. Was there anything posted in the past in the forum you can dig up to indicate that the majority of people here thought Brees would be a successful QB at the time, based on what they were seeing then? If so, I'd have to admit I'm wrong in thinking we're prone to confirmation bias in our evaluations of our own QBs early in their careers.

 

[The Goat]

Interesting. Was there anything posted in the past in the forum you can dig up to indicate that the majority of people here thought Brees would be a successful QB at the time, based on what they were seeing then? If so, I'd have to admit I'm wrong in thinking we're prone to confirmation bias in our evaluations of our own QBs early in their careers.

Irrelevant. I have proven my point through stats

 

[Birdmond]

No, you are just an impatient contrarian that has never given Tannehill a chance.

No I see a QB with tiny hands and zero pocket presences and I said it BEFORE THE DRAFT fan boy.

 

[mrbunglez]

No I see a QB with tiny hands and zero pocket presences and I said it BEFORE THE DRAFT fan boy.

Jim Druckenmiller had 11 inch hands, how'd that turn out?


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[ojmcduffy]

The comparison isn't possible right now. Tanny has had 20 starts in the nfl. Chad Henne was here for like 4 years. Theres no way to compair the body of work because Tanny doesn't have the body of work yet. I am a huge Tannehill supporter. Last year i watched college football for the first time in a decade without looking for a franchise qb in the up coming draft. Sometimes Qb just throw in a crapper. I can remember Marino throwing back to back pick sixes in like 1998. Bob Griese said you learn more from losing than you do from winning.

 

[Shouright]

Irrelevant. I have proven my point through stats

You've proven a point through stats, but the point you've proven isn't relevant to the one made originally in the thread.

The point made originally in the thread is that there is nothing objective statistically to suggest that our subjective impressions of Ryan Tannehill at this point in his career as a starter are less erroneous than the subjective impressions we had of Chad Henne at the same point in his career as a starter.

Pointing out a QB who did more poorly to that point in his career, but later went on to be successful (Drew Brees), says nothing about the above point, because it doesn't involve a quarterback about whom we had subjective impressions as a majority of the forum at the same point in his career. The majority of the forum wasn't saying Drew Brees would one day become successful despite his early statistics, like the forum did with Chad Henne.

In other words, Chad Henne proved the forum wrong, whereas Drew Brees did not, because the forum had no majority opinion about Drew Brees at that point in his career.

You're making a point that Ryan Tannehill may one day be great because quarterbacks who have done more poorly than he has to this point have gone on to become great. That's a valid point. However, it doesn't address the point that the forum could be just as wrong right now as it was about Chad Henne at the same point in his career as a starter.

 

[Roman529]

This comparison is just as dumb as the one saying Dilfer was better than Marino because he won a ring.

 

[Shouright]

The comparison isn't possible right now. Tanny has had 20 starts in the nfl. Chad Henne was here for like 4 years. Theres no way to compair the body of work because Tanny doesn't have the body of work yet. I am a huge Tannehill supporter. Last year i watched college football for the first time in a decade without looking for a franchise qb in the up coming draft. Sometimes Qb just throw in a crapper. I can remember Marino throwing back to back pick sixes in like 1998. Bob Griese said you learn more from losing than you do from winning.

I agree that their full body of work isn't an appropriate comparison right now. The comparison here is between the first 20 games their teams played with them as starters, only.

 

[insomnia411]

Its not fair to either annoint or dismiss Ryan Tannehill yet. My problem, though, is that the mere suggestion that you aren't sold on Tannehill yet gets you flamed like no tomorrow.
Hey, I liked Chad Henne a lot coming out of Michigan and I thought he showed a lot of talent and promise early on. That'll teach me to get my hopes up about the Dolphins. Tannehill has shown me some really great things so far, but he's also shown the capacity for some serious boneheadedness. He clearly has all the talent you could ask for but its way too early to make a real evaluation.

 

[Shouright]

Its not fair to either annoint or dismiss Ryan Tannehill yet.

My point exactly. :up:

My problem, though, is that the mere suggestion that you aren't sold on Tannehill yet gets you flamed like no tomorrow.

Not by everyone. :)

Hey, I liked Chad Henne a lot coming out of Michigan and I thought he showed a lot of talent and promise early on. That'll teach me to get my hopes up about the Dolphins.

Good. But I suspect there is variation here in how much people are able and willing to admit their fallibility in that regard. We'd rather think our "vision" is flawless, regardless of the fact that it's been proven not to be.