It's impossible to predict injury rates between two individuals. It would be folly for anybody to attempt to do so. But I am comfortable saying that I don't have any logical, factually based reason to believe that Smith is any more prone to injury than any other NFL WR.
Favre: Smith Should be the Number One Pick
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jimthefin
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It can be a bit counter-intuitive but the smaller, quicker guy avoids injuries by avoiding contact more than a bigger, slower player.
On the other hand the bigger guy is more likely to handle contact when it eventually comes.
I am not particularly worried about Smith's health and durability as a Pro.He is exceptionally good and avoiding contact whether it is getting off the LOS or once he has the ball.
if his team uses him the way Alabama did, with lots of motion to help him beat press coverage, and does not expose him to big hits I expect him to be fine.
On the other hand the bigger guy is more likely to handle contact when it eventually comes.
I am not particularly worried about Smith's health and durability as a Pro.He is exceptionally good and avoiding contact whether it is getting off the LOS or once he has the ball.
if his team uses him the way Alabama did, with lots of motion to help him beat press coverage, and does not expose him to big hits I expect him to be fine.
While I'm not concerned about durability related to weight, I do generally worry about weight in terms of a WRs ability to get off press and play through contact. But I don't just make an assumption based on the number on the scale. I look at film. And reality is that Smith was incredible at getting off of press. I see that as one of his strengths. I've seen a couple of reps where a CB gets his hands on him and is able to hold him, but it is rare (and in NFL that is even more likely to be a penalty). He's also very good at playing through contact. He's not as physical as a guy like Chase who bullies and boxes out, but Smith almost seems to be unaffected by the contact.
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That was never my point.
What I suggested was that WHEN these types of players were hurt... then, their games would decline at a much greater rate because their games were primarily based upon separation.
Maybe, maybe not, but there's no factual support for that belief. What is clear is that there is no reason to think they are more likely to get hurt and there is reason to believe they might even get hurt less.
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If you can't cut hard... you probably can't get open.
This is a good point - while it's better when DVP is healthy, he's able to be fairly effective even when hurt. Maybe because of his playing style?
We're questioning Smith's weight, but I'm thinking 6'1" 175 for a route running, gliding separator might not be the question. What about only 6'0" 200 for a receiver described as physical, and a contested catch guy?
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I'm thinking that neither one is the guy that I REALLY want playing flanker for me. Both strike me as #2 WR frames.
If I'm thinking premium flanker, I want at least 6'3" in today's game. I want straight line speed, sideline awareness and the ability to get up over CBs. I want smaller inside, quicker off the breaks... slippery, and that comes better in smaller packages.
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jimthefin
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We don't even have accurate heights/weights on these guys and I am not sure we will get them from pro days.
But based on the alleged heights/weights available online Terrance Marshall might be only guy who meets those specs.Not sure about his speed though.
And for all we know maybe Chase grew.
Again, no significant injury history despite playing in the SEC which is about as close to the NFL as you can get. He's a guy who doesn't get hit as often b/c of his quickness and play style and hasn't shown any injury prone propensities.
IMO looking at frames and weights to determine who can be a #1 WR is a poor method of evaluation.
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There are a couple that meet my arbitrary specs for flankers, but they aren't 1st round selections (which kind of works with my reluctance to take a WR @ 3 anyway).We don't even have accurate heights/weights on these guys and I am not sure we will get them from pro days.
But based on the alleged heights/weights available online Terrance Marshall might be only guy who meets those specs.Not sure about his speed though.
And for all we know maybe Chase grew.
Now... Chase might have secretly grown a couple of inches, or Smith might actually be closer to the 175# that Bama lists him, rather than the 165# that most scouts suggests that he actually weighs... because, as the average Finheaven poster has assured me, these two are magical human beings... capable of doing super-human things that mere mortals cannot (especially Smith). But in the long run... the fact that there is such great depth in this draft at the WR position means that I don't have to reach for players that don't meet the height/speed/hands profile that I prefer.
We've got 4 picks in the first 50, and touts say this draft is extremely deep in WRs... so why the Hell would we take the first couple off of the board?!! I know that the 'Bama hype from the hillbilly fanboys is thick, but geez... have all of them forgotten everything they've ever said about value drafting? Over the years, we've had dozens of threads measuring positional importance with most agreeing that QB, CB, DE, OT are the way to go because of true scarcity and because of the long term salary cost of these positions... and now conveniently... they act like these words are in some forgotten foreign language... maybe it's Klingon?
Don't F-ing draft a WR at 3 unless he is a physical freak! Don't F-ing draft a Safety at 3 ever! These are tried and true, very simple rules for saving GMs from themselves.
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You can look at the WR graph in the study Rafael provided. Obviously individual differences in playing style / health /flexibility etc. far outweigh the weight issue because for WR there just isn't much impact by weight. The graph uses 20lb intervals at 170, 190, 210, 230, 250. The injury rate at 190/210/230 is pretty constant so no impact by weight. The 170lb group has a slightly elevated injury risk and the 250lb group has a HUGE elevated injury risk. Each group has a minimum of 20 player seasons but given the very small injury risk elevation at 170lb we don't know from the article if 20 player seasons is sufficient to prove any statistical significance. Smitty is now listed at 174lb and Terrace Marshall is listed at 201lb (will probably test heavier). Based on the graph, it's pretty much a wash in terms of injury risk due to weight.
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Ideally, sure. But, look at the KC model. They do it with wide receivers that are difficult to cover and give you significant YAC.
If you wanted the KC model you could draft Pitts early and a guy like Eskridge or Atwell later. That would be a fair comp. IMO Miami would still need that bigger back to use in the dive and anchor the RPO, but that could work with the offense that I expect Miami to want to run.