Miami Dolphins’ current view of Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert might surprise you

[fansinceGWilson]

He could very well put it together in the NFL and be an elite QB because he has the tools to do so. I just wouldn't be the one to take the chance. I do think that if both Burrow and Tua are gone because we weren't able to trade up, we'll take Herbert at 5 (more likely that we trade up to 4). I will root for him to succeed, but I just hope they don't fall into the same trap that they did with Tannehill and waste years wondering if he's "that guy".

No offense to anyone here, but after a fairly significant search, I can't find a mock where Herbert isn't the 3rd QB taken or taken after top 10. Can't find a ranking that has him less the 3rd best QB. If I'm forced to go with some here, or, every mock/analysis/ranking, I'm going with the later. Doesn't mean Herbert will be a top 10 QB, but I struggle with going against a unanimous group. Full disclosure: I want an elite QB, but I'll take top 10

 

[Mach2]

No offense to anyone here, but after a fairly significant search, I can't find a mock where Herbert isn't the 3rd QB taken or taken after top 10. Can't find a ranking that has him less the 3rd best QB. If I'm forced to go with some here, or, every mock/analysis/ranking, I'm going with the later. Doesn't mean Herbert will be a top 10 QB, but I struggle with going against a unanimous group. Full disclosure: I want an elite QB, but I'll take top 10

As we have discussed before, "elite" lacks a finite definition, but I would say, off the top of my head, there are, on average, maybe 3 or 4 elite guys in the league at any given time, with a career that spans a decade+.

That tells me they are few, and far between.

Elite would be awesome, but top 10 is far more likely.

To a certain extent, it's a chicken or egg question anyway.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

As we have discussed before, "elite" lacks a finite definition, but I would say, off the top of my head, there are, on average, maybe 3 or 4 elite guys in the league at any given time, with a career that spans a decade+.

That tells me they are few, and far between.

Elite would be awesome, but top 10 is far more likely.

To a certain extent, it's a chicken or egg question anyway.

DING, DING!!!! At times it seems folks have 8-10 elite guys in the league.

we get some pretty amusing thoughts around here. 'Get a QB every year and keep trying til you get an elite QB.' And how many teams do that? People like to throw up Rosen and Murray as an example, conveniently forgetting AZ's draft hx the previous years. Teams with above average QBs RARELY draft a QB in R1 unless their current QB is looking retirement in the eye or the team is so good, they can afford a flyer. There's a reason for that. It's difficult to get an average QB, much less top 10.

Burrow and Tua have a very good chance of being elite. Actual success awaits the cold eye of experience. Herbert, IMO, has a very good shot at top 10. Given the last 2 decades, I'll be happy with top 10 AND a top HC

 

[Geordie]

No offense to anyone here, but after a fairly significant search, I can't find a mock where Herbert isn't the 3rd QB taken or taken after top 10. Can't find a ranking that has him less the 3rd best QB. If I'm forced to go with some here, or, every mock/analysis/ranking, I'm going with the later. Doesn't mean Herbert will be a top 10 QB, but I struggle with going against a unanimous group. Full disclosure: I want an elite QB, but I'll take top 10

Herbert is absolutely the 3rd best QB in this draft, no question about that in my mind. When he goes off the board though will all depend on fit, someone like Love could well go ahead of him merely because a team feels he fits them better. If Miami for example are going with a quick decision making, throwing with anticipation game, which we are likely to considering the hire at OC then Herbert is probably not a great fit for us and Love is perhaps a better choice if the ideal guy, Tua, is gone.

Daniel Jones last year was no where near QB #2, yet that's where he went at #6 to the Giants. Haskins and then Lock for me should have been the order after Murray of course. The Giants thought though that Jones fit them best and therefore took him way too early in my view, ahead of clearly better prospects. Think the Broncos got a steal on Lock in the second round personally. I'm sure the same thing will happen again this year, Love and Eason for example could go ahead of QB's that they shouldn't.

My top 5 order for is QBs:

1. Tua
2. Burrow
3. Herbert
4. Love
5. Hurts

If I were drafting for Miami though that order would differ:

1. Tua
2. Burrow
3. Love
4. Fromm
5. Gordon

I don't think Herbert and Hurts are quick enough processors to excel in the system we are probably going to adopt. If we picked either of those two we would have to adapt our offense to their style, I wouldn't be totally against that approach if that's the route they want to go, but I wouldn't be on board with them taking one of those guys then trying to shove square pegs into round holes. The NFL seems to have matured recently to the point where teams are prepared to go with that approach, most notably with Mahomes in KC, Jackson in Balt and Murray in Zona. All three of these guys have been put in positions to succeed rather than to fail, whomever we go with, hopefully we adopt that same approach.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Herbert is absolutely the 3rd best QB in this draft, no question about that in my mind. When he goes off the board though will all depend on fit, someone like Love could well go ahead of him merely because a team feels he fits them better. If Miami for example are going with a quick decision making, throwing with anticipation game, which we are likely to considering the hire at OC then Herbert is probably not a great fit for us and Love is perhaps a better choice if the ideal guy, Tua, is gone.

Daniel Jones last year was no where near QB #2, yet that's where he went at #6 to the Giants. Haskins and then Lock for me should have been the order after Murray of course. The Giants thought though that Jones fit them best and therefore took him way too early in my view, ahead of clearly better prospects. Think the Broncos got a steal on Lock in the second round personally. I'm sure the same thing will happen again this year, Love and Eason for example could go ahead of QB's that they shouldn't.

My top 5 order for is QBs:

1. Tua
2. Burrow
3. Herbert
4. Love
5. Hurts

If I were drafting for Miami though that order would differ:

1. Tua
2. Burrow
3. Love
4. Fromm
5. Gordon

I don't think Herbert and Hurts are quick enough processors to excel in the system we are probably going to adopt. If we picked either of those two we would have to adapt our offense to their style, I wouldn't be totally against that approach if that's the route they want to go, but I wouldn't be on board with them taking one of those guys then trying to shove square pegs into round holes. The NFL seems to have matured recently to the point where teams are prepared to go with that approach, most notably with Mahomes in KC, Jackson in Balt and Murray in Zona. All three of these guys have been put in positions to succeed rather than to fail, whomever we go with, hopefully we adopt that same approach.

I follow ZERO college, except when my home state team (WVU) gets to a bowl game, so I can't evaluate any player. You're right, individual teams make decisions on players on criteria other than raw talent and stats. My point was refuting those who, by posts, seem to see Herbert as a UDFA for a team other than Miami (I'm exaggerating a little). I have no problem with anyone having a favorite target, but as someone said, some posters seem so concerned Miami will take Herbert they think posting strident comments here will change Miami's board

 

[The Goat]

Herbert is absolutely the 3rd best QB in this draft, no question about that in my mind. When he goes off the board though will all depend on fit, someone like Love could well go ahead of him merely because a team feels he fits them better. If Miami for example are going with a quick decision making, throwing with anticipation game, which we are likely to considering the hire at OC then Herbert is probably not a great fit for us and Love is perhaps a better choice if the ideal guy, Tua, is gone.

Daniel Jones last year was no where near QB #2, yet that's where he went at #6 to the Giants. Haskins and then Lock for me should have been the order after Murray of course. The Giants thought though that Jones fit them best and therefore took him way too early in my view, ahead of clearly better prospects. Think the Broncos got a steal on Lock in the second round personally. I'm sure the same thing will happen again this year, Love and Eason for example could go ahead of QB's that they shouldn't.

My top 5 order for is QBs:

1. Tua
2. Burrow
3. Herbert
4. Love
5. Hurts

If I were drafting for Miami though that order would differ:

1. Tua
2. Burrow
3. Love
4. Fromm
5. Gordon

I don't think Herbert and Hurts are quick enough processors to excel in the system we are probably going to adopt. If we picked either of those two we would have to adapt our offense to their style, I wouldn't be totally against that approach if that's the route they want to go, but I wouldn't be on board with them taking one of those guys then trying to shove square pegs into round holes. The NFL seems to have matured recently to the point where teams are prepared to go with that approach, most notably with Mahomes in KC, Jackson in Balt and Murray in Zona. All three of these guys have been put in positions to succeed rather than to fail, whomever we go with, hopefully we adopt that same approach.

I really like the way you ranked them as far as overall vs. fit. And I agree with it for the most part, except that I'd have Fromm #3 on both lists; I simply feel he has a higher floor than anyone other than Tua or Burrow.

Regarding the consensus on Herbert being almost unanimously the #3 QB taken...it's because his ceiling is so damn high. But what I really don't understand is people who hated Tannehill...who love Herbert. Their weaknesses are similar.

 

[Kamelion4291]

DING, DING!!!! At times it seems folks have 8-10 elite guys in the league.

we get some pretty amusing thoughts around here. 'Get a QB every year and keep trying til you get an elite QB.' And how many teams do that? People like to throw up Rosen and Murray as an example, conveniently forgetting AZ's draft hx the previous years. Teams with above average QBs RARELY draft a QB in R1 unless their current QB is looking retirement in the eye or the team is so good, they can afford a flyer. There's a reason for that. It's difficult to get an average QB, much less top 10.

Burrow and Tua have a very good chance of being elite. Actual success awaits the cold eye of experience. Herbert, IMO, has a very good shot at top 10. Given the last 2 decades, I'll be happy with top 10 AND a top HC

Personally, I consider elite as a QB who opposing defensive coordinators have to game plan against explicitly or they risk losing outright.

In my opinion that means that Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Jackson, Mahomes, Watson, Brees, Rivers before this year, Big Ben, and maybe Matt Ryan. It's not so much comparing your QB to their peers and saying "Oh, we have a top 3-4 so therefore he's 'elite'." That's 10 QBs I mentioned so the question to me is whether Herbert being "top 10" means that he's within this caliber and from what I've seen in college, I wouldn't bet on it. The rest of the QBs are either game managers or bad. If he ends up being there? Fine, I'll gladly take it. Build a strong team around him and you can win big.

I don't care if there were 32 QBs in the league that fits that criteria. I just want a dangerous QB.

 

[Geordie]

I follow ZERO college, except when my home state team (WVU) gets to a bowl game, so I can't evaluate any player. You're right, individual teams make decisions on players on criteria other than raw talent and stats. My point was refuting those who, by posts, seem to see Herbert as a UDFA for a team other than Miami (I'm exaggerating a little). I have no problem with anyone having a favorite target, but as someone said, some posters seem so concerned Miami will take Herbert they think posting strident comments here will change Miami's board

There are folks that really dislike Herbert, and I get that, it's fine. Even if you dislike him though that physical tool set he has and his clean cut, high IQ (won the academic Heisman) persona makes him unquestionably an extremely tempting piece of clay to mold. Honestly with the way egos are in the NFL, it would be a huge shock if he fell out of the top 10, anyone thinking he is going UDFA is certifiably insane :)

IF Miami take Herbert, I wouldn't hate it unless we refuse to install an offense that fits the player and try to do it the other way around, in many ways that was part of the failing of Tanny here.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Personally, I consider elite as a QB who opposing defensive coordinators have to game plan against explicitly or they risk losing outright.

In my opinion that means that Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Jackson, Mahomes, Watson, Brees, Rivers before this year, Big Ben, and maybe Matt Ryan. It's not so much comparing your QB to their peers and saying "Oh, we have a top 3-4 so therefore he's 'elite'." That's 10 QBs I mentioned so the question to me is whether Herbert being "top 10" means that he's within this caliber and from what I've seen in college, I wouldn't bet on it. The rest of the QBs are either game managers or bad. If he ends up being there? Fine, I'll gladly take it. Build a strong team around him and you can win big.

I don't care if there were 32 QBs in the league that fits that criteria. I just want a dangerous QB.

Oh, now your going to get me flamed. To me, elite QBs in '19 . . . Brees and Rodgers, That's it. Brady looked good, but not 'elite.' Ben? He's always been bubble elite to me. Wilson, Mahommes, Jackson, Watson? Too young to know, although all look like they're headed there. Pesonally, I think " game plan against explicitly or they risk losing outright" is too generous. I suspect teams game planned against RF - not because he's elite, but because there wasn't much else. Teams with weak or non-existent run games tend to have opposing DCs decide 'well focus on the QB, since we don't fear the run.'

To be fair, I have no definition of "elite." Probably something similar to pornography - I know it when I see it. Obviously, one criteria is consistent success over time, which is why Mahommes doesn't make the list.

That said, I'll take 'top 10' and 'elite' as a definition. Yeah, I think Herbert can get there. Will he? Hard to say. It takes more than a QB to get to top 10. A LOT more. How many of your top 10 have a top HC?

 

[Kamelion4291]

Oh, now your going to get me flamed. To me, elite QBs in '19 . . . Brees and Rodgers, That's it. Brady looked good, but not 'elite.' Ben? He's always been bubble elite to me. Wilson, Mahommes, Jackson, Watson? Too young to know, although all look like they're headed there. Pesonally, I think " game plan against explicitly or they risk losing outright" is too generous. I suspect teams game planned against RF - not because he's elite, but because there wasn't much else. Teams with weak or non-existent run games tend to have opposing DCs decide 'well focus on the QB, since we don't fear the run.'

To be fair, I have no definition of "elite." Probably something similar to pornography - I know it when I see it. Obviously, one criteria is consistent success over time, which is why Mahommes doesn't make the list.

That said, I'll take 'top 10' and 'elite' as a definition. Yeah, I think Herbert can get there. Will he? Hard to say. It takes more than a QB to get to top 10. A LOT more. How many of your top 10 have a top HC?

Have you ever seen a QB come out of college that had never played "great" all of a sudden put up stretches of "great" in the NFL? I can't think of any off the top of my head which is why I don't want Herbert. I think his ceiling is lower than many other people apparently. He has the physical tools, but he doesn't have the mental ones.

 

[Avigatorx]

Have you ever seen a QB come out of college that had never played "great" all of a sudden put up stretches of "great" in the NFL? I can't think of any off the top of my head which is why I don't want Herbert. I think his ceiling is lower than many other people apparently. He has the physical tools, but he doesn't have the mental ones.

Brady comes to mind, but im sure we can all agree, he is a rare exception.

 

[Mach2]

Brady comes to mind, but im sure we can all agree, he is a rare exception.

He surely is an exception, but to be realistic, he didn't become "elite" all of the sudden. He was always a guy who made few mistakes, but he developed over the course of a few years.

After taking over for Drew, he ran a conservative, game manager type O, until he proved to BB that he could do more and more.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Have you ever seen a QB come out of college that had never played "great" all of a sudden put up stretches of "great" in the NFL? I can't think of any off the top of my head which is why I don't want Herbert. I think his ceiling is lower than many other people apparently. He has the physical tools, but he doesn't have the mental ones.

Wasn't there a guy a few years ago who was backup in college, but made the pros? Not saying he became 'elite,' but it seems he started for a while.

 

[Zounds]

Wasn't there a guy a few years ago who was backup in college, but made the pros? Not saying he became 'elite,' but it seems he started for a while.

Matt Cassel. He definitely overachieved but was never a top 15 QB imo.

 

[Rev Kev]

Brady comes to mind, but im sure we can all agree, he is a rare exception.

D carried him a bit initially