HEY, GMs...Is Wale worth 2 - 2nds?

[Disnardo]

Originally posted by Danny
Just who's gonna replace Ogun and please, don't tell me is Bowens cos that's a joke.

Ozzy rules!!

Before Ogun, the question was, who was going to replace Mixon and Brommel?

s**t happens, life goes on, and we have learned that they were replaced by Ogun...

I want them to use what ever means to keep Ogun also, but not if it's going to cost us to loose out on aquiring players that can produce for us and get us into the POs...

So until JT falters at his position, he will be the highest payed DE in our squad...

 

[DolphinzD]

Originally posted by Dol-Fan Dupree


I think we were watching different games. Jason Taylor is still a man compared to the boy OGUN

Thank you!! And think about how many years Taylor has been posting these totals. It's rather enlightening to see the sack totals opposite Taylor posted over the years. I'm not saying O-Gun isn't great, but others have gotten the job done. I just hope this situation works out well for the Dolphins.

 

[Dol-Fan Dupree]

I would say at least 1/3 if not MORE of Ogun's sacks was mop up duty for Jason Taylor

 

[Dbergan]

Just calling it like I see it. I thought JT was OK this year...but thats about it. OGUN was incredible in the games that I saw. In fact, I actually thought that JT played "average" at best when I followed closely.

Having said that, I only watched about half the games so it is very possible that I missed the games where JT dominated like he usually does.

Also, when you look at the numbers opposite JT over the years I agree that the argument could be made that any decent DT would have a monster year on the other side. But.....we KNOW what we have w/ OGUN and I'm not yet convinced that he would actually hold out. Drafts are like playing cards..ya win some and ya lose some. We have a winning hand right now..I say we keep it.

If, however, the threat of holding out is serious...then most of you who disagree w/ me are correct.

 

[ckparrothead]

I like this kinda speculation. Fun.

Anyway if we did that I would still try and go for Andrews in the first round at #20. If he does not fall I would go Rivers (yes I know he wont be there yes I know we have Feeley), Udeze, Wilfork, Will Smith, Mike Williams, Jon Vilma, Randy Starks, then Dunta Robinson. If none of those are there I try and trade down.

With the 2nd rounders or late 1st if we trade down I would have Carey, Grove, Smiley, Gamble, Evans, Jenkins, Odom, Babin, Losman (yes, Losman in round 2 = good value without all the controversy), Dockett, Boulware, Sean Jones, Matt Ware, Igor Olshansky, Devery Henderson, Donnell Washington, Marquise Hill, and Marcus Tubbs tracked.

If I am wishful thinking then we come away with the following...

Round 1: Shawn Andrews
Round 2: Antwan Odom
Round 2: Jake Grove
Round 3: Keary Colbert

But that of course is wishful thinking. Everything would have to really fall in place for that. What likely would have to happen for that to happen is the Chargers trade with the Giants to #4 and collect their 2nd rounder, then we trade Ogun to the Chargers for their 2 second rounders plus a better spot in the 3rd round. I would also be happy with...

Round 1: Phil Rivers
Round 2: Lee Evans
Round 2: Jason Babin
Round 3: Nat Dorsey

Round 1: Randy Starks
Round 2: JP Losman
Round 2: Justin Smiley
Round 3: Marquise Hill (remember, he's got bipolar disorder, i expect a dramatic fall for him)

Common thread in all my preferences is if we trade Ogunleye we HAVE to use one of the first day picks on a DE. Jay Williams and David Bowens will not cut it. Bowens is the Mark Dixon of the DL, and Jay Williams isn't a quality LDE. And forget Grigsby he's an undrafted free agent and unlike Ogunleye he was never considered a top prospect. There's a reason he struggles to make NFL rosters. Also a common thread is we need at least one OL and I would personally prefer it to be a tackle...my preferences are Andrews, Carey, and my sleeper is Dorsey. If not, then Grove or Smiley.

 

[ckparrothead]

Strike Carey. I like either Andrews or Dorsey at OT.

 

[ckparrothead]

As far as replacing Ogun, I submit evidence to my belief that Miami can manufacture the RDE at will (sack totals):

1999 - 12.5 - T. Armstrong 7.5, L. Bromell 5.0
2000 - 21.0 - T. Armstrong 16.5, K. Mixon 2.5, L. Bromell 2.0
2001 - 8.5 - L. Bromell 6.5 sacks, K. Mixon 2.0
2002 - 9.5 - A. Ogunleye 9.5 sacks
2003 - 15.0 - A. Ogunleye 15.0 sacks

Granted, not EVERY sack came from RDE. But, Taylor was the starting LDE those years. But, we have managed to generate 10+ sacks opposite of Taylor nearly every year. We DO manufacture RDE as a luxury of having Taylor.
RDE is easier to fill than O-Line. We need to focus more on what Wale's value can bring us, not how much we should pay him, IMO.

"But, I'm only one man!"

You have the right idea but your analysis is incomplete. If you check out the sack totals of all DEs on our roster from 1998 through 2003 you'll see that if you add all of the sacks of the guys other than Jason Taylor it consistently equals between 21 and 22 sacks each year. Two years are the exception...2001 we had a poor sack count all the way around (Taylor included) and I believe all our DEs combined for like 13 or 14 sacks. In 2000 with Armstrong having 16.5 sacks all DEs combined for something like 23 sacks or better.

But basically its very consistent, I've done this analysis before it goes like 21.5 sacks, 21.0 sacks, 23.0 sacks, 13.5 sacks, 21.5 sacks, 22.5 sacks...or something along those lines. I tracked it going back to 1998 because that was the first year Taylor became a fulltime RDE...from that year on he never came out of the game on just about any downs...always playing the RDE spot no matter the down. This is also good justification for tracking 3 or 4 DEs opposite Taylor instead of just 1 or 2.

You'll also notice (or at least you would have if you got to look at the game logs back during the 1999 and 2000 seasons like I have) that both Ogunleye's and Trace Armstrong's sacks tend to come in bunches. During Trace's pro bowl year he'd go 3 games without a sack then get 3 of them in the next game...meanwhile Taylor was steady on at about a sack a game. The same can be said for Ogunleye...in 2002, he never got a single sack in any game that Taylor failed to register a sack in, and Ogun also tended to get them in bunches. This year, he also tended to get them in bunches. 11 of his sacks came in 5 of his games. If you did a similar top 5 games for Taylor that total would be 9 sacks...and I notice that Taylor's sacks came in clumps this year a lot more than normal, with his 3 sack day against Buffalo.

I'm not going to tell you what conclusions you can draw from those facts, you guys can do that on your own.

 

[ckparrothead]

In 2001, Taylor had a bad year, had sacks in 9 of 16 games...blanked 7 times. In 2002 Taylor got blanked in only 4 games, and in 2003 he got blanked 5 games.

Over that time period in 2002 Ogunleye got blanked in 8 games with having 9.5 sacks, and in 2003 he got blanked 7 games despite his having 15.5 sacks.

In 2000 Trace had 6 blanks despite having 16.5 sacks for the year. 10 of his sacks came in 4 games.

I just dont feel that comfortable thinking Ogunleye is the hottest young DE in the league when he displays such similar characteristics to Trace Armstrong...who was good, but not worth that much money.

 

[NathanHunt]

Thanks for adding depth to my discussion ckparrothead. (I've also misquoted the position, calling JT a LDE). My main argument focuses on the fact that Taylor's presence creates huge stats for his running mate. And, as JT has honed his run stopping and double team pass rush skills, he is getting more and more attention (double teams and additional chip blocks by RBs and WRs). I mean, with 3 men on JT, is there any reason Wale shouldn't get to the QB?
Most people compare stats and forget to factor JTs double team %. It is hard to deny Ogun's totals or Armstrong's. But, would anyone dare guess the double team % per game of JT. Compare that to Ogun and Armstrong.
All things equal, if we gave JT the same number of 1-on-1 snaps vs. Ogun, I think JT wins hands down. Most tend to forget that Ogun has yet to perfect or even develop his double team skills. JT has had to live with it nearly his entire career.

And now that you mention it, I have noticed the "blanks" in many of our games. I think every now and then you have to give credit to great OTs and Offensive Coordinators who can neutralize JT and the DLine. You can't win every match up. Which, to me, brings up the subject of blitzing.... a word that escapes our philosophy. HINT HINT
I would say a few more WELL EXECUTED blitzes would help break up some of those "blanks". Another day, another topic.

Back on topic, ck.. let me volley another serve to you....

If you could trade Wale AND our #20 to catapult into #3 (Arizona) OR Top 5....

1) would you?
2) who would you pick?

 

[DOLFANMIKE]

Originally posted by NathanHunt
My main argument focuses on the fact that Taylor's presence creates huge stats for his running mate. And, as JT has honed his run stopping and double team pass rush skills, he is getting more and more attention (double teams and additional chip blocks by RBs and WRs). I mean, with 3 men on JT, is there any reason Wale shouldn't get to the QB?
Most people compare stats and forget to factor JTs double team %. It is hard to deny Ogun's totals or Armstrong's. But, would anyone dare guess the double team % per game of JT. Compare that to Ogun and Armstrong.
All things equal, if we gave JT the same number of 1-on-1 snaps vs. Ogun, I think JT wins hands down. Most tend to forget that Ogun has yet to perfect or even develop his double team skills. JT has had to live with it nearly his entire career.

Thats right. History has proven that other DE's benefit from playing opposite JT. OGUN has just done the best job of it so far.

There are many, many ways to slide a blocking scheme over to a problem DE. OGUN benefitted from seeing teams focus on JT each of the past two seasons. Anyone that understands OL blocking schemes can see it on 3 of 4 plays in most games. Teams that had great LT's were the ones that tended not to worry about JT as much, but he saw more than his share of special attention.

 

[rafael]

You could spin it either way. The one year JT didn't have a big producing sack guy on the other side, JT had fewer sacks. My conclusion is that both guys benefit. And when I factor in the rule interpretaion change regarding DB play, I'd rather keep Ogun.

I don't agree with the "he's already gone" theory. I haven't heard anything other than Drew R. threaten a holdout. This is an empty threat at best. It would hurt both Ogun and Drew in the short and long run. And it's not as simple as the money isn't there. A couple of players have been approached about restructures and Wanny even said he thought Ogun could be signed and Chambers extended after the restructures are completed.

 

[Dol-Fan Dupree]

I would rather keep OGUN, however it is a reality situation. If he wants too much money, Miami can't afford to keep OGUN. No one thinks this guy is a bum, they just think he is replaceable.

Plus if OGUN really was as good as people here like to think, there would be a few teams willing to give their first round pick for him. Best I heard so far, was the Bears who wanted to give up a 2nd.

 

[DOLFANMIKE]

Originally posted by rafael
I don't agree with the "he's already gone" theory. I haven't heard anything other than Drew R. threaten a holdout. This is an empty threat at best. It would hurt both Ogun and Drew in the short and long run. And it's not as simple as the money isn't there. A couple of players have been approached about restructures and Wanny even said he thought Ogun could be signed and Chambers extended after the restructures are completed.

How are we going to sign our draft picks, and give OGUN the money he wants? I don't think we can offer him anywhere close to what he's asking. I hope we can, but I don't see it. If we had an opportunity to pick up two early 2nd rounders for him, I'd like to see us move on it.

I suppose our best hope is the scenerio with restructures that Wanny mentioned, but OGUN isnt asking for easy money. He wants to be paid. He's coming off 2 very good seasons and a Pro Bowl.

We are screwed if we don't sign OGUN and he sits until the last 6 weeks.

 

[Nicky Napoleon]

I think it would take more than Ogun to get the two seconds. No team was willing to give up a first so why would the Chargers give up the 3rd and 4th picks in round two. BUT if it were to happen I would be all over it. Since we are living in fantasy land......
20- Andrews (moves to RG)
35- (Trade down to middle of round 2 getting a 3rd) Jason Babin
36- (Trade down to middle of round 2 getting a 3rd) Michael Boulware
3a- Derrick Williams WR Clemson
3b- Chad Lavalais DT LSU
87- Demorrio Williams LB Nebraska

Now in my fantasy land this is exactly how I want things to go. This fills all needs with the first day picks. Leaving the second day to take chances and add depth.

 

[LarryFinFan]

We are all practically saying the same thing. Wale is a very good DE, not in the Kearse, JT league, but still very good who fits our system well. As far as a deal goes, it would have to be for this year's draft, IMO. If we were offered the 2 upper 2nd round choices, I don't think RS would hesitate much....But then the other team has to sign Ogun to a long term deal...or he would have to sign the tender and then the other team could work out a deal with him, but that type of trade, because of working out a deal with Ogun, works against anything like this happening while were on the clock. (unless it is worked out in advance of the draft, and Ogun is in on it so the negotiations are being worked on).