Manuel Wright in the 3rd Guarantee.

[Dol-Fan Dupree]

A more pertinent question would be, would you have drafted Manuel Wright in the 3rd round of this year's draft? Channing Crowder or Manuel Wright, which one would you have taken? Some would argue that if we were applying it to this year's draft the question would be would you have drafted him in the 4th round, because a 4th rounder this year = a 3rd rounder in 2006. As you may have seen me say before, I believe this line of thinking to be flawed. I wish we could know what the relative value of next year's draft of players will be as a whole compared to this year's draft of players, but we don't know anything about next year's draft of players, so the best indication we have is this year's draft of players.

So, Channing Crowder or Manuel Wright? Which one would you have taken?

I guess that is where we disagree because we can have both this year.

Basically Miami has a bunch of scouts who are paid to at least speculate about the Defensive tackles and have a good idea on how strong the draft will be next year.

I think the thought will be do you think when the third pick comes up in next years draft will you wish you had that third pick or are you going to be happy with Wright. It is a gamble. It could be Wright has enough talent that he would be a first round pick next year if he was eligible to play. Also it could turn out that he is a piece of poo.

Of course also don't think the 3rd is worth a 2nd next year kind of thinking is a flaw. I think it is a reality. It can get you into trouble however that is how the world works. Like a loan, you take 100 dollars now but that 100 dollars is going to cost you 150 in a year. Too many loans and credit cards can get you into trouble.

 

[Mike13]

Lets hope we get him, my qusetion is what do we do if we dont nab him?

 

[jlfin]

I'm still not sure about Wright...
Everyone's on the bandwagon and we do need a DT, but is it right to spend a future third round pick out of despair? The guy still needs a hell of a lot of coaching and might not get to play at all this year.

Draft picks are eventually used to acquire real human beings. If he didn't have some academic issues, he would have stayed at USC and been in the draft in 2006. If he has the talent level of a 3rd rd pick, then the answer to your question is yes. I can't honestly say, because I've never seen him play. I think Mueller and Saban have probably looked at every game film on him and have determined how much they are willing to give up for him. I will just have to trust their evaluations.

 

[jlfin]

Our 3rd rounder next year will be in the middle to latter half of the 3rd round. Crowder was an early 3rd rd selection. I figure the Phins will go at least 8-8. So, basically they would be giving up a mid to late 3rd rd pick for Wright.

 

[Den54]

Does Norman Hand have anything left in the tank and is he still available?
If so we could save our pick for next year.

 

[ckparrothead]

Think of it this way:

If Team A wants your current 3rd round pick.........what do you want in return--if all they have is future picks to trade?

You would NOT want Team A's next year's 3rd round pick........since you have to:
1) wait a year to use it; and
2) it could be a lower 3rd round pick than what you're giving up.

So, you'd want Team A's 2006 2nd round pick.......to make it worth your time to trade away your current 3rd.

That's why a current year pick = next year's pick (one round higher)

But I agree with you that it's a good deal to move up a round next year........in the long run (but you have to be willing to wait).
Prime current example = Washington got Denver's #25 overall for Washington's 2006 1st rounder (probably a top 15 pick :eek: )

But your formula makes the false assumption that the present has more value than the future. Yes, the draft pick we make now contributes a year earlier than the draft pick we pick a year from now. But, he also retires, on average, a year earlier than the draft pick we make a year from now. The assumption that the present years are more important than future years is false, unless there is specific reason for that to be true. As I stated in a different thread a while ago, three years from now is just as important as one year from now, when we get to three years from now. It will be no different in the fans' eyes. We all want to win now. Exceptions to this rule are few and far between.

In summary, no, the draft pick in the future does not quite have the same value as the present one, but that has more to do with the uncertainty surrounding the value of the pick (as measured by the quality of players in the draft, as well as the selection order). Uncertainty generally has negative value to risk-averse people. That's fine. But, my point is that if it becomes generally accepted that this uncertainty = one round higher of a future pick, then yes, some shrewd team could use that to give away one 3rd round pick now, and in return get the opportunity to pick twice in the second round...forever.

And as for the bank loan example, that's not accurate. Money has time value. First off, inflation makes up a certain percentage of interest rates. Second, the time value of money reflects money's ability accumulate more wealth through investment. Draft picks in the NFL can help a team accumulate talent and get better, but never PERMANENTLY. So, the time value of draft picks is actually zero.

 

[Dphins4me]

A source close to USC defensive tackle Manuel Wright – the top talent in next month's supplemental draft – said Wright has been given a guarantee by an undisclosed AFC team that he will be selected in the third round. Speculation has it that the team is either Cincinnati or Miami.

A source close to Wright.

Might it be his agent?

Trying to get another team to panic and spend a higher pick on his then he deserves.

Besides we all know how guarantees work in the NFL. Its only a guarantee after the fact.

 

[Dphins4me]

But your formula makes the false assumption that the present has more value than the future. Yes, the draft pick we make now contributes a year earlier than the draft pick we pick a year from now. But, he also retires, on average, a year earlier than the draft pick we make a year from now.

Retires?

How many NFL players actually retire from the game? Most simply never get another job and are forced to seek employment elsewhere.

 

[Dphins4me]

Our 3rd rounder next year will be in the middle to latter half of the 3rd round. Crowder was an early 3rd rd selection. I figure the Phins will go at least 8-8. So, basically they would be giving up a mid to late 3rd rd pick for Wright.

What most said about the 2nd traded for AJ. Look where it ended up.

You never know how the season will play out. Miami could end up with the No. 1 pick or they could end up with a SB ring. You simply never know.

That is why they play the games.

 

[Dphins4me]

I don't know if that was meant to be a reailstic strategy so much as a method of pointing out the flaw in the thinking that says that a 3rd rounder today is worth a 2nd rounder next year.

You have to pay interest to the other team. If not another pick in the current draft then its a Rd. bump next year.

 

[ckparrothead]

You have to pay interest to the other team. If not another pick in the current draft then its a Rd. bump next year.

See my later post. In an economic sense, I've shown why money has time value but draft picks do not. Though people insist on using the "borrowing money" allegory to describe trading a future draft pick for a current one, in actuality the underlying assumptions in a money-lending situation do not apply in the NFL with trading draft picks.

 

[Dol-Fan Dupree]

See my later post. In an economic sense, I've shown why money has time value but draft picks do not. Though people insist on using the "borrowing money" allegory to describe trading a future draft pick for a current one, in actuality the underlying assumptions in a money-lending situation do not apply in the NFL with trading draft picks.

You shown nothing. Why would you trade a 2nd round pick for a 2nd round pick next year. That does not make any sense.

It is not that the draft pick is worth more. It is that you have to spend more in the future to get what you want now. It is a very simple concept.

 

[MarinoNotElway]

Why does everyone have such a hard on for this guy? He is only 290 lbs, and he wasnt a full time starter at USC. He would get pushed around in the 4-3 against the run! He couldnt play Nose in the 3-4, might be good at end. I dont like the idea of him coming, unless Saban wants to make him an end in the 3-4.

 

[ckparrothead]

You shown nothing. Why would you trade a 2nd round pick for a 2nd round pick next year. That does not make any sense.

It is not that the draft pick is worth more. It is that you have to spend more in the future to get what you want now. It is a very simple concept.

The world being flat because you can walk forever and not feel the world curving round and round, was also a simple concept. That didn't make it true.

I guess it would only make sense to an economist, or someone who works in finance. Present value of money is worth more than future value of money because of the time value of money, based on the power of money to create permanent future wealth through investment.

In the NFL, draft picks do not compare the same with money in real life. A draft pick now allows you to accumulate talent now, a draft pick later allows you to accumulate talent later. The stock of talent on your roster now does not give you some magical ability to continue to stock up on talent later. If anything, when you stock up on talent now, you ensure that you will not have the ability to stock up on more talent later, as your draft selection order suffers, and you end up having to pay or lose quality players in free agency.

Where I see that trading a present draft pick for an equivolent future one, is merely a time shift in the long run of an NFL franchise, you see it as a loss in value. Inherent in that argument is that now is more important, or more valuable than the future. I would argue that this is not true, specifically because there is no time value of draft picks, as I've stated. Though fans would give the illusion of thinking the present is more important than the future, this is false because the future will be just as important to those fans when the future becomes the present.

 

[GrnMtnMan]

Still, 3rd rounder is a little high for a "project" to me....

Teams were drafting "projects" in the teens this year. A third is probably a safe selection although I would rather pass on the guy who flunked off the team. One has to question his work ethic and attitude.