The reason that a pick now is worth more than a equivalent pick later is because it allows a team to address a need one year earlier.
Again, inherent in YOUR argument is the notion that draft picks have
time value. What I am saying to you, is that, while money obviously does have time value, NFL draft picks do not. I might as well say to you "The reason a draft pick later is worth more than an equivalent draft pick now is because it allows a team to address a need one year later." If there is no time value to a draft pick, then there is also no reason why a present pick is worth more than a future equivalent one, aside from uncertainty. That does not mean that if someone offers you a future 3rd for your present 3rd that you should take it. I know what my Ford P.O.S. car is worth on the market (practically nothing), but if someone offers me that amount for it, that does not mean I'm going to take it. But, the fact that I'm not taking the deal also doesn't mean it is worth more than the guy offered me on the market.
If you believe in a fantasy world of make believe and unicorns. The future would be worth the same as the present if you were trading known for known. However you are trading known for unknown. You don't really know where you are going to pick. You don't really know the strength of the draft. you don't even know what positions will be of need. Heck, you don't even know if you are going to have a job. You being the football coach. Unless you are the type to trade a 1 in 5 chance equally with a 1 in 10 chance.
I believe you need to scroll up and read post #52. In it I state the following:
In summary, no, the draft pick in the future does not quite have the same value as the present one, but that has more to do with the uncertainty surrounding the value of the pick (as measured by the quality of players in the draft, as well as the selection order). Uncertainty generally has negative value to risk-averse people. That's fine. But, my point is that if it becomes generally accepted that this uncertainty = one round higher of a future pick, then yes, some shrewd team could use that to give away one 3rd round pick now, and in return get the opportunity to pick twice in the second round...forever.
So, since my position is and has always been that draft picks do not have time value, and yet the market for them among GM owners has consistently shown a preference for time value, and you are no longer disagreeing with me, I guess I am done with you.
Now, I'm not a econ major or anything, but If I borrow 100 dollars from you and have to pay you back next year at the same time. You will want more than 100 dollars back correct?
So if I want the No. 30 pick in the draft, and will not pay you back until the same time next year, then you will want more back correct?
Looks to be pretty cut & dried. Like I said, I'm not a econ major.
You don't have to be an econ major to understand the scenario you gave. You're absolutely right, about that scenario. You chose that scenario as an example, the money borrowing scenario, because you believe it applies the same way to the NFL and trading draft picks. What I am trying to say to you right now, is that scenario is not equivalent. The money borrowing scenario, and REAL markets, have a few underlying assumptions that the NFL fake market does not.
Everyone keeps using the money comparison. If you give me a dollar now, I'm going to have to give you a dollar plus something in the future for the right to have that dollar now. That makes sense, always has. But I am telling you that the dynamics are different in this NFL "game" than they are in normal everyday life and markets. So basically, everyone goes by the "dollar" scenario, because they are use to it. You give a professional bowler a round ball with three holes, and he's going to look at it like its a bowling ball, and evaluate its worth like it is a bowling ball, even though it might actually be something else.
The NFL, its competitions, its drafts, its offseasons and its rules, are a game. Buit, this game is not a perfect microcosm of the world or its markets, even though they consistently resemble one.
The reason decision makers in the NFL constently show a preference for time value in draft picks are personal ones. The coach and GM have 3 year contracts, and have to win right now otherwise he get das boot. This creates the opportunity for ADVANTAGE to any team who has a set of coach and GM that they know they will have for a long time. If your coach and GM have great job security, they are free to make the long term decisions that will benefit the franchise for a very long time.
One of those long term decisions could easily be, as I've illustrated, giving away a present 3rd rounder, and therefore improving your third round draft position by a whole round every year for as long as you keep finding suckers who want a present pick and are willing to give away a future one that is one round higher, or something close to it.
