Qb Next Year

[AgentXof12]

2-14 in a weaker division with a more talented team than Cutler had here? Sure thing.

I'm inclined to agree with you... if players are allowed to run wild freelancing and the defense isn't being coached well, any team can land at 2-14. Now, whether that is deliberate on the coaches, or the Colts players collectively decided it behind their backs is another story. That team, though, appeared to Suck for Luck that year.

 

[phins_4_ever]

2-14 in a weaker division with a more talented team than Cutler had here? Sure thing.

The defense sucked as it did in 2010 and in 2012. There was not much of a drop off. It simply shows that QBs do matter. That's all there is to it. I gave you and others plenty of reasons why there was no conspiracy and why this whole "suck for luck" was an invention by fans. If you want to believe otherwise so be it.

You can find QBs anywhere and anytime. Often it is not your draft position but your ability to evaluate QBs. Rodgers came with a load of baggage. He was drafted late in the first round. For two years (or so) the training staff at Green Bay worked on his mechanics. During the first 3 years and his occasional clean up duty not even Packers fans thought that he would be the heir to Favre. Believe me, some of my relatives are Packers fans up in Wisconsin.
Heck Favre himself was a second round pick and a backup in Atlanta before he got a shot with Green Bay.

Having the #1 pick or a top 10 pick does not guarantee you a franchise QB much less a Superbowl win.

 

[phins_4_ever]

So the Dolphins could offer Tannehill a restructure that he probably won't accept. Provided he passes, they can then cut him to realize the cap savings. For lack of anyone better than Tannehill available to draft or sign, what is likely to happen? They would have to roll the dice at QB, and as you have shown a team can suck without a QB. Use the funds to build out the rest of the roster until the 2020 draft.

You got me. There are rules to extensions. A contract can only be extended and redone a certain number I believe. Plus we just redone his contract last year and I am not sure if we can do it a year later again. But I am not an expert on contracts in the NFL. I just read snippets over the years.

 

[Gonzo]

The defense sucked as it did in 2010 and in 2012. There was not much of a drop off. It simply shows that QBs do matter. That's all there is to it. I gave you and others plenty of reasons why there was no conspiracy and why this whole "suck for luck" was an invention by fans. If you want to believe otherwise so be it.

You can find QBs anywhere and anytime. Often it is not your draft position but your ability to evaluate QBs. Rodgers came with a load of baggage. He was drafted late in the first round. For two years (or so) the training staff at Green Bay worked on his mechanics. During the first 3 years and his occasional clean up duty not even Packers fans thought that he would be the heir to Favre. Believe me, some of my relatives are Packers fans up in Wisconsin.
Heck Favre himself was a second round pick and a backup in Atlanta before he got a shot with Green Bay.

Having the #1 pick or a top 10 pick does not guarantee you a franchise QB much less a Superbowl win.

Alrighty. Well, even if they didn't Suck for Luck (they did), I fully support tanking if we miss the playoffs again.

And you are more likely to land a franchise QB early in the draft ("guarantee" is such a dumb word in these discussions). That's already been proven multiple times, regardless of the exceptions you name. It's not even debatable.

 

[phins_4_ever]

I'm inclined to agree with you... if players are allowed to run wild freelancing and the defense isn't being coached well, any team can land at 2-14. Now, whether that is deliberate on the coaches, or the Colts players collectively decided it behind their backs is another story. That team, though, appeared to Suck for Luck that year.

But why would the owner than collectively fire the entire side of the football operation after the season if they put players purposely in positions to fail. These decisions to fail are not made on a coach level or GM level and has to be made by the ownership.

 

[phins_4_ever]

Alrighty. Well, even if they didn't Suck for Luck (they did), I fully support tanking if we miss the playoffs again.

And you are more likely to land a franchise QB early in the draft ("guarantee" is such a dumb word in these discussions). That's already been proven multiple times, regardless of the exceptions you name. It's not even debatable.

Guarantee is as dumb as the word tanking.

 

[Gonzo]

Guarantee is as dumb as the word tanking.

This guy did the same thing I did a few years ago (though for all positions). Easier than trying to find that one, so here ya go:

So now we get to the table showing the the success rate by round - and I have broken the 1st round into high (1-16) and low (17-32).

QB's drafted 1990-2016
pick success %
1-16 81%
17-32 65%
2nd round 48%
3rd round 25%
4th round 13%
5th round 6%
6th round 16%
7th round 6%

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

Hall of Famers:
13 drafted in the 1st round vs 14 drafted in ALL other rounds and free agency. Only 2 of the latter were drafted after 1980 (vs 5 in the 1st round), eventually 4 with Tom Brady and Drew Brees, but that will be countered by Manning, Rodgers, etc. That gap is only going to grow as scouting continues to improve.

So, as far as your "guarantee," nothing is ever guaranteed. It's sad that that needs to be said. If I offered you two procedures, one with 81% survival rate and one with 48% survival rate, but cheaper (and not that much cheaper as you're still most likely missing the playoffs), you would choose the Favre 48% route? Or would you hold out for the mystical one with a guaranteed success?

 

[GOfins54]

Why did you add a question mark to “3 injury plagued seasons”? Have you been on another planet since 2016?

I think the real troll is someone who thinks Tannehill should have a salary cap number at the same level as Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in 2019. Ridiculous.

Because it hasn't been "3 injury plagued seasons", it was one missed season due to a knee injury on a cheap shot in a game he was lighting it up at the end of streak of games he was emerging as a legit top QB. you're purposely being misleading to back your football ignorant agenda then going on to say nonsense about a cap number that's actually team friendly but you'd rather have 13 million in dead money plus another what? 8-10 million for a replacement? So 13 plus 8 is 21. Saving 5 million and legitimately downgrade at the position and have to draft high in 2020 anyway?

RT17 is going to finish this contract. If he continues regressing and the offense looks like garbage, as it has continued to without him, then fire everybody for 2020, maybe mid season 2019, and go all in for an actual prospect in 2020. The problem isn't the QB. The gm, coaches, and horrible draft picks like Harris, Parker etc instead of fixing the guard and depth at tackle are what's wrong Atm. Smurf WRS too go watch the horrible throws Wilson had last week but got bailed out by WRS with catch radius bigger than a hamster.

 

[ForksPhin]

Because it hasn't been "3 injury plagued seasons", it was one missed season due to a knee injury on a cheap shot in a game he was lighting it up at the end of streak of games he was emerging as a legit top QB. you're purposely being misleading to back your football ignorant agenda then going on to say nonsense about a cap number that's actually team friendly but you'd rather have 13 million in dead money plus another what? 8-10 million for a replacement? So 13 plus 8 is 21. Saving 5 million and legitimately downgrade at the position and have to draft high in 2020 anyway?

RT17 is going to finish this contract. If he continues regressing and the offense looks like garbage, as it has continued to without him, then fire everybody for 2020, maybe mid season 2019, and go all in for an actual prospect in 2020. The problem isn't the QB. The gm, coaches, and horrible draft picks like Harris, Parker etc instead of fixing the guard and depth at tackle are what's wrong Atm. Smurf WRS too go watch the horrible throws Wilson had last week but got bailed out by WRS with catch radius bigger than a hamster.

Since you’re in attack mode with your “football ignorant” bullsh-t, I’ll just tell you that you’re delusional. My guess is that you don’t even watch Dolphins games. The fact that you’re talking about a stretch of games in 2016 where Tannehill was “emerging as legit top QB” is laughable. We’re talking about games against the Steelers and Bills, where Ajayi ran for 200+ yards, while Tannehill combined for ONE passing TD. How about the big win against the Jets where Tannehill completes 17 passes for 149 yards (let’s not forget his two INTs)? The Rams game where the Dolphins didn’t score a single point until 4 minutes were left? Or maybe the Ravens game (which I had the pleasure of attending), where Ryan was flat-out embarrassing.

So I just gave you 5 straight-up mediocre performances in this so-called stretch of “legit top QB” play (which only lasted for 7.5 games).

This narrative of top QB play from a Tannehill is a joke. It never happened.

And to call a $26M cap number “team friendly” is truly preposterous.

Then we jump right back into blaming everyone but Tannehill.

And I guess missing 3 games in 2016, 16 games in 2017, and at least 3 games in 2018 doesn’t count as big problem. You’re perfectly cool to be without your “legit top QB” at various points throughout numerous seasons.

What a joke of a response.

 

[phins_4_ever]

This guy did the same thing I did a few years ago (though for all positions). Easier than trying to find that one, so here ya go:



https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

Hall of Famers:
13 drafted in the 1st round vs 14 drafted in ALL other rounds and free agency. Only 2 of the latter were drafted after 1980 (vs 5 in the 1st round), eventually 4 with Tom Brady and Drew Brees, but that will be countered by Manning, Rodgers, etc. That gap is only going to grow as scouting continues to improve.

So, as far as your "guarantee," nothing is ever guaranteed. It's sad that that needs to be said. If I offered you two procedures, one with 81% survival rate and one with 48% survival rate, but cheaper (and not that much cheaper as you're still most likely missing the playoffs), you would choose the Favre 48% route? Or would you hold out for the mystical one with a guaranteed success?

1-16 is not "tanking".
"Tanking" means the #1 draft spot. Maybe #2.
Of course often it is in the eye of the beholder what one considers a franchise QB. But from the same website I see 5 of 15 QBs you can or I would consider franchise changing QBs which were drafted at #1 in what is considered the modern area NFL. 33%
At the #2 draft spot: 3 of 6. 50%
With the #3 spot you are out of tanking anything and you are just simply a team which was bad. But just for accuracy:
2 out of 7. 29%

If you are talking "tanking" you should have stayed with the first chart. "Tanking" a season means #1 or #2. Not #5, #6, #15 or #16.

Using win percentage is a rather iffy way of determining success with your QB at #1 draft spot. You can have many meaningless winning seasons and never get anywhere with your "franchise QB".
For me a franchise QB is a QB which changes the face of a franchise and can elevate a team to the next level. If you are a mediocre team that QB lifts you to the next level. If you are a shitty team that QB is used to build around to eventually be successful. QBs like Palmer were not worth a #1 pick. They were slightly above average QBs who were eventually dumped and picked up by other teams. These type of QBs never elevated their teams. They had a good career but never worth a #1 pick.

I am certainly done now with that stupid conspiracy crap that teams tank for the #1 spot. If you want to believe in such conspiracy be my guest. But outside of a franchise moving to another city you will not find one single owner, VP of football operation, GM and/or coach who purposely will tank a season to have that coveted #1 draft spot to draft a player which may be a failure or just another mediocre QB.

 

[BlueFin]

I've watched a ton of Easton Stick. He is not an NFL QB. There defense is just stupid good this year.

They said the same thing about Carson Wentz early on... in fact most college QB’s are obviously not NFL QB’s yet.

You can’t say he can’t make the throws... lacks the arm strength or physical skills.

The job of the NFL GM is to identify potential and make decisions.

 

[39wildman]

They said the same thing about Carson Wentz early on... in fact most college QB’s are obviously not NFL QB’s yet.

You can’t say he can’t make the throws... lacks the arm strength or physical skills.

The job of the NFL GM is to identify potential and make decisions.

you know and I know our GM are not good at making decision

 

[Csonked Out]

They said the same thing about Carson Wentz early on... in fact most college QB’s are obviously not NFL QB’s yet.

You can’t say he can’t make the throws... lacks the arm strength or physical skills.

The job of the NFL GM is to identify potential and make decisions.

The only thing Carson Wentz and Easton Stick have in common is they play QB at NDSU. Not even in the same ballpark in FM strength, decision making, or play making ability.

I've watched him for 2+ years now. Carson was just a different bread.

 

[Gonzo]

1-16 is not "tanking".
"Tanking" means the #1 draft spot. Maybe #2.
Of course often it is in the eye of the beholder what one considers a franchise QB. But from the same website I see 5 of 15 QBs you can or I would consider franchise changing QBs which were drafted at #1 in what is considered the modern area NFL. 33%
At the #2 draft spot: 3 of 6. 50%
With the #3 spot you are out of tanking anything and you are just simply a team which was bad. But just for accuracy:
2 out of 7. 29%

If you are talking "tanking" you should have stayed with the first chart. "Tanking" a season means #1 or #2. Not #5, #6, #15 or #16.

Using win percentage is a rather iffy way of determining success with your QB at #1 draft spot. You can have many meaningless winning seasons and never get anywhere with your "franchise QB".
For me a franchise QB is a QB which changes the face of a franchise and can elevate a team to the next level. If you are a mediocre team that QB lifts you to the next level. If you are a ****ty team that QB is used to build around to eventually be successful. QBs like Palmer were not worth a #1 pick. They were slightly above average QBs who were eventually dumped and picked up by other teams. These type of QBs never elevated their teams. They had a good career but never worth a #1 pick.

I am certainly done now with that stupid conspiracy crap that teams tank for the #1 spot. If you want to believe in such conspiracy be my guest. But outside of a franchise moving to another city you will not find one single owner, VP of football operation, GM and/or coach who purposely will tank a season to have that coveted #1 draft spot to draft a player which may be a failure or just another mediocre QB.

Tanking is extremely rare because there is rarely a player worth tanking for. But that wasn’t the point of my post, which was aimed (successfully) at destroying your argument that you are just as likely to land a franchise QB anywhere in the draft. Yes, you are more likely to land one in the top 16. Of those, you are more likely to land one in the top ten. Of that, you’re more likely to land one in the top 5. And so on (hopefully you now get the point that was clearly displayed in the table I provided).

Back to those HoF numbers, since apparently it needs to be broken down further, 6 of those 13 1st round HoF QBs were in the 1st 2 picks.

You have a better shot of landing a franchise QB the earlier you pick. That’s just a fact.

But don’t worry, this dumb ****ing team won’t ever take such a shot. A perennial piece of **** wasteland of mediocrity. At least you’ll get 7 or so wins to feel good about every year for the rest of your life.

 

[jacquesstrap]

Neither Tannehill or Osweiler is the answer. I would let Tannehill go, play Osweiler as a stop gap in 2019, than do everything in my power to draft Tua.