QBR Data Charts: Tannehill in "Bell Curve" group along w/ Palmer/Dalton

[SkapePhin]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-10-types-of-nfl-quarterbacks/?ex_cid=espnFB

Very interesting data set based on ESPN's QBR. It shows the range of a QB's QBR during their entire career. Tannehill's career QBR is never too high or too low, mostly between 40 and 60, thus the bell curve shape.

There is also an interactive tool that allows you to compare QBs against each other. Unfortunately there isn't a way to just look at 2014. I would have looked to see his curve this year cd their years since this is the year he made the biggest improvements.


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---------- Post added at 08:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:43 PM ----------

Here is the interactive tool: https://michaellopez.shinyapps.io/my_app/


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[SkapePhin]

Here is Tannehill's similarity chart. The program automatically finds the QBs with the most similar graphs.

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[royalshank]

Nice find. Bridgewater surprises me - I figured he only looked good against us.

 

[SkapePhin]

One thing to note about these comparisons is that QBR doesn't really account for the offense around the QB. The fact that Tannehill's chart is similar to Dalton's considering the vast difference in talent they have been surrounded by during their careers is encouraging to me. That says to me that if Tannehill were in the Bengals offense for the past 3 years his chart would look much more positive.


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[royalshank]

One thing to note about these comparisons is that QBR doesn't really account for the offense around the QB. The fact that Tannehill's chart is similar to Dalton's considering the vast difference in talent they have been surrounded by during their careers is encouraging to me. That says to me that if Tannehill were in the Bengals offense for the past 3 years his chart would look much more positive.


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i agree - good point. Last year after Dalton turned it over 5 times in the playoff loss I started a thread on here "andy Dalton sucks" - my point was he's loaded up w talent and still chokes in every big spot. After this year's uninspiring playoff performance I was tempted to resurrect the thread. How much money did they give him? Tannehill is way better.

 

[AL R]

One thing to note about these comparisons is that QBR doesn't really account for the offense around the QB. The fact that Tannehill's chart is similar to Dalton's considering the vast difference in talent they have been surrounded by during their careers is encouraging to me. That says to me that if Tannehill were in the Bengals offense for the past 3 years his chart would look much more positive.


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Agree and that is a HUGH variable, consider the way Dalton is protected vs RT17?

 

[j-off-her-doll]

My biggest beef is that they use QBR, and their QBR ratings often don't sync up to the performances in the games I've watched. These systems always overrate guys like Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan and underrate guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson - similar to PFF. I'm surprised people haven't started fires over seeing Kaepernick ranked in the 2nd-tiers.

 

[roy_miami]

Really cool way of looking at QB performance and similar to the way I try to evaluate QBs with the exception being I never look at the lower bumps.
Using those graphs as a guide QBs Tannehill is clearly better than:
Alex Smith
Bortles
Hoyer
Geno
Sanchez
Cassel
Bradford
Carr

QBs Tannehill is clearly worse than:
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Newton
Kaepernick
Brees
E. Manning
Cutler
Flacco
Matt Ryan
Schaub
Stafford
Foles
P Manning
Rivers
Bridgewater
Brady
Romo
Wilson

Unclear:
Dalton
Palmer
Manuel
Locker
Orton
Glennon

So using those graphs Tannehill should be slotted in the 19 to 25 range of starting QBs.

 

[spiketex]

I think that it's an overated measure to analyze and compare QBs. I don't like it.

 

[roy_miami]

Bridgewater is the most surprising one to me, he has looked good in the games I saw but I didn't he had a good season statistically. Cam's chart is kind of surprising too.

 

[AZStryker]

Schaub, cutler, newton, bridgewater, and foles over tannehill??? Errrrt thank you for playing. Sorry no parting gifts for you due to excessive stupidity.

 

[Carne Asada]

This is their bell curve, meaning how they did in their first 3 years. Of course Schaub, Palmer, Cutler, Dalton and bunch of other scrubs have better curves, considering they had all star supporting casts and sucked after a while.

 

[SkapePhin]

This is their bell curve, meaning how they did in their first 3 years. Of course Schaub, Palmer, Cutler, Dalton and bunch of other scrubs have better curves, considering they had all star supporting casts and sucked after a while.

No it's not just their first 3 years, it's their full career. Tannehill just has 3 years worth of data


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[J. David Wannyheimer]

QBR is stupid because it penalizes the quarterback for things like poor defensive or special teams performances. For instance, if the Dolphins' defense had stopped the Lions on their last drive, Tannehill's QBR would have been much higher than it was, even if he had done the exact same thing.

 

[Carne Asada]

No it's not just their first 3 years, it's their full career. Tannehill just has 3 years worth of data


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Yes, indeed. Thus, that comparison is made through their first three years.