LoneStarPhin
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Yes, I know it’s “just win, baby, and let the rest take care of itself.” This is just an overview to assist in who and how you might want to root in next few weeks if you havent yet sliced and diced it.
We have three winnable games. Also, three losable. VERY outside chance of winning Div outright if Pats stumble @ Pitt and get shocked at home by Buff or Jets and we win out.
1. Chargers sit at 10-3. we give them or KC the first wild card. That leaves Pitt/Balt, Indy, Titans, Denver as our four competitors for last spot. All are 7-6 except Pitt 7-5-1 and Denv 6-7.
2. We hold tiebreaker over Titans due to our W and will likely root for them to beat Indy @Titans in game 16. Also in any 3 way, the best Conf record they can get is 6-6. they also play @ NY Giants (a suddenly hot team) then Redskins.
3. Indy has tiebreaker over us do to their W, but their best possible conf record is 7-5 in case of a 3 way no winner. So even a W in last week at Titans leave us with chance due to two hard home games- Dallas in game 14 and hot Giants in game 15.
4. Denver at 6-7, but we include them here realistically due to 3 winnable closing games Cleveland, @ Oakland, Chargers. Chargers winnable as they’ll likely have a wild card sewn up by game 16 and may not ball out on road. Best conf record for Denver is 7-5.
5. Our Nemesis Baltimore is battling Pitt for Division. They have Tampa Bay, @ Chargers, Cleveland. their best possible conf record is 8-4. This Sunday will tell us which way to root. If they win their division, Miami would not play them in first round. yay!
6. Pitt is 7-5-1. They have brutal finish Pats, @Saints, Bengals. Conf record is bad with best possible 6-5-1 so we will match up well in tiebreaker, unlike Balt. EDIT- due to tie, we likely wont be in tiebreaker. They either win 2 and win either their Div or Wild Card (unless someone goes 10-6) or they lose 2 and are out of it.
7. Miami has a few good things going for it- 6-4 conf record, all games left vs losing records. @MN, Jax, @ Buff. Maybe the toughest game (MN) is not a conf game, so wins over Jax and Buff put us at 9-7 with an 8-4 conf record.
A streaking Baltimore doesnt hurt fins as much as Pitt will have a tough time finishing 2-1. Also, Baltimore at Chargers is great opp for Fins to pick up the tiebreaker conf record vs Balt even if we lose to Vikings.
TIEBREAKER NOTE: Ravens beat both Denver and Titans, so we dont want a tiebreaker with Ravens plus either of those or Ravens go.
Bottom line- several things line up well for miami right now on paper if we can manage to beat Jax and Buff.
This is a battered team, but not a defeated team. Here’s hoping that the Miami Miracle will provide lasting juice to get us over the hump!
We have three winnable games. Also, three losable. VERY outside chance of winning Div outright if Pats stumble @ Pitt and get shocked at home by Buff or Jets and we win out.
1. Chargers sit at 10-3. we give them or KC the first wild card. That leaves Pitt/Balt, Indy, Titans, Denver as our four competitors for last spot. All are 7-6 except Pitt 7-5-1 and Denv 6-7.
2. We hold tiebreaker over Titans due to our W and will likely root for them to beat Indy @Titans in game 16. Also in any 3 way, the best Conf record they can get is 6-6. they also play @ NY Giants (a suddenly hot team) then Redskins.
3. Indy has tiebreaker over us do to their W, but their best possible conf record is 7-5 in case of a 3 way no winner. So even a W in last week at Titans leave us with chance due to two hard home games- Dallas in game 14 and hot Giants in game 15.
4. Denver at 6-7, but we include them here realistically due to 3 winnable closing games Cleveland, @ Oakland, Chargers. Chargers winnable as they’ll likely have a wild card sewn up by game 16 and may not ball out on road. Best conf record for Denver is 7-5.
5. Our Nemesis Baltimore is battling Pitt for Division. They have Tampa Bay, @ Chargers, Cleveland. their best possible conf record is 8-4. This Sunday will tell us which way to root. If they win their division, Miami would not play them in first round. yay!
6. Pitt is 7-5-1. They have brutal finish Pats, @Saints, Bengals. Conf record is bad with best possible 6-5-1 so we will match up well in tiebreaker, unlike Balt. EDIT- due to tie, we likely wont be in tiebreaker. They either win 2 and win either their Div or Wild Card (unless someone goes 10-6) or they lose 2 and are out of it.
7. Miami has a few good things going for it- 6-4 conf record, all games left vs losing records. @MN, Jax, @ Buff. Maybe the toughest game (MN) is not a conf game, so wins over Jax and Buff put us at 9-7 with an 8-4 conf record.
A streaking Baltimore doesnt hurt fins as much as Pitt will have a tough time finishing 2-1. Also, Baltimore at Chargers is great opp for Fins to pick up the tiebreaker conf record vs Balt even if we lose to Vikings.
TIEBREAKER NOTE: Ravens beat both Denver and Titans, so we dont want a tiebreaker with Ravens plus either of those or Ravens go.
Bottom line- several things line up well for miami right now on paper if we can manage to beat Jax and Buff.
This is a battered team, but not a defeated team. Here’s hoping that the Miami Miracle will provide lasting juice to get us over the hump!
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