If (When) Miami Has #1 Overall Pick in 2020...

[circumstances]

No question about his ability? I have all kinds of questions about his ability. So did Arizona. That's why they shipped him out of there only one year after taking him in the top ten.

They got rid of the OC and HC and brought in an offensive head coach in a passionate love affair with Kyler Murray!

It's Clown Shoe Central over there.

 

[Kamelion4291]

So you provide a 1 game example to dispute a 1 game opinion?

I'm giving a 1 game sample to counter the other one so that people might actually start to look at the total body of work.

 

[marinobestever]

kamelion: lawrence dismantled the best defense in 20 years on the biggest stage as a TRUE FRESHMAN...and youre not convinced about his ability??? ill take him over Tua any day come on man!

 

[MiamiDolfan85]

Regardless of when or even if Rosen starts we can still draft a QB high.

We didnt draft him....we didnt birth that chord. People dont grip that.

 

[fin415]

It was a totally different era of football back then. QB's almost always took time to develop back then, but now the QB's today have had so many reps by the time they get to the NFL it doesn't take nearly as long to know what you have as a player at QB. Rookies come in and are productive now.

Nonsense. The big change over time was that drafting high cost you a kings and queens ransom in terms of salary before the rookie played a down. If you missed on a high first round pick, you could easily cripple your team for a couple of years. The risk reward ratio was radically different then compared to today. Once a team drafted high, they had to match the investment of cap with an investment of time and coaching until either the player was "Good Enough"(™) or enough time had passed to manage the cap around the failure.

These days, if your GM misses on the first round pick, their ego is bruised (and he might get fired), but cap pain is manageable, which is why teams are taking more risk and accelerating QB development (a.k.a, not sitting them on the bench to watch and learn). The sooner a team learns what they have, the sooner they can decide if they need to make another run at a new QB.

With good, not great QBs demanding around 14 to 15% of team cap space after they roll off their rookie contract, a lot of GMs have to be asking where is the line between making a long term commitment which is hard to get out of because of the cap consequences vs. rolling disposable QBs.

 

[rickd13]

No. Arizona traded up to get Rosen. They didn't just "take a swing" because he fell to them.

Of course there will be QBs with first round value. Will there be any with top-overall-pick-value (to us)? I have no idea. And if there isn't I'm not just "taking a swing" and taking one anyway.

I can't even wrap my head around that line of thought. That method keeps team sucking and loses GMs their jobs.

So does not finding a franchise QB.

 

[rickd13]

Nonsense. The big change over time was that drafting high cost you a kings and queens ransom in terms of salary before the rookie played a down. If you missed on a high first round pick, you could easily cripple your team for a couple of years. The risk reward ratio was radically different then compared to today. Once a team drafted high, they had to match the investment of cap with an investment of time and coaching until either the player was "Good Enough"(™) or enough time had passed to manage the cap around the failure.

These days, if your GM misses on the first round pick, their ego is bruised (and he might get fired), but cap pain is manageable, which is why teams are taking more risk and accelerating QB development (a.k.a, not sitting them on the bench to watch and learn). The sooner a team learns what they have, the sooner they can decide if they need to make another run at a new QB.

With good, not great QBs demanding around 14 to 15% of team cap space after they roll off their rookie contract, a lot of GMs have to be asking where is the line between making a long term commitment which is hard to get out of because of the cap consequences vs. rolling disposable QBs.

I think you basically made my point for me. I agree with almost everything you said with the exception of why qb's of today play sooner. It's not nearly as crippling to miss on a qb now as it was then. That's why it's okay to draft another qb early even with Rosen on the roster. Neither one of them will cost big money until their second contract.

QB's of today are definitely more equipped to play sooner than QB's of the past. They have had so many reps through high school, qb camps, and college that there is no comparison to how much experience they have had when coming into the league compared to the past era. Plus, on top of that, you are seeing more and more college passing concepts making their way into the NFL makin it easier for them to transition to the pros. That combined with the opening up of the passing game due to rule changes, it's never been easier for a young qb to come in and have success early in their career.

 

[mrbunglez]

kamelion: lawrence dismantled the best defense in 20 years on the biggest stage as a TRUE FRESHMAN...and youre not convinced about his ability??? ill take him over Tua any day come on man!

Tua did the same thing in the championship the year before, but of course that doesn’t get mentioned. That Bama defense was far from great with all the injuries.

 

[Michael Scott]

I love the talk about Tua beating up on weak opponents. Can't wait to see all the gushing over Lawrence's numbers this year.

Clemson Schedule
Ga Tech - 2018 Record 7-6 (Malik Rosier caliber performance)
Texas A&M - 2018 Record 9-4
Syracuse - 2018 Record 10-3
Charlotte - 2018 Record 5-7 (FCS School)
UNC - 2018 Record 2-9
Fla State - 2018 Record 5-7
Boston College - 2018 Record 7-5
Wofford - 2018 Record 9-4 (FCS School)
NC state - 2018 Record 9-4
Wake Forest - 2018 Record 7-6
S. Carolina - 2018 Record 7-6

 

[72 silky]

Considering the interest we had in Rosen and then the interest in trading FOR Clowney, I wouldn’t say any plan is clear.

The plan is constantly evolving. As it should.

With all the moves they’ve Made up to today it’s more clear than ever the plan is all in on the 2020 draft. You’re fooling yourself if you think that Doesn’t include a top QB

 

[72 silky]

Did not vote, because it depends on how Rosen looks this year. Obviously if Rosen fails, Miami will probably either stay and pickup one of the QBs, or trade up for the QB they want, depending where they're drafting.

If on the other hand Rosen looks good, Miami trades the picks for picks in 2021, this allows them to get an even bigger look at Rosen in 2020, and if he succeeds, we have our QB, use the picks in other areas, but if he fails in 2020, Miami hopefully goes full boat at Lawrence in 2021.

Personally I hope nobody is hoping to see Miami fail in epic proportions to be able to draft one of the top QBs next year, or Lawrence in 2021.

Hope for what you have in hand now, don't fantasize about what we may possibly get at QB in the next few years.

It looks like Rosen ain’t part of the plans for the future

 

[72 silky]

If we end up with a top 3 pick and anyone here says we shouldn’t draft a QB with that top pick is crazy. I don’t think the front office is, they will get the QB they want in 2020

 

[raving]

We have the worst collection of talent in the league and your point that we "make up for it with real coaching" is optimistic homerism considering our coaches haven't coached a real game yet. We have no idea what we have yet as far as coaching goes.

The NFL is all about the front office and coaching.

Players thrive in the right system.

We know our thing has sucked forever.

Now we have Flores putting guys in the best position s for success.

Fans know nothing.

Mostly the whole thing of not beating yourself is the key to winning. We will be better then most imagine right now.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

No. Arizona traded up to get Rosen. They didn't just "take a swing" because he fell to them.

Of course there will be QBs with first round value. Will there be any with top-overall-pick-value (to us)? I have no idea. And if there isn't I'm not just "taking a swing" and taking one anyway.

I can't even wrap my head around that line of thought. That method keeps team sucking and loses GMs their jobs.

People who have been paying attention know that Tua is #1 material. People are unpredictable to some extent, so something could derail that, but based on the info we have today, Tua is the obvious pick at #1. If something changes we can talk, but as of September 3rd, this isn't even a real discussion.

 

[Gonzo]

Should they trade it for even more picks, and go for their qb in 2021? Or should they keep it and take their QB in 2020?

It’s hard to tell if Miami is going for a 2020 QB or a 2021 QB.

Nothing wins over the Phins fan base like draft picks, so obviously trade out and lock up dem picks! To be fair, the draft is typically the only interesting thing the team offers every year.