Very far from accurate considering there are the Bills, Chargers and Bengals that are all 7-5. Worst case scenario Bills finish 10-7 and instantly beat us out.
To show you how its impossible to calculate that yet, Ill list some scenarios below.
These are all considering we win out and finish 10-7.
*If Bills win 2 of the next 5 they beat us out. So they need to lose 3 of the 5 games remaining.
*Bengals and Chargers must either loose 3 games of their next 5. Or, they need to lose 2 of the next 5 and those losses need to be Divisional. Since we do not have a head to head this year, it falls to Divisional record.
*If the Colts win 4 of their next 5, they beat us out.
And these are just the top teams. Other teams can win out and beat us in various ways. There way too many games remaining to even begin to calculate this.