If The Fins Are Going To "tank"...then Why Not *really* Tank?

[The Goat]

Here's what I'm having trouble with in my head...the following two things are true in my head - please feel free to mention any of these things I am getting wrong:

1) The Miami Dolphins are, by most reports, planning a tear down and rebuild, with an eye on getting a QB for the future.

2) The new HC has been given a five-year contract, meaning that the INTENT is to give him a five-year window in which to accomplish #1 and make the franchise one that can compete for a championship.

Now - here are two opinions of mine. Agree with them or not, but I think the second one is the more important.

1) I do not believe that Tua is a huge upgrade over Murray. I just don't. So if the goal is to get the QB of the future in the next two years, I don't see mortgaging future picks for Tua as a wise decision, particularly if Murray is available at 13 in 2019. If the pro-Murray crowd is correct, great. If they're wrong, then they haven't exhausted picks in 2019 and 2020 to otherwise help the rebuild.

This isn't an intent to spark a Murray vs. Tua debate - I'm sure plenty of that will happen as the draft gets closer. Because MUCH of this debate is generally made moot by:

2) I believe the brass ring of the QB search is Taylor Lawrence. I think he's going to be better than Murray OR Tua. If you disagree with me here, there's not a whole not of point debating this premise, then, because we'll just have to agree to disagree. I haven't seen a whole lot of flaws in the kid...he misses a few reads, but that's about it, and that's when I'm specifically looking for flaws. In my opinion, he's the best prospect since Luck.

So if the Dolphins are really going to tear it down and build for the future, are you willing to wait one more year to get the best QB? I know I am...if you're really gonna tear it down, trade any possible asset for future picks, draft on both lines for the next two drafts, and do whatever it takes to get Lawrence. Get it right this time.

Thoughts?

 

[DolfanISS]

Nobody has the patience for this plan. I actually agree with you on Lawrence but we will definitely have posters falling apart if we don't get Murray unless he goes like #1 overall. They will come up with any hair brain trade up possibility and act not only as if we should have done it but that we also could have done it 100%. Nature of finheaven.

The biggest issue is as many on here will consider it very easy it's tough to 0-16/3-13 suck while trying to rebuild your program at the same time. Coaches and players will be gunning to win and in this league if you play disciplined ball you can. That's why I agree we need the 2 pronged approach.

1. The cheaper route if we happen to suck really bad. I think this would take the wheels falling off injury wise to an already below average roster. I don't think it's that easy.
2. Expensive route, stockpile assets and be able to trade up if option 1 fails.

If all our eggs are in tanking this plan is GOING TO FAIL.

 

[NyPhan23]

Or just sign tank

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Nobody has the patience for this plan. I actually agree with you on Lawrence but we will definitely have posters falling apart if we don't get Murray unless he goes like #1 overall. They will come up with any hair brain trade up possibility and act not only as if we should have done it but that we also could have done it 100%. Nature of finheaven.

The biggest issue is as many on here will consider it very easy it's tough to 0-16/3-13 suck while trying to rebuild your program at the same time. Coaches and players will be gunning to win and in this league if you play disciplined ball you can. That's why I agree we need the 2 pronged approach.

1. The cheaper route if we happen to suck really bad. I think this would take the wheels falling off injury wise to an already below average roster. I don't think it's that easy.
2. Expensive route, stockpile assets and be able to trade up if option 1 fails.

If all our eggs are in tanking this plan is GOING TO FAIL.

Ding!! Ding!! First, I DON'T think Miami plans on tanking . . . at least not in the pure sense of the term. And I don't think Miami will cut everyone except 'core' players, unless, core players means 20-25.

And, in spite of those who think otherwise, Miami has talent. Not playoff talent, but talent. So, some talent, we know they're not going to tank in the draft, so maybe 1-2 starters (we don't know if it's QB, DT, CB, . . .) a better OC/DC (not difficult), and, likely, real game plans and adjustments. I'm not predicting 12-4, but winning 6 wouldn't surprise me. I have NO idea if a QB is this year or next and I have no idea who will be cut/released. This means the expectation of stashing draft picks and cap is uncertain at best. we are in that time of year when all fans can do is wait for some hints/evidence. I'm CERTAIN, whatever strategy Flores uses will be 'the wrong' one for a number of people here.

 

[lynx]

Ding!! Ding!! First, I DON'T think Miami plans on tanking . . . at least not in the pure sense of the term. And I don't think Miami will cut everyone except 'core' players, unless, core players means 20-25.

And, in spite of those who think otherwise, Miami has talent. Not playoff talent, but talent. So, some talent, we know they're not going to tank in the draft, so maybe 1-2 starters (we don't know if it's QB, DT, CB, . . .) a better OC/DC (not difficult), and, likely, real game plans and adjustments. I'm not predicting 12-4, but winning 6 wouldn't surprise me. I have NO idea if a QB is this year or next and I have no idea who will be cut/released. This means the expectation of stashing draft picks and cap is uncertain at best. we are in that time of year when all fans can do is wait for some hints/evidence. I'm CERTAIN, whatever strategy Flores uses will be 'the wrong' one for a number of people here.

I think now that Burke is gone, the defense will tighten up and be much better, so I agree it will be difficult to tank completely. The offense will NOT be good so there's that...

 

[PhxSunFan34]

First I need to clarify that I don't watch a second of college ball, so I'm not hung up on any particular player. And I won't be upset if they skip Murry or whomever else this year to grab a target next year.

My only concern is if they try to bridge the gap with someone like Bridgewater.

But I agree with fansinceGWilson. We're rebuilding, not tanking.

 

[lbmclean_nocal]

this is professional football. in a sport where a man gets a compound fracture you are telling me that we are gonna look 52 men in the eye and say "yes Luke is the best QB we could find" if you really think the mindset is to intentionally tank then what level do you take it to? now that I think about it you could get away with fronting that Brock Osweiller was the best QB we could get and totally **** the bed

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

I wouldn't have an issue with anybody who believes Trevor Lawrence is a better quarterback prospect than Tua or Murray. Although I don't necessarily agree with it being a slam dunk at this point. The same media that hyped up Tua heading into this season are the same ones that now want to tell everybody how stupid they were for thinking he was any good in the first place. Now they're on a brigade to proclaim Lawrence the best quarterback since the game of football was invented.

The same media will be trashing Lawrence after he goes out and has a 140 yard, 2 INT performance against a team like Wake Forest next year. It's coming somewhere at some point down the road.

In terms of the Dolphins and the bigger picture, trying something different and attempting to have a plan in place and thinking a year ahead is one thing. Pretending you have one in place for 2 or 3 years down the road centered around a specific college quarterback is a little far fetched for me.

Making an honest assessment, having a plan, and staying the course in the offseason isn't the same thing as tanking once the games start. Coaches will coach and players will play once the season starts. But they'll do it with what the front office gives them while staying that course.

 

[NJ Dolphan]

The best way to ensure a tank, although it's not a guarantee, is to not go out of your way to have a credible quarterback on the roster. If the Dolphins go into the season with David Fales and Luke Falk as their QBs, they're 80% of the way there.

So far as planning now to wait for Lawrence, that's a bridge too far. You just can't tell what's going to happen by then and can dig yourself an even deeper hole. At most you have some kind of contingency where you think about him as a possibility in case the team has a surprising amount of success this year.

So far as Murray, I would keep an open mind and put out the usual rumors that he'll be selected if he falls to us. If you think he can be the guy, you take him, but he shouldn't be someone you take a chance on if you're not completely sold on him.

But in any event, it really sounds like the QB will be selected next year whether it's Tua, Herbert or Fromm.

 

[NJ Dolphan]

this is professional football. in a sport where a man gets a compound fracture you are telling me that we are gonna look 52 men in the eye and say "yes Luke is the best QB we could find" if you really think the mindset is to intentionally tank then what level do you take it to? now that I think about it you could get away with fronting that Brock Osweiller was the best QB we could get and totally **** the bed

I had a compound fracture playing sports (the same exact type as Alex Smith). If my livelihood depended on playing the sport, I wouldn't obey instructions to lie down, but I would understand what the people who are paying me are trying to do. If being a part of that operation impacted my livelihood in the future, I would ask out if I could.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I think now that Burke is gone, the defense will tighten up and be much better, so I agree it will be difficult to tank completely. The offense will NOT be good so there's that...

Remember, an 'average' O is better than last year. It doesn't have to be 'good'

 

[ckparrothead]

In reality while everyone are obsessed with Kyler Murray versus Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins are looking at the question much more holistically and focusing on Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, and even Jordan Love.

I doubt Trevor Lawrence is even in the picture because he's actually three years down the road, not two years down the road. You do not, cannot know whether he will come out early.

So they're thinking right now about Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, Jordan Love, Jacob Eason, Feleipe Franks, Cole McDonald, Josh Jackson, Sam Ehlinger, Nate Stanley, K.J. Costello, Steven Montez, maybe throw in Jake Bentley and Brian Lewerke, Khalil Tate, Blake Barnett, and Elijah Sindelar.

The Dolphins cannot take for granted that they're going to get a crack at Tua Tagovailoa because even if they execute a "managed decline" this off season there's probably less than a 1 in 10 chance they actually get a crack at Tagovailoa. So they will be looking at Justin Herbert versus Kyler Murray, mostly.

That's the question you all need to ask yourselves too. Would I rather have Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray?

Herbert's head coach is a huge Dolphins fan and has stated explicitly that he's getting Herbert ready for the Dolphins next year.

 

[Rev Kev]

this is professional football. in a sport where a man gets a compound fracture you are telling me that we are gonna look 52 men in the eye and say "yes Luke is the best QB we could find" if you really think the mindset is to intentionally tank then what level do you take it to? now that I think about it you could get away with fronting that Brock Osweiller was the best QB we could get and totally **** the bed

Well the Colts as much did - and yes I believe we are tanking the moves will come down and we will not move up this year should Murray fall they may abort but I highly doubt Murray makes it out of the tip 10

 

[LargoFin]

Chris Grier had said they are just now getting into QBs. So no, they do not have a three year outlook. It's impossible to even have a two year outlook since 2019 season has not even played out.

The only reason they are thinking of tanking is to have a alibi on drafting a QB high, #1 overall, on whom there is a consensus. So they are not on the hook for the decision. The team was 0-16, they sucked, they need a QB, and this guy is #1 overall consensus.

They have no clue what they are doing.

 

[Rev Kev]

In reality while everyone are obsessed with Kyler Murray versus Tua Tagovailoa, the Miami Dolphins are looking at the question much more holistically and focusing on Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, and even Jordan Love.

I doubt Trevor Lawrence is even in the picture because he's actually three years down the road, not two years down the road. You do not, cannot know whether he will come out early.

So they're thinking right now about Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, Jordan Love, Jacob Eason, Feleipe Franks, Cole McDonald, Josh Jackson, Sam Ehlinger, Nate Stanley, K.J. Costello, Steven Montez, maybe throw in Jake Bentley and Brian Lewerke, Khalil Tate, Blake Barnett, and Elijah Sindelar.

The Dolphins cannot take for granted that they're going to get a crack at Tua Tagovailoa because even if they execute a "managed decline" this off season there's probably less than a 1 in 10 chance they actually get a crack at Tagovailoa. So they will be looking at Justin Herbert versus Kyler Murray, mostly.

That's the question you all need to ask yourselves too. Would I rather have Justin Herbert or Kyler Murray?

Herbert's head coach is a huge Dolphins fan and has stated explicitly that he's getting Herbert ready for the Dolphins next year.

Good post Lawrence is too far away our chance at Our choice for QB is better with all the commotion with QBs next year

It may not be Tua but I gentleman bet bet we won’t beat any of our AFCE rivals next year so who else will be get a victory from?