Christian Wilkins and the reality of our cap situation

[artdnj]

That’s my stance as well as I’ve already said. He’s not worth $24M, he’s a very good player but he’s not a great player. He’s not even the best DT in his division, he might not even be the 2nd best DT in the division.

You can’t pay that sort of money for a non-premium position unless it’s Aaron Donald imho.

True, and the Jets Williams is an absolute force to be reckoned with, a huge singular wrecking piece

 

[Fin Fan in Cali]

Need to realize that if you lose Wilkins which I think will happen because of our cap and asking price, Davis is also a free agent. Davis isn't a huge loss at all but creates a hole with starter and depth as well.

 

[artdnj]

Need to realize that if you lose Wilkins which I think will happen because of our cap and asking price, Davis is also a free agent. Davis isn't a huge loss at all but creates a hole with starter and depth as well.

I’m curious to see what happens with Davis, I’m on the fence on how I feel about him but definitely think we can upgrade here

 

[Fin Fan in Cali]

I’m curious to see what happens with Davis, I’m on the fence on how I feel about him but definitely think we can upgrade here

Definitely can upgrade for sure, but can we fit that in the teams budget? It would be nice to find like a David Long Jr type of DT this year. He was a great pick up at LB.

 

[Mello Yello]

I’m amazed I hear so many takes and opinions that assume Christian Wilkins back to the Dolphins is a foregone conclusion. he wouldn’t sign last year in the $20 million per year range because he wanted $24 million per. So,. He bet on himself, had a great year, and what, people think that we will sign him for less than $24 million per?

Then some people say “Franchise him”. We don’t have the cap room to franchise him, that doesn’t make any sense either.

Look, I like Christian Wilkins, but:

-For the money he wants you could sign three quality starters. How about Van Ginkle, Robert Hunt, and Raekown Davis in the middle. You only need another fat guy in the middle to eat up blockers and be stout against the run. We get plenty of pressure from our Edge players especially when they are all healthy.

-Zach Sieler has equal if not greater production and we got him for 1/3 the price. How do you justify giving Wilkins 3 times what we gave Sieler?

Maybe you could transition tag him to pick up a draft pick when someone signs him to an offer sheet? The position just isn’t worth that much of an investment, especially considering our cap situation and all of the players we have to sign and bring back.

If anything, I’d say the number one priority is the offensive line. Decisions on Robert Hunt & Conner Williams, and Isaiah Wynn (who wont’ be expensive to bring back if you want to). But we need quality depth, and may draft Olinemen with our first two draft picks. There is speculation that Hunt is $8-10 million per, and Conner may be more than that, although he is coming off of a pretty serious injury.

In any case, I just don’t see how it makes sense to sink the amount of money that Wilkins is no doubt going to ask for Into the defensive tackle position.

It’s a shame, he’s a really good player and I dig him, but… math…

Man, these sorts of decisions hurt as a fan, don't they?

It seems they come along every few years whether it's Olivier Vernon, Jarvis Landry, Lamar Miller, Mike Gesicki or someone else. There's always a semi-productive player who's solid and brings a certain energy, toughness, reliability or production that's objectively respectable but who doesn't quite feel like a good decision long-term at the prices free agency will create.

We all wish we could keep Wilkins, but the truth is that someone out there wants a productive DT enough to overpay. We could probably outbid most of the NFL, but it always comes down to the player deciding whether to stick with the home team or to take the money that the 1-2 teams willing to overpay will offer.

If Wilkins wants the money, he'll have to be willing to chase it outside Miami. In turn, Miami has to be ready to lose the player.

Thankfully, Wilkins isn't a QB, DE or CB. His loss will affect the rush defense but as you say, is that really worth $24M? The answer is a hard no. And with Chubb, Phillips, Sieler and possibly Van Ginkel in the mix, how badly do we really need an athletic DT to add a few extra pass rush stats? Is that where the $24M should go? Again, the answer is a hard no.

You'd only re-sign Wilkins if you were ready to lose Van Ginkel (or thought he'd be too expensive) who feels very much like a valuable piece but that depends on what he's offered in FA. Signing Wilkins will make it very hard to re-sign Phillips, too. That's another issue.

Truth is, losing Wilkins may be one of those tough moves you just have to accept.

OTOH, it's possible that Wilkins really is the player you should keep and that expensive WRs and injury-prone OLBs like Phillips are the guys who are over-valued. Truth is, I could see that as well. There may be a reason the Chiefs (with their productive pass game), let Hill walk and ended up keeping Chris Jones. Could be a new paradigm there were DT as a core piece.

As many have argued, Wilkins solidifies the interior and does as much or more than 95% of DTs out there. He ensures an element of reliability in that front so that the LBs and the secondary look better than they really are. Wilkins and Seiler are a good pair. It would be a shame to miss the forest for the trees and just let Wilkins walk. We'll see just how $$$-oriented Wilkins is this offseason.

 

[artdnj]

Man, these sorts of decisions hurt as a fan, don't they?

It seems they come along every few years whether it's Olivier Vernon, Jarvis Landry, Lamar Miller, Mike Gesicki or someone else. There's always a semi-productive player who's solid and brings a certain energy, toughness, reliability or production that's objectively respectable but who doesn't quite feel like a good decision long-term at the prices free agency will create.

We all wish we could keep Wilkins, but the truth is that someone out there wants a productive DT enough to overpay. We could probably outbid most of the NFL, but it always comes down to the player deciding whether to stick with the home team or to take the money that the 1-2 teams willing to overpay will offer.

If Wilkins wants the money, he'll have to be willing to chase it outside Miami. In turn, Miami has to be ready to lose the player.

Thankfully, Wilkins isn't a QB, DE or CB. His loss will affect the rush defense but as you say, is that really worth $24M? The answer is a hard no. And with Chubb, Phillips, Sieler and possibly Van Ginkel in the mix, how badly do we really need an athletic DT to add a few extra pass rush stats? Is that where the $24M should go? Again, the answer is a hard no.

You'd only re-sign Wilkins if you were ready to lose Van Ginkel (or thought he'd be too expensive) who feels very much like a valuable piece but that depends on what he's offered in FA. Signing Wilkins will make it very hard to re-sign Phillips, too. That's another issue.

Truth is, losing Wilkins may be one of those tough moves you just have to accept.

OTOH, it's possible that Wilkins really is the player you should keep and that expensive WRs and injury-prone OLBs like Phillips are the guys who are over-valued. Truth is, I could see that as well. There may be a reason the Chiefs (with their productive pass game), let Hill walk and ended up keeping Chris Jones. Could be a new paradigm there were DT as a core piece.

As many have argued, Wilkins solidifies the interior and does as much or more than 95% of DTs out there. He ensures an element of reliability in that front so that the LBs and the secondary look better than they really are. Wilkins and Seiler are a good pair. It would be a shame to miss the forest for the trees and just let Wilkins walk. We'll see just how $$$-oriented Wilkins is this offseason.

I think the fact that he turned down 20 apparently and rolled the dice answers that question. He took a risk and it paid off as he had one of his best years so I don’t see him staying here for a moderate salary when someone will pay him a ransom.

 

[dolphinheel]

This is actually quite simple - Re-signing Christian is priority #1.

It’s actually not that simple. This isn’t fantasy footballu

Actually u have it backwards. Is not a premium position in that it is usually second to edge and corner on defense, but Wilkins had 9 sacks which is fantastic from that position.

No, any position that gets sacks, INTs, fumbles, or TDs are considered playmakers. It’s rare for a DT to get a lot of sacks but while CW is a great kid and team leader, he is too expensive and has a tendency to disappear vs good teams and gets his sacks vs weak teams.

 

[Mello Yello]

I think the fact that he turned down 20 apparently and rolled the dice answers that question. He took a risk and it paid off as he had one of his best years so I don’t see him staying here for a moderate salary when someone will pay him a ransom.

I agree.

I would further add that having watched him for 4 years, the Dolphins likely understood roughly what he was worth to them. Having already made that offer, I don't expect the Dolphins to all of a sudden start throwing higher offers at him.

 

[Mello Yello]

It’s actually not that simple. This isn’t fantasy footballu

No, any position that gets sacks, INTs, fumbles, or TDs are considered playmakers. It’s rare for a DT to get a lot of sacks but while CW is a great kid and team leader, he is too expensive and has a tendency to disappear vs good teams and gets his sacks vs weak teams.

Just nit-picking here but I think most educated people look more at pressures.

Sacks are generally not considered a reliable variable in the modern world with its more advanced metrics. This is because pressures are far more consistent year-to-year and therefore more reliable in measuring the rush abilities of a given player.

Mind you, I'm not disagreeing with the point you're making.

 

[EPBro]

If Grier is worth anything, we should be able to move him for a pick. I assume it’s a tag and trade or sign in trade, but I think the homegrown guys that develop nicely should reap some kind of award for us.

But I agree 24 is probably his value, but I think it’s too steep for us, Quinn and Williams of the Jets is a force And his value is more in my eyes as it should be due to the pressure he gets but Wilkins had a great year can’t deny that.

0% chance.

 

[artdnj]

0% chance.

of what, tag and trade?

 

[Etuoo33]

I like CW but think that we can't afford him at $24M. Unless...I also like having Reek around but think that he might have the trade/cap value to put the team over the top. That might also allow us to re-sign some 'nice' players with the trade and releases we are projecting. CW has played in seemingly every game since he's been here, and at DT no less.

 

[JoeFromManyPlaces]

Wouldn't it be cool if these ego maniac players got together and said, 'hey, we're all gonna play for 2-3 million less per years so we can win 10 Superbowl's and make the Patriots era look like trash.' ?? But....that's not gonna happen.

 

[Kev7]

Wouldn't it be cool if these ego maniac players got together and said, 'hey, we're all gonna play for 2-3 million less per years so we can win 10 Superbowl's and make the Patriots era look like trash.' ?? But....that's not gonna happen.

Would you do that? I wouldn’t. Take what you’re worth cause you’re only an injury away.

 

[Dogbone34]

It's a tough big picture call.

He ain't getting any younger...