Manuel Wright in the 3rd Guarantee. | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Manuel Wright in the 3rd Guarantee.

In regards to gaining weight, I read a comment by Wright's father that he arrived at USC weighing 365 pounds. I also read that he finished that season in the 325-335 range, and that he was aiming for the 300-310 range for his workouts. Was he out of shape at ~330?? Or is ~305 even better shape??

Regardless, he might not need to be real heavy if he's strong. Anthony McFarland plays NT at 300 pounds in Tampa. But he's 6-0 tall. Wright's 6-6. So you'd think he'd need to get to at least 315-320.

However, it should be noted that McFarland moved to the three-technique in 2004. And Wright is supposed to be more suited for that role. A better benchmark might lie in Jacksonville, where Marcus Stroud goes 312 (6-6) and John Henderson goes 328 (6-7). Saban wants more penetration from the inside. And we do not have a true DT who fits that bill.

Holliday can gain weight. As CK mentioned, he was 300+ pounds in college. Does he want to?? I'm not sure. Bedard mentioned that Holliday wasn't pleased playing NT during OTA's. But I think that's one man's opinion of the situation.
 
Until we know for sure, we have no choice but to assume it could go either way... us or the Bengals. But if it is Cincinnati, I really do think that we should use our 3rd on Manuel Wright because than it'd be guarenteed that he would be ours.
 
the big question is, would Miami draft this guy if he was around in the third round next year. If that is a yes it is a slam dunk whether they should draft him in the supp draft or not. If that is a maybe then not so much of a slam dunk
 
It also helps that our assistant OL coach was at USC for Wright's entire career. So he got a pretty good look at the kid every day.
 
whatsburning said:
I thought I read that this guy didn't even start in college. How is he considered the next best thing? Maybe we can convince Cincinnatti to give us their third and fourth for his rights?
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Look at who he was playing behind...... an all-american. He was the next best thing to Cody... Right now we are thin at DT and if we would pick him in next years draft with a 3rd, we might as well take him now with a 3rd. Thats Saban's call.
 
Is the supplemental draft (Lottery) weighted? (Like the NBA) Or does our third pick rating use last years record?

Also, it's my understanding that the picks are all emailed into the leaque. Is this all done at the same time? So no one would know what the other picks were before they sent in their selections.
 
Holliday can gain weight. As CK mentioned, he was 300+ pounds in college. Does he want to?? I'm not sure. Bedard mentioned that Holliday wasn't pleased playing NT during OTA's. But I think that's one man's opinion of the situation.
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I had not heard Bedard mention that Holliday had a problem with playing NT. I know that I heard Holliday interviewed and they asked about that and he just said something like "Have you seen my playbook? It's huge, they have me all over the place I wouldn't read into anything about me playing any one position"

the big question is, would Miami draft this guy if he was around in the third round next year. If that is a yes it is a slam dunk whether they should draft him in the supp draft or not. If that is a maybe then not so much of a slam dunk
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That's a really tough question, actually. We can't know whether or not we'd target him in the 3rd next year, because we don't know who will be entering the draft next year, and we're missing data on their 2005 seasons. So much can change between now and then.

A more pertinent question would be, would you have drafted Manuel Wright in the 3rd round of this year's draft? Channing Crowder or Manuel Wright, which one would you have taken? Some would argue that if we were applying it to this year's draft the question would be would you have drafted him in the 4th round, because a 4th rounder this year = a 3rd rounder in 2006. As you may have seen me say before, I believe this line of thinking to be flawed. I wish we could know what the relative value of next year's draft of players will be as a whole compared to this year's draft of players, but we don't know anything about next year's draft of players, so the best indication we have is this year's draft of players.

So, Channing Crowder or Manuel Wright? Which one would you have taken?
 
As a sidebar to this issue of what a draft pick in a future year is worth in terms of present draft picks, imagine this scenario:

The current thinking is that a 2nd rounder now, is worth a 1st rounder in the future. A 3rd rounder now, is worth a future 2nd round, etc. As an experiment, let's say that one year you decided to give up your current 3rd round pick, for a future 2nd round pick. Then, the following year you have a 1st, two 2nds, and a 3rd. So, since you've got two 2nds, you decide to give up this year's 3rd rounder, again, for a future 2nd round pick. Let's say you develop a habit of this strategy, and it goes on for eternity. What happens? Theoretically, you will be giving up a present 3rd round pick, and in exchange you will be afforded a PERMANENT draft allocation change to where you no longer are allocated a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the first day, but rather, a 1st, 2nd, and 2nd. Forever.

Wouldn't that be worth a present 3rd rounder? To pick twice in the 2nd round, instead of once in the 2nd and once in the 3rd, for the rest of eternity?

Keep an eye on Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli in New England. I believe they have this theory in practice. I've seen them trade a present 3rd rounder for a future 2nd rounder twice now...once to Miami (which we used I believe on Wade Smith), and once this year I think to Arizona. I suspect they also may have done the same thing in 2002, since my fact checking on NFL.com shows that they are missing a 3rd round pick in 2002, and suspiciously had two 2nd rounders in 2003...

If anyone can find a line by line trade history of the Patriots in the draft, I would think it would be really interesting to see if the Pats have indeed been employing this strategy for years.
 
CK...good points and sound logic...as far as Wright goes, I would still question even a 3rd round for him...afterall, he was a backup at USC...not a starter...Granted, there were a few pretty good guys in front of him. However, we do have a coach (I forget who) that was on the SC staff last year so we may have an edge and if Saban does expend a 3rd rounder for him, he must have some info we don't. He is not the "panicky" type of coach given our DT situation (like our previous staff)...Still, 3rd rounder is a little high for a "project" to me....
 
ckparrothead said:
As a sidebar to this issue of what a draft pick in a future year is worth in terms of present draft picks, imagine this scenario:

The current thinking is that a 2nd rounder now, is worth a 1st rounder in the future. A 3rd rounder now, is worth a future 2nd round, etc. As an experiment, let's say that one year you decided to give up your current 3rd round pick, for a future 2nd round pick. Then, the following year you have a 1st, two 2nds, and a 3rd. So, since you've got two 2nds, you decide to give up this year's 3rd rounder, again, for a future 2nd round pick. Let's say you develop a habit of this strategy, and it goes on for eternity. What happens? Theoretically, you will be giving up a present 3rd round pick, and in exchange you will be afforded a PERMANENT draft allocation change to where you no longer are allocated a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the first day, but rather, a 1st, 2nd, and 2nd. Forever.

Wouldn't that be worth a present 3rd rounder? To pick twice in the 2nd round, instead of once in the 2nd and once in the 3rd, for the rest of eternity?

Keep an eye on Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli in New England. I believe they have this theory in practice. I've seen them trade a present 3rd rounder for a future 2nd rounder twice now...once to Miami (which we used I believe on Wade Smith), and once this year I think to Arizona. I suspect they also may have done the same thing in 2002, since my fact checking on NFL.com shows that they are missing a 3rd round pick in 2002, and suspiciously had two 2nd rounders in 2003...

If anyone can find a line by line trade history of the Patriots in the draft, I would think it would be really interesting to see if the Pats have indeed been employing this strategy for years.
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That's quite the "sidebar".

I'm not sure if you could do it consistently every year indefinitely, since you'd obviously need a willing trade partner, every year, willing to give a future 2nd for YOUR current 3rd.
But, on an opportunistic basis (do when/if you can), it would work, and be a good strategy, I think.
 
I don't know if that was meant to be a reailstic strategy so much as a method of pointing out the flaw in the thinking that says that a 3rd rounder today is worth a 2nd rounder next year.
 
ckparrothead said:
I don't know if that was meant to be a reailstic strategy so much as a method of pointing out the flaw in the thinking that says that a 3rd rounder today is worth a 2nd rounder next year.
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Think of it this way:

If Team A wants your current 3rd round pick.........what do you want in return--if all they have is future picks to trade?

You would NOT want Team A's next year's 3rd round pick........since you have to:
1) wait a year to use it; and
2) it could be a lower 3rd round pick than what you're giving up.

So, you'd want Team A's 2006 2nd round pick.......to make it worth your time to trade away your current 3rd.

That's why a current year pick = next year's pick (one round higher)

But I agree with you that it's a good deal to move up a round next year........in the long run (but you have to be willing to wait).
Prime current example = Washington got Denver's #25 overall for Washington's 2006 1st rounder (probably a top 15 pick :eek: )
 
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