Christian Wilkins and the reality of our cap situation

[Danny]

Sure we can. The NFL salary cap allows teams to afford anything they want. It’s just a matter of how much of their future they’re willing to mortgage.

We should mortgage it extensively. We need to go all in. We have not won a playoff game in 23 years. We can’t allow ourselves to get worse this offseason.

If we’re going to have to suck in 2027 as a result, fine. Terms accepted. We’ve sucked for 23 years so we’ll be well prepared for it.

but we went all in this season and look at what happened. I'm sure every fan would like to have Wilkins back but it's a matter of what we can afford.....on the one hand you’re saying we have to go all in but OTOH you're willing to let go of 3 players just to keep Wilkins......now here's my question ......we had Wilkins plus those 3 players this season and we still didn’t win a playoff game.......but you're ready to lose 3 starters and you think that'd make the team better how?

 

[Long suffering fan]

Tough decisions ahead.
Wilkins has earned his chance at big money.
This is why Grier makes his money.
This off-season and the next we have a few of our core players that need a new contract.
If we could draft O/l then let Williams and Hunt and eventually Armstead go but Grier's history of bad selections means we will have to sign either Hunt or Williams.

 

[Marino2.0]

but we went all in this season and look at what happened. I'm sure every fan would like to have Wilkins back but it's a matter of what we can afford.....on the one hand you’re saying we have to go all in but OTOH you're willing to let go of 3 players just to keep Wilkins......now here's my question ......we had Wilkins plus those 3 players this season and we still didn’t win a playoff game.......but you're ready to lose 3 starters and you think that'd make the team better how?

Fair questions. My responses:

1- I don’t agree that we went all in this season. We are in very good cap position moving forward. Ironically, the only bad contracts we are dealing with are Xavien Howard and Byron Jones — contracts signed in a bygone era of mediocre Dolphins football. We could (and still can) load up with more talent at the cost of pushing more bad money into the future. This is the Eagles model.

2- You make a good point about losing three players and the “opportunity cost” of keeping Wilkins. In my mind, Xavien, Ogbah, and Baker are not losses—they’re easily replaced and can be improved upon with minimal investment. And I don’t put much faith in other teams’ FAs—FA signings typically don’t work out. So I would keep Wilkins.

But I’m not an NFL scout or coach, so my evaluation on all of this should be taken with a massive grain of salt. I agree with you that we should use our cap money however we can best improve our team. If that means letting Wilkins walk because we like other FAs better, I’m okay with that.

 

[Danny]

Fair questions. My responses:

1- I don’t agree that we went all in this season. We are in very good cap position moving forward. Ironically, the only bad contracts we are dealing with are Xavien Howard and Byron Jones — contracts signed in a bygone era of mediocre Dolphins football. We could (and still can) load up with more talent at the cost of pushing more bad money into the future. This is the Eagles model.

2- You make a good point about losing three players and the “opportunity cost” of keeping Wilkins. In my mind, Xavien, Ogbah, and Baker are not losses—they’re easily replaced and can be improved upon with minimal investment. And I don’t put much faith in other teams’ FAs—FA signings typically don’t work out. So I would keep Wilkins.

But I’m not an NFL scout or coach, so my evaluation on all of this should be taken with a massive grain of salt. I agree with you that we should use our cap money however we can best improve our team. If that means letting Wilkins walk because we like other FAs better, I’m okay with that.

all good points but keep in mind this.....Ogbah,baker,Howard don’t even get you to the cap in March......the Howard money would come after June 1st......but once you get to the cap, now you have 29 free agents on the roster and Wilkins wants over 20mill per year.....so it's not Wilkins over those 3 players......it's those 3 players plus several more unless the team wants to once again restructure 25 more players....lol

 

[spiketex]

This is actually quite simple - Re-signing Christian is priority #1.

 

[dolphinheel]

I’m amazed I hear so many takes and opinions that assume Christian Wilkins back to the Dolphins is a foregone conclusion. he wouldn’t sign last year in the $20 million per year range because he wanted $24 million per. So,. He bet on himself, had a great year, and what, people think that we will sign him for less than $24 million per?

Then some people say “Franchise him”. We don’t have the cap room to franchise him, that doesn’t make any sense either.

Look, I like Christian Wilkins, but:

-For the money he wants you could sign three quality starters. How about Van Ginkle, Robert Hunt, and Raekown Davis in the middle. You only need another fat guy in the middle to eat up blockers and be stout against the run. We get plenty of pressure from our Edge players especially when they are all healthy.

-Zach Sieler has equal if not greater production and we got him for 1/3 the price. How do you justify giving Wilkins 3 times what we gave Sieler?

Maybe you could transition tag him to pick up a draft pick when someone signs him to an offer sheet? The position just isn’t worth that much of an investment, especially considering our cap situation and all of the players we have to sign and bring back.

If anything, I’d say the number one priority is the offensive line. Decisions on Robert Hunt & Conner Williams, and Isaiah Wynn (who wont’ be expensive to bring back if you want to). But we need quality depth, and may draft Olinemen with our first two draft picks. There is speculation that Hunt is $8-10 million per, and Conner may be more than that, although he is coming off of a pretty serious injury.

In any case, I just don’t see how it makes sense to sink the amount of money that Wilkins is no doubt going to ask for Into the defensive tackle position.

It’s a shame, he’s a really good player and I dig him, but… math…

I’m passing on CW. Love the kid but he isn’t worth blowing up our cap.

 

[dolphinheel]

I love Wilkins but you can’t pay that kind of money to a dt. It’s not a premium position.

It IS a premium position, but he doesn’t have premium numbers. He has a tendency to disappear in big games and is always good for a stupid boneheaded penalty.

 

[dolphinheel]

This is actually quite simple - Re-signing Christian is priority #1.

It’s actually not that simple. This isn’t fantasy football.

 

[Kyndig]

It IS a premium position, but he doesn’t have premium numbers. He has a tendency to disappear in big games and is always good for a stupid boneheaded penalty.

Actually u have it backwards. Is not a premium position in that it is usually second to edge and corner on defense, but Wilkins had 9 sacks which is fantastic from that position.

 

[67Stang]

This reminds me of the Landry situation a few years back. Landry was a good, not great receiver....definitely not a #1. However, he wanted #1 money. Luckily we didn't pay it to him, because he never was the type of player who would be elite.

Wilkins is the same way, good not great. He also has shown a tendency in his career here to do some bonehead silly stuff. I like him, but he is not a Donald or even Chris Jones type of player. Someone will pay Wilkins more than what he deserves (and good for him), it just won't be us.

 

[gofins60]

Wilkins is the same way, good not great. He also has shown a tendency in his career here to do some bonehead silly stuff.

This is the thing that rarely gets mentioned. No matter how good Wilkins may or may not be, he's basically just a big, immature kid with a violent streak who has little to no self-control. For every handful of nice plays he makes, he's guaranteed to do something incredibly stupid that hurts the team. He's a big guy, and because of his hyper actions with limited control, during celebrations he becomes a possible danger to his teammates. I'm sure that Preston Williams can attest to this.

On one hand, he's "mostly" an asset to the defense. On the other hand, he's not a superstar and doesn't deserve to be paid like one. He's worth keeping at a reasonable cost, but I wouldn't overpay for him.

 

[Bretaw131313]

He‘s not worth 3 quality starters, he’s not. Van Ginkle will give you more sacks and at least as many big plays defense. How can you say that he’s worth 3 quality starters? Is he worth 3 times Zach Sieler’s deal who has at least the same production btw? He’s not the heart and soul of anything. He’s a good player who plays a position that’s not worth $24 million per year unless you are Aaron Donald which he is not. Remember Suh?

Truth.

 

[Rowdy1972]

I don’t necessarily care if he’s back or not. Honestly prefer him not be back. He’s not a truly dominate DT. Not one that commands $20M plus. We need to sure up the Oline. Allocate more resources to the side of the ball (offense) that more predictive of wins.

 

[Springveldt]

This reminds me of the Landry situation a few years back. Landry was a good, not great receiver....definitely not a #1. However, he wanted #1 money. Luckily we didn't pay it to him, because he never was the type of player who would be elite.

Wilkins is the same way, good not great. He also has shown a tendency in his career here to do some bonehead silly stuff. I like him, but he is not a Donald or even Chris Jones type of player. Someone will pay Wilkins more than what he deserves (and good for him), it just won't be us.

That’s my stance as well as I’ve already said. He’s not worth $24M, he’s a very good player but he’s not a great player. He’s not even the best DT in his division, he might not even be the 2nd best DT in the division.

You can’t pay that sort of money for a non-premium position unless it’s Aaron Donald imho.

 

[artdnj]

I don’t necessarily care if he’s back or not. Honestly prefer him not be back. He’s not a truly dominate DT. Not one that commands $20M plus. We need to sure up the Oline. Allocate more resources to the side of the ball (offense) that more predictive of wins.

A really good linebacker paired with VanGinkel would really help us. Gink is solid as that mean streak loves to hit to contact but isn’t elite, just nice and solid.

If losing Wilkins, who I really like, means getting that linebacker, I’m all for it because linebacker is in area where we have been lacking for some time.