Let me throw a little coldwater on this years expectations | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Let me throw a little coldwater on this years expectations

I expect the Dolphins to finish around 7-9 this year. I think the big jump will come in 2021 when they add more pieces in next year's draft and Tua finally takes over at QB from the get go. I'm not saying he won't play this season, I just mean he will be the unquestioned starter going into next season. I believe this will be Fitzpatrick's last year in Miami.
 
buttonwood said:
I know a lot of you are really excited to see the Dolphins improve this year, i'm sure a lot of you think they will be a playoff contender and take a large leap forward. I dont agree , and ill tell you why.
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I understand what you're trying to do, and saying. We need to be more grounded and not get overly hyped to overestimste what to expect from Miami, but though it will be a huge hill to climb, and the odds will be very much against us, what this team did in the off season is far from common, which might counter each of your questions

buttonwood said:
First there is the still churning of the roster. The offensive line is completely new and (supposedly) improved. This has been the training camp story ever since Richmond Webb and Keith Sims were drafted together in 1990. I cant remember an offseason when we didnt have a new staff saying how this line was going to be........ Insert superlatives here........
Maybe this year is different but,
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The O-line was extraordinarily bad in 2019, yet Miami with much less talent then they have now found a way to win 5 games in the 2nd half (One of those games was against a desperate Patriots team in NE) using that same line.

Miami now has far more talent, and though there is a good chance there could be as many as 3 Rookies, and yes there will be huge growing pains as they all get used to each other, a team does not win 5 games with that type of team, unless the coaching is up to the challenge...Until the line begins to gel together, I have faith our coaching staff can find ways to even the playing field.

buttonwood said:
Second, This was the worst defense in the league last year, and is now being coached by its 5th different coordinator in 6 years. (Not sure on the accuracy on that but its close.) You could call them the no name defense, but thats an insult to our beloved band of champions. They could be called the nobodys however, because other than Howard who is injury prone at best theres not many guys who have made a name for themselves in this league. They might improve and the scheme may be favorable and this and that, blah blah blah.... you get the point
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On paper, and on the field so far, this Defense looks to be a far better unit then last year. The front 7 is full of players that are known to be good against the run, while the Secondary is at worst solid against the pass, but then add that on each corner you have a premium CB, and in the slot you have a top Rookie DB that has been nothing less then very impressive, and this is much more then a solid Secondary. What Miami lacks on paper is any kind of real consistent Pass-Rush, yet now even that might not be as big an issue considering Lawson and Ogbah are said to be killing it in practice...We will find out soon enough if it's the O-line being inferior or the D- line being better then expected.

We do have some known quality names on the defense...Howard, Jones, Lawson, Van Noy, Ogbah, Wilkins, Baker...This Defense in destined this year to be much better then 2019, and that could be more then enough

buttonwood said:
The Third and biggest obstacle to me is obviously the lack of offseason. There hasnt been any real sweating, hitting or real time to get these guys together and thats a massive problem with a young team still in their NFL Diapers. Throw in a bunch of new coaches, a second year coach , Who really hasnt done anything but beat an aging Pats team in Foxboro, and I see a recipie for 4-12 to maybe 7-9. Thats my thought, id love to see us take a major step forward but I just cant see it this year.
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Well, that aging Pats team beat most of the team put in front of them in 2019, and only lost to two teams at home, the Dolphins, and the eventual SB winner, so not too much aging.

Miami has two big Receivers that are increadably tough to cover, have the next young up and coming TE (Who has become quite dangerous in the REDZONE), two talented young RBs that proved to be pretty effective on their prior teams, a Starting QB that is loaded with huge experience, and canbget very hot, a 3rd year strong armed QB that is slowly getting better, and a Rookie QB that has by far the biggest ceiling of all of them. Finally there are more Receivers and RBs on the roster all capable of making plays.

Though this offense is somewhat held back by the lack of an O-line, it does have talent, and once the line gets it's act together, with the right QB, WR, RB, TE...This is 30+ points a game type offense.

Not saying this team will be in the SB, or even an obvious playoff team, they will have some growing to get through, and things could work against them to only help them win between 4-6 games, but if everything falls into place, this is a 9-11 win team, and a possible playoff team...Once in the playoffs, anything is possible.
 
Crump said:
payton mannin was a star in denver running the RPO and he has less mobility than fitz. do we want fitz running a qb option sweep...nope. rpo, yeah thats fine. you either handoff to running back or throw the ball unless you have an elite running optiok at qb...... but dont forget who our leading rusher was last season
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Good perspective. Thanks!

I guess I just assume/see a legit "RPO" being run by a QB who can challenge the D
with either his arm or legs... But I guess there's more than one way to run an RPO
or something that at least looks like a duck and quacks like quail!

:lol:

>>> All in fun!
 
Being realistic think we will be similar to last season. We threw a lot of the pre season out the window with so many changes to the roster early and this year we have had very limited pre season.
We started to put it together and had a great wet sail run to finish with 5 of 9. Think this season may be similar but we have brought in a heap more talent but the rookies may take some time to bed in. How long will be the key although we also have a good mix of FA's that will make us more competitive early.
If the rookies especially the OL [incredible if it happens and we have 5 new starters by mid season compared to the end of the last] get it together quickly then 5 wins could go up by a couple more and we may be still in the playoff hunt until the end, but think we will fall a little short in that regard.
The number of wins don't concern me as much as bedding in the younger players that go on show they can be long term solutions.
 
Good post. I'm not expecting playoffs, but I hope to see continued development from young players and overall improvement. I want to see the needle pointing up, which I think we will.
 
Easy to be optimistic IMO ...along with the positives listed ...

Every team has a disadvantage from a contact/tackling POV because of the loss of pre-season games (game speed, continuity)

Probably the only teams that will have any advantage early will be the ones with the least turnover from last season putting the Dolphins on the same level as the rest .... so it's up to the difference in talent and coaching

We have a new look offensively (new OC) so no old game tape on our offense

So it's easy for me to be optimistic even though the OP's points are valid ... I don't believe we regress from last season and after starting 2-2 Tua will come in and change the look again ... and he's not coming in to look back IMO
 
While I understand much of your post, OP (although I always question WHY some feel the need to rein in optimism), I don’t understand or agree with the third point.

It’s not like the Dolphins are the ONLY team that isn’t going to have no preseason and limited TC. It’s an even playing field. And although this favors teams that have low roster turnover, that’s not the case in most of the AFC East.

You know who I think this REALLY screws with? The Jets. Gase rarely had Miami properly prepared in a season with a full TC and preseason. You think they look crisp this year? I sure don’t.
 
The Goat said:
While I understand much of your post, OP (although I always question WHY some feel the need to rein in optimism), I don’t understand or agree with the third point.

It’s not like the Dolphins are the ONLY team that isn’t going to have no preseason and limited TC. It’s an even playing field. And although this favors teams that have low roster turnover, that’s not the case in most of the AFC East.

You know who I think this REALLY screws with? The Jets. Gase rarely had Miami properly prepared in a season with a full TC and preseason. You think they look crisp this year? I sure don’t.
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You mentioned "reigning in optimism".

The overly optimistic poster never bothers me as much as the negative ones. Those guys who are always miserable, you know the ones... our GM sucks; that linebacker is garbage; only a fool would think our safety will get any better: I knew from the start that..."

I've never used the mute button here, but there are three or four guys who I've been tempted to use it upon. They are SUCH a drag.

Give me that Pollyanna guy over any of those miserable wretches.
 
nick1 said:
Tua gonna break the rookie TD record watch :) how’s that for homer
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Going to be hard to do when he likely will only get 2 or 3 starts at the end of the season. With the record for a rookie being 27 TD passes, I guess that means he will have to average over 9 TD’s a game if he gets those 3 starts.
 
Irishfinfan1 said:
6-10 is probably realistic, too many rookies especially on the oline but it is year 2 of the rebuild so would be content with that as long as we see improvement and a clear philosophy on both sides as the young guys bed in.
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I agree because I think the OL is still going to be a major issue in 2020. With so many young offensive linemen, I think it could take them most of the season before they develop cohesion on that unit. Fitzpatrick will find a way to pull out 4 or 5 wins over the season but I still expect the Dolphins to have a top 5 pick in next years draft and another pick in the top 15.Be ause I don’t the the a Texans winning more than 8 games this season.

I am looking forward to seeing how the young players develop in 2020 but I really don’t see the Dolphins having a winning record until at least 2021.
 
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