39wildman
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If Miami Is Bad Enough To Get The First Overall Pick In The 2020 Draft...
- Thread starter SCLSU Mud Dogs
- Start date
Nevermind that using the last 5 drafts is logically the worst sample you could use, of the QBs on that list that are elite bound, none of them had even close to bad 1st season as Rosen did. And it doesnt even matter if you put that on the team around him as an argument, because he wont have a much better one in his 2nd season. What's most likely to happen here is that Rosen will either be a backup to a rookie 1st round pick or on his 3rd team for his 3rd year in the league next season. At this point I dont see how you can say 33% with a straight face...
I’ve never said 33%. Not once.
My point is...and has been, the entire time...that people are using arbitrary and select measures to basically pull “percentage to succeed” figures out of their rectums. I’m as guilty as anyone; I said at one point that I thought it was a coin flip. And Rosen absolutely looked like hammered dog crap at times last year. But so did Darnold and Allen.
BUT.
New coach. New team. New line. One year of NFL experience. New system. Veteran QB in the locker room. All of these are variables that are essentially UNKNOWN factors that will directly impact how Josh Rosen will perform. Additionally, nobody even qualifies what they consider “success” to be when making their point.
And people are taking ALL OF THIS into consideration and essentially saying, “Nope. Sorry. That figure of 33% chance of success is WAY too high.”
That, friend, is hubris of the first order. There ain’t a person on God’s green Earth that can accurately put a percentage number on whether or not Josh Rosen can hit a goal THAT HASN’T EVEN BEEN PROPERLY DEFINED.
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Why take a QB in 2020 when there is a better QB coming out in 2021and it's not even close, even I can see that and I'm no talent evaluator.
The idea of tanking just doesn't sit well with me, yeah I'll like the winning in 3 years but I will never view the Dolphins the same way.
Something new for us, guess they are really tired of losing but It reeks of something dirty, is that why we brought in these New England coaches...
The idea of tanking just doesn't sit well with me, yeah I'll like the winning in 3 years but I will never view the Dolphins the same way.
Something new for us, guess they are really tired of losing but It reeks of something dirty, is that why we brought in these New England coaches...
I am of the opinion that the Fins need to keep taking shots at QB until they find one. If they pass on Tua, Fromm, Love, Herbert, etc. in 2020 and one of them turns out to be a stud, then people need to lose their jobs.
Regarding the original discussion, I think there is a difference between “tanking” and “losing on purpose.”
This is coming from a Sixers fan (and it’s much easier to do in the NBA than the NFL). Much of it is semantics with the term. If you strip a team of talent and trade players for cash and future assets, you’re not asking a coach or players to lose games on purpose. You’re simply making it much, much more difficult to win.
That appears to be what the Dolphins are doing. However, there’s an outside chance that there are still some very talented pieces on the roster, as well as players who could be part of a winning team. Additionally, Flores APPEARS to be stressing fundamentals to the team, which is a good sign to me.
Will that result in success? Your guess is as good as mine, but there’s a pretty darned good chance this team will be set up well going in to 2020.
This is coming from a Sixers fan (and it’s much easier to do in the NBA than the NFL). Much of it is semantics with the term. If you strip a team of talent and trade players for cash and future assets, you’re not asking a coach or players to lose games on purpose. You’re simply making it much, much more difficult to win.
That appears to be what the Dolphins are doing. However, there’s an outside chance that there are still some very talented pieces on the roster, as well as players who could be part of a winning team. Additionally, Flores APPEARS to be stressing fundamentals to the team, which is a good sign to me.
Will that result in success? Your guess is as good as mine, but there’s a pretty darned good chance this team will be set up well going in to 2020.
raving
Active Roster
I’m all for the Dolphins being one of the worst teams this year.
And go out and draft and trade and buy talent...
I’m ALL for it
And go out and draft and trade and buy talent...
I’m ALL for it
ckparrothead
Premium Member
You have been dishonestly duped. That tweet was not mine. And I stated unequivocally that I disagree with it. Alfredo has said several times that he was being facetious, anyway.
I don't appreciate the dishonesty involved in trying to portray that tweet as being mine or symbolic of what I think. I'll leave it at that.
Rowdy1972
Active Roster
Lets just say there is a better chance that hes a backup next year or hes off this team completely come 2020 than him becoming a starter for the next 5 years here. Hell I got a feeling fitzpatrick beats him out.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
Listen, I see what you're saying, but you also have to recognize that what you are doing is using the the uncertainty that is inherent to ANYTHING predictive in order to abdicate the responsibility of engaging in sound predictive analysis.
And if that were the case in the first place, then Miami should never have traded the pick for Josh Rosen, because they would have found it impossible to build a case based on predictive analysis to suggest that they should give up a premium asset. Any theory proposed would have seen some guy in the room telling them, "You don't KNOW that" and accusing them of hubris for even postulating it. And therefore the trade never gets off the ground.
lynx
Club Member
Agree with this, and we could always do what Arizona did this year and take a QB anyway even if we were already developing one
Of course. It’s all educated guessing. Railing against that because of a projected rate of failure is a slippery slope that leads to never taking a QB in the first round.
And that’s crazy.
The solution (in my opinion) isn’t taking fewer chances because “we don’t know that.” It’s taking more. Josh Rosen might fall flat on his face like you think he will. And I appreciate and respect the effort you put into your analysis. But he might not.
It’s not that I think you specifically are incapable of judging whether or not Josh Rosen has closer to a 33% or 5% chance of success, all things considered. It’s that I don’t think ANYONE is capable of that.
ckparrothead
Premium Member
So then we should trade a 1st round pick for Kyle Allen...because nobody can reliably make the case against it?
Of course not. AGAIN, that isn’t my point.
My point is that if someone tries to convince me that Kyle Allen has a 5% chance of success versus a 33% chance...and they haven’t even defined what success is, I’m going to raise an eyebrow and go, “Wait a minute....”
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I don't think that you're quite understanding that differentiating between whether an investment has a 5% chance of success versus a 33% chance of success IS THE FUNDAMENTAL FOUNDATION for any case about whether to execute the trade or not.