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Favre: Smith Should be the Number One Pick

You can look at the WR graph in the study Rafael provided. Obviously individual differences in playing style / health /flexibility etc. far outweigh the weight issue because for WR there just isn't much impact by weight. The graph uses 20lb intervals at 170, 190, 210, 230, 250. The injury rate at 190/210/230 is pretty constant so no impact by weight. The 170lb group has a slightly elevated injury risk and the 250lb group has a HUGE elevated injury risk. Each group has a minimum of 20 player seasons but given the very small injury risk elevation at 170lb we don't know from the article if 20 player seasons is sufficient to prove any statistical significance. Smitty is now listed at 174lb and Terrace Marshall is listed at 201lb (will probably test heavier). Based on the graph, it's pretty much a wash in terms of injury risk due to weight.
That was my basic guess...

Honestly, I thought the injury risk by weight was mostly a smokescreen to obscure what I had said, namely... that light, quick receivers are harmed more by nagging injuries than guys like DVP who put up their numbers whether they are open or not.

It seemed as if his thought that small players are injured less was more of a red herring, than an actual argument. Sort of a... you might be right, but he'll NEVER be injured... neener neener...
 
Ideally, sure. But, look at the KC model. They do it with wide receivers that are difficult to cover and give you significant YAC.
Give your QB tons of time... and have a QB with plus mobility so that he can make EVEN more time for himself... and it won't matter if your receivers are one type or the other.

But on teams where you don't have this... (i.e. most of them) I think you'll do better with the tall flanks, quick slots model. It's the gold standard for a reason. It works.
 
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If you wanted the KC model you could draft Pitts early and a guy like Eskridge or Atwell later. That would be a fair comp. IMO Miami would still need that bigger back to use in the dive and anchor the RPO, but that could work with the offense that I expect Miami to want to run.
Elijah Moore is another who could fit. Miami will likely choose to complement Parker and Geiskick with someone like Smith and maybe one of the receivers that you've mentioned.
 
Give your QB tons of time... and have a QB with plus mobility so that he can make EVEN more time for himself... and it won't matter if your receivers are one type or the other.

But on teams where you don't have this... (i.e. most of them) I think you'll do better with the tall flanks, quick slots model. It's the gold standard for a reason. It works.
Good point. Tua is mobile enough. I thought that was one aspect of his game that was underutilized, both in taking off and getting yards and buying time. Hopefully, that will be an aspect of his game that improves.

No question, Miami needs to add to the offensive line. It was a huge improvement over 2019, but not quite there yet.
 
I think Smith is awesome but I hope we trade out of 3. I'd be happy with Eslridge or Waddle or Chase.
Even if we grab Smith at 3 I'd be happy. So it's all win win for me
 
There are a couple that meet my arbitrary specs for flankers, but they aren't 1st round selections (which kind of works with my reluctance to take a WR @ 3 anyway).

Now... Chase might have secretly grown a couple of inches, or Smith might actually be closer to the 175# that Bama lists him, rather than the 165# that most scouts suggests that he actually weighs... because, as the average Finheaven poster has assured me, these two are magical human beings... capable of doing super-human things that mere mortals cannot (especially Smith). But in the long run... the fact that there is such great depth in this draft at the WR position means that I don't have to reach for players that don't meet the height/speed/hands profile that I prefer.

We've got 4 picks in the first 50, and touts say this draft is extremely deep in WRs... so why the Hell would we take the first couple off of the board?!! I know that the 'Bama hype from the hillbilly fanboys is thick, but geez... have all of them forgotten everything they've ever said about value drafting? Over the years, we've had dozens of threads measuring positional importance with most agreeing that QB, CB, DE, OT are the way to go because of true scarcity and because of the long term salary cost of these positions... and now conveniently... they act like these words are in some forgotten foreign language... maybe it's Klingon?

Don't F-ing draft a WR at 3 unless he is a physical freak! Don't F-ing draft a Safety at 3 ever! These are tried and true, very simple rules for saving GMs from themselves.
I am with you about WR at #3.

In the simulators I have been trading down and taking Pitts and then adding a WR in R2. Guys like Marshall and St Brown.

I want to move down from #3 but if forced to use that pick I would have to go with Sewell.
 
That was my basic guess...

Honestly, I thought the injury risk by weight was mostly a smokescreen to obscure what I had said, namely... that light, quick receivers are harmed more by nagging injuries than guys like DVP who put up their numbers whether they are open or not.

It seemed as if his thought that small players are injured less was more of a red herring, than an actual argument. Sort of a... you might be right, but he'll NEVER be injured... neener neener...

I don't think it's a smokescreen to obscure what you said since your point is completely outside the purview of the study. Your point may be completely valid that the production of heavier players is less influenced by being injured. Of course that is a hypothesis that would need to be tested with some data. The only thing this study analyzed was the injury rate, not the severity of injury or long term productive impact of the injury relative to the player's previous baseline production.

They defined an injury as any new physiological event appearing on the NFL's weekly injury report. It appears that until a WR becomes super heavy (250lbs), their likelihood of appearing on the injury report does not have a statistically significant correlation to weight. But that clearly doesn't shed light on your thoughts regarding the impact of injuries. Anecdotally I can say that I have seen plenty of both light and heavy WR's become far less effective due to injury.
 

This was a study that related weight and injury correlation across different positions.

"For most positions, higher weight is now associated with a higher injury rate. This provides some evidence for our hypothesis that the greater impact forces heavier players experience lead to higher injury rates.

There are two major exceptions to this trend. Heavier running backs exhibit lower injury rates than their lighter counterparts. This may be because of differences in the way heavier running backs are used. Our running back category included both halfbacks and fullbacks, so instead of an effect of weight we may simply be seeing that fullbacks or heavy halfbacks receive fewer carries and thus have fewer chances to get hurt. Supporting this hypothesis of "confounding by role" is a small negative correlation between weight and rush attempts among running backs in 2016 and 2017.

Injury rates also drop among the heaviest tight ends (271 to 290 pounds). Similar to running backs, confounding by role may be an explanation. The heaviest tight ends may be primarily blockers rather than receivers, and blocking is likely a lower-risk activity than running routes and being tackled post-reception.

The heaviest offensive linemen (more than 350 pounds) also exhibit lower injury rates than their lighter counterparts, but confounding by role is less likely to apply here. I do not have an explanation for this decline besides random chance."


They concluded:

"All else equal, if a team has a choice between a 180-pound defensive back and a 210-pounder, they may want to go for the lighter guy."

I thought this was interesting b/c it is the opposite of what I find most fans believe. Most fans seem to assume that all things being equal you should take the heavier guy. Their conclusions mirror what I have seen in every single study on this over the years. I've seen comments posted about it "being fair to be concerned" about Smith's lower weight, but it really isn't to anybody who is basing their opinion on facts.
David Boston, anyone?
 
That's funny, Boston was the 1st name I considered when seeing the massive increase in injury rate at the 250lb WR group. But Boston's last season was 2005, this data set was 2007-2015. Not sure which WR's they studied at that weight.
Boston was an obvious PED abuser, so his weight was very likely not natural.

Those better living through chemistry guys tend to break down a lot because their body was not meant to get that big in the first place.

He also cared more about bodybuilding than he did football.

I will never forget those pictures of him when he got huge, it was shocking how big he was for a WR.
 
I’m not sure, it is an interesting take. With Favre being a guy that played the same position as Lawrence, and his success being directly related to the ability of guys playing the same position as Smith (he threw to them) - I think his opinion is worth some value. Certainly worth more than the opinions of you or I, especially considering he has performed at a HOF level and played alongside other guys that have performed at a high, professional level.

My brain isn’t damaged, though.
 
Give your QB tons of time... and have a QB with plus mobility so that he can make EVEN more time for himself... and it won't matter if your receivers are one type or the other.

But on teams where you don't have this... (i.e. most of them) I think you'll do better with the tall flanks, quick slots model. It's the gold standard for a reason. It works.

KC is missing almost all its starters along the OL. Mahomes was making plays vs pressure often vs Buffalo, but his receivers were also creating separation, so he didn't have to make perfect throws on every play.

Kelce is their big target, though. It's not that all their receivers are fast and small. It's just their elite big receiver is their TE. This frees them up to focus on speed and quickness at WR.
 
KC is missing almost all its starters along the OL. Mahomes was making plays vs pressure often vs Buffalo, but his receivers were also creating separation, so he didn't have to make perfect throws on every play.

Kelce is their big target, though. It's not that all their receivers are fast and small. It's just their elite big receiver is their TE. This frees them up to focus on speed and quickness at WR.
I think Miami will look for one or two speed types to complement Parker and Giesicki.

Interestingly, the Patriots had a similar approach to KC with all those hard to cover, quick slot types.
 
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