Kdawg's Extremely Early 2018 Dolphins Roster/Cap Projections

[NBP81]

Good job with the write up Kdawg! What I like about this is, agree or disagree, you still get a baseline of whats possible cap wise... You did the hard work so all that's left to do for the reader is to simply switch things around with players they would prefer with similar cap hits...

I agree that Cutler in a backup role is our best case scenario, but I dont think he goes for it. It wouldnt surprise me if he's on Gases's speed dial though(if that even exists anymore?) in case anything happens.
In that case, I think it's not a long shot that Moore remains and competes for the backup role.

As for the Nelson pick, I don't know. Reading between the lines, I feel like Gase thinks he can get by with decent on the OL, which it really was in the 2nd half of the season IMO... I might be in the minority but this group can pass block well, and with Tannehill he's going to be able to move the pocket around which in turn will help the running game. This all depends on Tannehill's knee obviously.

Agree with pretty much everything else, although I think they try to go after Jimmy Graham... Not that I think it's a good idea....

 

[Kdawg954]

Good job with the write up Kdawg! What I like about this is, agree or disagree, you still get a baseline of whats possible cap wise... You did the hard work so all that's left to do for the reader is to simply switch things around with players they would prefer with similar cap hits...

I agree that Cutler in a backup role is our best case scenario, but I dont think he goes for it. It wouldnt surprise me if he's on Gases's speed dial though(if that even exists anymore?) in case anything happens.
In that case, I think it's not a long shot that Moore remains and competes for the backup role.

As for the Nelson pick, I don't know. Reading between the lines, I feel like Gase thinks he can get by with decent on the OL, which it really was in the 2nd half of the season IMO... I might be in the minority but this group can pass block well, and with Tannehill he's going to be able to move the pocket around which in turn will help the running game. This all depends on Tannehill's knee obviously.

Agree with pretty much everything else, although I think they try to go after Jimmy Graham... Not that I think it's a good idea....

Yea for sure and the cap numbers certainly can be tweaked. If somebody thinks Landry gets 5 years, 70 million . . . add a million here or there per season and it still doesn't change the cap number for 2018 that much.

The Nelson pick is one where I need Grier/Tannenbaum to tell Gase "Shut up and take this massive man for your offensive line". But you could certainly be right and obviously there have been no combines/senior bowl/pro days etc. so who knows where some of those pick values will lie come April.

Like I said earlier, the FA pick I think our name will be thrown in is Trumaine Johnson but Jimmy Graham certainly could be in the conversation as well.

 

[finmann]

Holy **** Kdawg write a book, I wasn't expecting this when I told you to jump in.

The Landry deal seems so simple I couldn't believe it, a fair deal with a large signing bonus and it doesn't break the bank now or down the road.
Totally agree on Suh....leave that contract just where it is.
Cam Wake needs to be left alone, this one I have fought against from day one........He's not overpaid and still productive with his 10.5 sack.

The thought of Jay Cutler on this team for one more year at any price gives me a headache.

 

[AL R]

I think it was a good start dawg and don't get me wrong, I like Nelson. I just don't see the FO doing it

Ozzy rules!!

Me neither, not this FO, but the thought of the 2 of them together and a young OL is interesting for sure.

I think he is gone before 11 so..

 

[finmann]

Yea for sure and the cap numbers certainly can be tweaked. If somebody thinks Landry gets 5 years, 70 million . . . add a million here or there per season and it still doesn't change the cap number for 2018 that much.

The Nelson pick is one where I need Grier/Tannenbaum to tell Gase "Shut up and take this massive man for your offensive line". But you could certainly be right and obviously there have been no combines/senior bowl/pro days etc. so who knows where some of those pick values will lie come April.

Like I said earlier, the FA pick I think our name will be thrown in is Trumaine Johnson but Jimmy Graham certainly could be in the conversation as well.

The contract that Trumaine Johnson is going to command scares me, why not just continue to develop our own? These expensive FA pickups are just the thing that the Dolphins are known for, it's new, shiny and expensive.................I want one. Just leave it on the shelf and build the team through the draft.

 

[Phinatic8u]

If we keep Mcdonald we have to trade or cut Jones. We have 2 SS in the secondary with linebacker skills that can't cover TE's.
If we keep both, this defense willl be once again vulnerable in 2018 because they are not great in coverage... Hopefully we find the next Earl Thomas in the draft.

Which is why Derwin James is a legit pick for Miami..

 

[dnr3131]

I am going to attempt to throw a little something (or a lot of something) together to give an idea of what the team might be doing in the offseason and maybe more importantly, how will they get it done. Obviously many of these are subjective but I will try and be realistic as possible while putting this together.

With that said, lets get it started:

Initial Housekeeping:

The salary cap in 2017 came in at around $167 million dollars. Every year since 2012 the salary cap has jumped at least $10 million dollars. With reports suggesting the cap could go as high as $178 million dollars for 2018 . . . that is a number that I will roll with here.

With a projected cap of $178 million for 2018, that currently puts the Miami Dolphins at roughly $15 million below the cap entering the offseason.

Pre Free Agency Roster:

Clearly $15 million under the cap is nothing, especially in comparison to some teams at well over $60 and $70 million. So Miami will have some critical roster managing to do prior to FA and the draft.

Free Agents

Jarvis Landry
Jay Cutler
Matt Moore
Williams Hayes
Nate Allen
Koa Misi (retiring?)
Jermon Bushrod
Anthony Fasano
Michael Thomas
Damian Williams
John Denney
Alterraun Verner
Sam Young
Cody Parkey
David Fales
Walt Aikens
Terrence Fede

Signed Players that potentially have cuttable contracts to gain cap space

Juwan James - 5th year Option rescinded at $9.341 million saved with $0 in dead cap
Cameron Wake - $8.125 million saved with $500K in dead cap
Mike Pouncey - $7 million saved with $2 million in dead cap
Julius Thomas - $6.6 million saved with $0 in dead Cap
Lawrence Timmons - $5.475 million saved with $2.75 million in dead cap

Signed Players who may restructure and/or extend to help the team get 2018 cap relief

Ryan Tannehill - 3 years left with $60.5 million left in cap hits and only $4.6 million of that from guaranteed signing bonus dead cap hits. That is roughly $56 million dollars just floating out there unguaranteed (Ryan does have a 5th day kicker this year that would fully guarantee his 2018 base). This contract is BEGGING to be restructured if Miami needs cap relief. Obviously how they feel about Ryan, his role on this team going forward and his injury history will ultimately decided what happens but I personally would be pretty shocked if Miami didn't touch this contract in some way or form. If you are comfortable staking him as your QB of this team for the next 5 years . . . an extension, guaranteed money with injury provisions and a restructure of the first 3 years makes all the sense in the world. This is your year to bargain, because if he has a killer 2018, that price will skyrocket.

Ndamukong Suh - On paper, this contract looks awful and obviously needs restructuring. But once you dig deeper you realize there is no legit way to restructure this thing. While most restructures are essentially "kicking the cap hit can down the road" . . . this is the true definition of it on a extremely large scale. Where Ryan currently sits with more than 90% of the rest of his deal in unguaranteed base on the cap . . . Suh has 3 years and $76.5 million in cap hits remaining with $22.2 million of that as guaranteed signing bonus dead cap hits. That is nearly a whopping 30% on a contract that averages more than $25 million a year towards the cap. Pretty crazy for a non QB.

I do get what Miami was somewhat thinking. They restructured and planned to rollover that $10 million dollars for 2018/2019, so the average would of settled in around $20 million those 2 years and have an easy out in 2020 with an only $4 million dollar cap hit that could be split.

Ultimately you can desperately restructure which would pretty much make Suh a guaranteed Dolphin player for the next 3 years but this same conversation will exist next year and in 2020 . I don't think they do it but at least with Suh you are getting a true competitor on the field and a guy who will still likely be a top player at DT through the 2020 season.

Free Agency Roster Management:

So here is where the fun begins

Contracts staying the same

Mike Pouncey - I am fine with the deal the way it is and I am not interested in opening up a hole at Center. Gase likes Pouncey, the money at $7 million is not crazy and no guaranteed money is left on this deal so we can still monitor the health and get rid of this contract at any time.

Cam Wake - The man had 10.5 sacks and never commanded a huge deal in Miami. A paycut is not happening. The most I could see is them extending Cam a year if they got desperate, converting half of his 2018 base into signing bonus a relieving a little more than $2 million from this years cap but I think both Cam and Miami will be content to let this ride out in 2018 and outside of Cam having some sort of crazy good season and wanting to play, he retires a Fin.

Ndamukong Suh - I ain't touching this thing. Pay the piper now and keep your 2020 leverage.

Contract Cuts

I am cutting Julius Thomas and Lawrence Timmons. That immediately saves us $12 million in cap space and bumps our overall cap space to $27 million.

Restructures/Extensions

Juwan James - The $9.341 million dollar 5th year option gets torn up and he signs a deal for 5 years/33 million - 7.5 million in signing bonus - 15 million in guarantees (2018/2019 base guaranteed)

2018 - $2.5 million in guaranteed base salary - $1.5 million signing bonus - Total Cap hit is $4 million
2019 - $5 million in guaranteed base salary - $1.5 million signing bonus - Total Cap hit is $6.5 million
2020 - $5.5 million in base salary - $1.5 million signing bonus - Total Cap hit is $7 million
2021 - $6 million in base salary - $1.5 million signing bonus - Total Cap hit is $7.5 million
2022 - $6.5 million in base salary - $1.5 million signing bonus - Total Cap hit is $8 million

This year we seemed to get the depth in order on the offensive line, Miami now has Tunsil/James/Pouncey/Davis in the fold for the next 3 years while also having guys like Sterup/Smith/Brendal/Asiata continuting to grow and compete.

Our 2018 cap hit has now added $5.341 million in cap space from this deal and we stand at $32.341 million.

Ryan Tannehill - There will be injury provisions regarding the knee, but the Dolphins and Tannehill rip up the current deal and Ryan signs a new 5 year deal worth $110 million. Signing Bonus will be 20 million and guaranteed base salaries in 2018 and 2019.

2018 - $6.5 million in guaranteed base salary - $6.3 million in signing bonus ($2.3 from previous deal) - Total Cap hit is $12.8 million

2019 - $15 million in guaranteed base salary - $6.3 million in signing bonus ($2.3 from previous deal) - Total Cap hit is $21.3 million

2020 - $20 million in base salary - $4 million in signing bonus - Total Cap Hit is $24 million

2021 - $23 million in base salary - $4 million in signing bonus - Total Cap Hit is $27 million

2022 - $25.5 million in base salary - $4 million in signing bonus - Total cap Hit is $29.5 million

It's a lot of money . . . welcome to average QB money as the cap continues to rise and new deals are being made. All Miami essentially did was give Ryan a piece of mind the next 2 years and pay him what they would of while saving $7 million on the cap for 2018. The last 2 years, hell 3 years are workable. Miami can reevaluate the deal in 2 years if necessary.

Miami now has roughly $40 million to work with heading into Free Agency.

Resigns

Really not going to go into detail with all the contracts here as they are all smaller deals . . . except for 1.

Jarvis Landry (this deal could happen after being franchised but it will eventually happen) - 5 years, $62.5 million. Signing Bonus is $15 million. Guaranteed Base salaries in 2018 and 2019.

2018 - $7.5 million in guaranteed base - $3 million in signing bonus - Total Cap Hit is $10.5 million
2019 - $8.5 million in guaranteed base - $3 million in signing bonus - Total Cap HIt is $11.5 million
2020 - $9.5 million base - $3 million in signing bonus - Total Cap Hit is $12.5 million
2021 - $10.5 million base - $3 million in signing bonus - Total Cap Hit is $13.5 million
2022 - $11.5 million base - $3 million in signing bonus - Total Cap Hit is $14.5 million

Jay Cutler - 1 year - $5 million - can make up to $10 million based on incentives regarding games started, touchdowns, pro bowl and playoff games started.. Gase wants a proper contingency plan and he still feels his best option for the short term is Jay Cutler with a full offseason program. (2018 cap hit $5 million)

Cody Parkey - 3 years - $8 million (2018 cap hit $2 million)

Anthony Fasano - 1 year - $2.5 million (2018 cap hit $2.5 million)

John Denney - 1 year - $1 million (2018 cap hit $1 million)

I am going to leave out free agent special teamers like Thomas, Aikens and Fede for now. We have some young guys on rookie contracts that have done well this year on them. But I think Fede will check out his options in FA and the other 2 will be replaced by the likes of Lucas and Smith at safety. I'd say William Hayes is the one guy I haven't mentioned that Miami could bring back because of his ability to kick inside and stop the run. There will be money for him if need be.

After Free Agency, Miami will have roughly $19 million in cap space heading into the draft. Obviously I have us bringing in nobody, that of course could change but I like the youth approach we have taken and we need to buy a year on the cap and this is the best way to do it.

Draft (analysis first 3 rounds)

Miami will need roughly $7 million dollars to sign its draft class in 2018

11. Quenton Nelson - OG - Notre Dame - Miami was targeting Roquan Smith, but he goes right before their pick and they happily swoop in and get this mammoth guard out of Notre Dame who slid a bit due to Quarterbacks being pushed up the board (5 taken in the top 10). While Adam Gase normally doesn't look for using high resources at guard, Nelson fills the largest hole on the team at LG and is the BPA on the Miami board. Ted Larsen becomes the primary backup at guard and center.

42. Malik Jefferson - LB - Texas - Miami gets a developing stud LB in round 2 to continue their intent of adding athleticism to that middle third of the defense. With Alonso (not in the mood for cut Kiko talk), McMillan and Anthony as well, the Dolphins feel they are as athletic as they have been in years at the LB position after this pick.

73. Dallas Goedert - TE - South Dakota State - Miami could get fancy and trade up for this kid but the TE's in general fall in this draft and Miami gets the most athletic one of the group. Small school kid but instantly provides the seam threat that Gase and Dolfans have been clamoring for over the years. Fasano back will help mentor this kid to become a weapon as the season progresses.

107. Chad Thomas - DE - Miami

128. Raashad Penny - RB - SDSU

169. Kurt Benkert - QB - Virginia

197. Damon Webb - FS - Ohio State

Final Roster

QB - Tannehill/Cutler (Benkert to the PS)
RB - Drake/Penny/Smith/Perry
WR - Parker/Stills/Landry/Carroo/Grant
TE - Goedert/Fasano/Gray/Derby
LT - Tunsil/Sterup
LG - Nelson/Larsen
OC - Pouncey/Brendal
RT - Davis/Asiata
RG - James/Smith

DE - Branch/Wake/Harris/Thomas/Malveaux
DT - Suh/Phillips/Godchaux/Taylor
LB - Alonso/McMillan/Jefferson/Anthony/Allen/Hull
CB - Howard/Tankersley/McCain/Lippett/McTyer
S - Jones/Mcdonald/Smith/Webb/Lucas

K - Parkey
P - Haack (can change)
LS - Denney

Wrap Up

After Free Agency, small little resigns/tenders/etc and Draft I expect Miami to settle in around $10 million in free cap space throughout the season . . . a number they would sure love to keep in tact for a potential roll over in 2019.

Miami will hope for bounce years from guys like Kiko Alonso and Andre Branch, in addition to continued growth from the secondary and DT position to help improve a defense that ultimately I think were mentally worn out by watching an anemic offense early on in the season. Excited to see this athletic LB group.

On offense it is all about the return of Ryan Tannehill. He will have what should be his best offensive line by far during his tenure, seasoned skilled playmakers all over the field and another year in the offense despite not playing in 2017.

Big year for Adam Gase obviously . . . it's his time. That penalty BS we saw this year needs to stop.

Prediction: 11-5

Love it. Kiko will NOT be a starter if it is a true open competition. Allen is much better option going forward. As of now = Anthony/McMillan/Allen '18 starters, young, fast, athletic trio

 

[Kdawg954]

Which is why Derwin James is a legit pick for Miami..

I just worry that his skill set is more for SS. He could be a great one, Eric Berry like even (although nobody has those instincts), but you just signed Reshad, you got TJ, I don't think you need a third guy in the mix with such a high asset unless he is a pure playmaking center field type.

That said, that would be one hell of a safety group back there . . . Miami could throw a ton of looks back there.

 

[Phinatic8u]

The contract that Trumaine Johnson is going to command scares me, why not just continue to develop our own? These expensive FA pickups are just the thing that the Dolphins are known for, it's new, shiny and expensive.................I want one. Just leave it on the shelf and build the team through the draft.

I do NOT see this team going after a CB..

They know they have good young ones now.

 

[Phinatic8u]

I just worry that his skill set is more for SS. He could be a great one, Eric Berry like even (although nobody has those instincts), but you just signed Reshad, you got TJ, I don't think you need a third guy in the mix with such a high asset unless he is a pure playmaking center field type.

That said, that would be one hell of a safety group back there . . . Miami could throw a ton of looks back there.

His athletic ability makes him a interesting FS prospect, his range is great.

I'd draft him for TE's alone. We all know TJ and Jones can't, Kiko couldn't cover me..Miami knows this too.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

I don't know, apparently we tried for the last two off-seasons to get Richard Sherman. You would hope that with the way Xavien Howard is playing and with the promise that Lippett/Tankersley have shown that we will try to keep developing those guys, but I could definitely see Miami swinging a trade for Sherman or somebody.

On the subject of safeties, Nate Allen is still under contract, right? He actually played pretty well at FS before he got hurt. I think a lot of the team's pass coverage issues could be mitigated by going to Dime looks with McDonald, Jones, and Allen in the mix.

Jones and McDonald are strong enough in run support that it would be viable, IMO.

 

[Blancgary911]

Couldnt the dolphins sign Jimmy Graham to a 1 or 2 year contract like they did Julius Thomas just to see what he can do in this offense and also draft a development tight end in the draft for them to develop for the future. That way with Jimmy u have him for a year or 2 but if things dont work out u can let him go after year 1 or if it works out u can keep him that 2 year. I know their will be other TEs in free agency this year but they have been injured throughout their careers and Jimmy has been sturdy except that last major injure he had

 

[Kdawg954]

I do NOT see this team going after a CB..

They know they have good young ones now.

Lippett and McCain on their final year . . . Howard will probably need to be extended after the season, so if he takes another jump expect that deal to be pretty huge. Hoping Tank takes a jump like Howard did in year 2.

But I think we could use another CB in the mix. Mctyer I am intrigued with still . . . I love that speed and he gives us a backup nickel option, but that spot should go to anyone who Miami thinks can be developed as that CB depth can go from nice to thin in a year.

But I feel like Tannenbaum has been chasing this guy for 2 years and the Rams foiled his plot by franchising him both times lol

 

[Kdawg954]

His athletic ability makes him a interesting FS prospect, his range is great.

I'd draft him for TE's alone. We all know TJ and Jones can't, Kiko couldn't cover me..Miami knows this too.

He'd be a solid FS, I think he would be a top level SS.

Hey he's talented as hell . . . the defense needs talent. We'd make it work for sure.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

Couldnt the dolphins sign Jimmy Graham to a 1 or 2 year contract like they did Julius Thomas just to see what he can do in this offense and also draft a development tight end in the draft for them to develop for the future. That way with Jimmy u have him for a year or 2 but if things dont work out u can let him go after year 1 or if it works out u can keep him that 2 yea.

Graham will get better offers than 1-2 year prove it deals. His production was down in Seattle, but anybody who sits down and watches all of his Seahawks film will blame OC Darrell Bevell for that a lot more than Graham.

I personally believe that Miami will make a serious run at him. I'm not sure if that's good or bad, honestly. Although I think he would be an immediate impact upgrade, paying him and Landry would really FUBAR the team's cap situation. And I think we're paying Landry.