I agree except for the part about #18 being a spot you are reaching. At #18 you are still drafting players you expect to potentially start and have an impact very early
At 18 this year, from our perspective and needs it's a bit of a void tbh, we really need WR and RB, you can make a case for a LB or an edge or another Olineman but they are not you biggest holes to fill. If one of those big 3 WRs have dropped or somehow Pitts falls, you run that card up.
For LB, Parsons will almost certainly be gone, the next best is Collins, who offers value here, but do we really need to use a first on this position when there are plenty of other options like Bolton and Moses who may not be much of a drop off from him ?
Edge would be a luxury pick also and this is not a very top heavy class, there's not Bosa or Young this year, you can probably drop a few places and still pick up a Rosseau or Ossai (whom I really like as a fit for us btw).
Sewell is a legit option for us at 3 because he is so special, but we invested heavily in the line last year, with 3 rookies starting and you need to maintain a vet mix too, so I expect the like of Davis, Flowers and probably Karras to still be around the team, I'm not sure I see any value in us picking a Slater or Darrisaw or Leatherwood there (if they are still there, as OT always gets overdrafted) unless you want them to play center and it's a little too early for the centers like Humphrey and Dickerson and guards like Wyatt Davis.
So that leaves RB, I'm not afraid of using 18 on Najee Harris, I wouldn't personally do that with Etienne, but even for Harris 18 is too early, ideally you want to trade back. Then there is Javonte Williams, who may well be the best fit for us, and we can put of the RB till the second round where he should still be available.
TL;DR - !8 is a tricky spot to draft in for the fins this year, we'll either be over drafting someone, or taking a player that doesn't necessary fit our major needs. A trade down here may be the best way to go unless one of those receivers or Parsons is on the board.