J-Off's 2020 Sideways Board

[Austin Tatious]

J-off, as usual, this is fantastic. You’re a very talented guy.

I am curious why you are dinging Chaisson a bit. I like him. Great burst, especially closing on the football. I see some wiggle too and not just a straight line guy. He can get himself free akin to a receiver.

He is more of a 34 OLB to me, and I’m not sure how Flores would use him. But I see him as a playmaker. I’d be intrigued at 18 depending what else is there.

 

[Rev Kev]

J-off, as usual, this is fantastic. You’re a very talented guy.

I am curious why you are dinging Chaisson a bit. I like him. Great burst, especially closing on the football. I see some wiggle too and not just a straight line guy. He can get himself free akin to a receiver.

He is more of a 34 OLB to me, and I’m not sure how Flores would use him. But I see him as a playmaker. I’d be intrigued at 18 depending what else is there.

Likely because he gets lost for plays and then shows up big - all of a sudden - the question is the motor the desire to be great all the time

 

[jimthefin]

I like Jackson more than Jones/Cleveland.

I like Wilson and Niang at RT which could be important if they land Tua. Niang is a guy who I think could play either OT and Wilson played RT at Georgia.

Obviously Wills played RT for Tua at Bama but he is likely gone in the top 15.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I’m curious what you think of Patrick queen as a prospect. Not just Miami fit

If I had to guess, Queen will be a similar pro to Jerome Baker. I didn't follow him as closely, because I knew he wasn't a fit for Miami. I do think he has a chance to be better than Baker, but I see a lot of similarities. Malik Harrison is the best fit for Miami in the class imo. Brooks is a dark horse. He plays bigger than he is, and he's at his best coming downhill, so he's a fit in that regard, but I think Miami would and should prefer someone with a bigger frame.

 

[A1.]

If I had to guess, Queen will be a similar pro to Jerome Baker. I didn't follow him as closely, because I knew he wasn't a fit for Miami. I do think he has a chance to be better than Baker, but I see a lot of similarities. Malik Harrison is the best fit for Miami in the class imo. Brooks is a dark horse. He plays bigger than he is, and he's at his best coming downhill, so he's a fit in that regard, but I think Miami would and should prefer someone with a bigger frame.

It’s interesting you comped him to baker bc having Baker is the reason I Don’t think we’ll consider queen as well.

But I still would. I’m a baker fan, but queen plays w/ much more pop in his pads and plays even faster imo. I think he’s got a nutty ceiling especially in today’s NFL. Queen doesn’t play nearly as small

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Jalen Hurts is solid-idly underrated.

I wouldn't take him in R1, but I'd take him over taking Love in R1.

Not surprised to see you low on the LBers..None of them are really elite at their position compared to years past.

There are lots of little things to improve but lots of big things to like imo. When his mechanics are good, he's very accurate. In general, he throws better downfield and on the run. On shorter throws, he'll often forget his lower half, which leads to some rough misses. He threw the ball 11+ yards at a higher rate than any QB in the class. On throws 11-19 yards he had the 2nd-best on-target % and the best completion percentage, and he also had the 2nd-best on-target % on throws 20+ yards.

Dak is the comp you often see/hear, and there are some clear similarities. In play style, though, he plays a lot like a young Russell Wilson. He wants to extend the play with his legs and push the ball downfield. His athleticism is also more similar to Russell Wilson. People say that Wilson only fell because of his height, but if you remember correctly, even as he was playing really well in Seattle, many people rightly pointed out that he bypassed relatively easy shorter throws run around and make plays downfield or with his legs. Wilson has done a good job of balancing that, and Hurts will need to, as well. I'm not saying Hurts will be Russell Wilson. If I was convinced of that, I'd have him in the Top 10.

Coming out of HS, Hurts was the #1 Dual Threat QB in the country, and he completed 63% of his passes as a True Freshman in the SEC. Despite throwing 11+ yards more than anyone else in 2019, he completed 70% of his passes. His natural touch/accuracy is what you want. Despite sabotaging himself at times with bad mechanics, he still hit his receivers at a really high rate. Contrast this with Josh Rosen, who had great mechanics but still struggled with accuracy. When you factor in his physical tools and character, I think Hurts has a very real chance to hit - especially in a good situation. Given the importance of QB, I think he warrants early consideration. Most QB's fail. You don't draft one fearing failure. You draft one because he has a chance to make it - the chance of hitting and ceiling determine how high you're willing to draft a given QB.

I do struggle with keeping Herbert ahead of him, and I'm not sure that's how I'll have it by Draft time.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

It’s interesting you comped him to baker bc having Baker is the reason I Don’t think we’ll consider queen as well.

But I still would. I’m a baker fan, but queen plays w/ much more pop in his pads and plays even faster imo. I think he’s got a nutty ceiling especially in today’s NFL. Queen doesn’t play nearly as small

If Flores was around in 2018, I don't think Baker would be in Miami. They brought in two bigger LB's who play the same position in FA. The system uses big bodies at DL and LB with a lot of DB's. I don't think Queen is a fit, and I think he'll be more valuable to other teams.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

J-off, as usual, this is fantastic. You’re a very talented guy.

I am curious why you are dinging Chaisson a bit. I like him. Great burst, especially closing on the football. I see some wiggle too and not just a straight line guy. He can get himself free akin to a receiver.

He is more of a 34 OLB to me, and I’m not sure how Flores would use him. But I see him as a playmaker. I’d be intrigued at 18 depending what else is there.

Thanks AT! Chaisson has some reps where he looks like exactly what you want at OLB, but he's inconsistent as a Pass Rusher. If you're going to spend a premium pick on a Pass Rushing OLB, you want a V. Miller, K. Mack, T. Watt kind of guy - someone who is a proven player with elite attributes. Chaisson is certainly not the former, and he didn't test, so we just know that he's generally athletic looking.

Also, Miami just paid Van Noy, and Chaisson wouldn't see significant snaps as long as Van Noy is there.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Superb job J-off. I'm trying to compile my own "bigish" board right now and have found myself in agreement with a lot of stuff here. I do have a few folks on mine that are missing on yours, such as Queen, Perine, Jonah Jackson and Shaddiq Charles and of course some movement in their positions much higher on McKinney and Chaisson than you are. Great list though, really appreciate all your insight and contribution to this board.

Edit: just noticed you had Charles on your list.

Appreciate it! I've addressed Chaisson and Queen since you've posted this, but Jonah Jackson is an interesting one for sure. Good player at Ohio State, but he's older, is smallish for OG, has a weird body, and he didn't test great. I could probably be convinced that he belongs in the 76-100 range, but he feels better to me in the 100+ range. He's not the type of prospect I'm looking to add to my team - except as a flyer.

 

[jimthefin]

Chaisson would be a bit of a projection. You would be buying his potentally very bright future, which he showed flashes of at LSU.

As for Van Noy blocking him, if he turns out to be the stud he has teased you would find a way to get him on the field.

I would much rather take a talent at a position of strength than address a need with a lesser player.

 

[Tailgun]

That chart is incredible. Going over it and reading it in detail you can't help but come away with one conclusion: Joe Burrow is terrifyingly accurate at every level of the football field - like preternaturally accurate.

Suddenly three 1sts doesn't seem so unreasonable...

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Thanks AT! Chaisson has some reps where he looks like exactly what you want at OLB, but he's inconsistent as a Pass Rusher. If you're going to spend a premium pick on a Pass Rushing OLB, you want a V. Miller, K. Mack, T. Watt kind of guy - someone who is a proven player with elite attributes. Chaisson is certainly not the former, and he didn't test, so we just know that he's generally athletic looking.

Also, Miami just paid Van Noy, and Chaisson wouldn't see significant snaps as long as Van Noy is there.

Chaisson is a squirmy little guy who can really get skinny and explode through tight spaces when everything clicks for him. Luxury type player who feeds off emotion and skilled players around him. In other words, no kidding he fit perfectly at LSU with all those premier athletes on defense and a quarterback forcing the opponent to throw upon huge deficit.

In more standard settings then plenty of weaknesses will show up.

Interesting player. I tend to think he'll make it. Seems to have been viewed very positively within the program, with other players in awe of his sheer ability. LSU fans insist he was still slowed by the ACL injury early in 2019 and that's why his overall numbers don't look good.

He didn't test at the combine but his high school numbers are out there and unlike Chase Young they are good for the most part. I think it was 4.69, albeit at something like 220 pounds. From memory the shuttle number was good but not great. The vertical was fine at 34.

Seattle types don't want Chaisson since he flunks their arm length criteria of 33+. I think Chaisson is 32.25. Otherwise I think he'd be perfect to rev up that pass rush especially in conjunction with more of a power type like Clowney...if they resign him.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Here's another one of those quarterback evaluation of throw by throw at all levels. I recommend examining the entire spreadsheet as opposed to merely the spotlight categories from the tweet. Below I'll get lazy and simply paste something I posted on another site:



In looking at the spreadsheet and all the categories broken down, you can see why a Washington State quarterback is difficult to evaluate. It doesn't resemble an NFL environment at all. Every snap from the shotgun. Virtually no play action. Extremely high percentage of passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Virtually nothing 16 yards or more downfield.

And more than anything, the way opponents choose to defend that type of offense. Anthony Gordon faced prevent as a rule, for the simple reason that opponents knew they didn't have to worry about any running game and also didn't have to worry about downfield throws.

It was striking that Tua faces a completely different type of defensive strategy than Gordon. Alabama opponents almost never play prevent. They send 5+ rushers a comparatively high percentage of the time. The prevent percentages and pressure percentages for Tua and Gordon were flopped.

So with Tua the question would be the opposite of question's posed to Gordon: What happens if Tua is now facing prevent defenses dropping back to cover as opposed to intent on pressuring hm? Likely some struggles and necessary adjustments on his part because it's obvious from the numbers he almost never has faced that type of thing.

Only 15 games studied for Jordan Love. I'd say that more lazy than it needed to be. It probably means not much from 2018. As I've mentioned I didn't care about Love's 2019 at all and only watched the Air Force game because it was so overwhelmingly obvious beforehand what type of decline that program and offense would have. It was even more blatant than all the personnel losses Josh Allen faced his senior season. Anyone who inherited Jordan Love within 2019 alone is missing the big picture, IMO.

Jordan Love is a gamble on greatness. If you hit it's huge and if you don't you'll know it within 2 years or perhaps portions into the third. Then you go elsewhere. He will be anything but a Ryan Tannehill perennial tease.

If anything I thought the Jacob Eason numbers were most troubling of all. That's a joke accuracy percentage under pressure. But no big mystery why it would unfold that way. Not only does Eason panic but he also has no touch whatsoever to bail him out when he is pressured. Some guys can sense the need for a rainbow into space, allowing the receiver to adjust and make the play. That never occurs to Eason because he doesn't have it in his arsenal. It is one mindless line drive after another.

The obscenely high drop rate for Eason at nearly 6% is also not surprising given that 100 mph dependency. Note the vast gap in how Eason fares when pressured compared to his play action accuracy, which is excellent. Jacob Eason is the guy you need to protect with a strong offensive line and lots of play action, then hope he matures and relaxes to the point he develops some confidence and change of pace while under duress.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Here's another one of those quarterback evaluation of throw by throw at all levels. I recommend examining the entire spreadsheet as opposed to merely the spotlight categories from the tweet. Below I'll get lazy and simply paste something I posted on another site:



In looking at the spreadsheet and all the categories broken down, you can see why a Washington State quarterback is difficult to evaluate. It doesn't resemble an NFL environment at all. Every snap from the shotgun. Virtually no play action. Extremely high percentage of passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Virtually nothing 16 yards or more downfield.

And more than anything, the way opponents choose to defend that type of offense. Anthony Gordon faced prevent as a rule, for the simple reason that opponents knew they didn't have to worry about any running game and also didn't have to worry about downfield throws.

It was striking that Tua faces a completely different type of defensive strategy than Gordon. Alabama opponents almost never play prevent. They send 5+ rushers a comparatively high percentage of the time. The prevent percentages and pressure percentages for Tua and Gordon were flopped.

So with Tua the question would be the opposite of question's posed to Gordon: What happens if Tua is now facing prevent defenses dropping back to cover as opposed to intent on pressuring hm? Likely some struggles and necessary adjustments on his part because it's obvious from the numbers he almost never has faced that type of thing.

Only 15 games studied for Jordan Love. I'd say that more lazy than it needed to be. It probably means not much from 2018. As I've mentioned I didn't care about Love's 2019 at all and only watched the Air Force game because it was so overwhelmingly obvious beforehand what type of decline that program and offense would have. It was even more blatant than all the personnel losses Josh Allen faced his senior season. Anyone who inherited Jordan Love within 2019 alone is missing the big picture, IMO.

Jordan Love is a gamble on greatness. If you hit it's huge and if you don't you'll know it within 2 years or perhaps portions into the third. Then you go elsewhere. He will be anything but a Ryan Tannehill perennial tease.

If anything I thought the Jacob Eason numbers were most troubling of all. That's a joke accuracy percentage under pressure. But no big mystery why it would unfold that way. Not only does Eason panic but he also has no touch whatsoever to bail him out when he is pressured. Some guys can sense the need for a rainbow into space, allowing the receiver to adjust and make the play. That never occurs to Eason because he doesn't have it in his arsenal. It is one mindless line drive after another.

The obscenely high drop rate for Eason at nearly 6% is also not surprising given that 100 mph dependency. Note the vast gap in how Eason fares when pressured compared to his play action accuracy, which is excellent. Jacob Eason is the guy you need to protect with a strong offensive line and lots of play action, then hope he matures and relaxes to the point he develops some confidence and change of pace while under duress.

Eason also has terrible feet. He looks like late-career Bledsoe in that regard. Just a slug. He's not for me.

 

[Geordie]

Eason also has terrible feet. He looks like late-career Bledsoe in that regard. Just a slug. He's not for me.

I am able to understand if the FO draft anyone of the top prospects Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts even Fromm but Eason is the one QB that I would struggle to come to terms with.