Good News-Bad News (Dion Jordan vs. Jon Martin)

[where's th'fish]

Anything I know about football is just my gut. Football is mental in so many ways. Getting beat consistently is one of the biggest obstacles in that regard.

My gut says this kid wont take long at all. Its something about the way he carries himself. The look in his eyes. He knows his talent and what he can do.

In fact, I am not even sure he is putting everything he's got into it right now. He passed the smell test for me as a #3 pick in draft. And I completely ignored him as JT who would take 3 years. I changed my mind once I started to focus in after the draft. I am so completely stoked that if Martin does bust at LT, it was still worth it cus we can just turn around and draft our LT next year since most positions are kinda locked up for the future. Lane Johnson vs. Dion Jordan. takin dion all day every day.

This. I'm also a gut guy and, to be frank, I had a badish feeling about Jordan at the time he was drafted. Concerns about him being soft and too much of a finesse guy had many experts smelling a bust. I didn't come here and post "MARK MY WORDS, JORDAN'LL BUST AND YOU'LL ALL RUE THE DAY YOU BELIEVED IN HIM, AND IRELAND, AND THE WHOLE DARNED DOLPHIN ORGANIZATION", but I still was like, uh-oh, I hope I'm wrong. And ck's argument that we should have stood pat made sense, especially considering the high bust rate for 1st rounders in general as it is.

But that has changed radically in recent weeks. Jordan has done all the right things, the fact that he's killing it so far after missing so much offseason work, I don't care who he's going up against, and the fact that he's playing special teams, that' so huge. So many players with his talent fail after arriving at the NFL because after getting paid they lose their motivation. He's already proven to me that's not going to happen. He's hungry, he's talented, and he's showing it. The big trifecta. Usually when a guy is a bust little things start to go wrong very early on, from injuries to things people say to things they say, little red flags pop up. There's been none so far with Jordan, zero.

As for Martin, we all know he's no Jake Long, but come one, I don't care if he's gonna improve slowly, like a poster said, the point is he'll improve. He was bad last year, he won't be as bad this year. I think average is a decent expectation, he may start a bit below that and then get better as the year goes along. But he won't be terrible again because he's got the tools, his body will be closer to what he needs to be, and he'll be more comfortable on the left side. Right now he needs the work and he's getting it, that's great news to me. And with Clabo on the other side, the tackles will be no worse than a wash compared to last year.

 

[ckparrothead]

The thing is we didn't give up some production at LT for nothing, we traded it for Mr. Wallace.

How do you figure on that?

Miami had the money and resources to address both. You're setting up an either-or that didn't exist.

 

[ckparrothead]

CK, your logic is flawed on this one. The evidence that you've provided does not state that the blame falls at Martin's feet. It's inconclusive. What is necessary before making statement number 3 is week 1-11 pressure by Jonathan Martin and week 12-17 pressures by the replacement RT. Only then can you say that the increase in pressures and sacks is the result of Jonathan Martin, and even then you'd have to provide the statistics of the rest of the offensive line. I'm not saying that you're wrong, but you have not provided the appropriate amount of evidence for me to be able to say that you're right. I don't particularly like Martin one way or another, so I'm not arguing for or against him.

Actually no. Your logic is off on this one.

Let me put it this way. Ryan Tannehill through the first 11 games was pressured on about 28% of drop backs. Ryan Tannehill in the final 5 games was pressured about 34% of drop backs.

That's a 6% increase.

Jake Long through the first 11 games allowed pressures on 4.9% of pass plays. Jonathan Martin in the last 5 games allowed pressures on 11.4% of pass plays.

That's a 6.5% increase.

And therefore, you've isolated the reason why Tannehill's pressure increased 6%.

Sorry if you don't see it.

 

[So Be]

How do you figure on that?

Miami had the money and resources to address both. You're setting up an either-or that didn't exist.

No question. Hell, we still have more than enough for a Long contract after everything we did.

 

[beanh8er]

Actually no. Your logic is off on this one.

Let me put it this way. Ryan Tannehill through the first 11 games was pressured on about 28% of drop backs. Ryan Tannehill in the final 5 games was pressured about 34% of drop backs.

That's a 6% increase.

Jake Long through the first 11 games allowed pressures on 4.9% of pass plays. Jonathan Martin in the last 5 games allowed pressures on 11.4% of pass plays.

That's a 6.5% increase.

And therefore, you've isolated the reason why Tannehill's pressure increased 6%.

Sorry if you don't see it.

What you're forgetting is that Jonathan Martin was a part of the line the first 11 weeks. What was his pressure rate weeks 1-11? You're not comparing the correct figures. You need to compare Long + Martin to Martin + Garner. Then subtract Martin 1-11 from Martin 12-17 in order to see how much Martin was at fault in the increase in pressure. Lets just say hypothetically that Martin had the same pressure rate throughout the season. He would not be at fault for the increase pressure.

 

[ckparrothead]

As for Martin, we all know he's no Jake Long, but come one, I don't care if he's gonna improve slowly, like a poster said, the point is he'll improve. He was bad last year, he won't be as bad this year. I think average is a decent expectation, he may start a bit below that and then get better as the year goes along. But he won't be terrible again because he's got the tools, his body will be closer to what he needs to be, and he'll be more comfortable on the left side. Right now he needs the work and he's getting it, that's great news to me. And with Clabo on the other side, the tackles will be no worse than a wash compared to last year.

I think you don't quite have an appreciation for exactly how bad Jon Martin was last year at left tackle.

From 2008 to 2012 there were 394 offensive tackles who took at least 150 pass protection snaps in a season. The average number of snaps they allowed a pressure (hurry, hit, sack) was about 7.3% with a 2.3% standard deviation. Jonathan Martin over his 184 snaps at left tackle allowed pressure on 11.4% of his snaps. That's nearly 2 standard deviations outside the mean.

Put in plainer, less fancy statistical language, his time at left tackle ranked #371 out of 394. That's 94th percentile.

You seem like you want to think that he's starting from "a bit below average" and then he can climb up to average. As of the final 5 games of last year, he was WAY below average. Not just a bit below average. Miles below it. One of the very worst offensive tackles in the last 5 years of football. That's 5 years and 400 guys cycling in and out of starting positions and at left tackle he was among two dozen of the very worst ones.

So you say he'll improve. But improve to what? Improve to being maybe 86th percentile instead of 94th percentile?

Reports of him getting his ass handed to him on the daily in camp by a rookie and a guy who was a poor pass rusher a year ago...doesn't suggest a whole hell of a lot of improvement.

 

[So Be]

Actually no. Your logic is off on this one.

Let me put it this way. Ryan Tannehill through the first 11 games was pressured on about 28% of drop backs. Ryan Tannehill in the final 5 games was pressured about 34% of drop backs.

That's a 6% increase.

Jake Long through the first 11 games allowed pressures on 4.9% of pass plays. Jonathan Martin in the last 5 games allowed pressures on 11.4% of pass plays.

That's a 6.5% increase.

And therefore, you've isolated the reason why Tannehill's pressure increased 6%.

Sorry if you don't see it.

Agree, I thought Garner player very well at RT, after Martin switched.

 

[ckparrothead]

What you're forgetting is that Jonathan Martin was a part of the line the first 11 weeks. What was his pressure rate weeks 1-11? You're not comparing the correct figures. You need to compare Long + Martin to Martin + Garner. Then subtract Martin 1-11 from Martin 12-17 in order to see how much Martin was at fault in the increase in pressure.

I'm not forgetting anything. You're bringing up irrelevant things. We're comparing two left tackles. The numbers I've provided already give you everything you need to do that. Everything you're asking for is simply superfluous.

In the first 11 weeks the LEFT TACKLE allowed pressure on 5% of plays and Ryan Tannehill took pressure on 28% of plays. Therefore, on 23% of plays there was pressure that couldn't be attributed to the LEFT TACKLE.

In the final 5 weeks the LEFT TACKLE allowed pressure on 11% of plays and Ryan Tannehill took pressure on 34% of plays. Therefore, on 23% of plays there was pressure that couldn't be attributed to the LEFT TACKLE.

The pressure ex-LEFT TACKLE stayed the same. The pressure increase coming directly from the LEFT TACKLE was responsible for the increase in pressure felt by the quarterbacks.

Again, sorry if you don't see that, but it's correct.

 

[beanh8er]

I'm not forgetting anything. You're bringing up irrelevant things. We're comparing two left tackles. The numbers I've provided already give you everything you need to do that. Everything you're asking for is simply superfluous.

In the first 11 weeks the LEFT TACKLE allowed pressure on 5% of plays and Ryan Tannehill took pressure on 28% of plays. Therefore, on 23% of plays there was pressure that couldn't be attributed to the LEFT TACKLE.

In the final 5 weeks the LEFT TACKLE allowed pressure on 11% of plays and Ryan Tannehill took pressure on 34% of plays. Therefore, on 23% of plays there was pressure that couldn't be attributed to the LEFT TACKLE.

The pressure ex-LEFT TACKLE stayed the same. The pressure increase coming directly from the LEFT TACKLE was responsible for the increase in pressure felt by the quarterbacks.

Again, sorry if you don't see that, but it's correct.

There we go. You didn't say that in your original post. I'm going to blame my lack of understanding of your previous post on just having woken up. The OP asks for a leap of faith, but you've spelled it out here.

So Jonathan Martin is, for all intents and purposes, less than 50% the LT that Jake Long is, but Nate Garner is exactly the same at RT as Jonathan Martin.

 

[ckparrothead]

Hah. Glad I could clear it up. I'm not too awake myself ya know, lol.

This is a Friday that doesn't feel like it should be a work day.

 

[So Be]

I'm not forgetting anything. You're bringing up irrelevant things. We're comparing two left tackles. The numbers I've provided already give you everything you need to do that. Everything you're asking for is simply superfluous.

In the first 11 weeks the LEFT TACKLE allowed pressure on 5% of plays and Ryan Tannehill took pressure on 28% of plays. Therefore, on 23% of plays there was pressure that couldn't be attributed to the LEFT TACKLE.

In the final 5 weeks the LEFT TACKLE allowed pressure on 11% of plays and Ryan Tannehill took pressure on 34% of plays. Therefore, on 23% of plays there was pressure that couldn't be attributed to the LEFT TACKLE.

The pressure ex-LEFT TACKLE stayed the same. The pressure increase coming directly from the LEFT TACKLE was responsible for the increase in pressure felt by the quarterbacks.

Again, sorry if you don't see that, but it's correct.

To a degree, I see what he is saying in that I also thought that you were going with some team stats, and not just LT. Either way, I still believe you are right.

 

[Roman529]

This is why everyone was scratching their head when we moved up and then passed on Lane Johnson. I love Dion Jordan, BUT if J. Martin cannot play the LT spot than Tannehill could be running for his life.

 

[Austin Tatious]

I suppose Martin is going to be a work in progress and we are going to have to hope he improves as he moves along. I believe he was a train wreck in pre-season last season too.

I doubt they will bail on the kid and they will try to develop him. I expect the Browns and Colts to test Martin big time right off the bat. Expect Dion Sims sitting over there with a back helping out. It's unfortunate because it limits what your offense can do as far as opening up.

Miami must have really thought Long was a major injury risk not to go a little higher to make it worth his while to come back. Once ypu invest the first overall pick in a player, and then lose that asset, and now have a hole at that position, it's frustrating.

I agree on the Dion Jordan optimism though. That's a major plus.

 

[defiant]

Ireland admitted he had no faith in Martin when he flirted with the Albert trade.

 

[JTC111]

You guys are a bunch of girls.

What if Martin is actually great, and the team wants everyone to think he sucks?

I have no words...