Have the Dolphin once again traded back and missed getting a special player?

[BigNastyFish]

I know what you mean regarding Herbert. He won all the sucker categories last season but it remains to be seen if he can raise his alpha level to the point he dictates victories instead of crying on the sideline in disbelief that good things are actually happening to him. The Ryan Tannehill comparison is very apt. Tannehill didn't expect to win big games. He was shocked when it actually happened, dating to college. That's the type of personality you have to avoid at that position. It is a natural regulator. I thought Justin Herbert crying after the Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin was a huge red flag in that regard and nothing from his rookie season deflected from it.

Comebacks are for suckers, as I've always emphasized. Bet games for a living and that aspect stands out in a hurry. Justin Herbert last season blew one close game after another early in the season to forge a won/loss record that wasn't close to what it should have been given the overall caliber of that team including so many good defensive stats. Then he made the familiar sucker comeback late season to win a string of games once none of them mattered anymore. No matter what his physical skills look like, I'll be very surprised if Justin Herbert becomes the type of quarterback who monopolizes victories. He played one pivotal game at Oregon with a final four berth on the line. And it was one of his most pathetic efforts ever, the loss at Arizona State as 14 point favorite. And even that game followed the typical pattern for a player like that. Herbert made so many mistakes his team was buried in the middle of the fourth quarter. Then he relaxed once he understood the outcome was inevitable and padded his stats while making the final score respectable.

The question with Tua is whether his physical capabilities are up to league requirement. If so, then there's no question he would have no problem ruthlessly dictating the league. I still think the Dolphins made a mistake in trading down from 3. A second swing at an elite quarterback prospect is worth exponentially more than one swing at a quarterback plus a wide receiver and a future first round pick. With Justin Fields, for example, there is likewise no question that he has the mental makeup to fully anticipate one victory after another, no matter the opponent or situation. The question with Fields is what happens on those key intermediate throws? He can make all the big ones. The league doesn't know how Justin Fields will fare on 3rd and 10 when he has to quickly decipher the window and throw before it's necessarily open.

Interesting take. It seems you're defining a "choker" vs. a "gamer?" Mental tuffness and playing to WIN with confidence vs. playing scared and not really believing in yourself. In terms of that dynamic being critical @QB (in the positive sense) I 100% agree. Your take reminds me a tad of handicapping a horse race -- of which I know very little about tho I've been shown some things and told some things by folks that did it professionally. Anyway not to sidetrack but the analysis of the mental side is pretty rare around here and you are 100% correct --- it's a huge factor.

Guys that fold under pressure rarely completely solve that problem. As far as Herbert -- you may be correct about him and time will definitely tell. Apparently this deal of playing QB in the NFL is vastly more difficult than we really understand. And for sure --- a lot of it is in the head.

Reminds me again why Marino was so transcendent at his best ----- dude was a ruthless tuff competitor and had the physical skills to destroy a defense. I'm sure the fact he never played on a championship team really burns him inside and in so many ways undercuts his absolute greatness. But it's impossible to win championships in the NFL when the supporting cast is lacking and incomplete.

 

[BlueFin]

Or maybe your opinion of Herbert will change if he regresses? (I like the kid and hope he continues to do well though)

has your opinion of drew lock changed at all, blue?

I never said we should spend 5th overall on Drew Lock...I simply said that on the team we had it was worth the 2nd round pick gamble Denver took. Much like the Josh Rosen 2nd round gamble we took. Herbert was on a different level. To answer your question...Lock has been mediocre so far....We’ll see if the lightbulb goes on in year 3. He has the talent if he figures out the mental part of the game. I have no expectation that the NFL rookie of the year will regress!

Or maybe your opinion of Herbert will change if he regresses? (I like the kid and hope he continues to do well though)

has your opinion of drew lock changed at all, blue?

i

 

[Travis34]

I never said we should spend 5th overall on Drew Lock...I simply said that on the team we had it was worth the 2nd round pick gamble Denver took. Much like the Josh Rosen 2nd round gamble we took. Herbert was on a different level. To answer your question...Lock has been mediocre so far....We’ll see if the lightbulb goes on in year 3. He has the talent if he figures out the mental part of the game. I have no expectation that the NFL rookie of the year will regress!

i

Dude you were talking about Drew Lock as a first round pick that year, and then he (unsurprisingly) fell to the 2nd round. And all of that few game sample size you were calling him a franchise qb.

the point of my trying to bring this up is simple- give things time. Lock ain’t it. Maybe Herbert comes back down to earth, or becomes a Philip Rivers who can never win when it matters, and Tua can become Steve young lite, or so we hope.

 

[Geordie]

I know what you mean regarding Herbert. He won all the sucker categories last season but it remains to be seen if he can raise his alpha level to the point he dictates victories instead of crying on the sideline in disbelief that good things are actually happening to him. The Ryan Tannehill comparison is very apt. Tannehill didn't expect to win big games. He was shocked when it actually happened, dating to college. That's the type of personality you have to avoid at that position. It is a natural regulator. I thought Justin Herbert crying after the Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin was a huge red flag in that regard and nothing from his rookie season deflected from it.

Comebacks are for suckers, as I've always emphasized. Bet games for a living and that aspect stands out in a hurry. Justin Herbert last season blew one close game after another early in the season to forge a won/loss record that wasn't close to what it should have been given the overall caliber of that team including so many good defensive stats. Then he made the familiar sucker comeback late season to win a string of games once none of them mattered anymore. No matter what his physical skills look like, I'll be very surprised if Justin Herbert becomes the type of quarterback who monopolizes victories. He played one pivotal game at Oregon with a final four berth on the line. And it was one of his most pathetic efforts ever, the loss at Arizona State as 14 point favorite. And even that game followed the typical pattern for a player like that. Herbert made so many mistakes his team was buried in the middle of the fourth quarter. Then he relaxed once he understood the outcome was inevitable and padded his stats while making the final score respectable.

The question with Tua is whether his physical capabilities are up to league requirement. If so, then there's no question he would have no problem ruthlessly dictating the league. I still think the Dolphins made a mistake in trading down from 3. A second swing at an elite quarterback prospect is worth exponentially more than one swing at a quarterback plus a wide receiver and a future first round pick. With Justin Fields, for example, there is likewise no question that he has the mental makeup to fully anticipate one victory after another, no matter the opponent or situation. The question with Fields is what happens on those key intermediate throws? He can make all the big ones. The league doesn't know how Justin Fields will fare on 3rd and 10 when he has to quickly decipher the window and throw before it's necessarily open.

You were doing so well until that line in the last paragraph !

 

[BlueFin]

Dude you were talking about Drew Lock as a first round pick that year, and then he (unsurprisingly) fell to the 2nd round. And all of that few game sample size you were calling him a franchise qb.

the point of my trying to bring this up is simple- give things time. Lock ain’t it. Maybe Herbert comes back down to earth, or becomes a Philip Rivers who can never win when it matters, and Tua can become Steve young lite, or so we hope.

Again...I would never have advocated for Lock as the 5th pick in the draft...big difference!

I hope Tua develops....I’m confident the rookie of the year will progress with more offensive talent around him.

 

[Travis34]

Again...I would never have advocated for Lock as the 5th pick in the draft...big difference!

I hope Tua develops....I’m confident the rookie of the year will progress with more offensive talent around him.

Dude you wanted to draft Lock in the first round that year.... I totally recall it because you were like his lone staunch supporter lol

So yeah, not the 5th pick, but the 13th

 

[The Goat]

You should refrain from using childish names in discourse...

I never said anything about any of those players being stupid picks...I even said Chase would not disappoint me.

Smith and Waddle are trade down players in my opinion...I would take Sewell or Parsons over either one.

I wasn't referencing you. Promise.

If I ever have an issue with something specific a poster says, I'll always quote and/or address the poster directly.

 

[The Goat]

Dude you were talking about Drew Lock as a first round pick that year, and then he (unsurprisingly) fell to the 2nd round. And all of that few game sample size you were calling him a franchise qb.

the point of my trying to bring this up is simple- give things time. Lock ain’t it. Maybe Herbert comes back down to earth, or becomes a Philip Rivers who can never win when it matters, and Tua can become Steve young lite, or so we hope.

QB is the most difficult position to predict. Hell, I thought John Beck had sneaky upside way back in the day.

 

[BlueFin]

QB is the most difficult position to predict. Hell, I thought John Beck had sneaky upside way back in the day.

There an educated gamble...Lock has all the physical tools...he still has a starting job after 2 years. Drew Brees put up Lock type numbers for 3 years before he figured it out.

 

[cltchperf]

I am not suggesting Jamar Chase, Devonta Smith or Jalen Waddle will not be successful in the NFL, I’m just stating that Kyle Pitts is a far more rare prospect unicorn.

True, but great is great. I want pitts too, but it wouldn't look like a waste of a move if miami gets chase or pitts and either wr ends up being great. Pitts is rare, but we've seen freak Tight ends be busts before just like wrs, but tightends picked lower have more often been great than ones in top 10. Vernon davis ended up being good, but imo, I'm still not sure he was great or up to top ten caliber. Even though vernon davis had more rare traits than Marvin Harrison, I'd pick harrison anyday of the week over vernon davis and same for julio jones. I'm not saying these guys will be great, but chase and devonta are talented enough that if they play to their talent they could be great like such wrs as their size and skills, if were great would be more comparable to those guys.

 

[BlueFin]

True, but great is great. I want pitts too, but it wouldn't look like a waste of a move if miami gets chase or pitts and either wr ends up being great. Pitts is rare, but we've seen freak Tight ends be busts before just like wrs, but tightends picked lower have more often been great than ones in top 10. Vernon davis ended up being good, but imo, I'm still not sure he was great or up to top ten caliber. Even though vernon davis had more rare traits than Marvin Harrison, I'd pick harrison anyday of the week over vernon davis and same for julio jones. I'm not saying these guys will be great, but chase and devonta are talented enough that if they play to their talent they could be great like such wrs as their size and skills, if were great would be more comparable to those guys.

Pitts is not really a tight end...he’s a Megatron receiver.

People get to caught up in trying to pigeon hole him as “just a tight end”....not true or reality.

 

[KingHydra]

There are too many special players for us to "miss out".

 

[cltchperf]

Pitts is not really a tight end...he’s a Megatron receiver.

People get to caught up in trying to pigeon hole him as “just a tight end”....not true or reality.

How good is his route running? Like literally where he could be a very good WR if kept there a lot? Other good tightends will be put there but for him to be seen as so versatile suggests to me that his quickness and route running is another level compared to other tight ends. I mean we all know how great Shannon Sharpe was. He was like that hybrid tight end/WR before tightends became a big thing and one of the best tightends of all time imo. You think he could be the closest thing to Shannon Sharpe?

 

[ChitownPhins28]

After today's reading and analysis, I am starting to feel that if Pitts is gone, the three WRs there arent better Enough vs guys we could get at 18 or 36 and that an elite talent like Sewell or Parsons makes more sense. You just Cant find these guys in FA. You can buy a good WR without destroying your cap. We damaged our cap on Erick Flowers


That's gotta factor into the draft process, IMO.

 

[BlueFin]

How good is his route running? Like literally where he could be a very good WR if kept there a lot? Other good tightends will be put there but for him to be seen as so versatile suggests to me that his quickness and route running is another level compared to other tight ends. I mean we all know how great Shannon Sharpe was. He was like that hybrid tight end/WR before tightends became a big thing and one of the best tightends of all time imo. You think he could be the closest thing to Shannon Sharpe?

Yes...he has the speed and athleticism to be a 1” taller...10 pound heavier...larger wingspan wideout. But the effective way to use him is moving him around ...nightmares for defenses!