Is Ja’wuan James Worth $50m And A Third-round Pick? How Comp Picks Will Play A Factor

[Rick Cartman]

I agree. But it is worth noting that in addition to their better identification of OL talent than the Dolphins has been the fact that they use more draft picks on it too.

The Patriots are famous for trading back and acquiring more picks, usually in rounds 3-5, and more compensatory picks in that range as well. So those mid-rounds they use a lot of those picks on OL, and constantly have a revolving door of new OL coming through. Sometimes they even trade to acquire OL prospects. They don't stick with prospects for 3+ years if they're not working out, unlike the Dolphins who stick far too long with undeveloped projects like John Jerry, Dallas Thomas, Turner, and Jonathan Martin. The Patriots draft a lot of young prospects, and if they show signs of getting it, they keep them for another year or so, but if they putter along barely developing, they cut bait and move on to another mid-round OL prospect. The list of guys who failed at New England and succeeded elsewhere is pretty small compared to the number of players they churn through.

I'm with you @dolfan91 , we should use those mid-round picks to draft more OL … and since we're not using quality picks to find those hidden gems, we should be using quantity by drafting more of those guys, probably 2 per year, and draft OL every year. That cures us from the endless cycle of hope where we accept poor OL play because some kid has raw tools that continue to develop too slowly to be productive. If they don't develop quickly, get 'em out of the pipeline and bring in a new OL prospect and see what he's got.

Very well put. We have invested a decent amount of mid round picks into offensive linemen since 2013. The Patriots are just better at identifying talent and cutting bait faster.

 

[KBEE]

I believe we can rescind it anytime before the new league year, March 14. He would become a free agent at that point but I don't know if he would be considered a "cut"

I believe if we rescind he becomes a UFA.

 

[Digital]

Very well put. We have invested a decent amount of mid round picks into offensive linemen since 2013. The Patriots are just better at identifying talent and cutting bait faster.

Here are the draft picks that the New England Patriots have spent on OL since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000.

Year .. Round … Position … Name
2018 … 1 ... OT … Isaiah Wynn
2017 … 3 … OT … Antonio Garcia
2017 … 6 … OT … Conor McDermott
2016 … 3 … OG … Joe Thuney
2016 … 6 … OT … Ted Karras
2015 … 4 … OT … Tre' Jackson
2015 … 4 … OC … Shaq Mason
2015 … 5 … LS … Joe Cardona
2014 … 4 … OC … Bryan Stork
2014 … 4 … OT … Cameron Fleming
2014 … 6 … OL … Joe Halapio
2013 … 0 … OO … NONE
2012 … 0 … OO … NONE
2011 … 1 … OT … Nate Solder
2011 … 5 … OT … Marcus Cannon
2010 … 6 … OC … Ted Larsen
2010 … 7 … OT … Thomas Welch
2017 … 2 … OT … Sebastian Vollmer
2009 … 4 … OG … Rich Ohrmberger
2009 … 5 … OC … George Bussey
2009 … 6 … OC … Jake Ingram
2008 … 0 … OO … NONE
2007 … 5 … OT … Clint Oldenburg
2007 … 6 … OT … Corey Hilliard
2007 … 7 … OT … Mike Elgin
2006 … 5 … OT … Ryan O'Callaghan
2006 … 6 … OG … Dan Stevenson
2005 … 1 … OG … Logan Mankins
2005 … 3 … OT … Nick Kaczur
2004 … 0 … OO … NONE
2003 … 5 … OC … Dan Koppen
2002 … 0 … OO … NONE
2001 … 2 … OT … Matt Light
2001 … 4 … OT … Kenyatta Jones
2000 … 2 … OG … Adrian Klemm
2000 … 4 … OT … Greg Randall

Over the 19 drafts they have failed to draft an OL 5 times, and in the other 14 drafts they have selected 31 offensive linemen. So that averages to about 1.63 OL per draft, or if you prefer, about 2 OL per draft in the drafts they take an OL. By contrast, the Dolphins have drafted 24 OL in that time, with the big push being in 2003 and 2004 when we drafted 3 each draft, netting Vernon Carey-1st, Rex Hadnot-6th, Tony Page-7th, Wade Smith-3rd, Taylor Whitley-3rd, and Tim Provost-6th. We draft less OL, and we find quality offensive linemen.

Here is the breakdown of Patriot's OL picks by round:
1st - 3 (Isaiah Wynn, Nate Solder, Logan Mankins)
2nd - 2 (Sebastian Vollmer, Matt Light)
3rd - 3
4th - 7
5th - 6
6th - 7
7th - 2

Looking at their good OL, those guys drafted in the 1st and 2nd round all worked out, with those guys in rounds 3 and below being very hit and miss. The Dolphins have had some success with 1st rounders Laremy Tunsil, Vernon Carey, Jake Long, Mike Pouncey, and Ju'Wuan James, just that injuries wrecked Long and Pouncey; while James has been starter level but not star level. Vernon Carey was a good starter for a long time and Laremy Tunsil's future looks very bright. In the 2nd and 3rd round we have not been quite as successful with guys like Jonathan Martin, Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner, John Jerry, Wade Smith, Taylor Whitley, Seth McKinney, and Todd Wade.

Looking at the analysis, it seems like we need to invest more draft picks in mid-round picks if we want them to yield better results, and overall our OL scouting is not as good as New England's. Hopefully the new coaching staff's approach and schemes will get better results out of our OL.

 

[MiamiDolfan85]

Is right tackle Ja’Wuan James worth a multi-year contract paying him between $9 million and $10 million annually and a third-round pick? Because that’s essentially what it would cost the Dolphins to keep him. By allowing James, the Dolphins’ former first-round pick, to walk, they would likely get a third or fourth in return next year. And they could package that pick with other assets to go get their quarterback.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article226640884.html

If were gonna be losing the next 3 seasons...I think you found your answer

 

[Rick Cartman]

Here are the draft picks that the New England Patriots have spent on OL since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000.

Year .. Round … Position … Name
2018 … 1 ... OT … Isaiah Wynn
2017 … 3 … OT … Antonio Garcia
2017 … 6 … OT … Conor McDermott
2016 … 3 … OG … Joe Thuney
2016 … 6 … OT … Ted Karras
2015 … 4 … OT … Tre' Jackson
2015 … 4 … OC … Shaq Mason
2015 … 5 … LS … Joe Cardona
2014 … 4 … OC … Bryan Stork
2014 … 4 … OT … Cameron Fleming
2014 … 6 … OL … Joe Halapio
2013 … 0 … OO … NONE
2012 … 0 … OO … NONE
2011 … 1 … OT … Nate Solder
2011 … 5 … OT … Marcus Cannon
2010 … 6 … OC … Ted Larsen
2010 … 7 … OT … Thomas Welch
2017 … 2 … OT … Sebastian Vollmer
2009 … 4 … OG … Rich Ohrmberger
2009 … 5 … OC … George Bussey
2009 … 6 … OC … Jake Ingram
2008 … 0 … OO … NONE
2007 … 5 … OT … Clint Oldenburg
2007 … 6 … OT … Corey Hilliard
2007 … 7 … OT … Mike Elgin
2006 … 5 … OT … Ryan O'Callaghan
2006 … 6 … OG … Dan Stevenson
2005 … 1 … OG … Logan Mankins
2005 … 3 … OT … Nick Kaczur
2004 … 0 … OO … NONE
2003 … 5 … OC … Dan Koppen
2002 … 0 … OO … NONE
2001 … 2 … OT … Matt Light
2001 … 4 … OT … Kenyatta Jones
2000 … 2 … OG … Adrian Klemm
2000 … 4 … OT … Greg Randall

Over the 19 drafts they have failed to draft an OL 5 times, and in the other 14 drafts they have selected 31 offensive linemen. So that averages to about 1.63 OL per draft, or if you prefer, about 2 OL per draft in the drafts they take an OL. By contrast, the Dolphins have drafted 24 OL in that time, with the big push being in 2003 and 2004 when we drafted 3 each draft, netting Vernon Carey-1st, Rex Hadnot-6th, Tony Page-7th, Wade Smith-3rd, Taylor Whitley-3rd, and Tim Provost-6th. We draft less OL, and we find quality offensive linemen.

Here is the breakdown of Patriot's OL picks by round:
1st - 3 (Isaiah Wynn, Nate Solder, Logan Mankins)
2nd - 2 (Sebastian Vollmer, Matt Light)
3rd - 3
4th - 7
5th - 6
6th - 7
7th - 2

Looking at their good OL, those guys drafted in the 1st and 2nd round all worked out, with those guys in rounds 3 and below being very hit and miss. The Dolphins have had some success with 1st rounders Laremy Tunsil, Vernon Carey, Jake Long, Mike Pouncey, and Ju'Wuan James, just that injuries wrecked Long and Pouncey; while James has been starter level but not star level. Vernon Carey was a good starter for a long time and Laremy Tunsil's future looks very bright. In the 2nd and 3rd round we have not been quite as successful with guys like Jonathan Martin, Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner, John Jerry, Wade Smith, Taylor Whitley, Seth McKinney, and Todd Wade.

Looking at the analysis, it seems like we need to invest more draft picks in mid-round picks if we want them to yield better results, and overall our OL scouting is not as good as New England's. Hopefully the new coaching staff's approach and schemes will get better results out of our OL.

Well researched. In the end our scouting department just has to get better.

Also the NE oline may benefit from blocking for Brady. One of Brady's biggest strengths is reading the defense and knowing where to go with the ball before the snap. The ball is already out before anyone can get to him.

On an unrelated note, Wade Smith ended up having success in Kansas City and Houston.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

James is solid at RT and, along with Tunsil at LT, Miami has some building blocks there. The bigger question might be what type of right tackle can you get in the third or fourth round, the expected compensation for James? Likely a lesser player.

 

[phinfan40353]

There is only 2 players I'm extending for "more money"; Tunsil and X.

Everyone else can restructure, stay at current reasonable or immoveable contract or get cut. No new money except for T and X.

It is a rebuild. This IS when you purge money. That is goal #1 this year.

 

[phinfan40353]

Here are the draft picks that the New England Patriots have spent on OL since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000.

Year .. Round … Position … Name
2018 … 1 ... OT … Isaiah Wynn
2017 … 3 … OT … Antonio Garcia
2017 … 6 … OT … Conor McDermott
2016 … 3 … OG … Joe Thuney
2016 … 6 … OT … Ted Karras
2015 … 4 … OT … Tre' Jackson
2015 … 4 … OC … Shaq Mason
2015 … 5 … LS … Joe Cardona
2014 … 4 … OC … Bryan Stork
2014 … 4 … OT … Cameron Fleming
2014 … 6 … OL … Joe Halapio
2013 … 0 … OO … NONE
2012 … 0 … OO … NONE
2011 … 1 … OT … Nate Solder
2011 … 5 … OT … Marcus Cannon
2010 … 6 … OC … Ted Larsen
2010 … 7 … OT … Thomas Welch
2017 … 2 … OT … Sebastian Vollmer
2009 … 4 … OG … Rich Ohrmberger
2009 … 5 … OC … George Bussey
2009 … 6 … OC … Jake Ingram
2008 … 0 … OO … NONE
2007 … 5 … OT … Clint Oldenburg
2007 … 6 … OT … Corey Hilliard
2007 … 7 … OT … Mike Elgin
2006 … 5 … OT … Ryan O'Callaghan
2006 … 6 … OG … Dan Stevenson
2005 … 1 … OG … Logan Mankins
2005 … 3 … OT … Nick Kaczur
2004 … 0 … OO … NONE
2003 … 5 … OC … Dan Koppen
2002 … 0 … OO … NONE
2001 … 2 … OT … Matt Light
2001 … 4 … OT … Kenyatta Jones
2000 … 2 … OG … Adrian Klemm
2000 … 4 … OT … Greg Randall

Over the 19 drafts they have failed to draft an OL 5 times, and in the other 14 drafts they have selected 31 offensive linemen. So that averages to about 1.63 OL per draft, or if you prefer, about 2 OL per draft in the drafts they take an OL. By contrast, the Dolphins have drafted 24 OL in that time, with the big push being in 2003 and 2004 when we drafted 3 each draft, netting Vernon Carey-1st, Rex Hadnot-6th, Tony Page-7th, Wade Smith-3rd, Taylor Whitley-3rd, and Tim Provost-6th. We draft less OL, and we find quality offensive linemen.

Here is the breakdown of Patriot's OL picks by round:
1st - 3 (Isaiah Wynn, Nate Solder, Logan Mankins)
2nd - 2 (Sebastian Vollmer, Matt Light)
3rd - 3
4th - 7
5th - 6
6th - 7
7th - 2

Looking at their good OL, those guys drafted in the 1st and 2nd round all worked out, with those guys in rounds 3 and below being very hit and miss. The Dolphins have had some success with 1st rounders Laremy Tunsil, Vernon Carey, Jake Long, Mike Pouncey, and Ju'Wuan James, just that injuries wrecked Long and Pouncey; while James has been starter level but not star level. Vernon Carey was a good starter for a long time and Laremy Tunsil's future looks very bright. In the 2nd and 3rd round we have not been quite as successful with guys like Jonathan Martin, Dallas Thomas, Billy Turner, John Jerry, Wade Smith, Taylor Whitley, Seth McKinney, and Todd Wade.

Looking at the analysis, it seems like we need to invest more draft picks in mid-round picks if we want them to yield better results, and overall our OL scouting is not as good as New England's. Hopefully the new coaching staff's approach and schemes will get better results out of our OL.

Good insight.

I would like for us to look at a positional draft analysis by round to see when do we tend to identify successful players by round

For example, based on Grier, when do we do better identifying OL, DL, CB, etc.

So, when it comes time to draft those positions, save a player falling in our lap, we have an idea when to draft the position. It could help in not reaching for players based on perceived draft pick usage . And instead know when in the draft is a better chance for us to draft the position of need.

Granted, this is based on player position talent depth and availability.

It's more of a general plan than a hard and fast rule.

 

[phinfan40353]

James is solid at RT and, along with Tunsil at LT, Miami has some building blocks there. The bigger question might be what type of right tackle can you get in the third or fourth round, the expected compensation for James? Likely a lesser player.

I would agree if we kept Gase.

With a rebuild, you only consider paying for elite young talent. James would be a resign candidate if he was healthy and wanted a team friendly deal. He is not elite.

Let him walk. Pay X and Tunsil.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

I would agree if we kept Gase.

With a rebuild, you only consider paying for elite young talent. James would be a resign candidate if he was healthy and wanted a team friendly deal. He is not elite.

Let him walk. Pay X and Tunsil.

Ultimately, I think that's what will happen. But, that's a tough decision. Miami could need four starters on the offensive line and if they get their quarterback in 2019, that's not such a great formula.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

If we are going

Ultimately, I think that's what will happen. But, that's a tough decision. Miami could need four starters on the offensive line and if they get their quarterback in 2019, that's not such a great formula.

Draft a RG, move Davis to RT. Put Swanson under center, and bring in somebody like Chance Warmack (former 1st rounder, dominant LG in college).

The tank line, with good potential, is there...

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

If we are going

Draft a RG, move Davis to RT. Put Swanson under center, and bring in somebody like Chance Warmack (former 1st rounder, dominant LG in college).

The tank line, with good potential, is there...

Not the worst option, but I think that would mean Miami would need to draft offensive line pretty high and maybe use several high picks there. Personally, I would love to see Miami go DL in the first and second as there is just so much value there. Perhaps with the new regime, the Dolphins will have better luck with mid-rounders on the offensive line???

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

Not the worst option, but I think that would mean Miami would need to draft offensive line pretty high and maybe use several high picks there. Personally, I would love to see Miami go DL in the first and second as there is just so much value there. Perhaps with the new regime, the Dolphins will have better luck with mid-rounders on the offensive line???

Then pick a G in the 3rd...4th to protect our QB whenever we get behind somebody?

We have DL's who can at least make somewhat of a play. Besides Tunsil, who on that o-line makes you comforatable enough to put our draft back there with no cares?

For the record, my pick at 13 is Dexter Lawrence...since we want to get physical on both lines.

Followed by the RG from BC.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Then pick a G in the 3rd...4th to protect our QB whenever we get behind somebody?

We have DL's who can at least make somewhat of a play. Besides Tunsil, who on that o-line makes you comforatable enough to put our draft back there with no cares?

For the record, my pick at 13 is Dexter Lawrence...since we want to get physical on both lines.

Followed by the RG from BC.

Lawrence could be a great fit and allow Flores to be versatile with a 3-4. I don't think Taylor fits as a NT. Unless Murray falls, I would go defense probably the best pass rusher available. As to offensive line, I hope the new regime is better at developing talent. This has been a black hole for Miami for about 20 years.

 

[levv151]

RT is also where Jesse Davis has looked his best. Making someone the highest paid at the position should only be done because he has earned, and not because we don’t want a new hole.

This, every day of the week...