I’ve never said 33%. Not once.
My point is...and has been, the entire time...that people are using arbitrary and select measures to basically pull “percentage to succeed” figures out of their rectums. I’m as guilty as anyone; I said at one point that I thought it was a coin flip. And Rosen absolutely looked like hammered dog crap at times last year. But so did Darnold and Allen.
BUT.
New coach. New team. New line. One year of NFL experience. New system. Veteran QB in the locker room. All of these are variables that are essentially UNKNOWN factors that will directly impact how Josh Rosen will perform. Additionally, nobody even qualifies what they consider “success” to be when making their point.
And people are taking ALL OF THIS into consideration and essentially saying, “Nope. Sorry. That figure of 33% chance of success is WAY too high.”
That, friend, is hubris of the first order. There ain’t a person on God’s green Earth that can accurately put a percentage number on whether or not Josh Rosen can hit a goal THAT HASN’T EVEN BEEN PROPERLY DEFINED.