Is AJ that bad?

[wazzy]

Nice pick clownfish

SO excited to see if Feely can lead the dolphins somewhere this year or sit on the sidelines and watch oldman Gus pull off some crazy stuff hopefully

 

[djfresh47]

The team as a whole played better towards the end of last year, and I can't wait to see A.J. with a whole year under his belt and some real coaching.

The team did play better, but take away the New England game, which some people wanna give all the credit to Aj for winning. They beat a horrible SF team, and a Cleveland team which was awful. Playing well against Cleveland and SF should not be some big accomplishment because, basically every team played well against Cleveland and SF. Aj lead the Phins to a grand total of 10 points against Cleveland, the same team that gave up 58 points earlier in the year to an 8-8 team. I don't know how bad AJ is, but IMO it says something when ya gotta ask is "Aj that bad," rather than "How good is Aj?" I'm not sold on the Qb position and if the Qb play is like it was last season than i'm gonna predict that Miami picks in the top 5 again, hopefully it improves, but I think Gus is a better option for the short term, and I really think that the "Qb of the future" for the Phins is gonna be playing college ball next season.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

5.32 yards per attempt is plain lousy. I've charted that stat since '87 and it's very rare for a QB to compile a number like that at Feeley's age and then turn into something special. I remember Jim Harbaugh put together one or two numbers in the very high 7s for the Colts after poor stats a few years earlier in his career. A few other examples when a QB has switched to a much better team, but generally when you earn a number like that it's on merit, i.e. lack of accuracy, overly dependent on short passes, not enough variety of throws and general lack of ability.

Bud Goode's so-called Killer Stat is net yards per pass attempt offensively compared to what you allow in the same category defensively. We were very close to the bottom of the league last year at -.8, even though our defensive YPPA was very good, in the top 6 or 8 of the league.

I know fans generally prefer subjective judgements to stats, but these are facts:

* The team with the higher yards per pass attempt in a given game wins 80% of the time

* The team with the most rushing attempts wins 85% of the time

We need to remember numbers like that when someone proposes the short passing game as a solution. Clearly, it violates both high percentage criteria. You diminish yards per attempt, and pretend a short pass is merely a clever substitute for a rushing attempt. Ignorant rationale and suicidal.

 

[calphin]

Only time will tell.I for one think Feeley will be a good Qb.he definately has the arm strength to make all the throws,but unfortunately,he was running for his life last season.maybe if were lucky,the O-Line and running game will come together and we can see what he can do.I for one cant wait.

 

[kpcane]

The team as a whole played better towards the end of last year, and I can't wait to see A.J. with a whole year under his belt and some real coaching.

Here here.

BTW - I just got my AJ Feeley jersey today. Cuz I got faith in the kid. J/K...it was cuz it was only 30 bucks on finishline.com, although I just looked again today and it was up to 75 for some reason. Maybe they're on to something?

 

[PhiNomina]

blaming AJ for his stats last year is ignorant.

But it's not ignorant to blame Jay for his I am sure...

the team played much better as the year went on and AJ still didn't play well. I would love to see his QB rating over the last 3 games where everyone says he played lights out. He didn't throw as many INT's but he didn't exactly throw for a million yards or TD's either.

I am praying to God AJ kicks arse this year because all of our eggs are in one basket. I don't think he will ever be pro-bowl level but if he can stop making stupid decisions and get even an OUNCE of timing down on his long throws he could be plenty enough for this team to make some noise.

 

[PhiNomina]

5.32 yards per attempt is plain lousy. I've charted that stat since '87 and it's very rare for a QB to compile a number like that at Feeley's age and then turn into something special. I remember Jim Harbaugh put together one or two numbers in the very high 7s for the Colts after poor stats a few years earlier in his career. A few other examples when a QB has switched to a much better team, but generally when you earn a number like that it's on merit, i.e. lack of accuracy, overly dependent on short passes, not enough variety of throws and general lack of ability.

Bud Goode's so-called Killer Stat is net yards per pass attempt offensively compared to what you allow in the same category defensively. We were very close to the bottom of the league last year at -.8, even though our defensive YPPA was very good, in the top 6 or 8 of the league.

I know fans generally prefer subjective judgements to stats, but these are facts:

* The team with the higher yards per pass attempt in a given game wins 80% of the time

* The team with the most rushing attempts wins 85% of the time

We need to remember numbers like that when someone proposes the short passing game as a solution. Clearly, it violates both high percentage criteria. You diminish yards per attempt, and pretend a short pass is merely a clever substitute for a rushing attempt. Ignorant rationale and suicidal.

Wow great post, nice to see stats and facts back up an argument. Some people make a living with opinions being posed as facts.

 

[kpcane]

AJ will be in honolulu in february, in the pro bowl. Bookmark this page, you heard it here first.

 

[djfresh47]

5.32 yards per attempt is plain lousy. I've charted that stat since '87 and it's very rare for a QB to compile a number like that at Feeley's age and then turn into something special. I remember Jim Harbaugh put together one or two numbers in the very high 7s for the Colts after poor stats a few years earlier in his career. A few other examples when a QB has switched to a much better team, but generally when you earn a number like that it's on merit, i.e. lack of accuracy, overly dependent on short passes, not enough variety of throws and general lack of ability.

Bud Goode's so-called Killer Stat is net yards per pass attempt offensively compared to what you allow in the same category defensively. We were very close to the bottom of the league last year at -.8, even though our defensive YPPA was very good, in the top 6 or 8 of the league.

I know fans generally prefer subjective judgements to stats, but these are facts:

* The team with the higher yards per pass attempt in a given game wins 80% of the time

* The team with the most rushing attempts wins 85% of the time

We need to remember numbers like that when someone proposes the short passing game as a solution. Clearly, it violates both high percentage criteria. You diminish yards per attempt, and pretend a short pass is merely a clever substitute for a rushing attempt. Ignorant rationale and suicidal.

If Billy Beane were an NFL Gm he would love these stats.

 

[adamprez2003]

5.32 yards per attempt is plain lousy. I've charted that stat since '87 and it's very rare for a QB to compile a number like that at Feeley's age and then turn into something special. I remember Jim Harbaugh put together one or two numbers in the very high 7s for the Colts after poor stats a few years earlier in his career. A few other examples when a QB has switched to a much better team, but generally when you earn a number like that it's on merit, i.e. lack of accuracy, overly dependent on short passes, not enough variety of throws and general lack of ability.

Bud Goode's so-called Killer Stat is net yards per pass attempt offensively compared to what you allow in the same category defensively. We were very close to the bottom of the league last year at -.8, even though our defensive YPPA was very good, in the top 6 or 8 of the league.

I know fans generally prefer subjective judgements to stats, but these are facts:

* The team with the higher yards per pass attempt in a given game wins 80% of the time

* The team with the most rushing attempts wins 85% of the time

We need to remember numbers like that when someone proposes the short passing game as a solution. Clearly, it violates both high percentage criteria. You diminish yards per attempt, and pretend a short pass is merely a clever substitute for a rushing attempt. Ignorant rationale and suicidal.

I am not sure but are those stats still working? I may be wrong but I believe that it used to be the case with the sharp guys in Vegas that this was the holy grail but the last couple of years this formula hasn't worked as well

 

[PassRush]

Feeley showed alot last year. I truly belive that he will be something special, regardless of age. By the end of last year, we had a semi-decent core of recievers and something vaugly resembling an offensive line and he was running the two minute drill like the second coming of Dan Marino. The final six or so games he looked confident in the pocket, paitent waiting for routs to develope while avoiding the rush. One flaw is he throws on a flat tragectory which leads to alot of interceptions but I think Jason Garret can help him improve on that. Last year he did not have a chance, this year he has every opportunity to prove the naysayers wrong. This year AJ will capture the starting job and he will hold it for several years. Alright, this limb is starting to crack, I better go out on another one

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I am not sure but are those stats still working? I may be wrong but I believe that it used to be the case with the sharp guys in Vegas that this was the holy grail but the last couple of years this formula hasn't worked as well

It depends on what you mean by "working". They still hold up in terms of straight up wins, but it's true oddsmakers are more aware of trends like these so they have been factored into the pointspread more. Frankly, I blabbed a little bit too much about them years ago when I was a frequent guest on a radio sports talk show here. Michael Roxborough, then the chief oddsmaker, was cohost of the show and literally started taking notes then said, "Thanks Gary, I'll make sure you never make any money on that again."

Lately the league is more balanced and you seemingly just need to be dominant in one area to threaten a title, not the overall strength required before the salary cap. It's true some of the basic stats I used to rely on aren't as telling. Still, points scored and points allowed remain a great yardstick. Seven of the past nine Super Bowl champions led the league in the simple category of points scored divided by points allowed. New England was first last year at +1.68. I think we were something like .78, maybe sixth from last. In fact, the two teams that led the league in that category since 1995 but didn't win the title suffered brutal playoff losses -- Minnesota losing to Atlanta in '98 after a 10 point 4th quarter lead, and the 2001 Rams falling on the game ending FG to New England.

The NFL changes that frustrated me as a bettor were the elimination of artificial turf and the switch from 5 team divisions to 4. There were tons of obscure but very reliable situational angles that fed off switching from grass to turf, or playing a non-divisional team after a stretch of divisional games.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

One flaw is he throws on a flat tragectory which leads to alot of interceptions but I think Jason Garret can help him improve on that.

Yes, excellent point. I should have mentioned that in my first post in this thread. Interception percentage is second only to yards per attempt among vital QB stats. Feeley's is far too high and I have always thought the flat trajectory was his greatest flaw. That's an interesting comment that Garrett can help him. Feeley did take a bit off some throws late in the season, including the game winner to Thompson versus New England. Dead serious, I would have had him spend the offseason throwing over obstacles and into barrels, or something like that, to improve his variety of pace and loft.

 

[Phishstix]

Yes, excellent point. I should have mentioned that in my first post in this thread. Interception percentage is second only to yards per attempt among vital QB stats. Feeley's is far too high and I have always thought the flat trajectory was his greatest flaw. That's an interesting comment that Garrett can help him. Feeley did take a bit off some throws late in the season, including the game winner to Thompson versus New England. Dead serious, I would have had him spend the offseason throwing over obstacles and into barrels, or something like that, to improve his variety of pace and loft.

he has a three-quarters/sidearmed delivery on short and intermediate passes, which lead to the low trajectory, which leads to tipped passes and picks. in fact, go look at pictures of his release, and in just about every one his elbow will be low. his delivery is his biggest flaw imo, and it turns a 6'3" qb into a 5'11" qb, and that's problems.

 

[TARHEEL38]

No. He was placed into an impossible situation last year, beginning with training camp and DW's insistence on splitting reps with Fiedler.
It was made worse when the focal point of the offense RW quit before training camp even started and it was exacerbated by the inability to find a real offensive coordinator.
I don't think Peyton Manning or Tom Brady could have succeeded their first year as starters in that scenario either.
I have defended Feeley only because I don't think he has had the proper opportunity to show what he can do. If he plays poorly this year, I will be the first to say the team needs to move on and find someone better.

If you really think Manning or Brady would have not had a better season than AJ, you are really missing something. I understand you like the guy or whatever, but the two you mentioned are two of the very best at knowing where to go with the ball when blitzed. They make the D pay for blitzing. AJ just threw picks for scores. Fine give him another half year or so to get it down and then we can get rid of him, but he is not going to be the guy. It is not like he is 22, and we can give him time to get better, he is not THAT much younger than Gus. We know Gus is better, with more upside. Either give it to Gus or lets just go get someone else.