Dolphins Free Agency Grade

[Mello Yello]

...it’s brilliant having Tyreek Hill on the team.

Getting your inheritance might also be sweet but then again it probably means your parents are dead.

So it probably depends on how you look at it.

Saying the offense is entirely reliant on him...

I didn't say the Dolphins offense was entirely reliant on him.

I said, 'I didn't love the idea of an offense being reliant on him.'

And the emphasis there was on the "him" be a WR and not a QB. Miami is absolutely reliant on Hill as he's their primary target on most plays and is far and away the most productive offensive weapon.

In football, the only guy I'm okay relying on to a ridiculous degree is the QB because the game itself revolves around that position. I would guess most people probably feel somewhat similar. QBs have long careers and tend to make the others around them better.

A WR can lift the team a bit but the QB is a much bigger factor, theoretically capable of making literally everyone else on offense better and even covering up for the defense and/or coaching at times.

...Waddle (who you seem to have left off your list of draft failures), Mostert, Achane and Tua himself.

Waddle was selected with the #6 overall pick. While I still think JaMarr Chase is the best WR from that class Waddle nonetheless came to Miami and instantly became the best WR on the team (as a rookie).

That proves my point. Our weapons sucked in 2019 and 2020. That's precisely what led to WR being selected with a Top-10 pick in 2021.

Mostert, Achane and Tua do not qualify as receivers. If we're extending the discussion from receiving targets to general weaponry (and therefore including RBs) we could cite guys like Myles Gaskin, Samaje Perine, Matt Breida and Patrick Laird as RBs who generally sucked and necessitated replacements like Mostert and Achane be brought in.

Prior to the injuries that took out our center and starting guards last year the O line was also looking pretty good.

I agree.

Robert Hunt missing time was a surprise and Williams' torn ACL was somewhat random. This is bad luck.

Then again, when you build around veterans who other teams let go, injuries should not come as much of a surprise. The fact that Terron Armstead and Isaiah Wynn got hurt really doesn't shock me, nor does the fact that backups like Eichenberg, Jones and others limited what the team could do.

Not matching Hunt’s contract demands was the right move …

I think 100% of this forum agrees with that.

I think the majority here also believe the Panthers made a mistake.

...and I think we’ll get Lamm, Wynn and maybe even Connor Williams back.

I expect Lamm to be a priority as well. I shudder to think what we would've done without him last year. Armstead is a lock to miss time--and we knew that when we signed him. These are the choices Grier makes. It's not bad. It's just that we put our risks on the OL and that's by design. Maybe you like that. Maybe you don't.

Since we need Wynn and really have no obvious alternative at Guard, I suspect we'll pursue him, too.

The point I would urge you to consider is not that anyone expects Grier to re-sign Wilkins or Hunt. Once a player hits FA they will be too expensive to keep. The job of the GM is to have a solid player available to step in. We really don't. We're praying we can either find someone in FA or re-sign guys we have yet to.

There may be some bad blood between us and CW. Fact is, he wanted a long-term deal and got hurt. He will feel somewhat screwed (if he can return). Maybe he's done. We don't know. I'm not holding out much hope TBH.

Adding the new center from the Titans and hopefully an early round pick gives us a nice combination of continuity and new talent.

I see the new center as a bit of a project. His best stat is that he's gone 2 seasons playing 100% of his team's offensive snaps. That's the kind of reliability we need, even if the player isn't perfect.

May I ask which organizations you believe have done the best job of team building over the past 5 years?

5 years is a long time. By definition, anyone who made it to a Super Bowl in the last 5 years did a great job of team building:
KC
SF
PHI
LAR
CIN
TB


I think we're pretty solid TBH. I'm not saying we're bottom of the league. We're 2nd-tier in my mind but tier-2 is not really competing for the Super Bowl. Miami is definitely not at the level any of those teams were when when peaked.

If you're talking about Super Bowl contenders over the last couple years as being "tier-1" it has to include:
KC
SF
DET
PHI
BAL

All of those teams have either been the best team in the NFL at a given point recently or they were on the doorstep of a Super Bowl appearance.



I'd put us in the bin of "tier-2" teams that haven't quite gotten it all together. I would include Buffalo who's been super talented over the last several years and who has owned the AFC East. We also have to include Dallas whose offense is quite nice. Their roster is pretty darn good.

Then there are the new arrivals who we should be watching. Detroit leads that group but teams like Houston and Green Bay are right behind.

 

[Feverdream]

I don't think Chris Grier's ~50% hit rate on OL prospects is necessarily bad. I just think we don't have an OL that's worth very much and that's ultimately his doing.

Like, yeah, he drafted Laremy Tunsil and that's a "hit" (if you consider a player falling into your lap such a thing) but Tunsil plays for the Texans now. We purposefully traded him away for picks and spent a large amount of money bringing in Terron Armstead to replace him who in turn cost us a lot of money while missing a lot of time.



As I've said over and over about Chris Grier, you cannot lazily judge his moves in a vacuum. You have to judge the end product and then evaluate the combination of things which led to where we are. A GM can make a series of what are theoretically "good" moves that still don't align with each other.

I just think having a shoddy OL filled with developing players who need to get better and aging vets who struggle with injury hurts the team when the QB is known to be small and not super mobile. The team badly needs to be more physical and run the ball to form a better identity and yet we have an OL that struggles to run when it counts.

We hired a young HC with run-game-coordinator background who's brought in good OL coaches and we've spent a lot of time asking him to work with middling talent. Fix Austin Jackson please. Work some magic with Liam Eichenberg. Make Robert Jones look alright. Deal with a permanently-injured LT who's not there half the time. Replace multiple pieces every year.


OL should've been a key priority for this team when it decided to build around Tua--probably more than WR if we're being totally honest. I will always wonder what this team could've been had it retained the R1 and R2 picks it lost in the Hill trade along with the R1 pick taken for Ross' tampering.

And again, you probably don't feel the pressure to go after Tyreek Hill if you're not stuck with crappy weapons like Devante Parker (R1), Leonte Carroo (R3), Jakeem Grant (R5), Isaiah Ford (R7), Durham Smythe (R4), Hunter Long (R3), Preston Williams, Mack Hollins, Lynn Bowden, Adam Shaheen and Allen Hurns.


You can't isolate one part of the team. You must see the whole picture.


I probably speak for everyone when I say that I don't love the idea of being an offense reliant on Tyreek Hill. If he's the only reason we're good, then I don't think we're legit. You need to spend the early years evaluating who your QB really is. If he doesn't elevate the franchise then he's replaceable and not worth $50M/yr.

So now you see how all this stuff is hard and getting it wrong in one area leads to issues developing in another.

If we end up neglecting the OL because we pursued Hill largely because we sucked at the position and the Hill acquisition leads to us re-signing Tua all so we can ultimately come back to rebuilding the OL only too realize Hill is getting to old and Tua can't carry the team...what's it all for?



I keep saying this but the job of a GM is to create value. If you create holes that require compensations you're going to end up crashing the plane even though you appear to have a decent roster.

It is really hard to get it right in the NFL. The overwhelmingly majority fail for the reasons above. Stuff goes wrong. The bar needs to be exceedingly high and you need to be honest. You can't simultaneously be a fan and have a grounded opinion. It's one or the other.

Fans will tell you all the wrong things because they're optimistic about everything, all the time. That's why even in a year where we lost talent and signed a slew of small-time names you get the majority of people saying we did well. When was the last time a fan said we didn't win the off-season?



I want the team to win but it has to start getting in front of all the issues it has. You cannot be losing players and plugging in 1- and 2-yr stop-gaps every season. You can't draft good players like Tunsil, Wilkins, Van Ginkel, etc. and then just let them go to other teams. You can't mortgage your future on Tyreek Hill just to prop up your lousy offense that sucks because you filled it with crap prior.

We have been a paper tiger because our core has never solidified. We allow holes to develop and we patch them. That's what we do.

Honesty is the only way forward.

Long post, and there are several things that I disagree with contained, but I'll focus mainly on one thing.

You downplayed Tunsil, and later talked about creating value (you even bolded the text).

Grier was bold enough to select Tunsil when other GMs were too fearful...

Good for him. Sharp.

Then he created MASSIVE VALUE by trading him. I could list all of the players this generated for us, but everyone knows them.

...and finally, yes... the injuries. Huge, and most of them to players who hadn't been injured before. Sad. Unfortunate... and entirely non-predictable.

 

[Etuoo33]

I know. Last year they were going to avg go. Shoulda signed him for two years. Hunt prob could have been signed after year 3

I went B, by no means perfect, but with what we had to work with, just what the Dr. ordered. There were offers on the table for both Hunt and Wilkins last year, they both wanted more. Now they both get to play for negligible franchises. I think Grier has done very well considering the circumstances. I'm not happy the AVG left but he wanted to be closer to home, in cooler weather, that's a factor that's hard to overcome. Blaming Grier because players had other motivations is short sighted to say the least, and just plain dumb on the other side.

 

[Etuoo33]

Long post, and there are several things that I disagree with contained, but I'll focus mainly on one thing.

You downplayed Tunsil, and later talked about creating value (you even bolded the text).

Grier was bold enough to select Tunsil when other GMs were too fearful...

Good for him. Sharp.

Then he created MASSIVE VALUE by trading him. I could list all of the players this generated for us, but everyone knows them.

...and finally, yes... the injuries. Huge, and most of them to players who hadn't been injured before. Sad. Unfortunate... and entirely non-predictable.

Agree, and also would point out (yet again) that there just are not enough good players to field 32 teams and have competent backups at every position. Without Turnstile, there is no talent infusion that we have seen. Won't reply to the long post as it is redundant.

 

[Etuoo33]

hard to say....I like the players we've gotten for the most part and what it has costs us money wise....hard to see so many starters go though ....the hardest for me when it comes to the player plus the deal he got is AVG.....when you consider we gave Barnett something close to what AVG got, I'd have rather kept our guy but maybe he just wanted to leave?

It was reported that he wanted to be closer to 'home', and play in cooler weather.

 

[Etuoo33]

Grier drafted Hunt and Hunt is one of the top guards in the entire league. That is why he recently signed one of the biggest contracts in free agency.

While it took time for him to develop, Jackson certainly showed vast improvement last year and eventually signed a new contract with the Dolphins. Grier also drafted Jackson.

Grier was also responsible for signing Armstead and Williams for the OL and when they were healthy, they were two of the best players at there positions in the entire league.

Lamm played very well at guard before his injury last year.

The job of Grier is to draft and sign free agents or trade for players to upgrade the talent on the roster. The fact is when the Dolphins had their starting five offensive linemen on the field early last season, they had one of the top offensive lines in the league.

Unfortunately they had injuries on the OL throughout the season and that affected the play of this unit. Most teams have trouble finding five quality starters for their offensive line, much less backups who can come in and play at the level of the starter they replaced.

I think Grier did an outstanding job of building a quality starting offensive line last season. It was just bad luck that many of the starters were injured during the season and the backups weren’t as talented as the starters. That is just life in the NFL.

This is nothing but the truth here, and dispells the notion the Grier can't build an OL. Every time somebody pops off here with that bullsh*t that 'Grier can't 'draft or build an OL', this needs to be rubbed in their face.

 

[Etuoo33]

Eich ... year before kindley ... dieter before that ... douglas ... James and turner (for us) before that ... I really wanted my boy Dallas in there but may have gone too far.

I honestly thought it was worse and apologize but stand by you named the only hits.

What do they all have in common? None are premium picks, with the exception of EichenBerry. Note the number of NFL players that are drafted after the second round, all positions that play more than 2 years as a percentage. Count those names and then match them to our starters early last year and you come in around 50% success rate for his additions.

 

[Etuoo33]

I don't think Chris Grier's ~50% hit rate on OL prospects is necessarily bad. I just think we don't have an OL that's worth very much and that's ultimately his doing.

Like, yeah, he drafted Laremy Tunsil and that's a "hit" (if you consider a player falling into your lap such a thing) but Tunsil plays for the Texans now. We purposefully traded him away for picks and spent a large amount of money bringing in Terron Armstead to replace him who in turn cost us a lot of money while missing a lot of time.



As I've said over and over about Chris Grier, you cannot lazily judge his moves in a vacuum. You have to judge the end product and then evaluate the combination of things which led to where we are. A GM can make a series of what are theoretically "good" moves that still don't align with each other.

I just think having a shoddy OL filled with developing players who need to get better and aging vets who struggle with injury hurts the team when the QB is known to be small and not super mobile. The team badly needs to be more physical and run the ball to form a better identity and yet we have an OL that struggles to run when it counts.

We hired a young HC with run-game-coordinator background who's brought in good OL coaches and we've spent a lot of time asking him to work with middling talent. Fix Austin Jackson please. Work some magic with Liam Eichenberg. Make Robert Jones look alright. Deal with a permanently-injured LT who's not there half the time. Replace multiple pieces every year.


OL should've been a key priority for this team when it decided to build around Tua--probably more than WR if we're being totally honest. I will always wonder what this team could've been had it retained the R1 and R2 picks it lost in the Hill trade along with the R1 pick taken for Ross' tampering.

And again, you probably don't feel the pressure to go after Tyreek Hill if you're not stuck with crappy weapons like Devante Parker (R1), Leonte Carroo (R3), Jakeem Grant (R5), Isaiah Ford (R7), Durham Smythe (R4), Hunter Long (R3), Preston Williams, Mack Hollins, Lynn Bowden, Adam Shaheen and Allen Hurns.


You can't isolate one part of the team. You must see the whole picture.


I probably speak for everyone when I say that I don't love the idea of being an offense reliant on Tyreek Hill. If he's the only reason we're good, then I don't think we're legit. You need to spend the early years evaluating who your QB really is. If he doesn't elevate the franchise then he's replaceable and not worth $50M/yr.

So now you see how all this stuff is hard and getting it wrong in one area leads to issues developing in another.

If we end up neglecting the OL because we pursued Hill largely because we sucked at the position and the Hill acquisition leads to us re-signing Tua all so we can ultimately come back to rebuilding the OL only too realize Hill is getting to old and Tua can't carry the team...what's it all for?



I keep saying this but the job of a GM is to create value. If you create holes that require compensations you're going to end up crashing the plane even though you appear to have a decent roster.

It is really hard to get it right in the NFL. The overwhelmingly majority fail for the reasons above. Stuff goes wrong. The bar needs to be exceedingly high and you need to be honest. You can't simultaneously be a fan and have a grounded opinion. It's one or the other.

Fans will tell you all the wrong things because they're optimistic about everything, all the time. That's why even in a year where we lost talent and signed a slew of small-time names you get the majority of people saying we did well. When was the last time a fan said we didn't win the off-season?



I want the team to win but it has to start getting in front of all the issues it has. You cannot be losing players and plugging in 1- and 2-yr stop-gaps every season. You can't draft good players like Tunsil, Wilkins, Van Ginkel, etc. and then just let them go to other teams. You can't mortgage your future on Tyreek Hill just to prop up your lousy offense that sucks because you filled it with crap prior.

We have been a paper tiger because our core has never solidified. We allow holes to develop and we patch them. That's what we do.

Honesty is the only way forward.

Indeed, but if you look at the whole picture, Grier had to improve the entire roster not just the OL. We needed a QB in the worst way when he took over, we had no DL to speak of no speed at WR, etc... Those positions are improved, but there's not enough high draft choices and FA money to re-build everything in one year. Even if we had the draft choices, eventually you have to pay them if they produce, think Hunt and Wilkins. My point? You only have so much in the way of resources, you can't draft OL in the 1st round every year nor can you fix it in a year without neglecting the whole roster.

 

[dolphan117]

I voted C, I think our talent level has dropped some but IMO Grier deserves an A. The reality is that with our current cap situation there was no way to resign everyone and upgrade our talent on paper. IMO he has done an outstanding job this offseason, much better than I feared, and we still have the draft. It will be up to our coaches to take the players and fold them into our scheme, develop the talent, and turn it all into a team that can contend and win games.

If I wanted to pick a bone with Grier it would probably be not giving AVG a new deal mid season last year when he really started coming on and you could have locked him up for more reasonable money the way he did Seiler.

 

[Stoobz]

A solid B+ from me, all things considered.

For all the snarling, wailing, hand wringing and gnashing of teeth early on, he brought several viable starters in which some could meet or exceed the expectations of those departed.

As always, there's still work to be done.

Always and forever.

 

[Mello Yello]

Long post, and there are several things that I disagree with contained, but I'll focus mainly on one thing.

You downplayed Tunsil, and later talked about creating value (you even bolded the text).

Grier was bold enough to select Tunsil when other GMs were too fearful...

Good for him. Sharp.

Then he created MASSIVE VALUE by trading him. I could list all of the players this generated for us, but everyone knows them.

...and finally, yes... the injuries. Huge, and most of them to players who hadn't been injured before. Sad. Unfortunate... and entirely non-predictable.

I'll give you an honest answer for the sake of being respectful here.

Don't feel the need to respond if this is too long-winded. It's just an explanation of how I see things like what you're referring to.




When it comes to the team, I evaluate the players on the field. Not hard to imagine that.

When it comes to the moves a GM makes, I evaluate the decisions and not necessarily how the player turns out (which the conditions he's dropped into often affect greatly along with things like injury).

I either credit the GM with making a defensible decision or I blame him for doing something impulsive (e.g. Jeff Ireland trading up for Dion Jordan). I'm actually way more inclined to like Chris Grier's high picks that you probably think. From what I can see, it's really hard to create value with picks between #10 and #20 in the draft. We need to understand that before we get to Tunsil (who was taken at #13).

We expect a certain level of solid production: Devante Parker, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Christian Wilkins, etc. and yet we also know in the back of our minds that busts are totally possible, even likely. Picks in the middle of R1 leave the GM between a rock and a hard place. He's got to find a productive player and will be blamed for any busts but at the same time, it's really hard to find special players in that area since the elites probably went Top-5 or Top-10.

Let me explain how I look at things:

I don't fault Chris Grier for Devante Parker always being injured. That's on DVP himself. Parker was a suitable choice at pick #14 for a team needing WR talent. He had great size and even good speed when he came into the NFL.

I don't fault Grier for taking Christian Wilkins who was the "safe" pick even though Dexter Lawrence and Jeffry Simmons went immediately after and turned out to be more iconic players. I would've taken Wilkins as well even though his NFL upside wasn't as high (which everyone knew due to his size). Wilkins was never going to be a world-beater (and he wasn't IMHO) but his high-motor and great character made him a suitable candidate for a rebuilding team. We knew what we were getting with Wilkins and that's worth something in and of itself.

I don't even really fault Grier much for Noah Igbinoghene who was a CB with elite athleticism and starter experience coming out of the SEC. How often are those guys busts? If you're going to throw a pick at someone you could do a lot worse. We also had a Secondary-specialist as our HC at that time.

When fans say, 'well, Grier should've taken a RB,' who exactly is willing to stand up and defend that idea--a RB in R1?! Moreover, the majority probably would've taken Edwards-Helaire the LSU product who was being compared to Emmitt Smith and who was getting the most press because of LSU's National Championship. And he's done absolutely nothing. And for the record, Jonathan Taylor in Indy is the product of a system and a great OL. So no, Grier went after a good prospect at a VERY expensive position thinking he had good coaching to develop a prospects who was a bit raw. It's a worthy gamble. You don't see me going around shouting about how Grier's an idiot because of Noah Igbinoghene.



I don't mind Grier's strategy of picking "safe" picks in R1. I think his best pick in R1 was Jaelan Phillips. Nobody really saw that coming and Phillips was a risk for sure given his concussion history. He played for multiple schools back before that was a thing. He was a big gamble. But Grier found us a very good player and did it with a pick where it's really hard to create positive value.


Anyway, this was all about Tunsil, right? My take on that is I loved the pick--us doing something others would not--but I didn't like trading him away because I understood that (A) even R1 has a 50% hit rate and therefore only 1 of those 2 picks we received would probably end up meaning something and (2) really we weren't creating value by losing such a great player. We were simply spreading his productivity to other positions where we lacked talent and would likely lose out on having a singularly great player anywhere.

Tunsil was one of the best LT in the NFL at that point and I believe you should build around those types of players. I know we didn't want to spend $$$ on him and he was due a contract but if you're going to pay someone (with a QB on a rookie deal) why not have it be the LT?



Finally--and thank you for getting this far--there's 1 thing you need to know about me. I do not think that tanking is smart. While I have no ethical issues with the strategy at all, it does not look to me like a smart strategy. Our thinking appeared to be that we were going to accumulate so many draft picks that we'd be able to make whatever move we needed to find our franchise QB.

Not only did that theory flop when it came out that we could not make a trade for Burrow happen but we also ignored the reality that most QBs in the NFL were not taken at pick #1 or #2.

I explained this back in 2019 and 2020 but if you survey the NFL, it becomes abundantly clear that hitting on a QB often entails the 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th QB in the draft.

Mahomes & Watson went behind Trubisky for instance. Josh Allen went after Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Lamar Jackson was taken well after Josh Rosen. Dak Prescott , Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson were taken in the mid-rounds.

This has always been true. Roethlisberger went at #11 as the 3rd QB in 2004. Aaron Rodgers went at #24 as the 2nd QB taken in 2005.

And the trend has continued post-Tua as well. Jordan Love went at #26 as the 4th QB in 2020. Jalen Hurts went at #53 as the 5th QB in 2020. Brock Purdy was the 9th QB taken in 2022. Even CJ Stroud was the 2nd QB off the board.

This idea that you needed to be #1 overall to get your guy was always dumb. It made no sense to me given what we actual see. And this isn't saying anything about how many QBs bust in the Top-5 either. Half the guys picked end up being useless.

You can also note that a lot of #1 picks that last end up being better on their 2nd team: Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, etc.

We didn't need the #1 pick as much as we simply needed good luck, good scouting, etc. More than anything you need a good team on which to place that young, developing QB and we did the opposite by destroying the team before bringing in Tua.

It was just kind of stupid from my perspective. It was the kind of thing a franchise would do if they had no real idea how the game itself worked.

At the end of the day it all comes down to the decisions you make. You system of drafting in the NFL is not hack-able thru the accumulation of picks because the system itself is so inherently random and chaotic that a few more picks don't really do that much. You just have to be lucky enough to hit on the right guys. One team gets Liam Eichenberg while another gets Creed Humphrey. There's no way around that thru shear brute force.

And if you truly feel that trading Laremy Tunsil got us here....where exactly is here?

For a franchise LT you acquired the 2020 R1 pick (Tua), the 2021 R1 pick (Waddle) and the 2021 R2 pick (Holland).

Thing is, you didn't have to go after Tua. We could've sat in place and had either Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts. Is that so unthinkable?

Waddle is a nice piece but again you only needed WR that high because of all the prior years of bad GM'ing (go back to all those receiving options I listed before). Waddle is good but imagine a team that didn't have to pick WR in the Top-10...and would Penei Sewell not have been a more solid addition for a team that was later going to sell the farm for another WR anyway?!

I mean, f'in hell, is it so bad that we can't occasionally hold the front office accountable for the misalignment of year-to-year moves? We talk Super Bowl but our standards are too low.

And Holland is a solid piece but not an exceptional player in my mind. He's a good starter.

You're a marginally-above-.500 team that can't threaten anyone in the Playoffs. And 2024 is now a re-set year for you because you lack the $$$ to re-sign your own guys. Fine, okay, but that's nowhere special. We're hardly in position to brag.

Some people act like we've already done something. What we've accomplished is to stir the pot of media attention. That much we've done but that just takes bold moves and big spending. Anyone can do that.

 

[RichmondWeb]

A solid B+ from me, all things considered.

For all the snarling, wailing, hand wringing and gnashing of teeth early on, he brought several viable starters in which some could meet or exceed the expectations of those departed.

As always, there's still work to be done.

Always and forever.

Hi @Stoobz! Can we get you some coffee this morning???

 

[RichmondWeb]

I'll give you an honest answer...

When it comes to the team, I evaluate the players on the field. When it comes to the GM, I evaluate the decision and not necessarily how the player turns out (which the conditions he's dropped into often affect greatly along with things like injury).

I either credit the GM with making a defensible decision or I blame him for doing something impulsive (e.g. Jeff Ireland trading up for Dion Jordan). I'm actually way more inclined to like Chris Grier's high picks that you probably think. From what I can see, it's really hard to create value with picks between #10 and #20 in the draft. We expect a certain level of solid production: Devante Parker, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Christian Wilkins, etc. and yet we also know in the back of our minds that busts are totally possible, even likely.

Let me explain how I look at things:

I don't fault Chris Grier for Devante Parker always being injured. That's on DVP himself. Parker was a suitable choice at pick #14 for a team needing WR talent. He had great size and even good speed when he came into the NFL.

I don't fault Grier for taking Christian Wilkins who was the "safe" pick even though Dexter Lawrence and Jeffry Simmons went immediately after and turned out to be more iconic players. I would've taken Wilkins as well even though his NFL upside wasn't as high (which everyone knew due to his size). Wilkins was never going to be a world-beater (and he wasn't IMHO) but his high-motor and great character made him a suitable candidate for a rebuilding team. We knew what we were getting with Wilkins and that's worth something in and of itself.

I don't even really blame him for Noah Igbinoghene who was a CB with elite athleticism and starter experience coming out of the SEC. How often are those guys busts? If you're going to throw a pick at someone you could do a lot worse. When fans say, 'well, he should've taken a RB,' who exactly is willing to stand up and defend that idea--a RB in R1?! Moreover, the majority probably would've taken Edwards-Helaire the LSU product who was being compared to Emmitt Smith and who was getting the most press because of LSU's National Championship. And he's done absolutely nothing. And for the record, Jonathan Taylor in Indy is the product of a system and a great OL. So no, Grier went after a good prospect at a VERY expensive position. It's a worthy gamble. You don't see me going around shouting about how Grier's an idiot because of Noah Igbinoghene.



I don't mind Grier's strategy of picking "safe" picks in R1. I think his best pick in R1 was Jaelan Phillips. Nobody really saw that coming and Phillips was a risk for sure given his concussion history. He played for multiple schools back before that was a thing. He was a big gamble. But Grier found us a very good player and did it with a pick where it's really hard to create positive value.


Anyway, this was all about Tunsil, right? My take on that is I loved the pick--us doing something others would not--but I didn't like trading him away because I understood that (A) even R1 has a 50% hit rate and therefore only 1 of those 2 picks we received would probably end up meaning something and (2) really we weren't creating value by losing such a great player. We were simply spreading his productivity to other positions where we lacked talent and would likely lose out on having a singularly great player anywhere.

Tunsil was one of the best LT in the NFL at that point and I believe you should build around those types of players. I know we didn't want to spend $$$ on him and he was due a contract but if you're going to pay someone (with a QB on a rookie deal) why not have it be the LT?

Finally--and thank you for getting this far--there's 1 thing you need to know about me. I do not think that tanking is smart. While I have no ethical issues with the strategy at all, it does not look to me like a smart strategy. Our thinking appeared to be that we were going to accumulate so many draft picks that we'd be able to make whatever move we needed to find our franchise QB.

Not only did that theory flop when it came out that we could not make a trade for Burrow happen but we also ignored the reality that most QBs in the NFL were not taken at pick #1 or #2.

I explained this back in 2019 and 2020 but if you survey the NFL, it becomes abundantly clear that hitting on a QB often entails the 2nd, 3rd or 4th QB in the draft. Mahomes & Watson went behind Trubisky for instance. Josh Allen went after Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Lamar Jackson was taken well after Josh Rosen. Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson were taken in the mid-rounds. Aaron Rodgers was in the back half of R1.

We didn't need the #1 pick as much as we simply needed good luck, good scouting, etc.

At the end of the day it all comes down to the decisions you make. You simply cannot hack the system by trading away known assets for future assets (which are of course only worth a portion of a player due to uncertainty & risk).

@Mello Yello You must be thirsty after typing all of that...

 

[Stoobz]

Hi @Stoobz! Can we get you some coffee this morning???

View attachment 165871

Our Hooters closed down.

In the words of my son, "worst one I've ever been to".

 

[bane]

I went B, by no means perfect, but with what we had to work with, just what the Dr. ordered. There were offers on the table for both Hunt and Wilkins last year, they both wanted more. Now they both get to play for negligible franchises. I think Grier has done very well considering the circumstances. I'm not happy the AVG left but he wanted to be closer to home, in cooler weather, that's a factor that's hard to overcome. Blaming Grier because players had other motivations is short sighted to say the least, and just plain dumb on the other side.

Oh I agree. I think Grier did okay. I totally know for a fact that avg just wanted to be closer to home. Still last year it would have Been nice to give him two year deal. Unless he didn’t want years. I find that hard to believe Def not playing Grier. I think they coulda got a few deals done a couple years ago if they would have paid more even if Wilkens wasn’t worth it two years ago. Sometimes you pay more based on how you think they will end up.