For the Matt Ryan haters/Beck lovers...

[Boomer]

You have completely misconstrued his statement to fit "your" argument. The title of the article is
A fantastic 4, but no top dog

Teams don't envy Dolphins' top pick with no clear-cut No. 1 emerging

The entire article and questioning is based on who gets drafted number one. Do you think Heckert is commenting on who should be drafted with the 10th pick?

Use the quotes attributed to further your argument. That's the journalists' article title, it's his words. No team envies the club with the first pick anymore because of the money involved.

The entire story is ACTUALLY based on something that the writer cobbled together and stuck in a random Heckert quote.

I'm not sure what you're not seeing.

 

[adamprez2003]

No, but you're going to draft players who are able to perform and produce in the 4-3 while you are forced to run it. Hence Long or Dorsey make a lot of sense. Both could spend their rookie years in an easier to impact right away in 4-3 before they make the transition to 3-4 DE or 3-4 NT. I'm not particularly high on drafting a 3-4 NT at #1 overall either, but the truth is that Dorsey wouldn't be a 3-4 NT at first. He'd be a 4-3 DT and have one or two years to grow before making the transition.

I agree with everything you said. i'm certainly not making the argument that if Dorsey was chosen he couldnt play NT, 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT. My only argument is that you dont spend your #1 overall money on a future 3-4 NT if that's your goal for the future defense. Maybe it happens but it seems unlikely to me IMO

 

[DrunkenFan]

From 1983 (the greatest year for QBs coming out of the draft) until 2002, of all the QBs that were drafted in the first round that played at least 3/4 of their team's games as a rookie, 13 went on to have above average or hall of fame careers and there were no flops.

Of the other 24 QBs drafted in the first round that only played less than half their team's games as a rookie, only 3 went on to have above average careers and there were 13 flops.

Now considering Beck was a 2nd rounder the above doesn't mean too much, and since the only two 2nd round QBs that have amounted to anything in recent history are Bret Favre and Drew Brees, that probably speaks more towards Beck's future than anything. The point I was getting at is regardless of Beck's performance last year, his lack of playing time probably hurt him more than it helped him, so if you really want to come to any conclusions about the guy, it would be unless he gets considerably more playing time, you can forget about him doing anything in this league.

 

[adamprez2003]

It's less valid because it's one guys opinion on why not only Dorsey, but any of the players in the "top 4" will have a hard time - the guy is trying to make the case with his article that there are no sure-fire guys at the top of the draft this year.

More to the point, he's doing the same lazy prognostication that a lot of writers are doing at this time - saying Dorsey is going to have to be a NT (and he could very well be) and that he doesn't make sense for a 3-4 because of that. To my mind, that's ludicrous, given Dorsey's talent and especially given the "planet theory". If you say Ryan is #1 because he's a Bledslow clone, I say that Dorsey is the #1 because he's a highly versatile and athletic 300# guy.

Unless the guy is an absolute liar and making up quotes to fit his story only one out of seven front office execs picked Dorsey. Two execs picked Ryan. That comes out to 14% for Dorsey and 28% for Ryan given the sample size of professionals. Considering that noone surpassed 28% in the sample poll and that the writer isnt Stephen Glass I think it validates that Ryan is a legitamate option at number one. Granted we may all disagree on who that number one is and certainly Parcells may go anyway he chooses but I think its hard to argue that Ryan is some sort of insane pick that has no chance of happening

I feel I know Parcells pretty well and how he thinks. But them I'm from New York and we're arrogant by nature So far Ive been right on Sparano being hired as coach and Zach getting cut. Ive been wrong about Palmer being hired. I think the pick will be Ryan. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Could I be right? I think so. I have laid out my thought process regarding why I think we'll pick him and am more than happy to hear arguments as to why others should be the choice. So long as everyone is respectful of each other's positions then all is good. Hey its not like I'm predicting we're drafting a kicker with the first

 

[Vendigo]

My only argument is that you dont spend your #1 overall money on a future 3-4 NT if that's your goal for the future defense.

Why not? I don't care if he never gets featured on a highlight reel, but NT is easily the most crucial position in a 3-4 and paying a stud NT a lot of money makes way more sense than paying the same to a 3-4 DE.

 

[adamprez2003]

Use the quotes attributed to further your argument. That's the journalists' article title, it's his words. No team envies the club with the first pick anymore because of the money involved.

The entire story is ACTUALLY based on something that the writer cobbled together and stuck in a random Heckert quote.

I'm not sure what you're not seeing.

One could say the same about anything ever written by any writer. I for one will assume he's approaching his profession honestly in that I dont see how he benfits from conjuring falsehoods

 

[adamprez2003]

Why not? I don't care if he never gets featured on a highlight reel, but NT is easily the most crucial position in a 3-4 and paying a stud NT a lot of money makes way more sense than paying the same to a 3-4 DE.

I think a playmaking OLB is the most crucial. I come from the school of thought that you get your 3-4 NTs in later rounds. To me a 3-4 NT is just a body to absorb linemen. Red Bryant is who I would target in the 3rd right now. Also I think Solai could really come on this year. He has a great body and just needed to learn technique. I agree with you that NT is more imprtant than DE in a 3-4

 

[emocomputerjock]

I have never based my selection for number one on who is worthy of being a number one because I dont think any of them are. I believe there are only 3 positions you draft overall number 1 when you run a 3-4; QB, LOT, pass rushing OLB. Noone in this years draft is the next Carson Palmer, Orlando Pace or Shawne Merriman so that is why my preference is for trading down. But since I find that highly unlikely we must make do with the choices we have. When compared with Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston and Jake Long, Matt Ryan is the best option to help this team long term IMO for all the reasons I've stated previously. The only guy I see as a pssibility for me to be intrigued by is Phillip Merling pending his combine numbers. But right now he seems to be anywhere from 9th to 29th overall so I'll defer to consensus top five picks unless Merling moves up into consideration

What about JT? If we get Briggs I assume we'll trade JT but do you also assume that? It's not clear from that statement

? I dont understand this. Are yuou saying that we're staying in a 4-3 permanently or are you only talking about the 2008 season because if its just 2008 then we may very well end up running a 4-3 but we wont draft for one

There are two players worthy of the #1 pick based upon their college careers and stats: Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey. They are the Carson Palmers and Shawne Merrimans of this draft.

To address your second point/question, I'm saying that all of this projection of Chris Long to OLB comes from the guy's head coach, who is trying to sell him (the guy can play DE and OLB? OMG!) and not from any actual figures or even the position the guy played his entire football career. Throw in a bit of JT love and the OLB thing seems like more and more of a great deal. Show me a season where he put up the kind of numbers he did from the OLB position. I'm not buying it until the results are in. Regardless, Long is certainly special enough to warrant consideration for the #1 pick, especially if he can actually make a transition.

As for your final point, we'll be playing whatever defensive formation that we have the personnel for as long as necessary. If we've got a killer 4-3 unit, with say Dorsey/Long, Vonnie, Wright and Moses/Roth, then why would we screw with that just because Parcells likes a 3-4? What if we can't get a true old school Traylor at NT? What if we can't get the LB corps together to run a 3-4? Going by Sparano's comments, if the best guys in the draft would be best in a 4-3 then we're drafting them and running a 4-3, not the other way around.

Unless the guy is an absolute liar and making up quotes to fit his story only one out of seven front office execs picked Dorsey. Two execs picked Ryan. That comes out to 14% for Dorsey and 28% for Ryan given the sample size of professionals. Considering that noone surpassed 28% in the sample poll and that the writer isnt Stephen Glass I think it validates that Ryan is a legitamate option at number one. Granted we may all disagree on who that number one is and certainly Parcells may go anyway he chooses but I think its hard to argue that Ryan is some sort of insane pick that has no chance of happening

I feel I know Parcells pretty well and how he thinks. But them I'm from New York and we're arrogant by nature So far Ive been right on Sparano being hired as coach and Zach getting cut. Ive been wrong about Palmer being hired. I think the pick will be Ryan. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Could I be right? I think so. I have laid out my thought process regarding why I think we'll pick him and am more than happy to hear arguments as to why others should be the choice. So long as everyone is respectful of each other's positions then all is good. Hey its not like I'm predicting we're drafting a kicker with the first

Who are the other GMs? What are their rationales for picking Ryan? Are the two listed the Phillies GM and the other guy whose reasoning is based not upon Ryan being any good, but from a financial standpoint? Because one has his reasoning based only upon the fact that Ryan is the #1 QB, and the other only because of the cost perspective. If there were an article stating that 28% of all 32 GMs picked Ryan as their number 1 overall, then the article would be valid. As is, the sample size is too low, and nothing is known whatsoever about the teams involved. I dare say that based upon a combination of need and availability, San Francisco would be more likely to draft Ryan #1 overall if given the choice than the Colts, Giants, or Patriots. Again, just because a QB is ranked #1 amongst QBs does not mean that he's #1 overall.

 

[adamprez2003]

There are two players worthy of the #1 pick based upon their college careers and stats: Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey. They are the Carson Palmers and Shawne Merrimans of this draft.

I agree that they are worthy of number one consideration. I disagree that they are in that elite class. Dont get me wrong I think they're both fine prospects and both will have fine careers but I dont think that Long will be in the Richard Seymour class as a DE and I dont think that Dorsey will be Wilfork, although I do believe that Dorsey has a chance at becoming an elite NT, I'm not willing to bet on it and my philosophy when it comes to NT is that you pick them up in later rounds. Could I be wrong and both are future hall of famers? Sure, its nothing more than my opinion

To address your second point/question, I'm saying that all of this projection of Chris Long to OLB comes from the guy's head coach, who is trying to sell him (the guy can play DE and OLB? OMG!) and not from any actual figures or even the position the guy played his entire football career. Throw in a bit of JT love and the OLB thing seems like more and more of a great deal. Show me a season where he put up the kind of numbers he did from the OLB position. I'm not buying it until the results are in. Regardless, Long is certainly special enough to warrant consideration for the #1 pick, especially if he can actually make a transition.

I agree that it's not settled that he's the next Mike Vrabel. He may very well be best suited for DE. We'll probably have a better idea after the combine. My problem with Long being drafted is simply I dont think he'll be elite. I think he'll be just under. A good to very good DE but not the elite. The other problem I have with Long being drafted is I think Phillip Merling may actually be better but for some reason Long is ranked ahead of him so I'll defer to popular opinion here and say I must be missing something about Merling's game. If Merling somehow shoots above Long on the draft board I may switch from Ryan to Merling because I think he may be that one special defensive player that I would feel comfortable with spending a number one overall

As for your final point, we'll be playing whatever defensive formation that we have the personnel for as long as necessary. If we've got a killer 4-3 unit, with say Dorsey/Long, Vonnie, Wright and Moses/Roth, then why would we screw with that just because Parcells likes a 3-4? What if we can't get a true old school Traylor at NT? What if we can't get the LB corps together to run a 3-4? Going by Sparano's comments, if the best guys in the draft would be best in a 4-3 then we're drafting them and running a 4-3, not the other way around.

Very true. But let me ask you. After the free agency period is over and we see who we brought on will you have a better idea of which direction we're going in? I know that right now its all speculation but I think the picture should be alot clearer after free agency. And let me ask you, if we pickup a DE or a OLB or a NT in free agency, will you scratch off one of the options from your draft board?

Who are the other GMs? What are their rationales for picking Ryan? Are the two listed the Phillies GM and the other guy whose reasoning is based not upon Ryan being any good, but from a financial standpoint? Because one has his reasoning based only upon the fact that Ryan is the #1 QB, and the other only because of the cost perspective. If there were an article stating that 28% of all 32 GMs picked Ryan as their number 1 overall, then the article would be valid. As is, the sample size is too low, and nothing is known whatsoever about the teams involved. I dare say that based upon a combination of need and availability, San Francisco would be more likely to draft Ryan #1 overall if given the choice than the Colts, Giants, or Patriots. Again, just because a QB is ranked #1 amongst QBs does not mean that he's #1 overall

.You are absolutely correct here. It really doesnt matter that two GMs would pick Ryan. It only matters what one GM decides. I just brought that up to prove that Ryan is a valid consideration along with the players you advocate and will be considered. Whether he's chosen we'll have to see

 

[Rubbin420]

It was Philly, Pitt and the Jets. Then half a quarter against Buffalo and 2 quarters against Cincy.


So you TRULY think that 4 games is enough to grade a QB? How long does the next one get? A quarter and a half? No-one can judge objectively in 3 and a half games. No-one.

And in two of those games the conditions were so bad, Marino would have looked horrible. The impatience is one of the reasons we fail as a team. Develop players and stop hoping to win the lotto. Boomer, is right on this one.

 

[emocomputerjock]

Very true. But let me ask you. After the free agency period is over and we see who we brought on will you have a better idea of which direction we're going in? I know that right now its all speculation but I think the picture should be alot clearer after free agency. And let me ask you, if we pickup a DE or a OLB or a NT in free agency, will you scratch off one of the options from your draft board?

Right now if I had to go off of what cuts have been made first and foremost, I'd say that the OL, MLB (ILB), and DT and DE positions are of critical interest. We're looking to resign Lehan, and more than likely going to pick up a certain safety from Dallas to pair alongside Allen. We're stocked at RB, we've still got some stuff to work around as far as the WR and QB positions are concerned. If I had to make some quick guesswork, I'd say that the first 3 we get would be something like Dorsey/Long at 1, Otah/Collins/Cherilious at 2a and say Bowman at 2b, or maybe they mix it up and go wth a TE here or maybe even CB. Kind of open ended on that last 2nd rounder I know, but I think it depends on what LBs are acquired through FA. Do I think the LBs in FA will affect the selection of either Dorsey/Long for #1? Nope, cause I see us still being a 4-3 team for a good while yet.

 

[Vendigo]

I think a playmaking OLB is the most crucial

I think they are highly overrated. Not in terms of importance - after all, they are the playmaking positions in a 3-4 - but in terms of value. A great nose tackle elevates the defensive play in a way that even the best pass rushers can't. See Cleveland for a point in case. They had quite a decent rush but just couldn't stop the run (giving their pass rushers situations and downs to work with) because Mount Washington isn't what he used to be. Or take a look how Keith Traylor's play made a whole Front 7 look like Pro Bowlers one year ago. It's not as if we suddenly fielded worse pass rushers in 2007. It's that Traylor wasn't playing at a 2006 level creating situations where Taylor and the rest of the bunch were able to shine.

I see where you're coming from, but that school of thought isn't mine.

I come from the school of thought that you get your 3-4 NTs in later rounds

A lot of successful 3-4 teams apparently have a different approach. The Steelers and Pats, to name just two that popped right into my mind, are obviously not afraid to spend a 1st round pick on a nose tackle.

Also I think Solai could really come on this year

I'm not really sure what you're basing this opinion on. Soliai couldn't even crack the gameday roster of a team with major defensive line issues on a regular basis. And when he did play, he got pushed around like a wet bag. Not that I don't want Soliai to come on, but I haven't seen anything suggesting that he will. As of now, I would name him the one truly bad pick of the 2007 draft, but of course it's way too early to say that with any kind of finality. I just don't know where you are drawing your hope/expectations from.

 

[adamprez2003]

Right now if I had to go off of what cuts have been made first and foremost, I'd say that the OL, MLB (ILB), and DT and DE positions are of critical interest. We're looking to resign Lehan, and more than likely going to pick up a certain safety from Dallas to pair alongside Allen. We're stocked at RB, we've still got some stuff to work around as far as the WR and QB positions are concerned. If I had to make some quick guesswork, I'd say that the first 3 we get would be something like Dorsey/Long at 1, Otah/Collins/Cherilious at 2a and say Bowman at 2b, or maybe they mix it up and go wth a TE here or maybe even CB. Kind of open ended on that last 2nd rounder I know, but I think it depends on what LBs are acquired through FA. Do I think the LBs in FA will affect the selection of either Dorsey/Long for #1? Nope, cause I see us still being a 4-3 team for a good while yet.

Whick safety from Dallas? I hadnt heard. I pretty much agree with your needs. I have them in my sig and you're right at this stage figuring out who we get in FA and the draft is a herculian task. I would love it if Otah fell to 32. I would take over Williams any day

 

[adamprez2003]

I think they are highly overrated. Not in terms of importance - after all, they are the playmaking positions in a 3-4 - but in terms of value. A great nose tackle elevates the defensive play in a way that even the best pass rushers can't. See Cleveland for a point in case. They had quite a decent rush but just couldn't stop the run (giving their pass rushers situations and downs to work with) because Mount Washington isn't what he used to be. Or take a look how Keith Traylor's play made a whole Front 7 look like Pro Bowlers one year ago. It's not as if we suddenly fielded worse pass rushers in 2007. It's that Traylor wasn't playing at a 2006 level creating situations where Taylor and the rest of the bunch were able to shine.

I see where you're coming from, but that school of thought isn't mine.





A lot of successful 3-4 teams apparently have a different approach. The Steelers and Pats, to name just two that popped right into my mind, are obviously not afraid to spend a 1st round pick on a nose tackle.





I'm not really sure what you're basing this opinion on. Soliai couldn't even crack the gameday roster of a team with major defensive line issues on a regular basis. And when he did play, he got pushed around like a wet bag. Not that I don't want Soliai to come on, but I haven't seen anything suggesting that he will. As of now, I would name him the one truly bad pick of the 2007 draft, but of course it's way too early to say that with any kind of finality. I just don't know where you are drawing your hope/expectations from.

In a 3-4 you cant compete if you dont have a NT. I'm not arguing against drafting a NT. I want Red Bryant in the 2nd or 3rd myself. And you can definitely spend an overall first on a NT if you dont need the other positions IMO. I just think that due to the more difficult nature of finding good QBs, OLBs and LOTs their value gets inflated not necessarily due to their impact but rather more to the scarcity in being able to find them

As for Solai its probably similar to the Beck argument. Generally I have found that any offensive or defensive lineman that's drafted in the 3rd or later needs one year of weight and strength conditioning and work on technique to be ready to play in the NFL. There are certainly exceptions but its just a general rule of thumb. What I like about Solai is his size, nothing more. But when you couple that with the one year learning curve I give these guys then thats why I have hope for him. Still, like Beck I'm not willing to leave it to chance and want to draft a NT just in case. I just dont want to spend our 1st. I would rather spend our 3rd or 2nd

 

[emocomputerjock]

Whick safety from Dallas? I hadnt heard. I pretty much agree with your needs. I have them in my sig and you're right at this stage figuring out who we get in FA and the draft is a herculian task. I would love it if Otah fell to 32. I would take over Williams any day

We're almost positive to get Keith Davis, who through a combination of a ton of other talent at S that the Cowboys have has had his S work limited lately - but he's better than Bell for sure, and lord knows we can use help at the position after last year.